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Don't look, Tigers fans: PECOTA projections are out.

kalinecountry

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http://www.mlive.com/tigers/index.ssf/2017/02/pecota_tigers_projections.html#incart_river_index
Don't look, Tigers fans: PECOTA projections are out.
Mlive

The Detroit Tigers are projected to score 741 runs and allow 770 for a record of 78-84.
That's behind the Cleveland Indians (92-70) and Minnesota Twins (80-82) in the American League Central.
The Chicago White Sox (76-86) and the chronically undervalued Kansas City Royals (71-91) bring up the rear in the projections.

Why the negativity from PECOTA? (Named for former player Bill Pecota, PECOTA stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm. Here's the methodology.)
 
unfortunately, I can see their record being close to what PECOTA predicts. However, If a LOT goes right, this team could contend for a WC.
 
If a lot goes right ANY team can contend for a WC.
 
If the Twins finish above the Tigers next year I'll go out and buy a Twins hat as punishment. It's not happening.
 
I have much hope. I like our top 6 hitters in our lineup, maybe we get lucky with someone else. JV, and Fullmer -- Need another SP to step up. Payroll is high but the team isn't as bad as it seems, even with hardly no change. BP will be big. But if we could be in contention last season I don't see how we can't be in contention in '17.
 
I have much hope. I like our top 6 hitters in our lineup, maybe we get lucky with someone else. JV, and Fullmer -- Need another SP to step up. Payroll is high but the team isn't as bad as it seems, even with hardly no change. BP will be big. But if we could be in contention last season I don't see how we can't be in contention in '17.

I expect that the offense will be somewhat similar to last season. The only way they contend is if the pitching is better. My guess is Fulmer and JV will regress to some extent so the improvements will need to come from the rest of the starters and the pen.

Here are our possible starters outside of JV and Fulmer

Starts, innings, WHIP, ERA

Zimmerman 18, 105.1, 1.37, 4.87
Norris 13, 69.1, 1.40, 3.38
Boyd 18, 97.1, 1.29, 4.53
Sanchez 26, 153.1, 1.46, 5.87
Pelfrey 22, 119, 1.73, 5.07

Best case scenario would be Zimmerman to pitch somewhere close to his career averages, one of the lefties to pitch somewhere close to 150-160 IP with a 1.3 WHIP and Sanchez pulling his head out and pitching to his career averages.
 
Offensively, it all depends on how Aumus does the platoons. If he does what most expect, I think it then comes down to health. We cannot afford any injuries to the big 4 (Cabrera, V-Mart, Kinsler or J.D.). I wouldn't include Upton, because he hits HRs and that is it. This team still has one of the worst defenses in the MLB and we have the worst base running team. We will kill LHP and struggle against RHP, especially away from Comerica. I expect the offense to take a step backwards in 2017.

As far as pitching, I think Zimmermann and Sanchez bounce back and I don't expect any regression from JV or Fulmer. There is 4 solid starters if that happens. Health will always be there and it rare to get 20 Games Started from as little as 4 starters, much less 5. We have enough to step in and fill the 5th and spot starter roles. Bullpen will be fine if Ausmus manages them properly.

I am more confident about our pitching then I am about the offense. We have 3-4 positions where if we get anything close to league average we will be lucky. If you combine defense, baserunning and offense, we have just 2-3 positions where we are above average. That does not indicate a sign of future success. Too much has to happen right.
 
I expect that the offense will be somewhat similar to last season. The only way they contend is if the pitching is better. My guess is Fulmer and JV will regress to some extent so the improvements will need to come from the rest of the starters and the pen.

Here are our possible starters outside of JV and Fulmer

Starts, innings, WHIP, ERA

Zimmerman 18, 105.1, 1.37, 4.87
Norris 13, 69.1, 1.40, 3.38
Boyd 18, 97.1, 1.29, 4.53
Sanchez 26, 153.1, 1.46, 5.87
Pelfrey 22, 119, 1.73, 5.07

Best case scenario would be Zimmerman to pitch somewhere close to his career averages, one of the lefties to pitch somewhere close to 150-160 IP with a 1.3 WHIP and Sanchez pulling his head out and pitching to his career averages.

In the same sense I suspect others will pitch better, Zimmerman for one. Boyd was going well towards the end.. I think they can compete.
 
Offensively, it all depends on how Aumus does the platoons. If he does what most expect, I think it then comes down to health. We cannot afford any injuries to the big 4 (Cabrera, V-Mart, Kinsler or J.D.). I wouldn't include Upton, because he hits HRs and that is it. This team still has one of the worst defenses in the MLB and we have the worst base running team. We will kill LHP and struggle against RHP, especially away from Comerica. I expect the offense to take a step backwards in 2017.

As far as pitching, I think Zimmermann and Sanchez bounce back and I don't expect any regression from JV or Fulmer. There is 4 solid starters if that happens. Health will always be there and it rare to get 20 Games Started from as little as 4 starters, much less 5. We have enough to step in and fill the 5th and spot starter roles. Bullpen will be fine if Ausmus manages them properly.

I am more confident about our pitching then I am about the offense. We have 3-4 positions where if we get anything close to league average we will be lucky. If you combine defense, baserunning and offense, we have just 2-3 positions where we are above average. That does not indicate a sign of future success. Too much has to happen right.

The Tigers scored 750 runs last year (AL average was 731) and had a team OPS of .769. Those were 6th and 2nd in the AL. I think they will be similar next year.

I do expect regression from JV and Fulmer. I expect career average numbers from JV and I don't trust Fulmer yet. I would be ecstatic if he came close to what he did last year (3.06 era, 1.12 WHIP) but I expect it will be closer to 3.5 and 1.25. We need more innings out of him though...at least 180.

Zimmerman and Sanchez have to bounce back a little...they can't be that bad again!
 
Spring is coming! !!!!! Tigers will be 99-63 !!!!!!! WS here we come as Miggy wins a title and hits 51 homers and has 147 RBi's, and JV goes 19-7 with 210 k's and 29 walk's, and the key is dirty Sanchez finds his arm again and goes 15-6 with a 3.89 era. Zimmerman bounces back to 12 wins, and the kids hit and pitch, and Kinsler has 160 runs, and JD Martinez hits 37 bombs, and the tigers center field combo hits, and Alex hit's 10 dingers, and Nick gets even better!!!!!!!!!! Baseball is almost here and we Detroit Tigers fans deserve a title !!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
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Spring is coming! !!!!! Tigers will be 99-63 !!!!!!! WS here we come as Miggy wins a title and hits 51 homers and has 147 RBi's, and JV goes 19-7 with 210 k's and 29 walk's, and the key is dirty Sanchez finds his arm again and goes 15-6 with a 3.89 era. Zimmerman bounces back to 12 wins, and the kids hit and pitch, and Kinsler has 160 runs, and JD Martinez hits 37 bombs, and the tigers center field combo hits, and Alex hit's 10 dingers, and Nick gets even better!!!!!!!!!! Baseball is almost here and we Detroit Tigers fans deserve a title !!!!!!!!!!!!!

a little early to be drinking ;)
 
The Tigers scored 750 runs last year (AL average was 731) and had a team OPS of .769. Those were 6th and 2nd in the AL. I think they will be similar next year.

I do expect regression from JV and Fulmer. I expect career average numbers from JV and I don't trust Fulmer yet. I would be ecstatic if he came close to what he did last year (3.06 era, 1.12 WHIP) but I expect it will be closer to 3.5 and 1.25. We need more innings out of him though...at least 180.

Zimmerman and Sanchez have to bounce back a little...they can't be that bad again!

You expect regression from pitchers but not of the hitters? We have three of our top 4 hitters past the age of 34 in 2017. Kinsler at 34 last year arguably had his best year since 2008. Even if we kept Maybin, it will be awfully hard to repeat that production in CF this year. Has Castellanos actually improved? Upton basically killed it in September, long after DET was out of it. Will he bring it all season long, or just bring it for one month and crap the rest?

I actually think McCann will be slightly better this year. Possibly even Iglesias, if he can stay healthy. But neither of these two are going to put up all star offensive numbers. We have no reserve/role player that can fill in for an injured starter for any period. It isn't like we can lose a Kyle Swarber or Michael Brantley and plug the hole with viable options. They don't have to be great, just capable.
 
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You expect regression from pitchers but not of the hitters? We have three of our top 4 hitters past the age of 34 in 2017. Kinsler at 34 last year arguably had his best year since 2008. Even if we kept Maybin, it will be awfully hard to repeat that production in CF this year. Has Castellanos actually improved? Upton basically killed it in September, long after DET was out of it. Will he bring it all season long, or just bring it for one month and crap the rest?

I actually think McCann will be slightly better this year. Possibly even Iglesias, if he can stay healthy. But neither of these two are going to put up all star offensive numbers. We have no reserve/role player that can fill in for an injured starter for any period. It isn't like we can lose a Kyle Swarber or Michael Brantley and plug the hole with viable options. They don't have to be great, just capable.

I didn't break down batter by batter like I did with the starters. I just said, as an offense, they should be able to put up around the same offensive production (around 750 runs).
 
a little early to be drinking ;)

No drinking just dreaming about another world series title in Detroit! !!
BASEBALL IS COMING BACK !!!! I love baseball numbers . I like all the banter in the Tiger forum. Baseball historical numbers are the best of all the sports. Man I want Miggy and jv to win a world series title in a Tiger Uniform.
Man we were so close three times !!!
 
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No drinking just dreaming about another world series title in Detroit! !!
BASEBALL IS COMING BACK !!!! I love baseball numbers . I like all the banter in the Tiger forum. Baseball historical numbers are the best of all the sports. Man I want Miggy and jv to win a world series title in a Tiger Uniform.
Man we were so close three times !!!

I agree...Tigers baseball is my favorite team to follow. I think it's because there are games almost every day.

Unfortunately, I think the window of Miggy and JV winning a WS in Detroit has closed. I think the only way it happens is if Fulmer, Boyd and Norris all become #1 or #2 type pitchers...and fast.
 
I agree...Tigers baseball is my favorite team to follow. I think it's because there are games almost every day.

Unfortunately, I think the window of Miggy and JV winning a WS in Detroit has closed. I think the only way it happens is if Fulmer, Boyd and Norris all become #1 or #2 type pitchers...and fast.


I agree with you I am afraid we lost our window.
 
So we get a new window.

Unfortunately, that will be at least 5-7 years from the point they decide to rebuild. Unlike the other sports, you cannot re-do the franchise as quickly in baseball as you do other sports. I am betting it is more like 10 years based on the void in the minors.
 
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