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Avila should focus most of his resources into the minor system after this offseason.

It is pointless to discuss anything with you. You fundamentally do not understand baseball statistics. You fail to see the similarities in the Phillies plight and how it correlates to where Detroit is at. And you tend to bloviate, which looses my interest.

First, you fail to see anything not numbers based as logical and therefore it is pointless to discuss this with you. (Two can pay at that game.)
Second, only a fool thinks they know what someone understands based on posts they make on the internet about something that they have on several occasions professed a limited amount of interest in. That in mind I'll continue. If it makes you feel good to say shit like that fine, but it is bs.
Third, no, I recognize the similarities between the Tigers and Phillies, but the differences are far greater than those similarities. (It isn't that complicated.)

So look, I'm right you're wrong insulting my intelligence while promoting yours doesn't change that.
I said that I'd said my peace on this already and that I didn't want to talk about it anymore so I'm going to SHOUT NOW:
THE TIGERS HAVE TWICE THE FREAKING PAYROLL OF THE PHILLIES!
That irrefutable fact alone proves my point.

THEY'VE HAD THE SAME OWNER FOR DECADES AND OWNING A WINNING SPORTS FRANCHISES IS SOMETHING HE KNOWS HOW TO DO.
Also, another irrefutable fact that almost makes my case by itself.

HE HAS A CRAP TON MORE MONEY THAN THE PHILLIES OWNERSHIP MUSICAL CHAIRS COMMITTEE,
Irrefutable based on my research.

THE DETROIT BASEBALL MARKET IS NOT THE PHILADELPHIA BASEBALL MARKET,
Seems to be pretty obviously true, but maybe I'm wrong.

AND FINALLY MIGUEL CABRERA IS BETTER THAN ANY PLAYER THE PHILLIES HAVE LITERALLY EVERY HAD IN 133 YEARS!
Clearly I'm biased but this seems pretty solid.

AND JV IS BETTER THAN ANY PITCHER THE PHILLIES HAVE HAD SINCE CURT SCHILLING (AND I'D TAKE JV OVER CURT, BUT I DON'T LIKE THAT BIG MOUTH IDIOT AND NEVER HAVE).
Also, pretty solid.

These statements are true and factual, perhaps the details can be quibbled with, but in the main these are what separates the Tigers fate from the Phillies.

Prove me wrong or stfu about it. THAT SHOULD BE REALLY EASY TO DONE, even without getting into demography--if, that is, I'm wrong.
But better would be to ask yourself why, despite the logic and facts here you're so sure I'm wrong?
Calling me stupid in a veiled way is not going to get'er done. You clearly have a bias here, as do i, but I also am committed to good reasoning in a fairly serious way, and I happen to be right here.
 
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First, you fail to see anything not numbers based as logical and therefore it is pointless to discuss this with you. (Two can pay at that game.)
Second, only a fool thinks they know what someone understands based on posts they make on the internet about something that they have on several occasions professed a limited amount of interest in. That in mind I'll continue. If it makes you feel good to say shit like that fine, but it is bs.
Third, no, I recognize the similarities between the Tigers and Phillies, but the differences are far greater than those similarities. (It isn't that complicated.)

So look, I'm right you're wrong insulting my intelligence while promoting yours doesn't change that.
I said that I'd said my peace on this already and that I didn't want to talk about it anymore so I'm going to SHOUT NOW:
THE TIGERS HAVE TWICE THE FREAKING PAYROLL OF THE PHILLIES!
That irrefutable fact alone proves my point.

THEY'VE HAD THE SAME OWNER FOR DECADES AND OWNING A WINNING SPORTS FRANCHISES IS SOMETHING HE KNOWS HOW TO DO.
Also, another irrefutable fact that almost makes my case by itself.

HE HAS A CRAP TON MORE MONEY THAN THE PHILLIES OWNERSHIP MUSICAL CHAIRS COMMITTEE,
Irrefutable based on my research.

THE DETROIT BASEBALL MARKET IS NOT THE PHILADELPHIA BASEBALL MARKET,
Seems to be pretty obviously true, but maybe I'm wrong.

AND FINALLY MIGUEL CABRERA IS BETTER THAN ANY PLAYER THE PHILLIES HAVE LITERALLY EVERY HAD IN 133 YEARS!
Clearly I'm biased but this seems pretty solid.

AND JV IS BETTER THAN ANY PITCHER THE PHILLIES HAVE HAD SINCE CURT SCHILLING (AND I'D TAKE JV OVER CURT, BUT I DON'T LIKE THAT BIG MOUTH IDIOT AND NEVER HAVE).
Also, pretty solid.

These statements are true and factual, perhaps the details can be quibbled with, but in the main these are what separates the Tigers fate from the Phillies.

Prove me wrong or stfu about it. THAT SHOULD BE REALLY EASY TO DONE, even without getting into demography--if, that is, I'm wrong.
But better would be to ask yourself why, despite the logic and facts here you're so sure I'm wrong?
Calling me stupid in a veiled way is not going to get'er done. You clearly have a bias here, as do i, but I also am committed to good reasoning in a fairly serious way, and I happen to be right here.

Yawn
 
How'd that turn out for the Tigers last year? Last place in the AL central.

He doesn't see it. He thinks you can spend your way into being competitive.

We weren't talking about the 2015 Phillies ending payroll. They shed at lot of payroll over the last year or so.

It is the fact they were in the playoffs from 2007-2011, all while maintaining a high payroll and negative operating income. In 2012, when they still had $170+ Mil payroll and finished 81-81, the issue compounded itself. The 2012 team was plagued with injuries, due to stars getting older (Howard, Utley, Rollins, Polanco, Victorino, Lee, Halladay). Both Lee and Halladay were Cy Young pitchers. Hamels and Oswalt were also on the 2011 team.

Phillies Attendance
2011 = 3.68 Mil
2012 = 3.57 Mil
2013 = 3.01 Mil
2014 = 2.42 Mil
2015 = 1.83 Mil

Phillies Opening Day Payroll Rankings
2011 = 2nd
2012 = 2nd
2013 = 3rd
2014 = 4th
2015 = 9th

The Phillies were spending the money. And guess what....they weren't winning. The roster was straddled with high priced long term contracts for older players either underperforming or having injuries. Maybe it is me, but it sounds familiar to the route DET is taking.
 
How'd that turn out for the Tigers last year? Last place in the AL central.

It is baseball.
3 times the payroll doesn't save a team from injuries: 3 of the Tigers 7 best players (JV, V-Mart, Miggy, JD, Kins, Cespi, Price) were on the DL for extended stretches, one of them was essentially never healthy, and then two of the healthy ones were shipped at the trade deadline.
LAST YEAR WAS ONE FREAKING YEAR!
If the Tigers fall of the cliff this year too, then you can start to point to the similarities with Phillies but to do so without noting the differences is the definition of illogical.

And Rebbiv, YOU brought this up, after I'd said I was done. Then you reply with YAWN? What is your problem? Oh, I know, I'm a "simpleton" compared to you,
but somehow you can't refute my points.
 
In 2015, $73 Mil was allocated to just 3 players. Howard, Hamels and Cliff Lee. Howard's $25 Mil for 2016 is the last remaining high priced contract.

Phillies just signed a 25-year television agreement with Comcast SportsNet Philadelphia that starts with the 2016 season and is worth more than $5 billion. The team will own 25% of the RSN.

Detroit? The attendance figures has gone down the last two years and viewership for Fox Sports Detroit games has also declined. The contract with FS Detroit runs through 2017 and the Tigers get $50 Mil a year from them.

http://www.blessyouboys.com/2015/8/10/9124101/detroit-tigers-attendance-television-ratings

Last paragraph:

We are not likely to be made aware of any television contract negotiations or terms until a new deal is announced. What we do know is that advertisers pay for viewers, and the Tigers need to maintain high ratings in order to maximize their leverage when working out a new local television contract. This is something that has to be considered when one sees big salaries being paid to players. A couple million dollars spent on a bullpen that is blowing games on a regular basis would seem to be a wise investment.
 
It is baseball.
3 times the payroll doesn't save a team from injuries: 3 of the Tigers 7 best players (JV, V-Mart, Miggy, JD, Kins, Cespi, Price) were on the DL for extended stretches, one of them was essentially never healthy, and then two of the healthy ones were shipped at the trade deadline.
LAST YEAR WAS ONE FREAKING YEAR!
If the Tigers fall of the cliff this year too, then you can start to point to the similarities with Phillies but to do so without noting the differences is the definition of illogical.

And Rebbiv, YOU brought this up, after I'd said I was done. Then you reply with YAWN? What is your problem? Oh, I know, I'm a "simpleton" compared to you,
but somehow you can't refute my points.

No, it is you. You have yet to respond to pointed questions I asked a while back. Instead, you continue to cite subjective positions and make light of objective data.

If you were a brain surgeon, I would go to the person that stayed at a Holiday Inn Express instead.

Look Mom, I can use bold. I CAN EVEN TYPE IN CAPS.
 
He doesn't see it. He thinks you can spend your way into being competitive.

We weren't talking about the 2015 Phillies ending payroll. They shed at lot of payroll over the last year or so.

It is the fact they were in the playoffs from 2007-2011, all while maintaining a high payroll and negative operating income. In 2012, when they still had $170+ Mil payroll and finished 81-81, the issue compounded itself. The 2012 team was plagued with injuries, due to stars getting older (Howard, Utley, Rollins, Polanco, Victorino, Lee, Halladay). Both Lee and Halladay were Cy Young pitchers. Hamels and Oswalt were also on the 2011 team.

Phillies Attendance
2011 = 3.68 Mil
2012 = 3.57 Mil
2013 = 3.01 Mil
2014 = 2.42 Mil
2015 = 1.83 Mil

Phillies Opening Day Payroll Rankings
2011 = 2nd
2012 = 2nd
2013 = 3rd
2014 = 4th
2015 = 9th

The Phillies were spending the money. And guess what....they weren't winning. The roster was straddled with high priced long term contracts for older players either underperforming or having injuries. Maybe it is me, but it sounds familiar to the route DET is taking.


There you go.

But the Tigers are winning. Last year was one year. I agree, btw, that a team cannot buy a title.

So, I don't think that Payroll turn will be the Tigers as long as Mike Ilitch owns the team--but maybe this latest move was just to protect the TV deal in 2 years.

Regarding attendance, again, the Phillies have competition to pull those fans away. The thing is that all those mid-eastern-seaboard teams are within a few hours of each other. The Tigers have ONE team within 3 hours drive, the other teams are 5 hours or so away. The Phillies have the Os, Nats within an hourish and an 1.5-2 hours hours or so, and there is mass transit between those cities--it is really easy to hop on a train in Philadelphia and go to a Os, Nats, or even Mets game, it means a bit of a late night, but not that late and depending where you live might be about the same difference in travel time.

Lee and Halladay, meh, Gold Gloves don't really impress me and I'm only so impressed with Cy Youngs.
Next, the Tigers roster is on the surface similar to the Phillies, but not the same. It is better constructed. Really the Tigers have just two longterm contracts to older players (Miggy and JV) and then a few bigger contracts with aging players Sanchez, Kinsler and V-Mart.
That is it.
5 players, only 2 of them signed past a few years, one of them, Miggy, is so good that not fully healthy he has still been one of the best hitters in the game.
JV's showed that he will be back and his injury wasn't age, it was just one of those things that happen in sports, a freak injury (I actually blame the Tigers physical training staff).
Kinsler has been great, Sanchez had one bad year, but has slipped and is probably over paid, Victor was just a bad contract but Ilitch has made up for it.
The Tigers other two long term contracts are 30 and 28.

But, the Tigers could be in Phillies-style trouble if 3 of the following things happen and will be if 4 or more happen, if 2 things happen the team will be at best competitive unless a young player or two breaks out or Brad Ausmus becomes a baseball genius.

  1. If V-Mart is over and doesn't retire (probably not, but possibly in the next years)
  2. If Sanchez is done (unlikely before the end of his contract but... he is getting fragile and is clearly declining)
  3. If Zimmermann does not work out (unlikely but it could happen)
  4. If Upton fizzles (very unlikely, but...)
  5. If Miggy continues to be hurt and struggles (despite the stat-wisdom that says otherwise, he is due for a stretch of health I think).
  6. If JV never returns to anything resembling ace level (he seemed to put this to bed last year, but maybe MLB hitters will study up on the new JV and crush him)
  7. If Kinsler finally breaks down (this seems really unlikely)
Now lots of other things can happen (Castellanos, Maybin, and McCann compete for the most errors in MLB baseball and fail to hit the ball) that would mean the Tigers suck next year, but if those things that happen are not 3 or more of these things listed above, that doesn't mean Phillies.


I see why people have been Philly-ish about the Tigers, but they are jumping the gun a bit and missing some relevant factors.
 
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How'd that turn out for the Tigers last year? Last place in the AL central.


FYI

2015 Opening Payroll

DET $172.8 Mil
PHI $146.9 Mil

2015 40-man year end

DET $164.0 Mil
PHI $145.7 Mil


So the payrolls were actually quite close, all things considering and hardly twice.
 
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No, it is you. You have yet to respond to pointed questions I asked a while back. Instead, you continue to cite subjective positions and make light of objective data.

If you were a brain surgeon, I would go to the person that stayed at a Holiday Inn Express instead.

Look Mom, I can use bold. I CAN EVEN TYPE IN CAPS.

Uh, I said why I was typing in caps. You are pulling the, I-don't-want-to-let-you-stop-talking-about-this-even-though-you-said-you-were-done game.

I'd went around and around about it with several people, finally saying I was done. Instead of respecting that and agreeing to disagree, you brought it up again in an insult. You are an insulting person. You are dismissive and rude.

I'm done with this. Assuage your ego with your veiled insults and waste time in another way or with someone else.
 
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FYI

2015 Opening Payroll

DET $172.8 Mil
PHI $146.9 Mil

2015 40-man year end

DET $164.0 Mil
PHI $145.7 Mil


So the payrolls were actually quite close, all things considering and hardly twice.

Currently BR has them at $100mil and $200mil ish.

As for at the end of 2015, if the Tigers had kept Price and Cespedes and Soria, I think they might have squeaked into the playoffs, then who knows.

We'll see what this year brings. If this year is a bad year, you can crow about being right having seen the signs of decline, and how the Phillies represent an immutable law of baseball and physics.

But from where I sit I see a couple situations with some similarities but also significant differences.


Anyway, next time don't be disrespectful of others and you'll be able to have a healthy debate with another smart person. But for now, I've got stuff to do.
So keep your need to insult others to yourself and I'm not going to explain what your dislike of your mother means cause while I did stay at a Holiday in I'm not a therapist.

The brain surgeon crack was half-a Ben Carson joke.
 
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And another thread goes ...
 
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And another thread goes ...

Because Rebbiv is a pompous asshole who gets insanely butthurt everytime he gets proven wrong ...which is time and time again .

I also find it funny how so many fans who have no clue about anything , whenever there are older players on teams with high salaries they bust out the " this teams gonna be like the Phillies " bs . No matter what the situation is , just because a team has older stars with high salaries , they are automatically gonna be the phillies , no ifs ands or butts about it , its written in stone and theres no exceptions , ever.
 
Currently BR has them at $100mil and $200mil ish.

As for at the end of 2015, if the Tigers had kept Price and Cespedes and Soria, I think they might have squeaked into the playoffs, then who knows.

We'll see what this year brings. If this year is a bad year, you can crow about being right having seen the signs of decline, and how the Phillies represent an immutable law of baseball and physics.

But from where I sit I see a couple situations with some similarities but also significant differences.


Anyway, next time don't be disrespectful of others and you'll be able to have a healthy debate with another smart person. But for now, I've got stuff to do.
So keep your need to insult others to yourself and I'm not going to explain what your dislike of your mother means cause while I did stay at a Holiday in I'm not a therapist.

The brain surgeon crack was half-a Ben Carson joke.


BR data is the 2016 estimated payroll. And they post a disclaimer at the bottom of each team payroll page.

Currently, PHI is at $101.5 MIL and DET is at $198.5 MIL (BR data).


Cots (now run by Baseball Prospectus) is generally where everyone gets their payroll data.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/american-league/detroit-tigers/

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10h92FvF-Fh7ft0J6m3KIKiYEKVxLVAebX_F7PRW-rzo/pub?output=html

Cots for DET is $191.5 MIL for 17 players and they already are committed to $176.2 for just 10 players in 2017.


http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league/philadelphia-phillies/

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TpCRcEwHipoUb6WY5MA_lZzNfL8-OFu-TQeZQV6yhuU/pub?output=html

Cots for PHI is $77.1 MIL for 10 players and they have just $24.7 MIL committed to 1 player in 2017.


From 2007-2011 (5 years), when the Phillies were at the top in payroll and making all the playoffs, they averaged $13.1 MIL a year in Operating Income.

http://www.forbes.com/teams/philadelphia-phillies/

In the last 5 years (2011-2015), the Tigers have also been near the top in payroll and been to the playoffs 4 of those 5 years, they averaged -$6.9 MIL a year in Operating Income (-$12.9 MIL average over the last 7).

http://www.forbes.com/teams/detroit-tigers/

DET is expected between $20-25 Mil more than 2015 in Opening Day Payroll for just 25 men. The Competitive Balance Tax is based on the final 40-man roster payroll and any amounts paid to former players during the season (i.e. pro-rated for Price, Cespedes and Soria).
 
BR data is the 2016 estimated payroll. And they post a disclaimer at the bottom of each team payroll page.

Currently, PHI is at $101.5 MIL and DET is at $198.5 MIL (BR data).


Cots (now run by Baseball Prospectus) is generally where everyone gets their payroll data.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/american-league/detroit-tigers/

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10h92FvF-Fh7ft0J6m3KIKiYEKVxLVAebX_F7PRW-rzo/pub?output=html

Cots for DET is $191.5 MIL for 17 players and they already are committed to $176.2 for just 10 players in 2017.


http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league/philadelphia-phillies/

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TpCRcEwHipoUb6WY5MA_lZzNfL8-OFu-TQeZQV6yhuU/pub?output=html

Cots for PHI is $77.1 MIL for 10 players and they have just $24.7 MIL committed to 1 player in 2017.


From 2007-2011 (5 years), when the Phillies were at the top in payroll and making all the playoffs, they averaged $13.1 MIL a year in Operating Income.

http://www.forbes.com/teams/philadelphia-phillies/

In the last 5 years (2011-2015), the Tigers have also been near the top in payroll and been to the playoffs 4 of those 5 years, they averaged -$6.9 MIL a year in Operating Income (-$12.9 MIL average over the last 7).

http://www.forbes.com/teams/detroit-tigers/

DET is expected between $20-25 Mil more than 2015 in Opening Day Payroll for just 25 men. The Competitive Balance Tax is based on the final 40-man roster payroll and any amounts paid to former players during the season (i.e. pro-rated for Price, Cespedes and Soria).

This is like watching hughes and LKP on the Lion's board.
 
BR data is the 2016 estimated payroll. And they post a disclaimer at the bottom of each team payroll page.

Currently, PHI is at $101.5 MIL and DET is at $198.5 MIL (BR data).


Cots (now run by Baseball Prospectus) is generally where everyone gets their payroll data.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/american-league/detroit-tigers/

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10h92FvF-Fh7ft0J6m3KIKiYEKVxLVAebX_F7PRW-rzo/pub?output=html

Cots for DET is $191.5 MIL for 17 players and they already are committed to $176.2 for just 10 players in 2017.


http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league/philadelphia-phillies/

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TpCRcEwHipoUb6WY5MA_lZzNfL8-OFu-TQeZQV6yhuU/pub?output=html

Cots for PHI is $77.1 MIL for 10 players and they have just $24.7 MIL committed to 1 player in 2017.


From 2007-2011 (5 years), when the Phillies were at the top in payroll and making all the playoffs, they averaged $13.1 MIL a year in Operating Income.

http://www.forbes.com/teams/philadelphia-phillies/

In the last 5 years (2011-2015), the Tigers have also been near the top in payroll and been to the playoffs 4 of those 5 years, they averaged -$6.9 MIL a year in Operating Income (-$12.9 MIL average over the last 7).

http://www.forbes.com/teams/detroit-tigers/

DET is expected between $20-25 Mil more than 2015 in Opening Day Payroll for just 25 men. The Competitive Balance Tax is based on the final 40-man roster payroll and any amounts paid to former players during the season (i.e. pro-rated for Price, Cespedes and Soria).

Doesn't change the fact that the Phillies stopped spending a couple of years ago and didn't spend as aggressively or as well last year.

Doesn't change the fact that the Phillies talent isn't equal to Detroit's talent.

Doesn't make the contract situations the exact same. They are not.

Doesn't make the Phillies ownership the equal, either in wealth or sports franchise ownership experience.

Doesn't make the Phillies and Tigers baseball market's the same enough to not alter their fates.

You are quibbling with details, as I said you would be able to do. The core facts remain unperturbed by all your efforts.
The Phillies are NOT going to field a $200mil ball club this year. The Tigers are, and they probably will do so again next year, in fact, it will probably be a little to a lot higher payroll.

The Tigers are not the Phillies, they could go the way of the Phillies and under Dombrowski I think that they might have, but Avila seems to have a more modest, wiser, and calculated approach than his former boss.


Look, it is foolish to argue this.

I agree, it is possible that the Tigers could go the way of the Phillies, I think that there are enough clear and fundamental differences between the two franchises and their situations that will mean that the Tigers fate is not the Phillies. I think anyone who looks at the situation objectively can see that is true. They might still think the Tigers will go that route but only a fool says that the will go one way or the other. I think that it is likely that they won't.
That is all.

I mean, if for no other reason that Mike Ilitch could throw away $150mil on the team ever year until Miggy and JV retire and he would STILL make money on the team as it increased in value.

The Phillies value has flatlined, the Tigers value continues to climb, it will jump (if all goes to plan) after the next TV deal. This will allow Ilitch to "lose" more money on the team and still make money in team value.

You are talking out your ass pal (and so was Buster Olney), you know it and I know it.

You are nibbling at the edges, but the core truths remain. You'd be on much sounder ground if you admitted that you are not Nostra-funking-damus, and that while you think they might go the Phillies way, you do admit that you don't know and maybe I'm right, cause Mike Ilitch is an owner with experience building a winning organization and he does have deeper pockets than the folks who own the Phillies (whoever that is now and who ever it will be), the Tigers contracts are not as bad as the Phillies were, and Miggy is probably better than any Phillies player ever, the Detroit baseball market is not the Philadelphia baseball market, and shit happens.

But instead you keep posting from this crazy fantasy/fetish place of believing that numbers mean you can see into the future, and with this pig headed refusal to admit that someone other than you might be right.

What does someone have to do, answer you in numbers for you to concede to any point? That is idiotic.

What if those of use who prefer not to think about the game too much through the numbers did that?

Cheese and rice!

ENOUGH.

At the end of the day unless we sit down and talk to Mike Ilitch not you nor I know. He could get frustrated and go nuts next year. Take the salary up to $400m. Most didn't think he'd go over the cap this year, nobody thought that he'd go up to $200m (which, in terms of the CBT, he is at like $207m last I added it up).

I do not think that the Tigers salary situation is as dire as all that. Their players are better, and really, if Mike Ilitch hadn't fan-boyed out over V-Marts 2014 and been a loyal boss and instead gave him a market value salary we probably wouldn't really be talking about this (but that $18mil for a 35+ DH, ex-catcher with bad knees just reeks of ... the Phillies).
 
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A final word, what is the difference between a .298 BA and a .288 in terms of actually baseball impact (wins loses, hits, etc in a season)?

I used to know some parts of the answer, but I don't remember and don't care enough to look it up because I know it is so small that it doesn't really matter that much.
Of course BA is an overrated stat, blah, blah, blah, we all know that and have known it for decades.

As for your "Cots" sources, yes these are the best sources but for my purposes, off the top of my had with a glance at BR to refresh my memoir is sufficient.

You want to be accurate to within a pubic hair, great. When it actually makes a difference, so will I.
 
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Tom the second part was the actual question.
Mitch, that is a disturbing image for some reason.
Rebbiv when you reply, you're right, you win. I am an idiot, I'm off to find a Russian novelist to describe me to the world.:ugh::ugh::cheers::tup::clap::nuts::shrug::ugh::ugh:

See what I mean?
 
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