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1st two round draft picks last 10 years

Rebbiv

Senior Member
Joined
Aug 5, 2011
Messages
6,302
2008

  • 1 Ryan Perry RHP (4YR)
  • 2 Cody Satterwaite RHP (4YR)
2009

  • 1 Jacob Turner RHP (HS)
  • 2 Andy Oliver LHP (4YR)
2010

  • 1s Nick Castellanos 3B (HS)
  • 1s Chance Rufffin RHP (4YR)
  • 2 Drew Smyly LHP (4YR)
2011

  • 2 James McCann C (4YR)
2012

  • 2 Jake Thompson RHP (HS)
2013

  • 1 Jonathan Crawford RHP (4YR)
  • 1 Corey Knebel RHP (4YR) = Closer for the Brewers
  • 2 Kevin Ziomek LHP (4YR)
2014

  • 1 Derek Hill OF (HS)
  • 2 Spencer Turnbull RHP (4YR)
2015

  • 1 Beau Burrows RHP (HS)
  • 1 Christin Stewart OF (4YR)
  • 2 Tyler Alexander LHP (4YR)
2016

  • 1 Matt Manning RHP (HS)
2017

  • 1 Alex Faedo RHP (4YR)
  • 2 Rey Rivera OF (JC)


11 picks in the first round. 5 of the 8 top picks by DET in that 1st round were High Schoolers.

15 of the 20 picks in the last 10 years have been pitchers.

Draft Pick "Reaching" MLB

Round 1 = 66% (70.5% 4YR players)
Round 2 = 49% (71.1% 4YR players)

Round 3-5 = 32%
Round 6-10 = 20%
Round 11-20 = 11%
Round 21-40 = 7%

Being a Career Minor Leaguer

Round 1 (4YR) = 29.5%
Round 1 (HS) = 46.5%

Round 2 (4YR) = 28.9%
Round 2 (HS) = 61.4%

Round 3 (4YR) = 56.2%
Round 3 (HS) = 64.9%

Round 4 (4YR) = 59.1%
Round 4 (HS) = 72.0%

After the first 2 rounds, the dropoff of 4YR college draftees is greater, but they still have a better odds of being an MLB player than a HS draftee.

HS Draftee = High Risk, high reward (i.e. Trout)
Bryce Harper was a Junior College draft pick

4YR Positional players are easier to forecast in the first few rounds than 4YR pitchers.
 
Last edited:
Interesting how round 2 there is no drop off. Even have a better chance..
 
So I take it were going to pick a power arm out of high school?
 
To be fair some of those guys were flipped for better assets but yes.... Dumpster fire
 
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