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Rebbiv
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http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/...o-rebuild-who-must-ditch-dreams-of-contending
Think about the warning signs for a team in decline:
1. Age
2. Lack of depth
3. Poor minor league system
4. Financial resources tied up or limited
These four issues have been blaring down on the Detroit Tigers like a 200-watt bulb for a few years now. They made four straight playoff appearances from 2011 to 2014 but missed the playoffs the past two seasons despite running one of the highest payrolls in the game. General manager Al Avila, who took over late in 2015, indicated at the start of the offseason that the Tigers needed to do some rebuilding, but the weak state of the AL Central instead has left them stuck in some freshly poured concrete with the same roster.
Their four best hitters in 2016 were Miguel Cabrera (age 33), J.D. Martinez (28, but a free agent after 2017), Ian Kinsler (34) and Victor Martinez (37). That group has aged well but is another year older. Free agents Justin Upton and Jordan Zimmermann had disappointing years. The rotation is shaky behind Justin Verlander and Michael Fulmer.
The long-term issue is that the Tigers already carry an inflexible payroll. Cabrera is signed through at least 2023; Upton makes $22 million a year through 2022; Zimmermann is owed another $92 million through 2020; Verlander is signed through 2019. The only big salary coming off the books will be Anibal Sanchez after 2017.
Meanwhile, the farm system hasn't produced a quality regular since Rick Porcello in 2009. (Nick Castellanos isn't there yet.) It is showing more potential than it has in years -- although still ranked just No. 24 overall by Keith Law.
The weird thing about the Detroit offseason, however, isn't that they decided to avoid a rebuild, but they haven't added anything to improve the team. Why would you expect an older team to improve the following season? Instead, the Tigers still have a gaping hole in center field, a mediocre bullpen, a weak bench and no team speed. Sure, Upton and Zimmermann could have better seasons, and maybe Daniel Norris or Matt Boyd emerges, but I don't see a 90-win team here.
Think about the warning signs for a team in decline:
1. Age
2. Lack of depth
3. Poor minor league system
4. Financial resources tied up or limited
These four issues have been blaring down on the Detroit Tigers like a 200-watt bulb for a few years now. They made four straight playoff appearances from 2011 to 2014 but missed the playoffs the past two seasons despite running one of the highest payrolls in the game. General manager Al Avila, who took over late in 2015, indicated at the start of the offseason that the Tigers needed to do some rebuilding, but the weak state of the AL Central instead has left them stuck in some freshly poured concrete with the same roster.
Their four best hitters in 2016 were Miguel Cabrera (age 33), J.D. Martinez (28, but a free agent after 2017), Ian Kinsler (34) and Victor Martinez (37). That group has aged well but is another year older. Free agents Justin Upton and Jordan Zimmermann had disappointing years. The rotation is shaky behind Justin Verlander and Michael Fulmer.
The long-term issue is that the Tigers already carry an inflexible payroll. Cabrera is signed through at least 2023; Upton makes $22 million a year through 2022; Zimmermann is owed another $92 million through 2020; Verlander is signed through 2019. The only big salary coming off the books will be Anibal Sanchez after 2017.
Meanwhile, the farm system hasn't produced a quality regular since Rick Porcello in 2009. (Nick Castellanos isn't there yet.) It is showing more potential than it has in years -- although still ranked just No. 24 overall by Keith Law.
The weird thing about the Detroit offseason, however, isn't that they decided to avoid a rebuild, but they haven't added anything to improve the team. Why would you expect an older team to improve the following season? Instead, the Tigers still have a gaping hole in center field, a mediocre bullpen, a weak bench and no team speed. Sure, Upton and Zimmermann could have better seasons, and maybe Daniel Norris or Matt Boyd emerges, but I don't see a 90-win team here.
