13 games left a tad worried

[biggunsbob]

Someone bring me off the ledge


http://espn.go.com/nhl/team/schedule...roit-red-wings

http://espn.go.com/nhl/standings.

If I am looking at the standings right we are only 1 point ahead of Washington for a Wildcard spot and 6 and 8 points ahead of Ottawa and Florida, and while I do not think we will miss the playoffs it is more of a possibility then it was a month ago. We are not playing well at all. 5-5 in our last ten is not awful its just we start games so slow and our defense has been awful as of late.

 

[zyxt9]

yeah, too many teams behind the Wings for them to miss out on playoffs even if they only go .500 rest of the way. don't forget, most of those teams also have fewer games left than the Wings too.

at .500 Wings get 12 points, which is actually less than a point a game since they have 13 games left, so let's call the 13th game a OTL and give them 13 pts as a base minimum. that would mean 100 pts and finishing out season at 6-6-1. that certainly would be a disappointing finish to the season, but still gets them to 100 pts.

Ottawa is in 9th, they need 19 points in 12 games to reach 100. not impossible since they are on a winning streak and therefore give the impression of being desperate and wanting to be a playoff team. but it is not likely they maintain their current hot streak of 8-1-1 in last 10, and to get to 100 pts they will need to be roughly a 9-2-1 team which means they would be roughly 17-3-2 in their last 22 games. that would be extremely impressive if they accomplished that.

Boston is on a 3 game losing streak and need 17 points in their last 11 games. while they are 6-2-2 in last 10, they would need to improve that rate to roughly 8-2-1 to reach 100 pts.

Washington needs 12 points in 10 games. definitely a possibility. They could go 5-3-2 or even 6-4. not unreasonable to expect Washington to reach 100 pts.

So yes, the Wings could miss the playoffs if they continue to play at current level and the other teams get hot and stay that way. However, for all of that to happen would be surprising. Not impossible, but surprising. Especially Ottawa, who I can see beating out Boston for the 8th spot, but I do not think they will reach 100 points.

Furthermore, a quick look through the last 10 years shows that there has yet to be a Conference with all 8 teams in playoffs having 100+ points. The closest was 2006-07 season where Colorado just missed playoffs with 95 points while Calgary was in the 8 spot with 96 points. So roughly that means Wings need 9 points in last 13 games to reach 96 for the season. They literally could go anywhere from 0-3-9 to 4-8-1 to reach 96 points whereas Ottawa still would have to get 15 points in 12 games to reach 96 points.

Very tough for Wings to not make the playoffs at this point, IMO. Nothing is impossible, but quickly looking at the schedules for Ottawa and Boston, I'm projecting Ottawa to beat out Boston and be #8, Detroit on cruise control gets #7, and Washington catches some breaks and gets #6. That's my projected worst case for Wings.

As for Florida, they need more points than Ottawa with 1 less game to get those points. While they are not officially eliminated, they are not worth considering IMO.

Not sure if that talked you down from the ledge, but hopefully it helped! lol

 

[tigersofjustice]

Team is playing like absolute garbage at the moment, no question about it.

 

[zyxt9]

Team is playing like absolute garbage at the moment, no question about it.

yeah, but their entire season has been a rollercoaster. remember the 6 game winless streak earlier in the year (thankfully they still managed 4 points during it)? then later they have a 6 game win streak. they just have been a very erratic team this season. I had hoped they finally put it behind them and were moving in the right direction, but since that moment they have spiraled down a L-L-W, L-L-W pattern. They are just completely unpredictable and at any point could put together good run. At least they have consistently been better than they have been bad, which is why they will be in the playoffs.

 

[zyxt9]

oh and 9 points in 12 games is still very doable

 

[biggunsbob]

So 9 plus points in last twelve is what we need.. hopefully they will wake up and win a few games soon..

 

[twentythree]

Someone bring me off the ledge


http://espn.go.com/nhl/team/schedule...roit-red-wings

http://espn.go.com/nhl/standings.

If I am looking at the standings right we are only 1 point ahead of Washington for a Wildcard spot and 6 and 8 points ahead of Ottawa and Florida, and while I do not think we will miss the playoffs it is more of a possibility then it was a month ago. We are not playing well at all. 5-5 in our last ten is not awful its just we start games so slow and our defense has been awful as of late.

You're right. The Red Wings are slipping. I think they won't get 2nd place in the Atlantic Division. Every once in a while, I do a double take and think to myself, wait.... -Atlantic Division- ? What happened? It's possible that the Bruins could get the #3 slot in this division, but I think the Red Wings get 3rd. If we are in 3rd place, we won't have to worry about wild card standings. The Senators seem to be quickly approaching the Bruins.

Just think, we would be 2nd place in the Pacific Division right now!

 

[twentythree]

I'm projecting Ottawa to beat out Boston and be #8, Detroit on cruise control gets #7, and Washington catches some breaks and gets #6. That's my projected worst case for Wings.

Playoff structure changed when the divisions changed, beginning in 2013-14. In the first round, the #2 seed faces the #3 seed in each of the four divisions. The #1 team in each off the four divisions faces a wild card (#7 or #8 seed) depending on who is the absolute best team in the conference. #1(conference) faces #8, #2(conference) faces #8.

 

[zyxt9]

Playoff structure changed when the divisions changed, beginning in 2013-14. In the first round, the #2 seed faces the #3 seed in each of the four divisions. The #1 team in each off the four divisions faces a wild card (#7 or #8 seed) depending on who is the absolute best team in the conference. #1(conference) faces #8, #2(conference) faces #8.

Wow, I totally missed that. Thanks for update...though it is pretty confusing like that. Prefer the old format as this is too screwy IMO. So unless Ottawa jumps the Wings, they seem destined to play either Montreal or TB, and if Ottawa does manage to jump them, then the Wings might get Montreal, TB, or NYR? Yeah, that really is a hot mess the NHL is now using for the playoffs.

Now down to 6 points to the magic 96 mark. Though with Boston dropping fast, it seems a slightly lower total will get in, probably 94 would suffice this year since Boston needs a point a game to reach 93 and that is questionable for them right now.