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Happy football Sunday! It’s Week 10 and the Detroit Lions are the top seed in the NFC if the season ended today. They look to maintain that status with a rare trip to Houston to play the 6-3 Texans and dangerous QB C.J. Stroud.
This is a special matchup for me, something I wrote about during the week. My wife of almost 30 years is drinking her Sunday morning coffee from a Houston-themed mug, which makes me a little more aggressively passive-aggressive in flashing and splashing around my morning brew in a Honolulu Blue Lions mug. With the game not kicking off for another 13 hours, it’s going to be a two-pot day in the cold November rain.
It should be a great matchup. Houston is breaking out their all-red uniforms, while the Lions counter in the clean all-whites. Two first-place teams looking to overcome some consequential injuries squaring off in the open-air dome on national television — it sets up to be a great Sunday night.
This is a matchup where the investment in the defensive interior and middle-of-field can really shine. Alim McNeill and former Texan DJ Reader are an excellent 1-2 punch at tackle going against the weakest part of the Texans team, their interior offensive line. Houston is shuffling that IOL deck this week, so there is some uncertainty here, but McNeill has been one of the NFL’s top interior pass rushers, and that doesn’t figure to change no matter what’s in front of him.
The recent strong play of Jack Campbell and Alex Anzalone at linebacker is important against Houston, too. Limiting the quick options for C.J. Stroud is critical. If he’s got time to hit quick slants and seams, there aren’t many better QBs than Stroud. Campbell and Anzalone haven’t been perfect in those coverage situations, but with Brian Branch aiding as a premium safety with them, it’s enough to make Stroud get away from that bread and butter of Bobby Slowik’s Shanahan-style of offense. Stroud doesn’t really make big mistakes, but he does get antsy and less aggressive when he can’t get the catch-and-run staples early on (see their game vs. Green Bay).
Leading with the defense isn’t typical for the Lions, but that’s where the Houston injuries factor in. The Texans lost top playmaking receiver Stefon Diggs for the season, and they don’t have anyone who can fill those shoes. Nico Collins, their top outside threat, is coming back off I.R. but hasn’t practiced beyond Friday’s walkthrough in more than a month. Houston lost starting LG Kenyon Green as well, facilitating the aforementioned OL shuffle. Houston is a potent offense, but the Texans are not blessed with proven quality depth anywhere but slot WR.
The recent strong play of the Lions secondary helps ease some concerns. And if the Texans do find some success on the scoreboard, that’s where the Lions own offensive cream rises to the top.
Jared Goff continues to play like an MVP front-runner. His accuracy, his decision-making, his command of the huddle and the field–the Texans defense can’t really counter that. Houston not having premier pass rusher Will Anderson is a massive loss, negating out Detroit not having regular left tackle Taylor Decker. Not having Anderson means the Texans will either take their chances in coverage behind a lesser pass rush, or alternately try to create more pressure by blitzing.
No QB is better than Goff at dissecting the blitz, and the Texans secondary–while pretty good–can’t consistently match the level of coverage the Lions pull off behind their injury-related makeshift pass rush. Houston’s secondary is vulnerable to big plays, however–notably high-risk/reward slot Jalen Pitre. He’ll be marking Amon-Ra St. Brown most of the time and that’s an advantage for the Lions All-Pro leading target. They’re also a secondary that has had some struggles in tackling after the catch, which portends well for Jahymr Gibbs catching passes out of the backfield and Sam LaPorta hitting a crosser on the dead run and leaving Devin White or Henry To’oTo’o lurching for nonexistent ankles to grab.
Then there’s special teams. The Lions hold opponents to the worst average starting field position off kickoffs. No free yards there makes for longer fields for the Texans, who are near the bottom in kick returns. The Lions injuries at linebacker do create some vulnerability on coverage units, but in Dave Fipp we trust.
Joe Mixon is the exact style of running back that has given the Lions defense some struggles in the last couple of weeks. Like Tony Pollard of Tennessee and Green Bay’s Josh Jacobs, Mixon is a powerful runner with good vision and quick feet to get through smaller creases than you’d expect for a bigger back. And for as poorly as the Houston interior offensive line has been in pass protection, they’re at least adequate in the run-blocking department.
As noted above, Houston’s secondary is a good one. A pair of rookies, safety Caden Bullock and outside CB Kamari Lassiter, have acclimated quickly to the NFL. Derek Stingley is playing like the top-10 overall pick that Houston made him back in 2022, the pick made immediately after the Lions selected Aidan Hutchinson. Eric Murray is a savvy veteran safety who is rarely fooled. Goff must continue to be sharp, or else this is a secondary that can make him pay for even small mistakes.
How the Lions replace Decker at left tackle could be quite impactful. The concept of moving All-Pro right tackle Penei Sewell to the left side isn’t as savory when factoring in that top Texans pass rusher Danielle Hunter plays against the right tackle more than 80 percent of his snaps over the last three years. Whomever is at left tackle must handle speed-based rushers Jerry Hughes and Derek Barnett. Hughes’ lack of height has always been an issue for taller tackles, which is something to watch here.
The Texans are a good football team. The Lions are a better and more complete one, and they match up well with Houston.
Lions 30, Texans 22
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This is a special matchup for me, something I wrote about during the week. My wife of almost 30 years is drinking her Sunday morning coffee from a Houston-themed mug, which makes me a little more aggressively passive-aggressive in flashing and splashing around my morning brew in a Honolulu Blue Lions mug. With the game not kicking off for another 13 hours, it’s going to be a two-pot day in the cold November rain.
It should be a great matchup. Houston is breaking out their all-red uniforms, while the Lions counter in the clean all-whites. Two first-place teams looking to overcome some consequential injuries squaring off in the open-air dome on national television — it sets up to be a great Sunday night.
Why I think the Lions will win
This is a matchup where the investment in the defensive interior and middle-of-field can really shine. Alim McNeill and former Texan DJ Reader are an excellent 1-2 punch at tackle going against the weakest part of the Texans team, their interior offensive line. Houston is shuffling that IOL deck this week, so there is some uncertainty here, but McNeill has been one of the NFL’s top interior pass rushers, and that doesn’t figure to change no matter what’s in front of him.
The recent strong play of Jack Campbell and Alex Anzalone at linebacker is important against Houston, too. Limiting the quick options for C.J. Stroud is critical. If he’s got time to hit quick slants and seams, there aren’t many better QBs than Stroud. Campbell and Anzalone haven’t been perfect in those coverage situations, but with Brian Branch aiding as a premium safety with them, it’s enough to make Stroud get away from that bread and butter of Bobby Slowik’s Shanahan-style of offense. Stroud doesn’t really make big mistakes, but he does get antsy and less aggressive when he can’t get the catch-and-run staples early on (see their game vs. Green Bay).
Leading with the defense isn’t typical for the Lions, but that’s where the Houston injuries factor in. The Texans lost top playmaking receiver Stefon Diggs for the season, and they don’t have anyone who can fill those shoes. Nico Collins, their top outside threat, is coming back off I.R. but hasn’t practiced beyond Friday’s walkthrough in more than a month. Houston lost starting LG Kenyon Green as well, facilitating the aforementioned OL shuffle. Houston is a potent offense, but the Texans are not blessed with proven quality depth anywhere but slot WR.
The recent strong play of the Lions secondary helps ease some concerns. And if the Texans do find some success on the scoreboard, that’s where the Lions own offensive cream rises to the top.
Jared Goff continues to play like an MVP front-runner. His accuracy, his decision-making, his command of the huddle and the field–the Texans defense can’t really counter that. Houston not having premier pass rusher Will Anderson is a massive loss, negating out Detroit not having regular left tackle Taylor Decker. Not having Anderson means the Texans will either take their chances in coverage behind a lesser pass rush, or alternately try to create more pressure by blitzing.
No QB is better than Goff at dissecting the blitz, and the Texans secondary–while pretty good–can’t consistently match the level of coverage the Lions pull off behind their injury-related makeshift pass rush. Houston’s secondary is vulnerable to big plays, however–notably high-risk/reward slot Jalen Pitre. He’ll be marking Amon-Ra St. Brown most of the time and that’s an advantage for the Lions All-Pro leading target. They’re also a secondary that has had some struggles in tackling after the catch, which portends well for Jahymr Gibbs catching passes out of the backfield and Sam LaPorta hitting a crosser on the dead run and leaving Devin White or Henry To’oTo’o lurching for nonexistent ankles to grab.
Then there’s special teams. The Lions hold opponents to the worst average starting field position off kickoffs. No free yards there makes for longer fields for the Texans, who are near the bottom in kick returns. The Lions injuries at linebacker do create some vulnerability on coverage units, but in Dave Fipp we trust.
What worries me about the Texans
Joe Mixon is the exact style of running back that has given the Lions defense some struggles in the last couple of weeks. Like Tony Pollard of Tennessee and Green Bay’s Josh Jacobs, Mixon is a powerful runner with good vision and quick feet to get through smaller creases than you’d expect for a bigger back. And for as poorly as the Houston interior offensive line has been in pass protection, they’re at least adequate in the run-blocking department.
As noted above, Houston’s secondary is a good one. A pair of rookies, safety Caden Bullock and outside CB Kamari Lassiter, have acclimated quickly to the NFL. Derek Stingley is playing like the top-10 overall pick that Houston made him back in 2022, the pick made immediately after the Lions selected Aidan Hutchinson. Eric Murray is a savvy veteran safety who is rarely fooled. Goff must continue to be sharp, or else this is a secondary that can make him pay for even small mistakes.
How the Lions replace Decker at left tackle could be quite impactful. The concept of moving All-Pro right tackle Penei Sewell to the left side isn’t as savory when factoring in that top Texans pass rusher Danielle Hunter plays against the right tackle more than 80 percent of his snaps over the last three years. Whomever is at left tackle must handle speed-based rushers Jerry Hughes and Derek Barnett. Hughes’ lack of height has always been an issue for taller tackles, which is something to watch here.
Final score prediction
The Texans are a good football team. The Lions are a better and more complete one, and they match up well with Houston.
Lions 30, Texans 22
Continue reading...
