Bad luck for Payne

[Sbee]

has mono, will miss the draft combine. that's going to hurt him and his draft stock.

 

[everyoneneedsasmil]

I honestly doubt it affects much. The NBA combine isn't nearly as big or important as the NFL combine, and Payne is a senior. Teams already know what he is, an athletic PF who can shoots the lights out. Those are the attributes that will get him drafted, and it's not like mono is a debilitating knee injury or something that would last long term.

If he was a freshman or maybe even a sophomore, this might have an effect on his stock. But if he was a freshman or sophomore having played like he did this year, he would be in the running for a top 10 pick. As it is, he's probably a 15-25 pick depending entirely on team needs. Too old to be a lottery pick (Harris), but too skilled and athletic to fall to the second round (Draymond).

 

[LuciousGameWinner]

Payne is a more complete player than Harris. I don't see how Harris is considered a lottery pick. I wouldn't touch him until the late first round.

 

[Sbee]

Payne is a more complete player than Harris. I don't see how Harris is considered a lottery pick. I wouldn't touch him until the late first round.

I'm not sure what you consider to be a complete player but Harris is very close. He didn't shoot well from 3 last year but he has good size, strength, body control, quickness, and has great hands on defense. He's not perfect in every way but he's a sure fire lottery pick in a deep draft

 

[Spartanmack]

Payne is a more complete player than Harris. I don't see how Harris is considered a lottery pick. I wouldn't touch him until the late first round.

I don't either - way too streaky of a shooter (not even in the top 50 in 3 pt %), the average 2 in the NBA is over 6'5" so he doesn't really have "good size" - at best he has "typical size". He does play good defense and doesn't really have any glaring weaknesses - although I don't see him having much versatility at the next level as there probably aren't many 3s he can guard - they average almost 6'8" and can pretty much match his athleticism.

 

[everyoneneedsasmil]

Harris is more highly rated for two reason. He was an ELITE defender last year, and he's not yet 20 years old despite being a sophomore. The former is actually a big deal because few players that aren't specialists actually project to be valuable at the defensive end while also having Harris' offensive skills. The latter means he still has a lot of development available. NBA teams draft for what a player can be, not necessarily what he is today. Harris' age means he could have a high ceiling, and his well-rounded game so far means he has a pretty high floor. Both of those things improve his stock.

Payne, meanwhile, is 23 years old (more than 3 years older than Harris). Players typically do not improve much when they are older. That's not to say Payne isn't valuable. A true stretch 4 with both size and athleticism is great. But at the same time he projects to be a weak defender and rebounder at the next level. For a young guy, NBA teams might project them to fill out, get stronger, and be more valuable around the basket. For a guy like Payne, they see a great shooter and efficient scorer who probably will need to be hidden defensively on the bench.

 

[Sbee]

payne's very good from outside when he's completely left alone, he will need to improve his release a lot in the NBA. he'll be guarded by guys who can close out on him and not big slow plodders like he faced in the big ten.

 

[everyoneneedsasmil]

I think a Payne best case scenario is someone like Ryan Anderson. Now, if we were sure he'd be the second coming of Anderson, Payne would be a top 5-7 pick. That's how valuable an elite shooter with passable rebounding can be. If that's his future, the Pistons should take him at 8.

 

[Sbee]

Just saw a tweet that he had it since January but it didn't get diagnosed. On one hand it hurt us because he got gassed so much but on the other hand they might have sat him when he was helping us.

 

[Sbee]

Harris just measured out at 6'2", that's going to hurt him. payne 6'9"

 

[gotime909]

Heard Harris was skipping the drills?

 

[Sbee]

Heard Harris was skipping the drills?

yes, at the advice of his agent. 6'4" is pretty average for the 2 spot in the NBA, being 6'2" means that you should have better ball skills. either way he could defend the 2 very well in the NBA, he was up against a lot of taller guards and did well last year

 

[everyoneneedsasmil]

Harris is going to have a lot to prove in workouts now. Might slide into the late lottery.

 

[gotime909]

Harris is going to have a lot to prove in workouts now. Might slide into the late lottery.

I was always surprised he was projected so high to begin with.

 

[Spartanmack]

I guess this means his vertical is better than we thought. He's probably gonna get hurt by that - the average starting 2 in the NBA is 6'5.25" and backups average 6'4.5". The mode is 6'5" and the shortest is 6'2" and the worst players at that level are probably as good as the best he's guarded so far - certainly much tougher than the typical B1G 2. Again, never understood why he was projected so high but for his sake I hope it happens.

 

[everyoneneedsasmil]

The height actually isn't so big of a deal, plays don't defend with the tops of their heads (as the saying goes). The real problem is that he didn't have long arms to make up for it. If he doesn't test really well athletically, I definitely see a drop coming.

As for why he was projected so high, because he does so many things well. He's not the best shooter, but his two years show that he is a good shooter, who will legitimately space the floor. He's not a great ball-handler, but he's smart enough to play within his skills. He was legitimately an elite defender (compare that to other 2 guards in the lottery, many of them are patently bad defenders). He has generally shown a high IQ on the court. He'll never be a superstar, but he's almost too versatile to wash out. If he can become a high quality role player, that's honestly about as much as would normally be expected from a 10-12 pick.

 

[Spartanmack]

Those characteristics explain a well rounded player but lottery picks don't go to the jack of all trades, master of none type guys. Unless he's Eric Snow good on defense, even at 6'4" he wasn't going to be all that versatile - at 6'2" he's not gonna be checking many nba 3s.

 

[everyoneneedsasmil]

I think if you were to realistically look back over prospects, a lot of them were drafted without a specific elite skill. Look at Jeff Green. He was drafted 5th overall and was never great at anything. What was Mike Conley (4th in that same year) considered elite at?

Look at this current draft even. Julius Randle isn't truly elite at anything. He has a ton of hype as a strong post player, but his production wasn't elite, his athleticism isn't elite, and his measurements weren't elite. Being able to do a few things really well is still valuable. Keep in mind that most lottery picks don't become stars. After the top 10, lottery picks generally end up as role players if they even stick around long term.

 

[Spartanmack]

I hear you but Julius randle is a 19 year old, 6'9" 250lbs forward with a decent post game and double digit rebounds - 9th in the country but only 1 other kid in the top 10 plays in a real conference. He had some ups and downs but he is elite and a legitimate lottery pick.

Mike Conley led the B1G in assists w/ 6.1 per game and had some big tournament games. Granted he probably got too much credit as I could probably average 3 assists if I had Greg Oden to pass the ball to. And more importantly, ex-Durante and Oden, 2007 was a pretty weak draft year. I know Oden has been a bust but at draft time he was a legitimate top 2 pick.