2015 season predictions

[tomdalton22]

Individual and team predictions

Miggy .322/.375/.900 31 HR
V Mart .300/.370/.810 18 HR
JD .275/.350/.820 21 HR
Cespedes .260/.310/.760 23 HR
Nick .260/.315/.715 15 HR
Kinsler .270/.320/.730 13 HR
Avila/McC .250/.330/.700 14HR total platoon numbers
Gose / Davis .260/.320/.630 5 HR total platoon
Iggy .240/.310/.610 1 HR


Price 17-9 3.40 era
JV 16-9 4.10 era
Sanchez 10-7 3.73 era
Green 9-8 4.40 era
Simon 9-11 4.10 era

Bull Pen 425 IP, 4.20 era

Overall record

88-74 second place in the AL central

 

[gotime909]

Individual and team predictions

Miggy .322/.375/.900 31 HR
V Mart .300/.370/.810 18 HR
JD .275/.350/.820 21 HR
Cespedes .260/.310/.760 23 HR
Nick .260/.315/.715 15 HR
Kinsler .270/.340/.730 13 HR
Avila/McC .250/.330/.700 14HR total platoon numbers
Gose / Davis .260/.320/.630 5 HR total platoon
Iggy .240/.310/.610 1 HR


Price 17-9 3.40 era
JV 16-9 4.10 era
Sanchez 10-7 3.73 era
Green 9-8 4.40 era
Simon 9-11 4.10 era

Bull Pen 425 IP, 4.20 era

Overall record

88-74 second place in the AL central

If Kinsler's OBP is .340, I'll bet you $1,000 that his OPS will not be below .750

 

[tomdalton22]

If Kinsler's OBP is .340, I'll bet you $1,000 that his OPS will not be below .750

probably right. I will drop his OBP to .320 since it was .307 last year

 

[Mitchrapp]

If Kinsler's OBP is .340, I'll bet you $1,000 that his OPS will not be below .750

I'll bet but instead of 1,000 bucks how about an atta boy?

 

[andthereitgoes84]

I take it this will be the "official" predictions thread for 2015....

My guess, 79 wins, 3rd(or 4th)in the Central.

...then, with their depleted farm system, and long term commitments to fading stars, they probably are in "watch them earn their stripes" territory for a few(or more)years.

Too bad, they were so close...but injuries, bad managing decisions(esp. playoffs), inconsistent hitting....and of course a FAIL bullpen did them in too often during their window of opportunity to win a WS, particularly with the talent they had.

Hope I'm wrong, and they surprise in a year when the pundits are not calling for them to make much of a splash(as opposed to the WS expectations for almost a decade).

...would have liked to see them win one for Mr. Ilitch.

We'll see.

 

[Rebbiv]

M. Cabrera .320 BAVG .390 OBP .550 SLG .940 OPS 36 HR

V. Martinez .315 BAVG .385 OBP .475 SLG .860 OPS 15 HR

J.D. Martinez .285 BAVG .330 OBP .480 SLG .810 OPS 23 HR

N. Castellanos .280 BAVG .330 OBP .425 SLG .755 OPS 13 HR

Y. Cespedes .255 BAVG .300 OBP .450 SLG .750 OPS 24 HR

Avila/McCann .250 BAVG .330 OBP .390 SLG .720 OPS 16 HR

I. Kinsler .260 BAVG .310 OBP .390 SLG .700 OPS 15 HR

J. Iglesias .265 BAVG .320 OBP .350 SLG .670 OPS 5 HR

R. Davis/A. Gose .250 BAVG .310 OBP .350 SLG .660 OPS 8 HR


D. Price 16-9 3.30 ERA

J. Verlander 15-10 3.75 ERA

A. Sanchez 12-10 3.50 ERA

S. Greene 12-12 3.75 ERA

A. Simon 10-12 4.25 ERA

TOTAL = 65-53 .551 WPCT


DET Starters over the last 5 years

2014 = 68-55 .553 WPCT 3.89 ERA

2013 = 76-44 .633 WPCT 3.44 ERA

2012 = 63-51 .553 WPCT 3.76 ERA

2011 = 72-47 .605 WPCT 4.10 ERA

2010 = 53-59 .473 WPCT 4.46 ERA

AVG = 66-51 .564 WPCT 3.93 ERA


DET Relievers over the last 5 years

2014 = 22-17 .564 WPCT 4.29 ERA

2013 = 17-25 .405 WPCT 4.01 ERA

2012 = 25-23 .521 WPCT 3.79 ERA

2011 = 23-20 .535 WPCT 3.93 ERA

2010 = 28-22 .560 WPCT 3.96 ERA

AVG = 23-21 .523 WPCT 4.00 ERA

 

[jdeb]

M. Cabrera .330 BAVG 42 HR

V. Martinez .324 BAVG 26 HR

J.D. Martinez .284 BAVG 31 HR

N. Castellanos .270 BAVG 21 HR

Y. Cespedes .270 BAVG 24HR

Avila/McCann .230 BAVG 17 HR

I. Kinsler .270 BAVG 17 HR

J. Iglesias .310 BAVG 5 HR

R. Davis/A. Gose .255 BAVG 10 HR


D. Price 21-3 3.12 ERA

J. Verlander 17-12 3.95 ERA

A. Sanchez 14-10 2.74 ERA

S. Greene 9-14 3.75 ERA

A. Simon 14-12 4.10 ERA

Rondon is closer by end of May, Nathan gets released. McCann is everyday catcher by end of May. Gose plays everyday or darn near. Collins is dealt for catcher to back up McCann because Avila is retiring. Tigers trade for SS before All Star game.

Tigers get wild card in AL and get bumped in ALCS by Mariners. Nationals win WS over Mariners.

AL
Red Sox
Orioles
Blue Jays
Yankees
Rays

Indians
Tigers
Royals
White Sox
Twins

Mariners
Angels
A's
Rangers
Astros


NL
Nationals
Marlins
Mets
Braves
Phillies

Cardinals
Pirates
Cubs
Brewers
Reds

Dodgers
Padres
Giants
Rockies
Diamondbacks

 

[Rebbiv]

Soria is the closer before Rondon.

We don't make the playoffs with McCann and Gose as everyday players.

You predict Iglesias will have a .310 BAVG, but DET will trade for a SS before the AS break?

 

[jdeb]

Soria is the closer before Rondon.

We don't make the playoffs with McCann and Gose as everyday players.

You predict Iglesias will have a .310 BAVG, but DET will trade for a SS before the AS break?

Iglesias gets hurt again. Rondon stuff to nasty to ignore and Soria's inconsistency early leaves him as setup man. McCann is our best option as Avila battles concussion and back issues. Gose hits well enough and solidifies CF defensively which limits playing time for Davis. McCann will hit better than Avila and Gose proves to be the answer in CF while causing havoc on the base paths.

 

[tomdalton22]

Soria is the closer before Rondon.

We don't make the playoffs with McCann and Gose as everyday players.

You predict Iglesias will have a .310 BAVG, but DET will trade for a SS before the AS break?

If he is right about the HR totals they won't have to worry about Gose and McCann. 144 HRs out of his first 5 hitters!

 

[jdeb]

If he is right about the HR totals they won't have to worry about Gose and McCann. 144 HRs out of his first 5 hitters!

I can see it happening (last years Blue Jay and Orioles = tigers 2015) I also see a crap load of rally killing, inning ending double plays (probably will lead the AL). Cespedes is brutal in the OF so be prepared for that. He will gun down a few guys but most teams will not be running on him. This is the last hurrah folks and it don't look good. The bullpen is going to kill us again.

 

[tomdalton22]

I can see it happening but I also see a crap load of rally killing, inning ending double plays (probably will lead the AL). Cespedes is brutal in the OF so be prepared for that. He will gun down a few guys but most teams will not be running on him. This is the last hurrah folks and it don't look good. The bullpen is going to kill us again.

From an article posted by KC a while back



Yoenis Cespedes will give the Tigers the single biggest defensive upgrade by replacing the aging Torii Hunter. A nine-time gold glove winner, Hunter had become not only a liability in the field, but Fangraphs rated his defense dead-last among 29 qualified outfielders in the American League for the 2014 season. With a -18 DRS and -18.3 UZR, by any measure, this was a position in dire need of a defensive upgrade.

Cespedes ranked fourth in the American League among all qualified outfielders with a 11.4 UZR/150 and +11 DRS. He did this despite having below average range. All of his plus defensive ability is in his right arm, which rated as the best in the league. Even league average defense would be worth 18 runs to the team during the season, and another dozen runs would push that difference up to 30 runs saved in just one personnel change.

J.D. Martinez rated -1 DRS, while Davis rated -8 DRS in left field last season, with about equal playing time. Although Hunter played right field and Cespedes will be playing in left field, with Martinez moving from left to right, it is easy to see how the two new outfielders could save the Tigers about 40 runs over the course of a full season.

 

[jdeb]

I suppose it is true comparing against Hunter but you will see what I mean soon enough. He does have a canon, I'll give him that. I hope he is at least average, I could live with that.

 

[spockmaster]

He could/should be a top 10 defensive outfielder this year. His first few years of defensive metrics are lower because he kept getting stuck in CF by Oakland, where he doesnt belong.

 

[Rebbiv]

Iglesias gets hurt again. Rondon stuff to nasty to ignore and Soria's inconsistency early leaves him as setup man. McCann is our best option as Avila battles concussion and back issues. Gose hits well enough and solidifies CF defensively which limits playing time for Davis. McCann will hit better than Avila and Gose proves to be the answer in CF while causing havoc on the base paths.

There have been 28 MLB Catchers that have had 450 PAs Away over the last three years. Here is how their MLB Away OPS compares to their minors.

B. Posey .918 OPS vs .969 OPS -51

J. Lucroy .844 OPS vs .838 OPS +6

J. Mauer .825 OPS vs .833 OPS -8

C. Santana .815 OPS vs .900 OPS -85

C. Iannetta .806 OPS vs .931 OPS -125

Y. Molina .804 OPS vs .711 OPS +93

C. Ruiz .792 OPS vs .752 OPS +40

Y. Gomes .777 OPS vs .830 OPS -53

J. Jaso .774 OPS vs .816 OPS -42

R. Martin .745 OPS vs .810 OPS -65

M. Wieters .743 OPS vs 1.014 OPS -271

A.J. Ellis .742 OPS vs .785 OPS -43

M. Montero .735 OPS vs .826 OPS -91

R. Doumit .732 OPS vs .815 OPS -83

S. Perez .731 OPS vs .726 OPS +5

D. Mesoraco .725 OPS vs .794 OPS -69

W. Castillo .710 OPS vs .764 OPS -54

J. Saltalamacchia .705 OPS vs .823 OPS -118

W. Rosario .687 OPS vs .765 OPS -78

A. Avila .684 OPS vs .793 OPS -109

J. Castro .681 OPS vs .804 OPS -123

J. Buck .680 OPS vs .774 OPS -94

A.J. Pierzynski .676 OPS vs .737 OPS -61

B. McCann .675 OPS vs .812 OPS -137

D. Norris .656 OPS vs .858 OPS -202

K. Suzuki .650 OPS vs .804 OPS -154

T. Flowers .598 OPS vs .876 OPS -278

J.P. Arencibia .592 OPS vs .830 OPS -238


Not a single one of these MLB catchers had an OPS under .700 in the minors.
23 of the 28 had a minor league OPS of .765 or greater. The two lowest (Y. Molina and S. Perez) made it to the majors at age 21.

Tigers Catchers Minor League OPS

G. Greiner .839 OPS (only 1 season)

A. Avila .793 OPS

A. Greene .726 OPS


J. McCann .692 OPS

M. Pina .683

B. Holaday .662 OPS

M. Gonzalez .658 OPS


This same comparison/predictor could be used for other positions as well. Here are the other DET Tigers Minor League OPS.

J.D. Martinez .942 OPS

V. Martinez .881 OPS

D. Travis .876 OPS

I. Kinsler .868 OPS

J. Lennerton .809 OPS

N. Castellanos .804 OPS

A. Avila .793 OPS

T. Collins .790 OPS

W. Adames .786 OPS

R. Davis .784 OPS

D. Leyba .783 OPS

M. Cabrera .782 OPS (MLB at 20)

W. Bernard .780 OPS

E. Suarez .777 OPS



S. Moya .739 OPS

J. Wilson .736 OPS

J. Krizan .731 OPS

A. Westlake .722 OPS

A. Romine .721 OPS

D. Fields .698 OPS

J. Marte .696 OPS

X. Avery .694 OPS

H. Perez .660 OPS

J. Iglesias .638 OPS

A. Gose .633 OPS

D. Machado .622 OPS


Bold are all the minor league hitters we have traded since July of last year. All four are middle infielders. Glad we kept Perez, Iglesias and Machado. Where are most of the Tiger starters? Above .765 OPS.

Bottom line. Rarely, depending on age, do you see a MLB player excel if his Minor League OPS was under .700 (under .750 for corner fielders). Most are given a shot if they are a defensive whiz. However, you can only endure so many season of Rey Ordonez offense with Rey Ordonez defense.

If both Anthony Gose and Jose Iglesias perform according to their minor league numbers suggest and they are the starters, gawd help the offense. Then the suggestion is that James McCann will take over as a starter. More than a tad optimistic.

P. Fielder = .921 OPS
C. Shelton = .896 OPS
C. Granderson = .875 OPS
C. Maybin = .867 OPS
R. Raburn = .850 OPS
M. Thames = .840 OPS
B. Higginson = .834 OPS
S. Sizemore = .831 OPS
M. Joyce = .827 OPS
C. Wells = .816 OPS
B. Boesch = .796 OPS
C. Monroe = .782 OPS
C. Guillen = .778 OPS
A. Dirks = .778 OPS

A. Jackson = .763 OPS
A. Torres = .761 OPS
B. Pena = .756 OPS
J. Peralta = .753 OPS
B. Inge = .753 OPS
M. Tuiasosopo = .753 OPS
T. Hunter = .751 OPS
Wilkin Ramirez = .748 OPS
D. Kelly = .746 OPS
C. Thomas = .744 OPS
Avisail Garcia = .736 OPS
D. Ryan = .726 OPS
W. Rhymes = .725 OPS
R. Santiago = .689 OPS
O. Infante = .679 OPS (most before 21)
D. Worth = .673 OPS
M. Rabelo = .671 OPS
M. St. Pierre = .671 OPS
N. Logan = .660 OPS

For some of you. There is a reason that other teams take high OPS position players in trade. They have a greater rate of success. No they are not guaranteed success, just a greater rate. Conversely, rarely do you see a MLB starting position player with a minor league OPS under .700 (.750 for corners). Does it happen? Yes, but rarely and usually at a real young age (before 22).

 

[@Stakesarehigh]

Miggy .315 28 HR 115 RBI .915 OPS
Victor .310 22 HR 95 RBI .895 OPS
Kinsler .272 15 HR 80RBI .725 OPS
Castellanos .268 20 HR 75RBI .737OPS
JD .295 27 HR 90RBI .850 OPS
Iglesias .240 .665 OPS
Avila/Mcann .259 .685 OPS
Davis/Gose .250 .675 OPS
Cespedes .275 25 HR 80 RBI .750 OPS


Price 18-8 2.98 ERA 210 K
Verlander 15-10 3.85 ERA 170 K
Sanchez 15-9 3.02 ERA 150 K
Greene 13-10 3.75 ERA 125K
Simon 9-13 4.35 ERA 110K


91-71 Wins Central over the White Sox by 2 games.

Lose in ALCS to Baltimore

 

[tigerfantroy]

Tigers over Dodgers for World Series Championship

 

[Thundercats]

Cespedes' "brutality" saved Price today.