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Gulo Blue
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- Oct 4, 2013
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With AI on the verge of being able to drive cars and Watson (who crushed Jeopardy) diagnosing cancer better than doctors, a growing number of people are expecting automation to replace a significant part of the American workforce. Machines have replaced workers in the past and the economy has always adapted, but I'm not so sure the adjustments aren't masking fundamental shifts that have already taken place. I can drive around town and look at huge area where every business and every worker is just helping fellow Americans to consume or providing services for each other. Stores and fast food places and car repair shops, gas stations, insurance agencies, gyms, barbershops, ...everything. You can draw imaginary boundaries around huge parts of town, and products are shipped in, but nothing is shipped out. People moved out of the fields and factories and into strip malls and call centers.
So I feel like even though the economy has adjusted to the level of automation we've achieved, it did it through this shift to a consumer economy, which I think has to be subsidized to a significant degree. (And there are growing subsidy programs out there, like the explosion in workers comp and disability, but I have no idea how much growth there's been if you add everything up.)
So my gut says we're already watching the economy change and I think the automation of decision making is different from the machine automation of labor we've seen the economy adjust to in the past. I expect us to continue to expand social safety nets, and maybe all the baby boomers retiring will help, but in 20 years, I can't imagine what kinds of jobs we can create to pick up the slack and I haven't heard any suggestions.
So I feel like even though the economy has adjusted to the level of automation we've achieved, it did it through this shift to a consumer economy, which I think has to be subsidized to a significant degree. (And there are growing subsidy programs out there, like the explosion in workers comp and disability, but I have no idea how much growth there's been if you add everything up.)
So my gut says we're already watching the economy change and I think the automation of decision making is different from the machine automation of labor we've seen the economy adjust to in the past. I expect us to continue to expand social safety nets, and maybe all the baby boomers retiring will help, but in 20 years, I can't imagine what kinds of jobs we can create to pick up the slack and I haven't heard any suggestions.