Centerfield Options

[Rebbiv]

http://www.blessyouboys.com/2015/8/26/9151779/detroit-tigers-center-field-anthony-gose-2016

2013-Present Away MLB CFers (350 PAs)

wRC+

C. Rasmus (FA, L 29 $8.0 Mil) 116

D. Span (FA, L 31 $9.0 Mil) 107

C. Young (FA, R 31 $2.5 Mil) 102

D. Fowler (FA, S 29 $9.5 Mil) 102

A. De Aza (FA, L 31 $5.0 Mil) 100

W. Venable (FA, L 32 $4.25 Mil) 95


R. Davis (FA, R 34 $5.0 Mil) 88

A. Jackson (FA, R 28 $7.7 Mil) 82

D. Stubbs (FA, R 30 $5.83 Mil) 72

A. Gose (L, 25 $ .52 Mil) 64


UZR/150

R. Davis 9.2

W. Venable 3.4

C. Rasmus 3.4

D. Span 0.0

A. De Aza -0.9

A. Jackson -2.6

D. Stubbs -4.7

A. Gose -4.8

D. Fowler -11.5

C. Young -24.1


I have no troubles pursuing Denard Span. He would probably be a 4-5 win upgrade over what we have. And he isn't probably getting a Qualifying Offer.

Rasmus has character issues. Fowler and Chris Young are horrible on defense. De Aza and/or Venable would provide at least if nor more than Rajai Davis and probably for less money.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Someone that can play both sides of the plate (full time) and above average even by a little bit.

 

[tomdalton22]

Span will probably be in that $15M per year area.

 

[Rebbiv]

Span will probably be in that $15M per year area.

No he won't. He will get about 4 years at $48 Mil

 

[tomdalton22]

No he won't. He will get about 4 years at $48 Mil

maybe...with the way contracts have been lately...I say it will be closer to $15M per year than $12M.

 

[Rebbiv]

maybe...with the way contracts have been lately...I say it will be closer to $15M per year than $12M.

Last year's OF signings

Mel. Cabrera 3 @ $42.0 Mil ($16 Mil avg) was given QO

N. Cruz 4 @ $58.0 Mil ($14.5 Mil avg) was given QO


N. Markakis 4 @ $44.0 Mil ($11.0 Mil avg)

A. Rios 1 @ $11.0 Mil ($11.0 Mil avg)

M. Cuddyer 2 @ $21.0 Mil ($10.5 Mil avg) was given QO

T. Hunter 1 @ $10.5 Mil ($10.5 Mil avg)

C. Rasmus 1 @ $8.0 Mil ($8.0 Mil avg)

M. Morse 2 @ $16.0 Mil ($8.0 Mil avg)


2012-2014 Away wRC+ and UZR/150

Mel. Cabrera 125.5 runs

N. Cruz 121.8 runs

A. Rios 112.2 runs

C. Rasmus 111.4 runs

T. Hunter 110.5 runs

J.D. Martinez 106.6 runs

Y. Cespedes 105.5 runs

N. Markakis 101.6 runs

A. Jackson 98.5 runs

M. Morse 89.3 runs (mostly impacted by -22.7 UZR/150)

R. Davis 78.1 runs


Those were the numbers at the end of last season.

2013 - Present

M. Trout = 166.4 runs

J.D. Martinez = 139.1 runs
Y. Cespedes = 133.4 runs

D. Span = 107.7 runs


The $15 Mil range has generally been for the players @ 120 runs and up. I don't see Span in that range. Cespedes gets it this year and J.D. gets a huge bump in arbitration. But Span will be in the $10-12 Mil range.

 

[tomdalton22]

Last year's OF signings



N. Cruz 4 @ $58.0 Mil ($14.5 Mil avg) was given QO


.

I wish the Tigers would have signed him vs. V-Mart!

The more I look at it the more I am coming to your estimate. I looked at his 3 year splits (I do this a lot now thanks to you). I see his 3 year away OBP is only .301...maybe he isn't even worth $10M?

 

[Rebbiv]

2013-Present Away OBP (302 Qualify with 350 PAs)

2. M. Cabrera .406
10. P. Fielder .372
15. V. Martinez .369
28. J. Jaso .359
39. N. Cruz .350
44. C. Granderson .349
47. J.D. Martinez .347
62. J. Iglesias .342
78. M. Joyce .338
87. D. Span .333
93. J. Peralta .333

125. I. Kinsler .326
133. Del. Young .323
137. Av. Garcia .323

183. T. Hunter .309
187. Y. Cespedes .308
200. R. Davis .305
207. B. Pena .303
221. A. Avila .299
240. A. Jackson .293

257. O. Infante .287
270. A. Gose .279
272. C. Maybin .278
275. N. Castellanos .275

CF, 3B, LF and C we have sub-standard OBP players currently. Assuming he performs as expected, Span is about 4-5 wins better than R. Davis/A. Gose platoon. His .333 OBP from 2013-present isn't below average. He had an extreme outlier of a season in 2012 and now this year.

Denard Span Away

2008 = .296 BAVG .385 OBP .412 SLG .797 OPS 9.3 PA/BB

2009 = .298 BAVG .381 OBP .384 SLG .765 OPS 10.4 PA/BB

2010 = .228 BAVG .293 OBP .309 SLG .602 OPS 12.3 PA/BB

2011 = .250 BAVG .317 OBP .343 SLG .660 OPS 11.1 PA/BB

2012 = .235 BAVG .278 OBP .315 SLG .595 OPS 17.3 PA/BB

2013 = .252 BAVG .302 OBP .361 SLG .665 OPS 15.0 PA/BB

2014 = .253 BAVG .318 OBP .390 SLG .708 OPS 12.3 PA/BB

2015 = .372 BAVG .439 OBP .579 SLG 1.017 OPS 9.3 PA/BB


Now, the key here is that Span started out hitting LHP pretty well and now he doesn't. Also, his success, like most players, is tied to his walk rate.

vs RHP

2008 = .299 BAVG .380 OBP .415 SLG .795 OPS 9.6 PA/BB

2009 = .303 BAVG .385 OBP .389 SLG .774 OPS 10.0 PA/BB

2010 = .256 BAVG .322 OBP .348 SLG .680 OPS 12.2 PA/BB

2011 = .273 BAVG .324 OBP .373 SLG .697 OPS 14.1 PA/BB

2012 = .275 BAVG .328 OBP .408 SLG .736 OPS 13.5 PA/BB

2013 = .298 BAVG .344 OBP .422 SLG .766 OPS 16.3 PA/BB

2014 = .314 BAVG .362 OBP .440 SLG .802 OPS 14.8 PA/BB

2015 = .335 BAVG .393 OBP .486 SLG .879 OPS 10.8 PA/BB


Span plays solid, if unspectacular defense in CF. He hits RHP pretty good. Yes, his stats take a hit against LHP and when he doesn't walk. I could live with that. He is truly a top of the order hitter against RHP.

 

[biggunsbob]

I am all for Span for sure..

 

[gotime909]

You guys aren't scared off by Span's injuries?

 

[biggunsbob]

You guys aren't scared off by Span's injuries?

Good point.. I forgot he is often injured..

 

[biggunsbob]

Span games played in his career. Yikes G. is right.. We need to be careful..

93
145
153
70
128
153
147
61 is it so far this year.

 

[gotime909]

Span games played in his career. Yikes G. is right.. We need to be careful..

93
145
153
70
128
153
147
61 is it so far this year.

He's had problems again since he's come back from the DL this year and finally had hip surgery today. I'd pass. Far too risky

 

[biggunsbob]

Yup Pass..