http://www.footballoutsiders.com/nfl-draft/2017/sackseer-2017
SackSEER 2017.
FootballOutsiders
SackSEER. SackSEER's projections are based on a statistical analysis of the factors that have historically correlated to success as an NFL edge rusher. SackSEER has predicted success for many current stars such as Von Miller, Khalil Mack, and Justin Houston. SackSEER has also identified several high-profile busts at the edge rusher position, including Dion Jordan, Marcus Smith, and Jarvis Jones. SackSEER had its fair share of misses as well, but it nevertheless provides a good starting point for discussing the likelihood that an edge rusher prospect will collect high sack numbers at the NFL level.
SackSEER expresses its thoughts on each drafted edge rusher through two outputs: SackSEER projection and SackSEER rating. SackSEER projection and SackSEER rating contain the following common elements:
An "explosion index" that measures the prospect's scores in the 40-yard dash, the vertical leap, and the broad jump in pre-draft workouts;
The prospect's score on the 3-cone drill;
A metric called "SRAM" which stands for "sack rate as modified." SRAM measures the prospect's per-game sack productivity, but with adjustments for factors such as early entry in the NFL draft and position switches during college;
The prospect's college passes defensed divided by college games played; and
The number of medical redshirts the player either received or was eligible for.
SackSEER projection projects the number of regular season sacks that a prospect will record in his first five seasons in the NFL. Unlike SackSEER rating, SackSEER projection incorporates the projected round a prospect will be drafted according to NFLDraftScout.com.
