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two lines of thought during PennSt week

Michchamp

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 4, 2011
Messages
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1) we are just not a very good football team. we'll finish 8-4 or maybe 9-3 if we can steal one from PSU/UW/OSU. our wins were not impressive at all; we barely beat a lot of teams that have gotten killed by mid-majors since then, and while our defense will keep us in games, our offense is either poorly coached/lacks talent/or both, and we won't be able to score enough to win when we play solid opponents. if we get a favorable bowl matchup, maybe we'll finish 9-4 or 10-3. if we weren't such diehard fans, we'd see all this clearly.

2) we're fine. the MSU result stung because of the rivalry factor, but it was more bad luck than anything else. if we can focus on running the ball, limiting turnovers, and occasionally completing a 3rd down pass, we'll be ok. We can win out and hope MSU drops at least two. The offensive mix we used against IU was a welcome development... our coaches aren't blind enough to go down throwing every week like we did against MSU.
 
That was the fewest passing yards in 199 games.

Our D can give us a shot in any game.

Our O can keep us from winning any game.
 
I am squarely in camp #1. We are taking a step backwards this year, and I think most rational fans could see it coming with all the talent we lost. Simultaneously MSU was going to be better than 3-9. No way to get worse.

To chalk up the MSU loss to "more bad luck than anything else" is what drives me nuts about our fanbase. Give credit where credit is due. Their defense played well and took advantage of our weaknesses. They made O'Korn have to beat them and he just couldn't do it. They blitzed all game long and got constant pressure, which makes happy feet O'Korn lose his shit and turn the ball over. On offense MSU didn't do much, but made just enough plays to win the game. They had one long "lucky" catch, but the guy still had to make it. None of our guys made a play like that to help us out. It could have gone either way and it was no "ass-kicking", but MSU earned that win plain and simple.

We ran the ball well against Indiana which is encouraging, but we are at our strongest when we are a balanced offense. Penn State is just going to load the box up and force O'Korn to beat them. 16 enforced penalties is a recipe for disaster. We have not played a clean game in terms of turnovers/penalties in a while. Nobody on offense has stepped up since Black went down. Does Perry still play? There's not a lot that I've seen on that side of the ball that leads me to the conclusion of "we're fine."

You can label this "negative" but I am just calling it like I see it. We will all be cheering for them to win come Saturday. The defense can't do it alone is all. Hoping somebody comes out of nowhere and really shines under the lights.
 
Things aren't bad on average, but if it's a game of rock, paper, scissor we have a huge weakness when it comes to scissor. If we can find a way to get better at scissor by the end of the season, maybe we'll be able to finish up strong. In the meantime, you never know, maybe we'll get lucky. Maybe Penn St can't stop rock even when they know we're gonna throw rock.

Penn State has the #24 rushing defense. MSU is #8 and Indiana is #77.
 
Things aren't bad on average, but if it's a game of rock, paper, scissor we have a huge weakness when it comes to scissor. If we can find a way to get better at scissor by the end of the season, maybe we'll be able to finish up strong. In the meantime, you never know, maybe we'll get lucky. Maybe Penn St can't stop rock even when they know we're gonna throw rock.

Penn State has the #24 rushing defense. MSU is #8 and Indiana is #77.

I am wondering what IU's rushing defense was ranked before they played Michigan. Michigan got the most yards on the ground so far this season.
 
Hey, Indiana held Barkley to 56 yards on 20 carries. UM gives up on average 87 fewer rushing yards per game than IU, so I'm calling it, -37 yards for Barkley on Saturday.
 
I am wondering what IU's rushing defense was ranked before they played Michigan. Michigan got the most yards on the ground so far this season.

Probably not a whole lot better, at least in terms of that metric. They averaged giving up 152 yards a game prior to last week, that would put them at #66 if you look at this week's rankings. They have played some good offenses though. Not sure what the fancy stats say.
 
It all comes down to OKorn and the offense. As I have said in other posts, OKorn has to quit trying to do too much, hit is receivers under the coverage, the receivers have to make the catches, running game has to get going early in the game, no turnovers and no penalties. Otherwise, the defense is not going to be able to hold PSU off. Does the "white out" really matter? It seems like PSU fans want to make a big thing out of it. I don't think that kind of thing affects the outcome of a game at all.
 
If jim was going to pull a Stanford vs usc this weekend may be the time ro do so. Then do it again 2 more times this year !!!
 
In camp 1

Middle of last year I expressed concern about offense with losses of key players
Without a good qb. It shows

Defense i was more comfortable with even with losses. Better coaching and recruits
 
has anyone seen a breakdown of our passing plays?

one excluding plays where a blitz creates early pressure, but including "coverage sacks" in would be helpful, since slow-developing routes and/or plays with no one open seem to be a recurring problem all season.

I'm curious. after a win (I think it was Purdue) the Freep criticised the red zone passes being called as all low probability throws (deep fades mostly), as being routes only tall, veteran receivers can run, which we obviously do not have.

looking at the winning TD in '05 (Henne to Manningham)... obviously both of those guys went on to play on Sundays, and the ball gets their pretty damn quick, but it's just a slant or short post route. two other receivers are in the vicinity making it easy for the QB to see 2nd/3rd options. why don't we have pass plays like that this season? We settle for FGs because we get inside the 20, and then throw deep fades, to an isolated receiver on one side of the field. it's all low probability, no checkdowns...
 
Am I the only one that feels a little bit excited about the chance (however small) to knock off such a highly ranked opponent as a significant underdog?
 
Am I the only one that feels a little bit excited about the chance (however small) to knock off such a highly ranked opponent as a significant underdog?

yes, I am sure no other Michigan fans here on this Michigan message board feel that way; you are the only one.
 
I am concerned that MichLady is in Camp #1, as I've found she's usually the most spot
on here in terms of predictions.

I'm hoping the big underdog status can bring out the best in our boys this week... it moved down a tad to +9.5 now. has to be one of the higher lines we've seen under Harbaugh.

if we win, talk of a Big Ten title will start, but I've tempered my expectations because we still have to avoid upsets to Minn, Rutgers, and MD, win @ UW, beat OSU, AND MSU has to lose twice.
 
Am I the only one that feels a little bit excited about the chance (however small) to knock off such a highly ranked opponent as a significant underdog?

Well, I'd rather Michigan was in position to not have to knock off such a highly ranked opponent as a significant underdog. I'd rather that the Michigan program were in such a place that they would travel to PSU and be favored, but we are not in that reality, so I guess I will settle for the excitement that is generated by having a chance to knock off such a highly ranked opponent as a significant underdog.

To me, though, it isn't really exciting, one way or another. It's not a good excitement or a stressful excitement. It is a no pressure day. To me it is more stressful to be the heavily favored team and then watch the team struggle.
 
Well, I'd rather Michigan was in position to not have to knock off such a highly ranked opponent as a significant underdog. I'd rather that the Michigan program were in such a place that they would travel to PSU and be favored, but we are not in that reality, so I guess I will settle for the excitement that is generated by having a chance to knock off such a highly ranked opponent as a significant underdog.

To me, though, it isn't really exciting, one way or another. It's not a good excitement or a stressful excitement. It is a no pressure day. To me it is more stressful to be the heavily favored team and then watch the team struggle.

That last bit is kind of what I'm getting at. Games are either usually very stressful because there is everything to lose, or, in recent years, Michigan has been too bad for there to be much upside. Historically, if Michigan has a chance at a big upset it is occasionally vs. OSU, which is swamped by the fact the it's THE GAME. Our odds aren't good Saturday, but our def gives us a shot and if we do win, it will totally turn our outlook around.
 
Well, I'd rather Michigan was in position to not have to knock off such a highly ranked opponent as a significant underdog. I'd rather that the Michigan program were in such a place that they would travel to PSU and be favored, but we are not in that reality, so I guess I will settle for the excitement that is generated by having a chance to knock off such a highly ranked opponent as a significant underdog.


To come into Happy Valley as the favorite on Saturday would mean that MICHIGAN is the #1 team in the Nation.
 
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To come into Happy Valley as the favorite on Saturday would mean that MICHIGAN is the #1 team in the Nation.

or that PSU would be in a worse situation than what they are in. We all know they deserve that.
 
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