Indiana & Penn State

Michchamp · Oct 10, 2017

unlike some whiny chicken littles, or sparties who only decided to show up and thump their scrawny chests AFTER their team eeked out a win, I don't think the sky is falling. However, I do think we could lose three in a row if we don't get our offense - specifically our fucking playcalling - figured out.

check out Sagarin's ratings:

#4 Penn State rated 94.03 w/SOS of 51
#17 Michigan 85.73 w/SOS of 32
#43 Indiana 75.61 w/SOS of 22

the home advantage is just under 2 pts, so that puts IU within two scores. more sloppy offense on the road could be a disaster. if we don't get our offense & playcalling figured out, we'll struggle mightily with IU, and probably get absolutely destroyed by Penn State.

after that we get a break with home games against Rutgers and Minnesota before the second of two back-to-back road sequences.

I do think we get things sorted out though. I don't see Harbaugh losing control of his own staff. If we go 1-1 in the next two weeks, that's 5-2 overall, with two likely wins coming up. not horrible, but looking at it objectively given the talent we lost, no one outside the Program & fanbase was expecting much more than that. Hell, if we somehow upset PennState... everything is forgiven, right? the "shine" will return.

interestingly Sagarin's predictor has us finishing the season up (slightly) and MSU moving down. of course, I could be wrong, but I see that happening as well. statistical aberrations (like -5 turnover margins) are just that. things revert back to the norm over time, sometimes faster than expected.

byco42 · Oct 10, 2017

Does Sagarin account for that the right side of the OL is as porous as the right side of the Titanic?

thewolverines24 · Oct 10, 2017

byco42 said:
Does Sagarin account for that the right side of the OL is as porous as the right side of the Titanic?

The entire o-line sucks. The right side is just the worst part of it.

It's up to the defense this weekend. Hopefully they can force some turnovers and maybe even get a score. A special teams score would work as well.

IU has a good defense, so I have no confidence in the offense doing anything. IU's secondary isn't great, so in theory we should be able to throw on them. Too bad our passing game is completely disjointed and the o-line destroys any chance of O'Korn having over 2 seconds to go through progressions.

biggunsbob · Oct 10, 2017

Yeah I'm worried that a 3 or 4 loss sesson or more is possible. I just have no confidence in our offense. I think both msu and Michigan have losses on the schedule coming up. How either manages those will be interesting. I just wish Jim had started Peters, Sooner or later you have to try and develop a young qb. You can't wait until the defense is all seniors and start a freshman or sophomore. Let someone grow, I hope Christian McCaffrey blows guys away in spring ball next year.

Michchamp · Oct 10, 2017

byco42 said:
Does Sagarin account for that the right side of the OL is as porous as the right side of the Titanic?

no, but in theory, the coaches can, and can call plays that either minimize the risk the weak link poses or move away from it. losing - especially to a really annoying rival - is a powerful motivator.

biggunsbob · Oct 10, 2017

thewolverines24 said:
The entire o-line sucks. The right side is just the worst part of it.

It's up to the defense this weekend. Hopefully they can force some turnovers and maybe even get a score. A special teams score would work as well.

IU has a good defense, so I have no confidence in the offense doing anything. IU's secondary isn't great, so in theory we should be able to throw on them. Too bad our passing game is completely disjointed and the o-line destroys any chance of O'Korn having over 2 seconds to go through progressions.

Solve this by throwing the ball faster . Just stop taking forever. I hope we get a look a Peters this week. I also worry there will be a hangover after losing another close game to a rival. Hope they are ready. Msu was and we were not when the game started and the weather hit. After Isaac's fumble the defense folded for 2 drives before it woke up again.

Michchamp · Oct 10, 2017

thewolverines24 said:
The entire o-line sucks. The right side is just the worst part of it.

It's up to the defense this weekend. Hopefully they can force some turnovers and maybe even get a score. A special teams score would work as well.

IU has a good defense, so I have no confidence in the offense doing anything. IU's secondary isn't great, so in theory we should be able to throw on them. Too bad our passing game is completely disjointed and the o-line destroys any chance of O'Korn having over 2 seconds to go through progressions.

rely on the run. throw a few quick slants, TE screens, WR screens. if nothing is there, throw it into the 4th row and punt.

biggunsbob · Oct 10, 2017

michchamp said:
no, but in theory, the coaches can, and can call plays that either minimize the risk the weak link poses or move away from it. losing - especially to a really annoying rival - is a powerful motivator.

We need alot better play calling this year with that offense .

byco42 · Oct 10, 2017

michchamp said:
no, but in theory, the coaches can, and can call plays that either minimize the risk the weak link poses or move away from it. losing - especially to a really annoying rival - is a powerful motivator.

OB sneaks can nullify a bad OL.

Michchamp · Oct 10, 2017

biggunsbob said:
Solve this by throwing the ball faster . Just stop taking forever. I hope we get a look a Peters this week. I also worry there will be a hangover after losing another close game to a rival. Hope they are ready. Msu was and we were not when the weather hit.

the long developing pass plays last weekend were so frustrating.

the worst was that 3rd and 9, in the 1st half, which led to O'Korn taking a ~20 yard sack that knocked us out of FG range.

I could be wrong (I only saw one replay) but it looked to me like we ran 4 wide, 4 deep routes. all covered. when they showed the replay from behind the line of scrimmage, there wasn't really anything O'Korn could've done, except get sacked earlier for less of a loss. no check down, nothing underneath.

I assume neither O'Korn, or Speight are designing and calling these pass plays. that's just poor coaching. I guess if we had the 2016 New England Patriots OL, the could hold their blocks indefinitely, and eventually someone would get open.

thewolverines24 · Oct 10, 2017

Chris Evans should be used like the Pats use James White. White is always involved in the pass game and has 29 receptions through five games. The Pats do that to take some pressure off Brady because their o-line sucks as well. Brady always has White or another RB as a safety valve that can get him 4- 6 yards. If they make a guy miss, it can be a bigger gain. The fact that Evans only has three receptions in five games is infuriating.

thewolverines24 · Oct 10, 2017

michchamp said:
the long developing pass plays last weekend were so frustrating.

the worst was that 3rd and 9, in the 1st half, which led to O'Korn taking a ~20 yard sack that knocked us out of FG range.

I could be wrong (I only saw one replay) but it looked to me like we ran 4 wide, 4 deep routes. when they showed the replay from behind the line of scrimmage, there wasn't really anything O'Korn could've done, except get sacked earlier for less of a loss. no check down, nothing underneath.

I assume neither O'Korn, or Speight are designing and calling these pass plays. that's just poor coaching.

My buddy who played college QB consistently noticed that we never had a safety valve for O'Korn. Multiple times he saw that every WR/TE was at least 12 yards down field. Nowhere to go if the protection broke down.

biggunsbob · Oct 10, 2017

michchamp said:
the long developing pass plays last weekend were so frustrating.

the worst was that 3rd and 9, in the 1st half, which led to O'Korn taking a ~20 yard sack that knocked us out of FG range.

I could be wrong (I only saw one replay) but it looked to me like we ran 4 wide, 4 deep routes. when they showed the replay from behind the line of scrimmage, there wasn't really anything O'Korn could've done, except get sacked earlier for less of a loss. no check down, nothing underneath.

I assume neither O'Korn, or Speight are designing and calling these pass plays. that's just poor coaching.

Yup I agree totally. It was So Frustrating To watch.

biggunsbob · Oct 10, 2017

thewolverines24 said:
Chris Evans should be used like the Pats use James White. White is always involved in the pass game and has 29 receptions through five games. The Pats do that to take some pressure off Brady because their o-line sucks as well. Brady always has White or another RB as a safety valve that can get him 4- 6 yards. If they make a guy miss, it can be a bigger gain. The fact that Evans only has three receptions in five games is infuriating.

I agree we so use Evans wrong. Another frustrating waste of talent this year.

biggunsbob · Oct 10, 2017

thewolverines24 said:
My buddy who played college QB consistently noticed that we never had a safety valve for O'Korn. Multiple times he saw that every WR/TE was at least 12 yards down field. Nowhere to go if the protection broke down.

Yeah I was wonder that as I watched the game. It was maddening that we hardly throw to the backs. Also with o'Korn I thought some qb draws could have worked a few times early. The offense is so vanilla and bad it's not funny anymore, and I am really worried about this indiana game. Defense may need to pitch a shutout for us to win .

Michchamp · Oct 10, 2017

thewolverines24 said:
My buddy who played college QB consistently noticed that we never had a safety valve for O'Korn. Multiple times he saw that every WR/TE was at least 12 yards down field. Nowhere to go if the protection broke down.

and it was the same for Speight! two/three routes, nothing crossing... nothing quick underneath.

whoever is designing these seems to think we have Tom Brady and one of those vintage Pats' OLs that play like a brick wall. but even then, like you said in the other post, whatever #1 RB is on their roster that year is around to catch short passes to gain some yards. or MORE yards if he can beat the coverage underneath.

thewolverines24 · Oct 10, 2017

michchamp said:
and it was the same for Speight! two/three routes, nothing crossing... nothing quick underneath.

whoever is designing these seems to think we have Tom Brady and one of those vintage Pats' OLs that play like a brick wall. but even then, like you said in the other post, whatever #1 RB is on their roster that year is around to catch short passes to gain some yards. or MORE yards if he can beat the coverage underneath.

Exactly. I have no idea what in the hell this passing game is supposed to be. Kind of reminds me of the shitty offense the Colts ran that got Andrew Luck killed.

UMRules06 · Oct 10, 2017

Indiana is going to be another tight one. They have played us close in recent history, and like people are saying I'm not sure our offense can hang with them sadly. Would be really nice to stick with the run for a change. Play a possession/keep away strategy, and hope to get just enough points to win.

As far as Penn State goes, that's a pipe dream at this moment in time. 3 or 4 losses seems inevitable.

Michchamp · Oct 10, 2017

thewolverines24 said:
Exactly. I have no idea what in the hell this passing game is supposed to be. Kind of reminds me of the shitty offense the Colts ran that got Andrew Luck killed.

it's apparently designed by the same guy, right? nice work, Pep.

thewolverines24 · Oct 10, 2017

michchamp said:
it's apparently designed by the same guy, right? nice work, Pep.

Yeah, I kind of spaced that. We definitely miss Fisch.

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