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mhughes0021
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1
Luke Joeckel
Kansas City Chiefs (2-14)
COLLEGE: Texas A&M
AGE: 21
HT: 6-6
WT: 306
POS: OT
Pick analysis: Joeckel can play a huge role this season as the immediate starter at right tackle, and could become the left tackle of the future. Joeckel is a complete package, a gifted pass-blocker who utilizes great technique and also brings power in the run game.
Free agency factor: Branden Albert was franchised, but Joeckel could replace him next year on the left side if the Chiefs let him walk, saving them a ton of money at a premium position. I don't think any moves they make in 2013 free agency will play into this pick.
2
Eric Fisher
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14)
COLLEGE: Central Michigan
AGE: 22
HT: 6-7
WT: 306
POS: OT
Pick analysis: The Jags really need help on the pass rush, but they can get help there in Round 2. In taking Fisher, they improve their situation at left tackle, and there's no certainty that incumbent Eugene Monroe will be around in 2014. The Jags will never know what they have at QB if they can't do a better job in pass protection.
Free agency factor: The Jags could re-think this pick based on need if they can't find any pass-rush help in free agency. They have some cap space to add, but my guess is the team will be really focused on improving on several years of weak drafts.
3
Sharrif Floyd *
Oakland Raiders (4-12)
COLLEGE: Florida
AGE: 20
HT: 6-3
WT: 297
POS: DT
Pick analysis: The Raiders are in desperate need of young talent on the defensive line after a year where they were far too often gashed by the run. Floyd is a dynamic young talent, has played inside and on the edge and uses great leverage and power to drive blockers back and blow up plays.
Free agency factor: The future for Carson Palmer is a question mark because of his massive contract, and I can see the Raiders taking a hard look at a QB with this pick, even if the value range doesn't line up well. The Raiders also must find upgrades at linebacker. All in all, free agency shouldn't have much of an affect on this selection.
4
Dee Milliner *
Philadelphia Eagles (4-12)
COLLEGE: Alabama
AGE: 21
HT: 6-0
WT: 201
POS: CB
Pick analysis: Nnamdi Asomugha won't be wearing an Eagles uniform in 2013, and in a division with Eli Manning, Tony Romo and Robert Griffin III, the Eagles can't simply attempt to piece together the secondary. They need talent, and Milliner offers the best cornerback talent in the draft. Not a tough pick.
Free-agency factor: There isn't much in the way of top-end talent available in free agency if you want to improve your secondary, so I'm not sure any shopping will change the basis for this pick.
PLAYER CARD
5
Ezekiel Ansah
Detroit Lions (4-12)
COLLEGE: BYU
AGE: 23
HT: 6-5
WT: 271
POS: DE
Pick analysis: The Lions have some glaring holes at defensive end with Kyle Vanden Bosch and Cliff Avril headed elsewhere, but that also could create an opportunity for an upgrade. Ansah is raw in terms of football skills, but he can develop into an explosive pass-rusher in that scheme, with strength to hold up against the run.
Free-agency factor: The Lions don't have the cap space to throw major dollars around, so they need to get the best player available at defensive end, cornerback or at offensive tackle. I don't think free agency will have a big impact on this pick.
6
Dion Jordan
Cleveland Browns (5-11)
COLLEGE: Oregon
AGE: 23
HT: 6-6
WT: 248
POS: OLB
Pick analysis: The Browns had one of the worst pass rushes in the league last year, even with Jabaal Sheard around. Jordan is a long, explosive pass-rusher with freakish athleticism and an ability to work in space. This is a guy you want to unleash in a 3-4.
Free-agency factor: The Browns could be looking for some pass-rush help, but they won't find a player with better value than Jordan for their system. Yes, the Browns could still make a move for a quarterback, but I'm quite certain they won't use this pick for one if they can't add one via free agency or trade.
7
Geno Smith
Arizona Cardinals (5-11)
COLLEGE: West Virginia
AGE: 22
HT: 6-2
WT: 218
POS: QB
Pick analysis: What stands out with Smith is his ball placement -- he can be extremely accurate when he's making the right reads, something he did often in 2012. Arm strength is good, not elite, and you can certainly contend that any good QB might put up good numbers in the system he was in, and with the receivers he had. It's not a great value on my board, but it's a major need pick. Smith's pro day is Thursday, and you can be certain the Cardinals will be present.
Free-agency factor: See any big QBs in free agency that offer any more hope than Smith? The Cardinals have locked up Brian Hoyer as an insurance policy, but I'd be surprised if this or their second-round pick isn't a QB.
8
Jarvis Jones *
Buffalo Bills (6-10)
COLLEGE: Georgia
AGE: 23
HT: 6-2
WT: 245
POS: OLB
Pick analysis: Want to guarantee an improvement in your pass rush? Here's your safe pick. Jones has been exceptional for two years now against elite competition, and demands help when he comes off the edge. He's not Von Miller in terms of his athleticism, but he has the chance to produce at a slightly lower level, making him a good value at this slot.
Free-agency factor: The Bills spent a lot in free agency last year, and won't be as active this year. Quarterback could come into play at this pick because of the lack of options on the market. But if Arizona takes Smith, I don't like the value here, and they'd be better served finding a QB in Round 2.
9
Barkevious Mingo *
New York Jets (6-10)
COLLEGE: LSU
AGE: 22
HT: 6-4
WT: 242
POS: OLB
Pick analysis: It's about time the Jets found an athletic difference-maker on the edge for Rex Ryan. The interior of the defensive line should be a strength with Muhammad Wilkerson and Quinton Coples, but they need edge speed. Mingo is a freak athlete, and could become a star with the right coaching.
Free-agency factor: The Jets are pretty tapped out, and won't be able to find a player of Mingo's caliber on the market. Remember, they also need to figure out the future at QB, but I think they'll look at QBs further down the board.
10
Jonathan Cooper
Tennessee Titans (6-10)
COLLEGE: North Carolina
AGE: 23
HT: 6-2
WT: 311
POS: G
Pick analysis: Adding Cooper just provides an immediate upgrade on the interior of your offensive line. A complete player who gets a great punch and moves really well for his size, he can run block well, pull with ease, move exceptionally well in the screen game and hit moving targets.
Free-agency factor: The Titans are pretty tight against the cap for 2013, so I don't expect free agency to have much impact on the decision they make with this pick.
11
Lane Johnson
San Diego Chargers (7-9)
COLLEGE: Oklahoma
AGE: 22
HT: 6-6
WT: 303
POS: OT
Pick analysis: A really good player who is only going to get better, Johnson can become the successor to Jared Gaither at left tackle. Injuries along the offensive line have really weakened the offense over the past couple of seasons, and Philip Rivers has taken a step back because of it. Johnson, a former junior college quarterback, is a pretty gifted athlete for his size, and has been a star during the evaluation process going on now.
Free-agency factor: The Chargers could look at tackle in free agency, but they don't have a lot of money, and can't simply cut Gaither and save money because even if they set him loose, he counts against the cap to the tune of $6 million in 2013. They need to use the draft to upgrade at the position.
12
Cordarrelle Patterson *
Miami Dolphins (7-9)
COLLEGE: Tennessee
AGE: 21
HT: 6-2
WT: 216
POS: WR
Pick analysis: He needs work as a route-runner, but Patterson is a potential difference-maker in the passing game. He can go up and get it, take the top off defenses and keep safeties deep because of his speed, and he's a big, physical, shifty runner with the ball in his hands.
Free-agency factor: If the Dolphins make a splash move and add a player such as Mike Wallace or Greg Jennings, they could go in another direction at this spot. They certainly could be thinking tackle if Jake Long moves on.
13
Star Lotulelei
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
COLLEGE: Utah
AGE: 23
HT: 6-2
WT: 311
POS: DT
Pick analysis: This isn't the top need for the Bucs, but assuming everything checks out for Lotulelei on the medical front, he'd be a total steal here and allow Greg Schiano to create depth and make this a potentially dominant run defense going forward.
Free-agency factor: If defensive end Michael Bennett lands elsewhere in free agency, the Bucs will be looking for help at that spot. The pick of Lotulelei here would just be a steal in terms of how the board breaks.
14
Tavon Austin
Carolina Panthers (7-9)
COLLEGE: West Virginia
AGE: 21
HT: 5-8
WT: 174
POS: WR
Pick analysis: Austin can't be used in the same manner as Steve Smith, but he can add another element of explosiveness to a passing attack that could use a player with his exact skills. Smith turns 34 two weeks after the draft, and Cam Newton could use an underneath target with the capability to do some damage after the catch.
Free-agency factor: The Panthers lack the flexibility to add splash in the passing game via free agency, so I don't see the process doing anything to diminish the value Austin could add.
15
Sheldon Richardson *
New Orleans Saints (7-9)
COLLEGE: Missouri
AGE: 24
HT: 6-2
WT: 294
POS: DT
Pick analysis: The Saints should draft the best defensive player available, starting up front. Richardson is an active defender who can take on multiple blocks at the point of attack. Left one-on-one, he can penetrate and cause problems in the backfield, but he also moves down the line well and makes a lot of tackles from this position.
Free-agency factor: The Saints need to use the draft to get better on defense, because free agency isn't going to be a good option for them with where they are currently against the cap. Free agency shouldn't change the draft strategy.
16
Kenny Vaccaro
St. Louis Rams (7-8-1)
COLLEGE: Texas
AGE: 22
HT: 6-0
WT: 214
POS: S
Pick analysis: With two first-round picks, the Rams can target maximum value ahead of top need, but Vaccaro offers a check in both boxes. Extremely versatile, Vaccaro is sound in coverage, takes great angles and makes very good reads. But he's a physical player who can assist in run support and be effective near the line of scrimmage. Play Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson four times a year, and versatility at safety can't be overstated.
Free-agency factor: I expect the Rams to be shoppers for skill-position help on offense, where they must do more to help Sam Bradford. But again, with two first-round picks, the draft is a form of cheap free agency as well.
17
Tyler Eifert *
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8)
COLLEGE: Notre Dame
AGE: 22
HT: 6-6
WT: 250
POS: TE
Pick analysis: Mike Wallace might be exiting, but in Eifert the Steelers add a different kind of matchup headache for defenses. Eifert has the speed to stretch the seam and also develop routes to the edges, and can't be effectively covered by anybody. He's too tall for corners and safeties, too fast for linebackers.
Free-agency factor: The Steelers need to make tough decisions regarding their cap on defense (we've already seen it with James Harrison), so they also could look at a good young pass-rusher here. Safety, D-line and outside linebacker are all positions they could consider.
18
Chance Warmack
Dallas Cowboys (8-8)
COLLEGE: Alabama
AGE: 21
HT: 6-2
WT: 314
POS: G
Pick analysis: Sticking with this pick from the previous mock, Warmack is an immediate upgrade on the interior of the offensive line. The ceiling of a Pro Bowl guard, Warmack is an absolute plow in the run game, and has very good instincts as a pass-blocker, picking up stunts and blitzes extremely well.
Free-agency factor: The Cowboys would have to be creative financially to find an offensive lineman with Warmack's talent on the open market, so this isn't a pick I think will shift based on buying season.
19
Manti Te'o
New York Giants (9-7)
COLLEGE: Notre Dame
AGE: 22
HT: 6-1
WT: 241
POS: LB
Pick analysis: The Giants could use an upgrade at middle linebacker, and Te'o offers a pick-and-play upgrade. Say what you want about his 40 time, when you roll the tape you see a guy that has football speed because he makes reads at a faster rate than so many others.
Free-agency factor: There really isn't a much on the market at this position, and this is a draft slot where the Giants can target a middle linebacker and expect a Week 1 starter.
20
D.J. Fluker *
Chicago Bears (10-6)
COLLEGE: Alabama
AGE: 21
HT: 6-5
WT: 339
POS: OT
Pick analysis: I also can see wide receiver as a possible fit here, but Fluker is a good fit and a good value on the board. A dominant right tackle, he has arms that work like hydraulics, and what you get is a decent pass-blocker but an absolute mauler in the run game. The Bears don't just need protection, they need more push in the run, and Fluker can provide some.
Free-agency factor: Phil Emery should be willing to write a check if he can add some offensive line help in free agency, and that could play into what the Bears do with this pick. But even if they add a good tackle, I don't think it eliminates the possibility they draft one.
21
Alec Ogletree *
Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)
COLLEGE: Georgia
AGE: 21
HT: 6-2
WT: 242
POS: LB
Pick analysis: Last year the Bengals hit a home run when Marvin Lewis pushed to bring in a linebacker with some very good tape but a few character questions. Vontaze Burfict was a value home run. Ogletree has some of the best tape in this draft, and can be an immediate upgrade over what the Bengals got last year from Rey Maualuga.
Free-agency factor: I can see the Bengals looking at another wide receiver in free agency, and they also may have to replace Andre Smith, so what happens this week and next on the market could certainly shift the direction of this pick.
22
Justin Hunter *
St. Louis Rams (from WAS) (7-8-1)
COLLEGE: Tennessee
AGE: 21
HT: 6-4
WT: 196
POS: WR
Pick analysis: Even if the Rams land a wide receiver in free agency, they should be looking for some young talent at the position in the draft. Hunter has size, speed and creates a home run threat on the edge. He's got some wiggle, given his height, and can create separation with his feet outside of simply running away from people. Where Hunter must get better is in the ability to deal with physical defenders; he's not very strong, which could make press coverage a problem at the next level. He's just not a very physical player yet.
Free-agency factor: The Rams could either keep or lose the services of one or both of Brandon Gibson and Danny Amendola. Again, they also could add a pass-catcher, but I think they'll draft one regardless.
23
Keenan Allen
Minnesota Vikings (10-6)
COLLEGE: California
AGE: 20
HT: 6-2
WT: 206
POS: WR
Pick analysis: The Vikings now very much need a wide receiver after the Harvin trade, and in Allen they get maybe the safest projection on the board at the position. Allen just has a ton of polish, with great hands and an ability not only to create space but also to find it. He works back to the ball and can run after the catch. This kid would have been a star at safety but is still just 20 years old and already plays with veteran chops at wide receiver. Line him up all over.
Free-agency factor: Even if the Vikings go out and get a wide receiver in free agency, I'm not sure they still don't want to add some assurances in the passing game. Think of it this way: If they lose Harvin but get a player like Allen and a good free agent at wide receiver, will you really think the trade was such a hit to their potential? I won't.
24
Menelik Watson *
Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
COLLEGE: Florida St.
AGE: 24
HT: 6-5
WT: 310
POS: OT
Pick analysis: Whether he ends up at left tackle, right tackle or even as a potentially dominant guard, Watson has a high ceiling and the Colts have to get better along the offensive line. The franchise has arrived at quarterback -- time to protect him.
Free-agency factor: The Colts could make a run at offensive line help in free agency, which could shift this pick to defense. But if they don't, protecting Andrew Luck has to be a priority.
25
Sylvester Williams
Minnesota Vikings (10-6) (from Seattle)
COLLEGE: North Carolina
AGE: 24
HT: 6-3
WT: 313
POS: DT
Pick analysis: The Vikings are old on the defensive line, both inside and on the edges, and while it's not a major need in terms of what they produced on the line in 2012, it could be one soon. Williams is a mature, powerful player who can contribute immediately.
Free-agency factor: By securing a pass-catcher with their first pick, they can help reduce the age question on the defensive line here. You figure wide receiver will be a bigger focus in free agency than the D-line, so they can take advantage of a deep draft at defensive tackle.
26
Eddie Lacy *
Green Bay Packers (11-5)
COLLEGE: Alabama
AGE: 22
HT: 5-11
WT: 231
POS: RB
Pick analysis: The Packers have lacked a workhorse with any explosiveness at running back, and that's what Lacy offers. Yes, he ran behind a great line, but he's a great combination of power and open-field shiftiness. He's the guy in this class who can run with power but also break off some big runs. He also catches the ball well.
Free-agency factor: You're not going to spend big money for a running back in free agency, and the market doesn't offer much anyway. Even if the Packers add a cheap veteran at running back they could still make this pick.
27
DeAndre Hopkins *
Houston Texans (12-4)
COLLEGE: Clemson
AGE: 20
HT: 6-1
WT: 214
POS: WR
Pick analysis: Andre Johnson is now officially old by the standards of the position, and although effective, he could use some help. In Hopkins, the Texans add a player with strong hands in traffic, big-time explosiveness after the catch and an ability to create space both underneath and over the top because he has great speed and is able to get defenders to bite on fakes. Big-play potential for Houston's offense.
Free-agency factor: The Texans don't have the cap space to be a major player in free agency, so pass-catching help is likely coming via the draft. Here's your fit.
28
Desmond Trufant
Denver Broncos (13-3)
COLLEGE: Washington
AGE: 22
HT: 6-0
WT: 190
POS: CB
Pick analysis: Champ Bailey may be good when he's 50 at this rate, but the Broncos could still use another corner, and Trufant is an experienced player who can help immediately because he can mirror receivers both on the edges and in the slot. He utilizes great footwork, has underrated ball skills and can turn and run with anybody.
Free-agency factor: The Broncos are built to win now, and can't spend much in free agency at cornerback, where there just isn't much value to be found. I can see them adding a pass-rusher.
29
Xavier Rhodes *
New England Patriots (12-4)
COLLEGE: Florida St.
AGE: 22
HT: 6-1
WT: 210
POS: CB
Pick analysis: Aqib Talib probably is headed elsewhere, and corner again becomes a need for the Patriots. Rhodes draws some split opinions, but where he really excels is as a press corner who can exert his physical will on a receiver. He can really mirror guys, and uses his hands well. He's not great against the run, but the Patriots need another guy who can cover, and that's Rhodes.
Free-agency factor: The Patriots have some decisions to make on the offensive line, and they also could be in play for a wide receiver. If they do add a cornerback in free agency they could shift the thinking with this pick. I also think they should add a safety in the draft and there are some good ones available at this slot.
30
Bjoern Werner *
Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
COLLEGE: Florida St.
AGE: 22
HT: 6-3
WT: 266
POS: DE
Pick analysis: John Abraham was released, and this pass-rush looks pretty bleak without an addition. Werner's stock has taken a recent hit, but he was extremely productive at Florida State as a pass-rusher and can step into a 4-3 ready to contribute. The key for him will be whether he continues to develop and adds wrinkles to his repertoire because he was late to football. But Atlanta needs a pass-rusher, period.
Free-agency factor: The Falcons don't have a lot of flexibility but could be in the market for a 4-3 defensive end. If they can add one, however, they still might want to draft one. Cornerback is also spot they need to look for value, and if Rhodes doesn't go to New England, he could land here.
31
Datone Jones
San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1)
COLLEGE: UCLA
AGE: 22
HT: 6-4
WT: 283
POS: DE
Pick analysis: Justin Smith will be 34 in September, and the 49ers need to think about who could take over for him long term, and spell him in the interim. Jones can provide an interior pass-rushing presence. He gets a great burst, and knows how to take on blocks, use leverage and find seams.
Free-agency factor: This roster is too loaded for the 49ers to make significant moves in free agency. They also have a boatload of draft picks and could be active in moving around, trying to maximize picks or even moving way up on the board.
32
Matt Elam *
Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
COLLEGE: Florida
AGE: 21
HT: 5-10
WT: 208
POS: S
Pick analysis: We know they need to find a young safety, and Elam would be a great fit. Not a true center fielder, he likes to play near the line of scrimmage and use his instincts to help blow up plays. He covers the slot well, and has pretty good speed to run with all but the fastest wide receivers. Won't be a liability in coverage, and he has good skills as a blitzer, too.
Free-agency factor: The Ravens need to shore up some holes on defense via free agency, so you could see them going with a safety, an interior linebacker or a pass-rusher here depending on what happens over the next couple of weeks.
Luke Joeckel
Kansas City Chiefs (2-14)
COLLEGE: Texas A&M
AGE: 21
HT: 6-6
WT: 306
POS: OT
Pick analysis: Joeckel can play a huge role this season as the immediate starter at right tackle, and could become the left tackle of the future. Joeckel is a complete package, a gifted pass-blocker who utilizes great technique and also brings power in the run game.
Free agency factor: Branden Albert was franchised, but Joeckel could replace him next year on the left side if the Chiefs let him walk, saving them a ton of money at a premium position. I don't think any moves they make in 2013 free agency will play into this pick.
2
Eric Fisher
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14)
COLLEGE: Central Michigan
AGE: 22
HT: 6-7
WT: 306
POS: OT
Pick analysis: The Jags really need help on the pass rush, but they can get help there in Round 2. In taking Fisher, they improve their situation at left tackle, and there's no certainty that incumbent Eugene Monroe will be around in 2014. The Jags will never know what they have at QB if they can't do a better job in pass protection.
Free agency factor: The Jags could re-think this pick based on need if they can't find any pass-rush help in free agency. They have some cap space to add, but my guess is the team will be really focused on improving on several years of weak drafts.
3
Sharrif Floyd *
Oakland Raiders (4-12)
COLLEGE: Florida
AGE: 20
HT: 6-3
WT: 297
POS: DT
Pick analysis: The Raiders are in desperate need of young talent on the defensive line after a year where they were far too often gashed by the run. Floyd is a dynamic young talent, has played inside and on the edge and uses great leverage and power to drive blockers back and blow up plays.
Free agency factor: The future for Carson Palmer is a question mark because of his massive contract, and I can see the Raiders taking a hard look at a QB with this pick, even if the value range doesn't line up well. The Raiders also must find upgrades at linebacker. All in all, free agency shouldn't have much of an affect on this selection.
4
Dee Milliner *
Philadelphia Eagles (4-12)
COLLEGE: Alabama
AGE: 21
HT: 6-0
WT: 201
POS: CB
Pick analysis: Nnamdi Asomugha won't be wearing an Eagles uniform in 2013, and in a division with Eli Manning, Tony Romo and Robert Griffin III, the Eagles can't simply attempt to piece together the secondary. They need talent, and Milliner offers the best cornerback talent in the draft. Not a tough pick.
Free-agency factor: There isn't much in the way of top-end talent available in free agency if you want to improve your secondary, so I'm not sure any shopping will change the basis for this pick.
PLAYER CARD
5
Ezekiel Ansah
Detroit Lions (4-12)
COLLEGE: BYU
AGE: 23
HT: 6-5
WT: 271
POS: DE
Pick analysis: The Lions have some glaring holes at defensive end with Kyle Vanden Bosch and Cliff Avril headed elsewhere, but that also could create an opportunity for an upgrade. Ansah is raw in terms of football skills, but he can develop into an explosive pass-rusher in that scheme, with strength to hold up against the run.
Free-agency factor: The Lions don't have the cap space to throw major dollars around, so they need to get the best player available at defensive end, cornerback or at offensive tackle. I don't think free agency will have a big impact on this pick.
6
Dion Jordan
Cleveland Browns (5-11)
COLLEGE: Oregon
AGE: 23
HT: 6-6
WT: 248
POS: OLB
Pick analysis: The Browns had one of the worst pass rushes in the league last year, even with Jabaal Sheard around. Jordan is a long, explosive pass-rusher with freakish athleticism and an ability to work in space. This is a guy you want to unleash in a 3-4.
Free-agency factor: The Browns could be looking for some pass-rush help, but they won't find a player with better value than Jordan for their system. Yes, the Browns could still make a move for a quarterback, but I'm quite certain they won't use this pick for one if they can't add one via free agency or trade.
7
Geno Smith
Arizona Cardinals (5-11)
COLLEGE: West Virginia
AGE: 22
HT: 6-2
WT: 218
POS: QB
Pick analysis: What stands out with Smith is his ball placement -- he can be extremely accurate when he's making the right reads, something he did often in 2012. Arm strength is good, not elite, and you can certainly contend that any good QB might put up good numbers in the system he was in, and with the receivers he had. It's not a great value on my board, but it's a major need pick. Smith's pro day is Thursday, and you can be certain the Cardinals will be present.
Free-agency factor: See any big QBs in free agency that offer any more hope than Smith? The Cardinals have locked up Brian Hoyer as an insurance policy, but I'd be surprised if this or their second-round pick isn't a QB.
8
Jarvis Jones *
Buffalo Bills (6-10)
COLLEGE: Georgia
AGE: 23
HT: 6-2
WT: 245
POS: OLB
Pick analysis: Want to guarantee an improvement in your pass rush? Here's your safe pick. Jones has been exceptional for two years now against elite competition, and demands help when he comes off the edge. He's not Von Miller in terms of his athleticism, but he has the chance to produce at a slightly lower level, making him a good value at this slot.
Free-agency factor: The Bills spent a lot in free agency last year, and won't be as active this year. Quarterback could come into play at this pick because of the lack of options on the market. But if Arizona takes Smith, I don't like the value here, and they'd be better served finding a QB in Round 2.
9
Barkevious Mingo *
New York Jets (6-10)
COLLEGE: LSU
AGE: 22
HT: 6-4
WT: 242
POS: OLB
Pick analysis: It's about time the Jets found an athletic difference-maker on the edge for Rex Ryan. The interior of the defensive line should be a strength with Muhammad Wilkerson and Quinton Coples, but they need edge speed. Mingo is a freak athlete, and could become a star with the right coaching.
Free-agency factor: The Jets are pretty tapped out, and won't be able to find a player of Mingo's caliber on the market. Remember, they also need to figure out the future at QB, but I think they'll look at QBs further down the board.
10
Jonathan Cooper
Tennessee Titans (6-10)
COLLEGE: North Carolina
AGE: 23
HT: 6-2
WT: 311
POS: G
Pick analysis: Adding Cooper just provides an immediate upgrade on the interior of your offensive line. A complete player who gets a great punch and moves really well for his size, he can run block well, pull with ease, move exceptionally well in the screen game and hit moving targets.
Free-agency factor: The Titans are pretty tight against the cap for 2013, so I don't expect free agency to have much impact on the decision they make with this pick.
11
Lane Johnson
San Diego Chargers (7-9)
COLLEGE: Oklahoma
AGE: 22
HT: 6-6
WT: 303
POS: OT
Pick analysis: A really good player who is only going to get better, Johnson can become the successor to Jared Gaither at left tackle. Injuries along the offensive line have really weakened the offense over the past couple of seasons, and Philip Rivers has taken a step back because of it. Johnson, a former junior college quarterback, is a pretty gifted athlete for his size, and has been a star during the evaluation process going on now.
Free-agency factor: The Chargers could look at tackle in free agency, but they don't have a lot of money, and can't simply cut Gaither and save money because even if they set him loose, he counts against the cap to the tune of $6 million in 2013. They need to use the draft to upgrade at the position.
12
Cordarrelle Patterson *
Miami Dolphins (7-9)
COLLEGE: Tennessee
AGE: 21
HT: 6-2
WT: 216
POS: WR
Pick analysis: He needs work as a route-runner, but Patterson is a potential difference-maker in the passing game. He can go up and get it, take the top off defenses and keep safeties deep because of his speed, and he's a big, physical, shifty runner with the ball in his hands.
Free-agency factor: If the Dolphins make a splash move and add a player such as Mike Wallace or Greg Jennings, they could go in another direction at this spot. They certainly could be thinking tackle if Jake Long moves on.
13
Star Lotulelei
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
COLLEGE: Utah
AGE: 23
HT: 6-2
WT: 311
POS: DT
Pick analysis: This isn't the top need for the Bucs, but assuming everything checks out for Lotulelei on the medical front, he'd be a total steal here and allow Greg Schiano to create depth and make this a potentially dominant run defense going forward.
Free-agency factor: If defensive end Michael Bennett lands elsewhere in free agency, the Bucs will be looking for help at that spot. The pick of Lotulelei here would just be a steal in terms of how the board breaks.
14
Tavon Austin
Carolina Panthers (7-9)
COLLEGE: West Virginia
AGE: 21
HT: 5-8
WT: 174
POS: WR
Pick analysis: Austin can't be used in the same manner as Steve Smith, but he can add another element of explosiveness to a passing attack that could use a player with his exact skills. Smith turns 34 two weeks after the draft, and Cam Newton could use an underneath target with the capability to do some damage after the catch.
Free-agency factor: The Panthers lack the flexibility to add splash in the passing game via free agency, so I don't see the process doing anything to diminish the value Austin could add.
15
Sheldon Richardson *
New Orleans Saints (7-9)
COLLEGE: Missouri
AGE: 24
HT: 6-2
WT: 294
POS: DT
Pick analysis: The Saints should draft the best defensive player available, starting up front. Richardson is an active defender who can take on multiple blocks at the point of attack. Left one-on-one, he can penetrate and cause problems in the backfield, but he also moves down the line well and makes a lot of tackles from this position.
Free-agency factor: The Saints need to use the draft to get better on defense, because free agency isn't going to be a good option for them with where they are currently against the cap. Free agency shouldn't change the draft strategy.
16
Kenny Vaccaro
St. Louis Rams (7-8-1)
COLLEGE: Texas
AGE: 22
HT: 6-0
WT: 214
POS: S
Pick analysis: With two first-round picks, the Rams can target maximum value ahead of top need, but Vaccaro offers a check in both boxes. Extremely versatile, Vaccaro is sound in coverage, takes great angles and makes very good reads. But he's a physical player who can assist in run support and be effective near the line of scrimmage. Play Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson four times a year, and versatility at safety can't be overstated.
Free-agency factor: I expect the Rams to be shoppers for skill-position help on offense, where they must do more to help Sam Bradford. But again, with two first-round picks, the draft is a form of cheap free agency as well.
17
Tyler Eifert *
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8)
COLLEGE: Notre Dame
AGE: 22
HT: 6-6
WT: 250
POS: TE
Pick analysis: Mike Wallace might be exiting, but in Eifert the Steelers add a different kind of matchup headache for defenses. Eifert has the speed to stretch the seam and also develop routes to the edges, and can't be effectively covered by anybody. He's too tall for corners and safeties, too fast for linebackers.
Free-agency factor: The Steelers need to make tough decisions regarding their cap on defense (we've already seen it with James Harrison), so they also could look at a good young pass-rusher here. Safety, D-line and outside linebacker are all positions they could consider.
18
Chance Warmack
Dallas Cowboys (8-8)
COLLEGE: Alabama
AGE: 21
HT: 6-2
WT: 314
POS: G
Pick analysis: Sticking with this pick from the previous mock, Warmack is an immediate upgrade on the interior of the offensive line. The ceiling of a Pro Bowl guard, Warmack is an absolute plow in the run game, and has very good instincts as a pass-blocker, picking up stunts and blitzes extremely well.
Free-agency factor: The Cowboys would have to be creative financially to find an offensive lineman with Warmack's talent on the open market, so this isn't a pick I think will shift based on buying season.
19
Manti Te'o
New York Giants (9-7)
COLLEGE: Notre Dame
AGE: 22
HT: 6-1
WT: 241
POS: LB
Pick analysis: The Giants could use an upgrade at middle linebacker, and Te'o offers a pick-and-play upgrade. Say what you want about his 40 time, when you roll the tape you see a guy that has football speed because he makes reads at a faster rate than so many others.
Free-agency factor: There really isn't a much on the market at this position, and this is a draft slot where the Giants can target a middle linebacker and expect a Week 1 starter.
20
D.J. Fluker *
Chicago Bears (10-6)
COLLEGE: Alabama
AGE: 21
HT: 6-5
WT: 339
POS: OT
Pick analysis: I also can see wide receiver as a possible fit here, but Fluker is a good fit and a good value on the board. A dominant right tackle, he has arms that work like hydraulics, and what you get is a decent pass-blocker but an absolute mauler in the run game. The Bears don't just need protection, they need more push in the run, and Fluker can provide some.
Free-agency factor: Phil Emery should be willing to write a check if he can add some offensive line help in free agency, and that could play into what the Bears do with this pick. But even if they add a good tackle, I don't think it eliminates the possibility they draft one.
21
Alec Ogletree *
Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)
COLLEGE: Georgia
AGE: 21
HT: 6-2
WT: 242
POS: LB
Pick analysis: Last year the Bengals hit a home run when Marvin Lewis pushed to bring in a linebacker with some very good tape but a few character questions. Vontaze Burfict was a value home run. Ogletree has some of the best tape in this draft, and can be an immediate upgrade over what the Bengals got last year from Rey Maualuga.
Free-agency factor: I can see the Bengals looking at another wide receiver in free agency, and they also may have to replace Andre Smith, so what happens this week and next on the market could certainly shift the direction of this pick.
22
Justin Hunter *
St. Louis Rams (from WAS) (7-8-1)
COLLEGE: Tennessee
AGE: 21
HT: 6-4
WT: 196
POS: WR
Pick analysis: Even if the Rams land a wide receiver in free agency, they should be looking for some young talent at the position in the draft. Hunter has size, speed and creates a home run threat on the edge. He's got some wiggle, given his height, and can create separation with his feet outside of simply running away from people. Where Hunter must get better is in the ability to deal with physical defenders; he's not very strong, which could make press coverage a problem at the next level. He's just not a very physical player yet.
Free-agency factor: The Rams could either keep or lose the services of one or both of Brandon Gibson and Danny Amendola. Again, they also could add a pass-catcher, but I think they'll draft one regardless.
23
Keenan Allen
Minnesota Vikings (10-6)
COLLEGE: California
AGE: 20
HT: 6-2
WT: 206
POS: WR
Pick analysis: The Vikings now very much need a wide receiver after the Harvin trade, and in Allen they get maybe the safest projection on the board at the position. Allen just has a ton of polish, with great hands and an ability not only to create space but also to find it. He works back to the ball and can run after the catch. This kid would have been a star at safety but is still just 20 years old and already plays with veteran chops at wide receiver. Line him up all over.
Free-agency factor: Even if the Vikings go out and get a wide receiver in free agency, I'm not sure they still don't want to add some assurances in the passing game. Think of it this way: If they lose Harvin but get a player like Allen and a good free agent at wide receiver, will you really think the trade was such a hit to their potential? I won't.
24
Menelik Watson *
Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
COLLEGE: Florida St.
AGE: 24
HT: 6-5
WT: 310
POS: OT
Pick analysis: Whether he ends up at left tackle, right tackle or even as a potentially dominant guard, Watson has a high ceiling and the Colts have to get better along the offensive line. The franchise has arrived at quarterback -- time to protect him.
Free-agency factor: The Colts could make a run at offensive line help in free agency, which could shift this pick to defense. But if they don't, protecting Andrew Luck has to be a priority.
25
Sylvester Williams
Minnesota Vikings (10-6) (from Seattle)
COLLEGE: North Carolina
AGE: 24
HT: 6-3
WT: 313
POS: DT
Pick analysis: The Vikings are old on the defensive line, both inside and on the edges, and while it's not a major need in terms of what they produced on the line in 2012, it could be one soon. Williams is a mature, powerful player who can contribute immediately.
Free-agency factor: By securing a pass-catcher with their first pick, they can help reduce the age question on the defensive line here. You figure wide receiver will be a bigger focus in free agency than the D-line, so they can take advantage of a deep draft at defensive tackle.
26
Eddie Lacy *
Green Bay Packers (11-5)
COLLEGE: Alabama
AGE: 22
HT: 5-11
WT: 231
POS: RB
Pick analysis: The Packers have lacked a workhorse with any explosiveness at running back, and that's what Lacy offers. Yes, he ran behind a great line, but he's a great combination of power and open-field shiftiness. He's the guy in this class who can run with power but also break off some big runs. He also catches the ball well.
Free-agency factor: You're not going to spend big money for a running back in free agency, and the market doesn't offer much anyway. Even if the Packers add a cheap veteran at running back they could still make this pick.
27
DeAndre Hopkins *
Houston Texans (12-4)
COLLEGE: Clemson
AGE: 20
HT: 6-1
WT: 214
POS: WR
Pick analysis: Andre Johnson is now officially old by the standards of the position, and although effective, he could use some help. In Hopkins, the Texans add a player with strong hands in traffic, big-time explosiveness after the catch and an ability to create space both underneath and over the top because he has great speed and is able to get defenders to bite on fakes. Big-play potential for Houston's offense.
Free-agency factor: The Texans don't have the cap space to be a major player in free agency, so pass-catching help is likely coming via the draft. Here's your fit.
28
Desmond Trufant
Denver Broncos (13-3)
COLLEGE: Washington
AGE: 22
HT: 6-0
WT: 190
POS: CB
Pick analysis: Champ Bailey may be good when he's 50 at this rate, but the Broncos could still use another corner, and Trufant is an experienced player who can help immediately because he can mirror receivers both on the edges and in the slot. He utilizes great footwork, has underrated ball skills and can turn and run with anybody.
Free-agency factor: The Broncos are built to win now, and can't spend much in free agency at cornerback, where there just isn't much value to be found. I can see them adding a pass-rusher.
29
Xavier Rhodes *
New England Patriots (12-4)
COLLEGE: Florida St.
AGE: 22
HT: 6-1
WT: 210
POS: CB
Pick analysis: Aqib Talib probably is headed elsewhere, and corner again becomes a need for the Patriots. Rhodes draws some split opinions, but where he really excels is as a press corner who can exert his physical will on a receiver. He can really mirror guys, and uses his hands well. He's not great against the run, but the Patriots need another guy who can cover, and that's Rhodes.
Free-agency factor: The Patriots have some decisions to make on the offensive line, and they also could be in play for a wide receiver. If they do add a cornerback in free agency they could shift the thinking with this pick. I also think they should add a safety in the draft and there are some good ones available at this slot.
30
Bjoern Werner *
Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
COLLEGE: Florida St.
AGE: 22
HT: 6-3
WT: 266
POS: DE
Pick analysis: John Abraham was released, and this pass-rush looks pretty bleak without an addition. Werner's stock has taken a recent hit, but he was extremely productive at Florida State as a pass-rusher and can step into a 4-3 ready to contribute. The key for him will be whether he continues to develop and adds wrinkles to his repertoire because he was late to football. But Atlanta needs a pass-rusher, period.
Free-agency factor: The Falcons don't have a lot of flexibility but could be in the market for a 4-3 defensive end. If they can add one, however, they still might want to draft one. Cornerback is also spot they need to look for value, and if Rhodes doesn't go to New England, he could land here.
31
Datone Jones
San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1)
COLLEGE: UCLA
AGE: 22
HT: 6-4
WT: 283
POS: DE
Pick analysis: Justin Smith will be 34 in September, and the 49ers need to think about who could take over for him long term, and spell him in the interim. Jones can provide an interior pass-rushing presence. He gets a great burst, and knows how to take on blocks, use leverage and find seams.
Free-agency factor: This roster is too loaded for the 49ers to make significant moves in free agency. They also have a boatload of draft picks and could be active in moving around, trying to maximize picks or even moving way up on the board.
32
Matt Elam *
Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
COLLEGE: Florida
AGE: 21
HT: 5-10
WT: 208
POS: S
Pick analysis: We know they need to find a young safety, and Elam would be a great fit. Not a true center fielder, he likes to play near the line of scrimmage and use his instincts to help blow up plays. He covers the slot well, and has pretty good speed to run with all but the fastest wide receivers. Won't be a liability in coverage, and he has good skills as a blitzer, too.
Free-agency factor: The Ravens need to shore up some holes on defense via free agency, so you could see them going with a safety, an interior linebacker or a pass-rusher here depending on what happens over the next couple of weeks.
