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NFL analyst Warren Sharp considers the Detroit Lions’ 2024 NFL Draft selections to be the “Most Valuable Draft Class” based on a new metric.
Sharp has come up with Draft Capital Over Expectation (DCOE), a formula that compiles mock drafts and big boards from reputable sources in order to assign a “value” to each draft-eligible player.
The metric then considers what draft capital was used for those picks. DCOE assigns a value associated with the averaged expected spot for the player and compares it to the spot where the player was drafted. Used a second-round pick on a guy that most thought would go in the fifth? You spent a lot on something much less valuable. Conversely, spend a fifth-round pick on a first-round talent that fell farther than expected and you spent very little for a “more valuable” player.
According to Sharp’s DCOE, the Detroit Lions came out on top.
Despite losing significant value on the Giovanni Manu pick, the Lions were cited by Sharp for “receiving substantial value in four of their six picks.”
Those picks were Terrion Arnold, Ennis Rakestraw, Mekhi Wingo, and Christian Mahogany. Mahogany is considered the highest value pick of the class as he was frequently mocked to go in the top-100, but was selected at pick 210.
Wingo was selected 80 places later than DCOE predicted, Rakestraw was 21 past the expected number, and Arnold went 24th while the model suggested 16th overall.
DCOE does claim that the Lions overreached for Sione Vaki by 19 picks and that Manu was expected to go undrafted, meaning an extra amount was lost due to the Lions trading up to the fourth round for him.
The Dolphins, Chiefs, Steelers, and Eagles subsequently followed Detroit as the most valuable draft classes.
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Sharp has come up with Draft Capital Over Expectation (DCOE), a formula that compiles mock drafts and big boards from reputable sources in order to assign a “value” to each draft-eligible player.
best value 2024 NFL draft classes
1. Lions
2. Dolphins
3. Chiefs
4. Steelers
5. Eagles
6. Saints
7. Ravens
8. Broncos
9. Vikings
10. Rams
see pic for 1-32 plus methodology
READ FOR FULL ANALYSIS:Most & Least Valuable 2024 NFL Draft Classes
team-by-team & round-by-round analysis to followpic.twitter.com/7civLHt5zD
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) April 27, 2024
The metric then considers what draft capital was used for those picks. DCOE assigns a value associated with the averaged expected spot for the player and compares it to the spot where the player was drafted. Used a second-round pick on a guy that most thought would go in the fifth? You spent a lot on something much less valuable. Conversely, spend a fifth-round pick on a first-round talent that fell farther than expected and you spent very little for a “more valuable” player.
According to Sharp’s DCOE, the Detroit Lions came out on top.
Despite losing significant value on the Giovanni Manu pick, the Lions were cited by Sharp for “receiving substantial value in four of their six picks.”
Those picks were Terrion Arnold, Ennis Rakestraw, Mekhi Wingo, and Christian Mahogany. Mahogany is considered the highest value pick of the class as he was frequently mocked to go in the top-100, but was selected at pick 210.
Related
Presenting the Detroit Lions draft class of 2024
Wingo was selected 80 places later than DCOE predicted, Rakestraw was 21 past the expected number, and Arnold went 24th while the model suggested 16th overall.
DCOE does claim that the Lions overreached for Sione Vaki by 19 picks and that Manu was expected to go undrafted, meaning an extra amount was lost due to the Lions trading up to the fourth round for him.
The Dolphins, Chiefs, Steelers, and Eagles subsequently followed Detroit as the most valuable draft classes.
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