2021 Prospects: Detroit Tigers Top 10 Prospects
Jeffrey Paternostro, Nathan Graham, and BP Prospect Staff
December 4, 2020
The State of the System: The high-end pitching talent has scuffled recently and the system is now led by two potential impact bats. You still wonder if it?s enough to fill out a competitive AL Central roster heading into Year Four of the rebuild.
2020 Detroit Tigers Prospect List
The Top Ten:
Spencer Torkelson, 3B/1B
Riley Greene, OF
Casey Mize, RHP
Matt Manning, RHP
Tarik Skubal, LHP
Dillon Dingler, C
Isaac Paredes, 3B
Alex Faedo, RHP
Joey Wentz, LHP
Parker Meadows, OF
***
1.
Spencer Torkelson
1B/3B
Born: 1999-08-26
B: Right
T: Right
H: 6′ 1″
W: 220 lbs.
Drafted first overall in the 2020 draft, Arizona State University; signed for $8,416,300.
Previous Rank: N/A
The Report: Rare is the player who is selected as a virtually ready-made product straight out of college. There may not be much left to the imagination, except for maybe where he ends up defensively. The draft card read by Rob Manfred listed Torkelson as a third baseman despite his never having appeared at the position in college. His defensive home is inconsequential?whether it?s at third or first or a corner outfield spot?because the bat is what made him the first overall pick and it will carry him to the big leagues. It?s an above-average hit tool thanks to a selective approach and plus-plus power to all fields. If there is a weakness offensively, it has yet to be exposed.
Development Track: All Torkelson did while at Arizona State is obliterate most of Barry Bonds? school records. He pummeled the Pac-12 every year, crushed in the Cape Cod League, and cruised on the U.S. Collegiate National Team. He can now turn the page to be tested against pro pitching (finally), after performing very well at fall instructs. How long he spends in the minors will depend on how quickly the bat forces the Tigers? hand.
OFP: 70 / All-Star slugger
Variance: Low. Defense is almost irrelevant when 30 homers annually might be the floor. ?Keanan Lamb
Major league ETA: 2022, after a few weeks in the minors to ?work on his defense.?
Mark Barry?s Fantasy Take:
?All Torkelson did while at Arizona State is obliterate most of Barry Bonds? school records.?
Lol.
I think Torkelson is very good at hitting and that will translate to the MLB. He?s a no-doubt, top-10 dynasty guy for me and could be closer to five than 10.
2.
Riley Greene
OF
Born: 2000-09-28
B: Left
T: Left
H: 6′ 3″
W: 200 lbs.
Drafted fifth overall in the 2019 draft, Arizona State University; signed for $6,180,700.
Previous Rank: #3 (Org), #49 (Top 101)
Year Team Level Age PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG DRC+ BABIP
2019 TIW ROK 18 43 9 3 0 2 8 5 12 0 0 .351 .442 .595 164 .478
2019 CON SS 18 100 12 3 1 1 7 11 25 1 0 .295 .380 .386 127 .403
2019 WM Lo-A 18 108 13 2 2 2 13 6 26 4 0 .219 .278 .344 62 .268
The Report: Greene?s profile is one of balance. He has the five-tool potential you?d expect from a prep outfielder drafted fifth overall, but he arrived in the pro ranks in 2019 with a fairly advanced offensive game for his age and experience level. He had room to fill out and add strength, but the present frame looked the part of a future major leaguer. The hit and power tools both projected as plus despite a late hand load due to his bat speed and solid approach. The physical tools showed a potential above-average outfield glove, but Greene did struggle with his routes and reads in the big Norwich outfield and his arm might be the one place on the scouting sheet you struggle to give him at least a 5. The performance might not have been immediately loud, but you didn?t have to squint hard to see a future plus regular, with breakout potential past that.
Development Track: About that breakout potential: We are about as confident as we can be for a prospect with uh ? zero 2020 games played that a breakout of some sort happened. Greene added the good weight and the game power seems to be catching up to the raw. More reps in the outfield at the alternate site and instructs have smoothed out the defensive game and he?s maintained most of his straight line speed for now, although I?d expect continued physical maturation in his 20s to make him a better fit in left than center. The bat will play there.
OFP: 70 / All-Star outfielder
Variance: High. He did have zero real 2020 games. So we?re hedging some until he?s showing the same tools/skills gains in the upper minors. There was at least some discussion about whether he should rank over Torkelson though, if you want to talk about positive variance. ?Jeffrey Paternostro
Major league ETA: Late 2022/Early 2023
Mark Barry?s Fantasy Take: There?s no doubt that Torkelson is the No. 1 dude in this system, but Green might be my personal favorite. He has a chance to contribute in all five categories, with a plus batting average (a stat that has been exceedingly hard to find as of late). Because I?m typically one to value dynasty bats more than arms (really going out on a limb there), I?d have Green hovering around my personal top-20 list.
3.
Casey Mize
P
Born: 1997-05-01
B: Right
T: Right
H: 6′ 3″
W: 220 lbs.
Drafted first overall in the 2018 draft, Auburn University; signed for $7.5 million.
Previous Rank: #1 (Org), #12 (Top 101)
Year Team Level Age W L SV G GS IP H HR BB% K% K GB% BABIP WHIP ERA DRA
2019 LAK Hi-A 22 2 0 0 6 6 30.2 11 0 4.7% 28.0% 30 47.9% .155 0.52 0.88 1.83
2019 ERI AA 22 6 3 0 15 15 78.2 69 5 5.6% 23.5% 76 42.2% .294 1.11 3.20 4.17
2020 DET MLB 23 0 3 0 7 7 28.1 29 7 9.8% 19.5% 26 38.6% .268 1.48 6.99 6.30
The Report: We really had no idea what to do with Mize last offseason. For the first half of 2019, he was the best pitching prospect in baseball, an absolute monster with a mid-90s fastball that he manipulated well and three plus off-speeds that all flashed plus-plus. The command was there and he looked like a potential future ace pitching in High-A and Double-A. Then he had a shoulder injury. While he came back briefly as a diminished version of himself and pitched poorly, he was quickly shut down after that, and we really didn?t know what version of Mize to expect when the Tigers called him up in August.
Development Track: In Mize?s first start in the majors, he flashed some of the ace potential, albeit with a little less command and a little less in-game endurance than you would have liked to see with all the question marks coming out of 2019. Those command and endurance issues lingered for his remaining six starts, and he also didn?t always sit mid-90s as the season progressed. On balance, he was kind of terrible, and we?re leaning a lot on our priors here to even have him this high.
OFP: 60 / No. 2/3 starter
Variance: High. Mize has shown us more than this in the past, and even flashed it for three and four inning spurts in the majors. He could put it back together very quickly?or never do so at all. I?d like to be optimistic here, but he really needs an uninterrupted season where nothing major goes wrong. ?Jarrett Seidler
Major league ETA: Debuted in 2020
Mark Barry?s Fantasy Take: Things were weird this year and everything should be taken with a grain of salt. Still, Mize was really bad in his debut, taking a huge step back with his command, failing to get many whiffs, and serving up dingers like they were macarons during Biscuit Week. Fold in his prior arm ailments and I am, as they say, worried. I?m in wait-and-see mode with Mize, so it?s likely I won?t have him on any fantasy teams in the near future.
4.
Matt Manning
P
Born: 1998-01-28
B: Right
T: Right
H: 6′ 6″
W: 215 lbs.
Drafted ninth overall in the 2016 draft, Sheldon HS (CA); signed for $3,505,800.
Previous Rank: #2 (Org), #47 (Top 101)
Year Team Level Age W L SV G GS IP H HR BB% K% K GB% BABIP WHIP ERA DRA
2019 ERI AA 21 11 5 0 24 24 133.2 93 7 7.2% 28.1% 148 47.8% .259 0.98 2.56 2.75
The Report: Manning profiles as a mid-rotation starting pitcher with some tantalizing hints that he might be even better. His fastball sits in the low-to-mid-90s, touching 96, and he gets great extension and angle on it. His power curveball profiles as a true plus pitch and flashes plus-plus potential, although it?s a little humpier than you?d like. The changeup is going to make or break the profile as a starter; we projected that it would settle in as an average offering on balance last year, when it sometimes flashed higher and sometimes was too firm and looked like it needed to pick up a grade for him to stay in the rotation. Manning seems to have largely overcome past repeatability and delivery issues, and all-in-all he?s a very fine pitching prospect.
Development Track: Manning probably would have debuted in the majors in 2020 were it not for a forearm strain. The Tigers shut him down in August, although we?ve been assured that he?s healthy and ready to go for 2021. He was added to the 40-man roster after the season.
OFP: 60 / No. 2/3 starter
Variance: Medium, still. We still have concerns that he?ll end up in the bullpen if the changeup consistency doesn?t improve, and the forearm issues aren?t exactly great. But there?s positive variance here too, with his fastball/breaking ball combination hinting at higher-end outcomes if the rest sorts out.?Jarrett Seidler
Major league ETA: 2021
Mark Barry?s Fantasy Take: Potential mid-rotation starter, you say? With forearm issues? How could I possibly resist? As far as guys with that profile, however, I like Manning a little more than the rest. I think he?ll strike enough guys out that he?ll still be useful, even if the rate stats aren?t great. He?s an SP3 for me with the upside of a little more, but also a downside of a reliever.
5.
Tarik Skubal
P
Born: 1996-11-20
B: Left
T: Left
H: 6′ 3″
W: 215 lbs.
Drafted in the ninth round of the 2018 draft, Seattle University; signed for $350,000.
Previous Rank: #4 (Org), #76 (Top 101)
Year Team Level Age W L SV G GS IP H HR BB% K% K GB% BABIP WHIP ERA DRA
2019 LAK Hi-A 22 4 5 0 15 15 80.1 62 5 5.9% 30.3% 97 40.0% .292 1.01 2.58 3.31
2019 ERI AA 22 2 3 0 9 9 42.1 25 2 10.6% 48.2% 82 40.6% .343 1.02 2.13 2.40
2020 DET MLB 23 1 4 0 8 7 32.0 28 9 8.2% 27.6% 37 27.7% .253 1.22 5.63 7.88
The Report: The Tigers made a bet on Skubal after he missed most of two college seasons following Tommy John surgery, and struggled with his control and command when he returned to the mound in 2018. It paid off in 2019, as a healthy Skubal dominated two levels with a plus fastball/slider combo. His Double-A K-rate was absurd, as he struck out nearly half of the Eastern League batters he faced. The raw pitch grades wouldn?t suggest that level of dominance. His velocity is plus, but not spectacular when stretched out, and the fastball is high-spin but runs pretty true. The slider flashes plus-plus, but he can?t always command it in a way that elicits chases against better hitters. But both pitches can play up to the deception and angle created in Skubal?s delivery. There were still reliever markers even in his breakout campaign, but at worst we?d expect him to be a very good, potential multi-inning fireman.
Development Track: Skubal was promoted to Detroit the same week as Mize and Paredes. All three had their struggles adjusting to major league competition. Skubal leaned heavily on his fastball and hitters were able to hit it hard in the zone, although he got his fair share of swings-and-misses with it as well. They were able to lay off the slider and other secondaries enough to force Skubal into fastball counts, and it may not be enough fastball to turn over a lineup multiple times without further command and secondary improvement. He threw his change a lot, but it doesn?t have a ton of action or deception, and his curveball is potentially average, but more a change-of-breaking-ball look for now. Despite the MLB struggles, we don?t think the profile has changed all that much, although that multi-inning fireman role looks more likely.
OFP: 55 / Maddening mid-rotation starter // 60 / First-division closer
Variance: Medium. The breaker is good enough you will find a role for him on a major-league staff, but the command, change, and durability issues mean it might be in a late-inning shutdown role. ?Jeffrey Paternostro
Major league ETA: Debuted in 2020
Mark Barry?s Fantasy Take: During his debut, Skubal?s ERA more than doubled the second time through the order. It?s a small sample, sure, but it?s also the stuff multi-inning relievers are made of. It?s too early to relegate him to that role (and the Tigers aren?t good enough to have that pressing need), but his current profile is awfully Carlos Rod?n-y and not in a good way.
6.
Dillon Dingler
C
Born: 1998-09-17
B: Right
T: Right
H: 6′ 3″
W: 210 lbs.
Drafted 38th overall in the 2020 draft, Ohio State University; signed for $1,952,300.
Previous Rank: N/A
The Report: You will be hard-pressed to find a player in the 2020 draft who improved his stock more given the very short season. After arriving at Ohio State as primarily a center fielder, the Buckeyes started to try him at catcher due to his overall athleticism. The transition to a full-time catcher role hit its peak this spring. Dingler showed an impressive ability to block pitches, flashed a plus arm, and demonstrated improved receiving. Not only did the defense now look above-average, so did his right-handed swing, as he consistently barreled balls while showing an advanced approach. Dingler is the rare projectable college catcher where both the offensive and defensive tools could end up above-average.
Development Track: Catching is still a relatively new position for Dingler. Even with the rapid improvements, he will need to continue to refine those skills and build upon them. He?s a plus athlete for a backstop, which should help him handle the defensive rigors. The track record is limited yet promising, with reports out of post-draft workouts noting continued high performance.
OFP: 55 / High variance catcher who could be a second-division starter or first-division All-Star
Variance: Very High. All signs are trending upward, even if it is just a snapshot in time. There exists a scenario where the bat develops faster than the glove and you try to get him defensive reps a bunch of places. This could go in a bunch of different directions. ?Keanan Lamb
Major league ETA: 2023
Mark Barry?s Fantasy Take: Dingler could be very good, but as he?s new to the position, it could take awhile. And that position is catcher. I don?t think you have to take the plunge right away, and if he develops into the next, say, Daulton Varsho, then we?ll cross that bridge when we come to it.
7.
Isaac Paredes
3B
Born: 1999-02-18
B: Right
T: Right
H: 5′ 11″
W: 225 lbs.
Signed July 2015 by the Chicago Cubs out of Mexico for $800,000; acquired from the Cubs for Alex Avila and Justin Wilson.
Previous Rank: #6(Org)
Year Team Level Age PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG DRC+ BABIP
2019 ERI AA 20 552 63 23 1 13 66 57 61 5 3 .282 .368 .416 137 .298
2019 ? WIN 20 136 22 4 1 4 15 19 18 0 0 .261 .390 .423 ? .278
2019 ? WIN 20 136 22 4 1 4 15 19 18 0 0 .261 .390 .423 ? .278
2020 DET MLB 21 108 7 4 0 1 6 8 24 0 0 .220 .278 .290 81 .280
The Report: Since being acquired from the Cubs in 2017 Paredes has been a mainstay on the Tigers? list, ranking as high as third two years ago. The bat has always been the carrying tool and he?s displayed the ability to hit at every level in his minor league tenure. There is plus raw power, but with the swing geared more for contact it plays average in game. Defensively, he?s outgrown any possibility of sticking up the middle and has settled in at third base.
Development Track: Paredes started hot but never got back on track after a rough 1-for-29 late August slump. The final slash line (.220/.278/.290) was disappointing, but his youth and track record of hitting should give hope for a rebound. Detroit is in full rebuild mode and Paredes will get plenty of major league at bats next year.
OFP: 50 / Average starting third baseman
Variance: Medium. This profile is tough when it?s limited to a corner infield position. It?s unlikely Parades ever becomes a star, but his offensive game gives a pathway to a major league starting role. ?Nathan Graham
Major league ETA: Debuted in 2020
Mark Barry?s Fantasy Take: Lazy Teammate Comp Alert: the future fantasy line for Parades reminds me a lot of Jeimer Candelario, which is also fun because they came over together from the Cubs. I?m still in for .280ish and 20 homers at peak, which is pretty useful, if not transcendent.
8.
Alex Faedo
P
Born: 1995-11-12
B: Right
T: Right
H: 6′ 5″
W: 230 lbs.
Drafted 18th overall in the 2017 draft, University of Florida; signed for $3.5 million.
Previous Rank: #7 (Org)
Year Team Level Age W L SV G GS IP H HR BB% K% K GB% BABIP WHIP ERA DRA
2019 ERI AA 23 6 7 0 22 22 115.1 104 17 5.3% 28.3% 134 33.3% .293 1.12 3.90 3.75
The Report: Faedo was one of the best pitchers in University of Florida history?he was the Most Outstanding Player of the 2017 College World Series?and was an early candidate to go first-overall in the 2017 MLB Draft. He fell to the middle of the round and has settled in as a good-not-great pitching prospect, but that?s still fun. Faedo lives off a low-90s fastball and a plus slider that has been his go-to out pitch since college, and he commands and manipulates both pitches well. His changeup has lagged a bit behind, and that?s the pitch he?s going to need to improve to establish himself as a long-term starting option in the bigs. Given his fastball has touched higher velocities in the past and the quality of the slider, he should have a decent bullpen fallback, too.
Development Track: Faedo had a lost 2020, even by prospect standards; he tested positive for COVID-19 in July and was shut down for the season with a forearm strain not that long after he got ramped up at the alternate site. He was working out at instructs, and was added to the 40-man roster after the season.
OFP: 50 / No. 4 starter
Variance: Medium. We had ?low? last year, and he hasn?t actually pitched in games since then so there?s no known additional talent variance or anything. But you really can?t give a prospect low variance when he hasn?t pitched since being shut down with a forearm strain. ?Jarrett Seidler
Major league ETA: 2021, if healthy
Mark Barry?s Fantasy Take: In this space last season, I had Faedo pegged as having fantasy SP5 upside. Since he pretty much hasn?t pitched since then, I?m sticking to it.
9.
Joey Wentz
P
Born: 1997-10-06
B: Left
T: Left
H: 6′ 5″
W: 210 lbs.
Drafted 40th overall by the Atlanta Braves in 2016 draft, Shawnee Mission East HS (Prairie Village, KS); signed for $3,050,000. Acquired from the Braves for Shane Greene.
Previous Rank: #5 (Org)
Year Team Level Age W L SV G GS IP H HR BB% K% K GB% BABIP WHIP ERA DRA
2019 ERI AA 21 7 8 0 25 25 128.2 110 16 9.2% 25.7% 137 34.7% .280 1.24 4.20 5.50
The Report: Wentz never consistently found the top-end, mid-90s velocity he showed as a prep his draft year, but after varying velocity reports and curveball effectiveness across his pro career, he had settled back in as a solid pitching prospect after being dealt to the Tigers at the 2019 deadline. A mechanical tweak upped the effectiveness of his low-90s fastball, and both the curve and change projected to above-average?
Development Track: ? and then Wentz was one of the handful of pitchers who blow out every spring, going under the knife for Tommy John surgery in March. His recovery is as expected so far and he should be back throwing in games by mid-season 2021. Perhaps this will allow him a reset from the past couple seasons of injury and inconsistency, but you never want to have major elbow surgery as a pitcher. Coming back 100 percent is not a guarantee as the surgery is common but not routine.
OFP: 50 / No. 4 starter
Variance: High. I suppose there are worse seasons to lose to a torn UCL and Tommy John, but even if Wentz has had a normal recovery so far, we won?t know what he looks like until he?s back on a mound next season. ?Jeffrey Paternostro
Major league ETA: 2022
Mark Barry?s Fantasy Take: I?d keep a heralded southpaw on my watchlist as he treks back from Tommy John surgery, but I wouldn?t go out and trade for such an arm.
10.
Parker Meadows
CF
Born: 1999-11-02
B: Left
T: Right
H: 6′ 5″
W: 205 lbs.
Drafted 44th overall in the 2018 draft, Grayson HS (Loganville, GA); signed for $2.5 million.
Previous Rank: #10 (Org)
Year Team Level Age PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG DRC+ BABIP
2019 WM Lo-A 19 504 52 15 2 7 40 47 113 14 8 .221 .296 .312 78 .277
The Report:Tall, lean, and athletic, Meadows has all the physical tools to be a top-flight center fielder. It takes a few steps for his 6-foot-5 frame to reach top gear, but when it does he has exceptional speed. Not the type of speed that will produce a ton of steals, but it will allow him to take extra bases and cover large swaths of ground in the outfield. He will grow into some power eventually as the swing develops.
Development Track: The lost season was particularly rough for Meadows. A solid year at Lakeland could have allowed us to chalk up his rough 2019 to the growing pains of a prep player in his first full season. We did get some good reports about his development during his brief stint at Toledo, but we will have to wait and see if real strides have been made offensively.
OFP: 50 / Everyday center fielder
Variance: High. The athleticism and glove give him a path to the majors as a reserve type, but we?re going to need to see him hit consistently if he?s going to be anything more. ?Nathan Graham
Major league ETA: 2023
Mark Barry?s Fantasy Take: I love the high ceiling for Meadows, but he?s the type of prospect that suffers the most by missing out on competitive games. He still has a big ceiling, but without reps (and without steals), it?s a fantasy risk I won?t be taking.
***
The Prospects You Meet Outside The Top Ten
Prospects to dream on a little
Roberto Campos, OF
Campos is the Tigers? version of Jasson Dominguez without the Instagram highlights. Both signed their respective teams? largest international free agent contract and have yet to play stateside. Campos might not be as powerful as his Yankees counterpart, but reports tell of a similarly offensive-minded outfielder with a knack for barreling up the baseball. He?s still just a teenager and until we get some live looks against real pitching, it?s going to be a challenge to slot Campos into the prospect ranks.?Nathan Graham
Interesting Draft Follow
Gage Workman, 3B
Workman was the third baseman ?blocking? Torkelson from playing there at Arizona State. He?s a plus defender there with enough on-base skills due to a patient approach to be a useful left-side infield bench piece. He?ll have to show a bit more pop to project as an everyday third baseman though. ?Jeffrey Paternostro
Safe MLB bats, but less upside than you?d like
Daz Cameron, OF
When the Tigers called Cameron up in September, I wrote much of our Call-Up article about his contact and plate approach issues. His swing and contact rates weren?t catastrophically bad in his 59 PA late season run, but they weren?t good either, and from an outcome perspective he walked only twice and struck out 19 times. The hit tool is the big question here; if he can hit .250 consistently the rest of the profile will carry him into being a good regular, but there?s a lot of evidence he might not be able to hit .250 consistently without significant hit tool development. ?Jarrett Seidler
Top Talents 25 and Under (as of 4/1/2021):
Spencer Torkelson, 3B/1B
Riley Greene, OF
Casey Mize, RHP
Matt Manning, RHP
Tarik Skubal, LHP
Dillon Dingler, C
Isaac Paredes, 3B
Alex Faedo, RHP
Joey Wentz, LHP
Willi Castro, SS
Willi Castro is the lone major-leaguer to make the list. The switch-hitting former Cleveland farmhand grabbed hold of the starting shortstop job in September and thrived, hitting .349 on the season with power over 140 plate appearances and ending up fourth in Rookie of the Year voting. While the performance was superficially impressive, his DRC+ was a mere 103, and his WARP was actually negative due to poor defensive performance. There?s not a whole lot to suggest .349 with pop is attainable again and he?s probably not really a shortstop, but there?s a reasonable enough chance he levels out at useful or better to run it back in 2021.
Most of the rest of Detroit?s top young talent is still prospect eligible. Other than Castro, the main player of note is Rony Garc?a, the top pick in the 2019 Rule 5 Draft who stuck on the roster all season. While I liked him some in the Yankees? system, he pitched very poorly in the majors and is not a better bet for long-term future success than Faedo or Wentz. ?Jarrett Seidler
In This Article
0
Alex Faedo
Casey Mize
Daz Cameron
Dillon Dingler
Isaac Paredes
Joey Wentz
Matt Manning
Parker Meadows
Riley Greene
Roberto Campos
Spencer Torkelson
Tarik Skubal
Willi Castro
