Packers take Love

[thehippo73]

I wanted to see the history of taking the 4th QB in the first round panned out. Here is a list of guys.

2018 Josh Rosen
2012 Brandon Weeden
2011 Christian Ponder
2004 JP Losman
2003 Rex Grossman
1999 Daunte Culpepper
1987 Jim Harbaugh
1983 Tony Eason

Doesn't look like it will lead to a HOF QB. But he will probably look like a HOFer against the Lions for a couple games and get a huge 2nd contract.

 

[tomdalton22]

just because it's the 4th qb in the 1st round shouldn't matter. A better comparison might be the 4th QB taken regardless of round.

 

[thehippo73]

just because it's the 4th qb in the 1st round shouldn't matter. A better comparison might be the 4th QB taken regardless of round.

Not a big difference

2019 Drew Lock 2nd round
2017 Deshone Kizer 2nd
2016 Christian Hackenburg 2nd
2015 Sean Mannion 3rd
2014 Derek Carr 2nd
2013 Matt Barkley 4th
2010 Colt McCoy 3rd
2009 Pat White 2nd
2008 Chad Henne 2nd
2007 John Beck 2nd
2006 Kellen Clemens 2nd
2005 Charlie Frye 3rd
2002 Josh McCown 3rd
2001 Marques Tuiasosopo 2nd
2000 Tee Martin 5th

I looked at the next couple decades back and since 1980 the best of the rest were Mark Brunell and Jay Schroeder. If you go to 1979, the 4th QB taken was Joe Montana.

 

[tomdalton22]

My guess is the bust rate is high on QBs regardless where they are picked simply because so many are drafted highly.

 

[LKP]

We'll see if this pans out

Note the cap hits

Rodgers cap hit 21 million then 36 million in 2021 with 31 dead, and finally 39 million with only 17 dead in 2022. Watch out for a change in 2022 after Love sitting two years.

Stafford is 21 million this year, 33 in 2021 with 19 dead but only 26 million in 2022 cap hit.

Lions have way more cap space than Packers now currently

Lions need to re-sign Golladay and Decker
Packers have Bakhtiarir, Kenny Clark and Aaron Jones and maybe Kevin King to re-sign next offseason

 

[LKP]

Full NFC North
Stafford 21, 33, 26 in next 3 years. Bargain folks
Rodgers 21, 36, 39 in next 3 years. Two huge cap hits
Cousins 21, 31, 45 in next 3 years. Really only 2 years for him

Foles 5.3, 9.3, 9.3 in next 3 with Bears
Trubisky 9.3 this year and 24 million if they pick up 5th year option (they won't)

Love 2.1, 2.6, 3.1, 3.7 cap hits based on 26th slot last year. Probably higher now
Chase Daniel 2.0, 5.3, 5.7 in the next 3 years

 

[Mitchrapp]

Full NFC North
Stafford 21, 33, 26 in next 3 years. Bargain folks
Rodgers 21, 36, 39 in next 3 years. Two huge cap hits
Cousins 21, 31, 45 in next 3 years. Really only 2 years for him

Foles 5.3, 9.3, 9.3 in next 3 with Bears
Trubisky 9.3 this year and 24 million if they pick up 5th year option (they won't)

Love 2.1, 2.6, 3.1, 3.7 cap hits based on 26th slot last year. Probably higher now
Chase Daniel 2.0, 5.3, 5.7 in the next 3 years

Bargain price at discount play.

 

[LKP]

Bargain price at discount play.

Stafford had highest rating of any of the NFC North QBs last year. 6th in league

 

[sggatecl]

Bargain price at discount play.

I think he's top 10 on most lists, certainly top 15. While not elite, I'd hardly call that discount. His pay falls right in line with where he ranks in most categories, often times better.

I get that you're a bit salty for not getting Tua (you set yourself up for that) but discount is disingenuous I think. I'm very interested, if healthy, to see what he does in year two under Bevell.

 

[Mitchrapp]

I think he's top 10 on most lists, certainly top 15. While not elite, I'd hardly call that discount. His pay falls right in line with where he ranks in most categories, often times better.

I get that you're a bit salty for not getting Tua (you set yourself up for that) but discount is disingenuous I think. I'm very interested, if healthy, to see what he does in year two under Bevell.

I didn't expect them to grab Tua as much as I was sort of hoping. I worry about OC year 2 as it seems OC year 2 always seems to fall apart. I saw Dalton was released today by the Bengals.

 

[sggatecl]

I didn't expect them to grab Tua as much as I was sort of hoping. I worry about OC year 2 as it seems OC year 2 always seems to fall apart. I saw Dalton was released today by the Bengals.

Belichek gonna turn The Red Rifle into an MVP candidate.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Belichek gonna turn The Red Rifle into an MVP candidate.

If that happens then he is the best all time.

 

[LKP]

I didn't expect them to grab Tua as much as I was sort of hoping. I worry about OC year 2 as it seems OC year 2 always seems to fall apart. I saw Dalton was released today by the Bengals.

Year 1 and 1.5 of Lombardi was bad especially for protection schemes
Linehan was good from 2009-2013. The team just got there in 2011. Linehan always a good OC, bad HC
Cooter was good second half 2015, 2016 and 2017 under Caldwell for passing game. Never got the run game going. Cooter was former QB coach not run game coordinator. Cooter got bad in 2018 and didn't mesh with Patricia in 2 so got the boot.

Bevell was great last year and should be even better this year for run, pass and protection schemes. Can the two rookie guards and Big V jump right in and pass pro though. I know Ragnow, Dahl and Decker can.

 

[mhughes0021]

Stafford had highest rating of any of the NFC North QBs last year. 6th in league

Stafford has been fringe top 20 QB Rating for years. Arod is one of the best QBs ever...and GB isnt afraid of having a plan to replace him. Just another example of how the lions organization is terrible. We are too afraid to have a future plan because we dont want to hurt our current average Qbs feelings. Just dumb decisions being made...

 

[LKP]

Stafford has been fringe top 20 QB Rating for years. Arod is one of the best QBs ever...and GB isnt afraid of having a plan to replace him. Just another example of how the lions organization is terrible. We are too afraid to have a future plan because we dont want to hurt our current average Qbs feelings. Just dumb decisions being made...

Stafford has much lower cap hits over the next 3 seasons than Rodgers. Stafford is younger than Rodgers and Stafford currently is better than Rodgers

Stafford has been top 10 many times. He was like in the 20s like once recently or if an injury crept up.

6th 2019, 25th 2018 due to injuries and every other weapon getting hurt, 2017 he was 6th in QB rating, 13th in QB rating in 2016 but like top 5 before the hand injury for the final 4 games, 9th in 2015 (bad with Lombardi, great with Cooter second half)

In the 20s 2012-2014. He is not the same player he was back then. Caldwell and Cooter fixed him from Linehan allowing all the ints. Quit living in the past.

2011 he was 5th

Stafford is currently on a discount contract right now when you look around the league. He got paid first then everyone else got paid big money and more money.

 

[Mitchrapp]

We've all seen Matt do well for half a season only to be not so good for the rest. We've seen him good one game only to be bad the next. 2 good, 2 bad. Good 1st had to terrible the 2nd and vice versa. There's nothing that says if he was healthy the last 8 would be like the first 8. He's been inconsistent for much of his career. Remember this team is bad.. Matt might have had his best stretch and yet we were still 3-4-1 and it could have been worse. 8 more games with Matt equal play like the first half we're still a bad team.

 

[tomdalton22]

Stafford has much lower cap hits over the next 3 seasons than Rodgers. Stafford is younger than Rodgers and Stafford currently is better than Rodgers

AR is definitely on the back nine of his career but I wouldn't say that Matt has caught him just yet.

 

[LKP]

AR is definitely on the back nine of his career but I wouldn't say that Matt has caught him just yet.

Stafford better QB rating than Rodgers 3 of the past 5 years. Also the 2 he didn't is Stafford injured in 2016 and 2018 but playing with hand on throwing hand and back.

Stafford has been the better QB the last five (5), cinco(5), funf(5), seasons

Rodgers is an old whiny bitch who just got replaced

 

[mhughes0021]

Stafford has much lower cap hits over the next 3 seasons than Rodgers. Stafford is younger than Rodgers and Stafford currently is better than Rodgers

Stafford has been top 10 many times. He was like in the 20s like once recently or if an injury crept up.

6th 2019, 25th 2018 due to injuries and every other weapon getting hurt, 2017 he was 6th in QB rating, 13th in QB rating in 2016 but like top 5 before the hand injury for the final 4 games, 9th in 2015 (bad with Lombardi, great with Cooter second half)

In the 20s 2012-2014. He is not the same player he was back then. Caldwell and Cooter fixed him from Linehan allowing all the ints. Quit living in the past.

2011 he was 5th

Stafford is currently on a discount contract right now when you look around the league. He got paid first then everyone else got paid big money and more money.

Over the last 9 seasons he averages out to be 14th....not good. a third of his career hes been in the 20s...not good. Hes been top 5 once...as a rookie.

2019 - 6th in 8 games. Yippie...the team won 3 games.

2018 - 25th. You suck Stafford...Nick Mullens had a better QB rating than you. Congrats.

2017 - 6th...one of his better years.

2016 - 13th

2015 - 9th

2014 - 21st. Kyle Orton was better.

2013 - 19th.

2012 - 22nd. Christian Ponder was better.

2011 - 5th

 

[LKP]

He is a different qb since 2014. Top 10, many time stop 6. 14th average over career but right now he is a top 6 from last five seasons. Higher if not injured