Time of Possession and Turnovers, 2013 vs 2014

[grandy]

I took a look over this today and things are looking good thus far, better than last year.

Time of Possession
2014 ToP advantage = 5-1
2013 ToP advantage = 10-6

2014 Average ToP = 33:18
2013 Average ToP = 32:22 (includes 1 OT game)

2014 W-L in ToP Advantage = 4-1
2013 W-L in ToP Advantage = 5-5

2014 W-L in ToP Disadvantage = 0-1
2013 W-L in ToP Disadvantage = 2-4


Turnover
2014 Turnover Margin = +1
2013 Turnover Margin = -12

2014 Turnover Record = 3-3-0
2013 Turnover Record = 5-7-4

2014 Average Giveaways = 1.333
2013 Average Giveaways = 2.125

2014 Average Takeaways = 1.5
2013 Average Takeaways = 1.375

2014 Record Based On Turnover Battles...
Won = 3-0
Lost = 1-2

2013 Record Based On Turnover Battles...
Won = 4-1
Tied = 1-3
Lost = 2-5

2014 Games with 0 Giveaways = 3 (3-0 Record)
2013 Games with 0 Giveaways = 3 (0-3 Record)

 

[boogerlovejoy]

The first half of the Giants game, when we had 7 or 8 penalties.....I thought WTF was Caldwell brought in for.

After that, this team is MUCH MUCH more diciplined in all aspects. I think Caldwell has done a great job in that regard. Turnovers and penalties have been so much better.....had it been this way last year this team would have won 11 games.

Austin has been the team MVP so far....he and Levy....and his defense is causing confusion for opposing offenses so far.

Lombardi......um.......hasn't been good so far. I don't see any cohesion in this offense.....routes are too long/deep.....playcalling has been really suspect. It's early.....but he needs to adjust ASAP.

 

[atxlion82]

I think the quick release last year masked some of the weakness on the o-line.

 

[jared]

The fact that we are where we are with only a +1 TO advantage is great. These aren't flukey wins at all. This is a defense that has come together, with a coordinator who knows the strengths.

If the kicking game gets straightened out that will help.

I am concerned about the offense. Last year we were 6th in YPG and 23rd in PPG. This year we are 23rd in YPG and 27th in PPG. Obviously the kicking issues have contributed. If we had made 7 of the 10 misses we would be 22.8 PPG, and ranked 19th. Still not acceptable.

I wonder how much the brand new scheme plays a part? It's the same personnel (Ebron jokes notwithstanding) as last year. The line played well last year, this year they suck. I am hopeful that things start to gel as the season wears on. If that happens and the offense plays to an average standard (23 - 24 PPG) along with the kicking finding a reasonable level, this team could surprise some people.

I predicted 8-8, and I think I was wrong. I think 10-6, playoffs and maybe even a playoff win or two is possible. Hopefully the offense starts to figure some things out. It can't be much worse.

 

[zyxt9]

might not see playoffs with only 10 wins. needed Miami to beat GB yesterday. could come down to Lions @ GB for division with the other divisions having the WC teams, so winner of that game wins division and advances. that does not bode well, historically...obviously.

they need to be two games up on GB going into that game, and I am not sure the schedule bares out that possibility. fucking dolphins hosed the lions as a result. kinda feels like Detroit MUST win at GB in order to get into playoffs. I'm not even certain 11 wins will be enough for WC this year...depending on how all the tie breakers shake out.

 

[zyxt9]

My favorite stat so far:

2013 - Average PA: 23.5 (15th overall, 7-9 record)
2014 - Average PA: 13.667 (1st overall, 4-2 record)

"Defense wins championships", so I have greater excitement this year than previous years. For reference:
2013 - Seattle Avg PA: 14.4 (1st overall, 13-3 record)
2012 - Baltimore Avg PA: 21.5 (12th overall, 10-6 record)
2011 - NYG Avg PA: 25 (25th overall, 9-7 record)

obviously based on this sample data, defense PA is NOT a true indicator for winning the super bowl; however, Lions current pace is for a PA at end of year of 218.667. Last team to finish the season with 219 or less was: Baltimore 2006 with PA: 201. Last team to lead the league in defense and not make the playoffs...I cannot find any, but that was not the most thorough research.

All that aside, as Lions fans we all know that if ever there was going to be an organization to be the first at leading the league in defense but failing to make the playoffs...well, that organization would only be the Lions.

 

[zyxt9]

And it is WAY early (and doesn't take into account tonight's game, not to mention some teams have had BYE weeks, etc.) HOWEVER...

...if you want to REALLY have a seriously wet dream...

http://www.footballperspective.com/the-best-scoring-defenses-in-nfl-history/

from this article, the last paragraph is this:
As a result of the era adjustment (2.7 points) and the SOS adjustment (2.3 points), Baltimore loses 5 PPG on Seattle’s defense, moving from them 4.0 points ahead to 0.9 PPG behind. If you ignore the Z-score and look at just the PPG above or below average, the top defenses since 1978 are Tampa Bay 2002 (+9.8), Chicago 1985 (+9.4), Seattle 2013 (+8.9), Carolina 2013 (+8.6), Pittsburgh 2008 (+8.2), and Baltimore 2000 (+8.0). That’s five Super Bowl winners out of six teams, the maximum possible given this combination.

As of RIGHT NOW: 2014 Detroit Lions defense (by my calculations) are at: +9.6777 which would rank #2 on that list, trailing only the 2002 Bucs.

So if that doesn't give you a tingling up and down your spine, well...that would be due to you being a lifelong, die-hard Lions fan who is still waiting for the rest of the season in anticipation of a complete collapse. I don't blame anyone for that...but it sure looks pretty, doesn't it?

Long way to go...but DAMN impressive nonetheless!!!

 

[cmlfactor]

Anyone have any numbers on the penalties? That's another big difference. I know they have to be at least 150 yards behind their pace from last year at this point...

 

[grandy]

Anyone have any numbers on the penalties? That's another big difference. I know they have to be at least 150 yards behind their pace from last year at this point...

Unfortunately penalties are a little bit tougher since they're all far from equal, even if the yardage is equal. But I did compile lists for both seasons below.

Penalties
(+ as is in more penalties, - as in less penalties)
2014 Penalty Margin = -2 (-0.33 per game)
2013 Penalty Margin = +23 (+1.44 per game)

2014 Average Penalties per Game = 6.17
2013 Average Penalties per Game = 6.88

2014 Average Penalty Yards per Game = 48.83
2013 Average Penalty Yards per Game = 57.8

2014 Average Penalty Yards per Penalty = 7.92
2013 Average Penalty Yards per Penalty = 8.41

2014 Opponent Average Penalties per Game = 6.5
2013 Opponent Average Penalties per Game = 5.44

2014 Opponent Average Penalty Yards per Game = 44.33
2013 Opponent Average Penalty Yards per Game = 42.56

2014 Opponent Average Penalty Yards per Penalty = 6.82
2013 Opponent Average Penalty Yards per Penalty = 7.83

2014 Games with 8+ Penalties = 2 (1-1 Record)
2013 Games with 8+ Penalties = 8 (4-4 Record)

2014 Games with 5 or less Penalties = 3 (2-1 Record)
2013 Games with 5 or less Penalties = 5 (3-2 Record)


(W = had less penalties, L = had more penalties)
2014 Penalty Record = 3-3
2013 Penalty Record = 5-10-1

2014 Penalty Yards Record = 3-3
2013 Penalty Yards Record = 5-11

2014 Record by Penalties...
Lions had More Penalties = 2-1
Lions had More Penalty Yards = 3-0
Lions had Less Penalties = 2-1
Lions had Less Penalty Yards = 1-2

2013 Record by Penalties...
Lions had More Penalties = 4-6
Lions had More Penalty Yards = 5-6
Equal Penalties = 1-0
Lions had Less Penalties = 2-3
Lions had Less Penalty Yards = 2-3