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Old 11-03-2017, 06:54 AM   #1
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"Baseball was one-hundred percent of my life". Ty Cobb.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring". Rogers Hornsby.
"From 1955 to my retirement, the best All-Around Player in the American League was Al Kaline". Mickey Mantle.
"Kaline in my book is the greatest righthanded hitter in the league". Ted Williams.



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Old 11-03-2017, 12:55 PM   #2
tomdalton22   tomdalton22 is offline
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47. Chris Tillman – Tigers. One year, $10MM. Tillman was a key piece (alongside Adam Jones) received by the Orioles in the 2008 trade that sent Erik Bedard to the Mariners. However, he wasn’t able to crack the Orioles’ rotation for good until 2013, when he was out of minor league options. He made the All-Star team that year and racked up 128 starts for the club from 2013-16. Shoulder issues from late 2016 lingered into this year, and he didn’t pitch for the big league club until May 7th. Tillman went on to post an 8.15 ERA over 15 starts, getting clobbered for 102 hits (including 16 home runs) and 34 walks in 66 2/3 innings. He was moved to the bullpen for the first time in his career in August, though he later made some additional starts. To say 2017 was a lost year for Tillman would be an understatement. However, he doesn’t turn 30 until April, and he had more than four years of big league success as a starter. Assuming a clean bill of health, Tillman could be an interesting reclamation project for a new team, though he’s also been linked to a reunion with the O’s.
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Old 11-03-2017, 01:48 PM   #3
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"Baseball was one-hundred percent of my life". Ty Cobb.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring". Rogers Hornsby.
"From 1955 to my retirement, the best All-Around Player in the American League was Al Kaline". Mickey Mantle.
"Kaline in my book is the greatest righthanded hitter in the league". Ted Williams.

Last edited by kalinecountry; 11-03-2017 at 01:56 PM.
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Old 11-04-2017, 05:21 AM   #4
Rebbiv   Rebbiv is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tomdalton22 View Post
47. Chris Tillman – Tigers. One year, $10MM. Tillman was a key piece (alongside Adam Jones) received by the Orioles in the 2008 trade that sent Erik Bedard to the Mariners. However, he wasn’t able to crack the Orioles’ rotation for good until 2013, when he was out of minor league options. He made the All-Star team that year and racked up 128 starts for the club from 2013-16. Shoulder issues from late 2016 lingered into this year, and he didn’t pitch for the big league club until May 7th. Tillman went on to post an 8.15 ERA over 15 starts, getting clobbered for 102 hits (including 16 home runs) and 34 walks in 66 2/3 innings. He was moved to the bullpen for the first time in his career in August, though he later made some additional starts. To say 2017 was a lost year for Tillman would be an understatement. However, he doesn’t turn 30 until April, and he had more than four years of big league success as a starter. Assuming a clean bill of health, Tillman could be an interesting reclamation project for a new team, though he’s also been linked to a reunion with the O’s.
3-Year Away xFIP (120 IP Min)

Tillman
2010-2012 = 4.64
2011-2013 = 4.15 (102 of 167)
2012-2014 = 4.10 (94 of 161)
2013-2015 = 4.26 (124 of 161)
2014-2016 = 4.60 (137 of 156)
2015-2017 = 4.75 (144 of 161)

2015-2017 3-Year Away xFIP (120 IP Min)

7. M. Scherzer 3.17
19. R. Ray 3.55
38. D. Price 3.79

42. J. Verlander 3.84
57. M. Fulmer 4.04
62. R. Porcello 4.09

93. D. Smyly 4.34
114. D. Norris 4.49

123. A. Sanchez 4.54
125. J. Zimmermann 4.58
136. D. Fister 4.68
143. C. Tillman 4.75
144. M. Boyd 4.86
157. M. Pelfrey 5.17

From 2012-2016, Tillman's most productive years, 161 starters had at least 200 IP Away and he still ranks 125 of 161 in xFIP. One stat, is his BABIP (batted balls in play). Where he has one of the lowest (ranked 25th). This means his fielders were providing him above average defense. As a comparison:

C. Kluber .242 OPP BAVG .315 BABIP
J. Verlander .242 OPP BAVG .303 BABIP
Z. Grenke .246 OPP BAVG .298 BABIP
C. Tillman .248 OPP BAVG .278 BABIP

AL AVG .253 OPP BAVG .293 BABIP
DET AL WORST .309 BABIP (dead last as well in DRS)

Tillman, when he was healthy, was a mediocre pitcher who was helped by team defense. To spend $10 Mil on a questionable healthy starter is absurd. Next to Pelfrey's $8 Mil per season, this would look like a bargain, but the results might be the same (assuming DET's defense does not drastically improve).
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Old 11-04-2017, 01:02 PM   #5
tomdalton22   tomdalton22 is offline
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Originally Posted by Rebbiv View Post
3-Year Away xFIP (120 IP Min)

Tillman
2010-2012 = 4.64
2011-2013 = 4.15 (102 of 167)
2012-2014 = 4.10 (94 of 161)
2013-2015 = 4.26 (124 of 161)
2014-2016 = 4.60 (137 of 156)
2015-2017 = 4.75 (144 of 161)

2015-2017 3-Year Away xFIP (120 IP Min)

7. M. Scherzer 3.17
19. R. Ray 3.55
38. D. Price 3.79

42. J. Verlander 3.84
57. M. Fulmer 4.04
62. R. Porcello 4.09

93. D. Smyly 4.34
114. D. Norris 4.49

123. A. Sanchez 4.54
125. J. Zimmermann 4.58
136. D. Fister 4.68
143. C. Tillman 4.75
144. M. Boyd 4.86
157. M. Pelfrey 5.17

From 2012-2016, Tillman's most productive years, 161 starters had at least 200 IP Away and he still ranks 125 of 161 in xFIP. One stat, is his BABIP (batted balls in play). Where he has one of the lowest (ranked 25th). This means his fielders were providing him above average defense. As a comparison:

C. Kluber .242 OPP BAVG .315 BABIP
J. Verlander .242 OPP BAVG .303 BABIP
Z. Grenke .246 OPP BAVG .298 BABIP
C. Tillman .248 OPP BAVG .278 BABIP

AL AVG .253 OPP BAVG .293 BABIP
DET AL WORST .309 BABIP (dead last as well in DRS)

Tillman, when he was healthy, was a mediocre pitcher who was helped by team defense. To spend $10 Mil on a questionable healthy starter is absurd. Next to Pelfrey's $8 Mil per season, this would look like a bargain, but the results might be the same (assuming DET's defense does not drastically improve).
I agree that he would be too much of a risk at that price. I would like to see them pick up one veteran starter on a one year contract though, but at a cheaper price. Somebody like him that has something to prove that they could move at the deadline if he pitches well.
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Old 11-06-2017, 05:39 AM   #6
kalinecountry   kalinecountry is online now
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"Baseball was one-hundred percent of my life". Ty Cobb.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring". Rogers Hornsby.
"From 1955 to my retirement, the best All-Around Player in the American League was Al Kaline". Mickey Mantle.
"Kaline in my book is the greatest righthanded hitter in the league". Ted Williams.
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Old 11-06-2017, 05:44 AM   #7
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"Baseball was one-hundred percent of my life". Ty Cobb.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring". Rogers Hornsby.
"From 1955 to my retirement, the best All-Around Player in the American League was Al Kaline". Mickey Mantle.
"Kaline in my book is the greatest righthanded hitter in the league". Ted Williams.
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Old 11-11-2017, 06:42 PM   #8
kalinecountry   kalinecountry is online now
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"Baseball was one-hundred percent of my life". Ty Cobb.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring". Rogers Hornsby.
"From 1955 to my retirement, the best All-Around Player in the American League was Al Kaline". Mickey Mantle.
"Kaline in my book is the greatest righthanded hitter in the league". Ted Williams.
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Old 11-12-2017, 04:00 PM   #9
Rebbiv   Rebbiv is offline
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FA Starters xFIP Last 3 Years Away:

#1s
Y. Darrvish 3.18
M. Pineda 3.28
J. Arrieta 3.44

#2s
J. Cueto 3.68
B. Anderson 3.72
T. Ross 3.76
S. Feldman 4.02
M. Fulmer 4.04

#3s
J. Lackey 4.17
W. Chen 4.21
C.C. Sabathia 4.29

#4s
C. Buchholz 4.29
L. Lynn 4.32
H. Iwakuma 4.32
F. Liriano 4.35
J. Garcia 4.35
J. Chavez 4.36
U. Jimenez 4.38
T. Chatwood 4.40
W. Miley 4.45
D. Norris 4.49

#5s
R. Nolasco 4.51
J. Chachin 4.52
A. Sanchez 4.54
J. Zimmermann 4.58
B. Colon 4.62
W. Peralta 4.65
D. Fister 4.68
Y. Gallardo 4.69
J. Helickson 4.70
J. Locke 4.72
R.A. Dickey 4.74
A. Cobb 4.75
C. Tillman 5.75

M. Boyd 4.86
A. Cashner 4.89
M. Garza 4.90
J. Vargas 4.93
M. Pelfrey 5.17
M. Gonzalez 5.17
C. Young 5.22
A. Simon 5.42
H. Santiago 5.49
D. Holland 5.61

**italics are projected DET Starters

I wouldn't touch the bottom 23.
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Last edited by Rebbiv; 11-12-2017 at 04:01 PM.
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Old 12-01-2017, 04:56 PM   #10
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"Baseball was one-hundred percent of my life". Ty Cobb.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring". Rogers Hornsby.
"From 1955 to my retirement, the best All-Around Player in the American League was Al Kaline". Mickey Mantle.
"Kaline in my book is the greatest righthanded hitter in the league". Ted Williams.
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