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Beyond the Box Score predicting ex-Tiger Garcia to bust?

turok

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 1, 2011
Messages
12,365
"I took a look at some of Chris St. John's prospect research as it related to Avisail, and found a couple of interesting takeaways. Garcia's bat -- you know, the thing that will keep him in the majors, in a best-case scenario -- doesn't profile as a likely winner."



"Avisail Garcia has a 20.7% career minor-league strikeout rate, paired with just a 4.0% walk rate. That puts Garcia at the cutoff for "high" strikeout rate and far below the cutoff for a "low" walk rate. Prior to 2013, Chris gave Avisail a 67% chance of "Bust", compared to a 20% chance of "Average" and a 13% chance of being "Productive". To be fair, Garcia's strong performance in the minors and not-awful performance in the majors last season probably raise those odds a bit, but he also should have been counted on to improve in his age-22 season. "

"Even under what I'd consider a "best-case" scenario, Garcia's probably hauling around a bust rate of 40-50%. His combination of nascent power and decent bat-to-ball ability is buoyed by a complete inability to walk and a pretty high K%."


http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/20...marlins-chicago-white-sox-los-angeles-dodgers

Of course the White Sox aren't likely to be "contenders" next season, and at best maybe competitive in the ALCD....so Avisail won't be under as much pressure to perform and will probably be given every opportunity to remain their starting RFer.

Tigers might not get very much offense and no power from their portion of the 3 team trade in SS Iggy, but his defense will likely be at least above average.
 
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I had predicted he would be a bust before the trade. Nothing new here.
 
The numbers he put up in AAA were astronomical. He came to MLB and was basically a dud. (so far)

This is why I'm so worried about Castellanos, untested at the Major League level is still untested. If he does well DD will look like a genius, if he doesn't then he painted us into a corner with no viable 3Bman.
 
Last 3 years away

Castellanos (22) 89.0 RC/650 .297 BAVG .344 OBP .434 SLG .778 OPS 15.9 PA/BB

A. Garcia (22) 71.9 RC/650 .267 BAVG .303 OBP .407 SLG .710 OPS 25.7 PA/BB


The issue with Garcia is his atrocious walk rate, plus he is basically a corner OFer putting up middle infield OPS.

Castellanos is at least providing above average production for his position. After a year or so at the big leagues, I expect at least league average production. If he improves his plate discipline enough, he might one day be an elite 3B.

For both, being only 22, they still have 2-3 years of learning. But certainly their OBP/Walk Rate is very telling.
 
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