byco42 said:

If the MSU O and D lines are as advertised, the score should be 55-0 by the end of the third.

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michchamp said:

Vegas, and the gambling public evidently have more doubts about Dantonio's ability to replace Narduzzi, Lippett, Mumphrey, Langford, Hill, and put together a solid secondary, than MSU's fanbase does.

they will beat WMU soundly, but without all those weapons, it probably won't be a blowout. The only way it will be is if the get some additional points from defensive or ST scores.

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Spartanmack said:

Nick Hill will not be missed and 18 pt spreads are indicative of a blowout. Looking at the top 25 there are only 7 spreads materially greater than 18. The dogs in those spreads hail from C-USA, the Sun Belt and the American Athletic Conference and most had losing records last year by a wide margin. The 3 that didn't were: BG 7-6 (5-3 in C-USA) Tx St 7-5 (5-3 in the Sun Belt) and Ark St 7-6 (5-3 in Sun Belt). Also, among the favorites are teams coached by Briles, Rich Rod, Bielema and Stoops - all notorious for running up scores.

Edit - it should be pointed out that there are 4 more top 25 games w/ no lines given the opponents are from non-FBS programs, like Appalachian State used to be. If there were spreads on those games they likely would be materially greater than 18 pts.

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tomdalton22 said:

OSU, TCU, BSU, Stanford, UCLA, Auburn, ASU, ND, Wisky & Bama all play power 5 teams. So out of 11 games, 7 have spreads over 18

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tomdalton22 said:

OSU, TCU, BSU, Stanford, UCLA, Auburn, ASU, ND, Wisky & Bama all play power 5 teams. So out of 11 games, 7 have spreads over 18

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Spartanmack said:

Does this somehow change or disprove the point that 18 points is a blowout spread and all the spreads materially higher are against far weaker opponents?

You realize wisco and Bama play each other - you can't count them twice. But why remove power 5 opponents from the total in the first place? That makes no sense. My point is that all of the spreads materially higher than the MSU/wmu spread are against weak opponents from weaker conferences. Pointing out that 9 spreads near or lower than MSU's are against power 5 conference teams doesn't change that one bit. It makes no sense.

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tomdalton22 said:

I should have said 10 teams in the top 25 are playing power 5 opponents plus the 4 non FBS opponents only leaves 11 games left where teams are playing "mid majors"

Remove the power 5 games because those are in theory good opponents...none of which would typically have a high point spread.

So, the point being, out of 11 games, 7 have point spreads over 18.

As far as weaker opponents...all of them are weak opponents.

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Spartanmack said:

Of course they are weak opponents. That's why they are blow out spreads. But all weak opponents are not equally weak. Some are far weaker than others as evidenced by the fact that most materially greater underdogs are teams that are materially inferior - even to wmu. And if you look at some of the power 5 dogs, there are some teams that are not much better than wmu, if at all like northwestern and Washington (even Texas a) yet they are getting significantly fewer points than western. Granted, the favorites in those games may not be ranked lower than MSU but that doesn't explain the entire difference in spreads. Point is, at wmu +18 the oddsmakers are predicting a Spartan blowout of the Broncos - maybe not as much of a blowout as they would if the Spartans were playing a sun belt team coming off a losing season, but a blowout nonetheless.

It's not that you shouldn't have said what you said and instead should have said what you later said. What you shouldn't have said was anything at all. You're just trying to stir up shit - again. And doing it rather poorly - again.

And even if your flawed logic weren't flawed, it's not 10 because 2 of those teams play each other. One of those 10 power 5 top 25 teams is actually an underdog. And just so we are clear, the reason you logic is flawed is because it isn't that 7 of 25 or 7 of 21 or even 7 of only 11 spreads are wider. It's that all 7 spreads that are materially wider are partially, mostly or entirely explained by the fact that the underdogs are materially weaker than WMU. The % of total is irrelevant.

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tomdalton22 said:

First, I wasn't trying to stir up shit. I said I was surprised that the #5 team in the country was only an 18 point favorite vs. a MAC team. Then one of the MSU fans said that WMU was the favorite to win the MAC. I pointed out that they weren't in fact the favorite but picked to finish in the top 4. Then you decided to spew some garbage about a bunch of point spreads being over 18 but those opponents are worse than WMU. So I pointed out that there are only 11 games with power 5 teams vs mid majors and 7 have point spreads over 18. How is that not relevant? Those are the only games similar to the MSU game vs WMU? Ranked power 5 vs other power 5 are not relevant. Ranked vs ranked are not relevant. Ranked vs. non FBS are not relevant. That leaves 11 games.

For the record I said I think that MSU should beat WMU by more than 3 TDs 8 out of 10 times. I will bet the game and give the points.

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Spartanmack said:

you're much less likely to see big spreads as you go further down the rankings.

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tbone413 said:

WMU Alum here - am pissed I wont be able to make it to Kzoo today. I heard the place has just been bonkers all week. There will be some heavy drinking there today haha.

That being said, I am hoping for a competetive game, but for MSU to win. I am a Bronco through and through, but MSU has a chance to have a special season this year, and Western can still lose this game and make a bowl game/win double digit games.


On a side note - where the hell can I get some Row The Boat swag? My initials are RTB, and while I actually cant stand that slogan - Id love to get some RTB WMU gear...but their online bookstore doesnt sell shit!

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tomdalton22 said:

exactly! That is why I thought the #5 team in the country would have a spread more than 18....regardless if the MAC team is supposed to be a little better than other mid majors. TN is favored by 21 vs BG and TN is ranked 25th. I understand that BG is going to TN but it's not like MSU is going into hostile territory. My guess is there will be an equal number of MSU fans as WMU fans at the game.

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boogerlovejoy said:

Damn it Spartanmack.....you're making me agree with Tom twice in one week.

It IS surprising that the spread is what it is. However, I think the reason for that has to do with WMU getting a lot of love because of Fleck and MSU having a number of unknowns at this point (how will the D look without Narduzzi, the secondary, Davis going down, Williams suspension, WR's).

Nothing wrong with this......it's a Vegas point spread.....not an assessment of the MSU program. All the Spartans have to do is come out and stomp the Broncos and all will be well. If they don't do that.....and the game is closer than expected......then the spread was justified.

It's all in our hands.......just gotta take care of business.

Like it or not.....the spread is surprising for a top 5 team vs. Western Michigan.

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