Japanese 'Babe Ruth' coming to MLB Soon?

[tbone413]

http://nypost.com/2016/11/09/meet-b...-a-babe-ruth-pitcherslugger-who-may-get-300m/

I work for a Japanese auto supplier, and my coworkers have been raving about this guy for over a year now. However this is the first article ive seen written about him. I know there is a zero % chance the Tigers get him, but I'm still super interested to see where he lands.

My bet would be the Cubs...any NL team has the advantage of pitchers hitting, but if a team like the NYY are desperate, maybe they would let him play in the outfield a few times a week (like the article suggests)

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. ? Shohei Otani is what this current free-agent market lacks. He is a young, talented starter ? already perceived as one of the best pitchers in the world ? with the fringe benefit that he actually might be a superb hitter, as well.

But Otani is not expected to come to the American majors until next offseason, at which point the frenzy for his services likely will make him the first Japanese import to exceed $200 million.

Otani is 6-foot-4, began pitching professionally when he was 18 and this past season went 10-4 with a 1.86 ERA, 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings and ? oh yeah ? he hit 22 homers with a 1.004 OPS in 382 plate appearances. By the way, he does not turn 23 until July.

 

[tbone413]

what do you guys think...any chance this guy can actually hit at an above average (IE better than a regular 'every day MLB hitter') at the MLB level? I dont think there is any doubt his pitching will translate well, as several Japanese pitchers have had great success, but I personally find it hard to believe he can hit well enough to make it worthwhile putting him in the lineup on days he doesnt pitch.

 

[tomdalton22]

remember Dice-K....he had like 7 pitches including a "Bugs Bunny" curve ball.

My guess is that it is more likely that he will be a middle of the road pitcher that hits like one.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOt2iw-7n6A

 

[tbone413]

lol ya Dice-K was def. a bust, but to be fair he was pretty darn good his first two years in the Majors prior to blowing out his elbow.

But Yu Darvish has been excellent, and Masahiro Tanaka has been almost as good for the Yankees.

Darvish's last season in Japan (Age 24): 18-6, 1.44 ERA, 232 IP, 276 SO, 0.83 WHIP
Tanaka's last season in Japan (Age 24): 24-0, 1.27 ERA, 212 IP, 183 SO, 0.94 WHIP
------------------
Otani 2016 Season in Japan (Age 21): 10-4, 1.86 ERA, 140 IP, 174 SO, 0.957 WHIP

I would be shocked if Otani wasnt a top end pitcher in the Majors (barring injury) but his hitting is what I am curious about.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Most are busts even if they start off well and they're usually overpaid. Those are pitchers. Hitters even have less luck even though one is a hall of famer..

Edit: And a Japanese Babe Ruth? An OPS of just over a 1.000 isn't close to being a Babe Ruth. And it's in Japan. Ruth would be hanging up 2.500 OPS there..

 

[tbone413]

Mitch, I agree with you that hitting a 1.000 OPS in japan doesn't mean he can be expected to hit at that clip in the Majors. But a 1.000 OPS is very good, and puts you in elite category. Only 1 person eclipsed it this year, (Big Papi), and I think only 5 players have done it the last 4 seasons.

IF (not happening, but if) he were to come to the Majors and replicate those numbers, he would win the MVP unanimously.

There is 0% chance of that happening, but clearly he has talent, and is young...so who knows if he can become a legit 'dual threat' (pitching/hitting) - id say he has the best chance of any prospect in decades?

 

[Mitchrapp]

Mitch, I agree with you that hitting a 1.000 OPS in japan doesn't mean he can be expected to hit at that clip in the Majors. But a 1.000 OPS is very good, and puts you in elite category. Only 1 person eclipsed it this year, (Big Papi), and I think only 5 players have done it the last 4 seasons.

IF (not happening, but if) he were to come to the Majors and replicate those numbers, he would win the MVP unanimously.

There is 0% chance of that happening, but clearly he has talent, and is young...so who knows if he can become a legit 'dual threat' (pitching/hitting) - id say he has the best chance of any prospect in decades?

Hitting in Japan is like a small College, like Grand Valley State.

 

[tbone413]

I cant remember where I read this, but I seem to recall some analyst suggesting that Japan pro ball is roughly equivalent to AAA.

If thats the case, his 1.004 OPS would have led the league, and been the third highest in the last 10 years.

Anyways - Ive never seen this kid take a single swing or pitch in a game before, so your guess is as good as mine when it comes to how he will turn out, but I will be interested in seeing how he does next year/who gets him

 

[Mitchrapp]

I cant remember where I read this, but I seem to recall some analyst suggesting that Japan pro ball is roughly equivalent to AAA.

If thats the case, his 1.004 OPS would have led the league, and been the third highest in the last 10 years.

Anyways - Ive never seen this kid take a single swing or pitch in a game before, so your guess is as good as mine when it comes to how he will turn out, but I will be interested in seeing how he does next year/who gets him

Now if he said AA we might be talking. The best players, many, don't get to AAA because they're so good. Like Miggy and JV.

 

[Rebbiv]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=otani-000sho

Hitting-wise, there is not much consistency to make any predictions. Pitching-wise, age and results suggest he would be a #1 pick if he was in a regular draft and put on a fast track to the majors.

 

[tbone413]

Rebbiv - what do you think the chances are that the team who signs him will let him bat semi-regularly? (either as a DH in AL, or playing in the field a few times a week in the NL)

Has a situatuation like that ever occured? I find it hard to believe that a team would be willing to risk injury to him by playing in the field/batting, especially if they paid $250-300mil. But who knows....

 

[Mitchrapp]

Rebbiv - what do you think the chances are that the team who signs him will let him bat semi-regularly? (either as a DH in AL, or playing in the field a few times a week in the NL)

Has a situatuation like that ever occured? I find it hard to believe that a team would be willing to risk injury to him by playing in the field/batting, especially if they paid $250-300mil. But who knows....

No P in these days will bat on off days. And why would they pay close to that? He is not Miggy.

 

[tbone413]

Well the Yankees gave Tanaka a 7 year $155mil contract when they signed him three years ago. This guy is younger, and by all accounts a more talented pitcher. Plus he can seemingly hit the ball as well.

Im not saying he deserves anywhere near $200 mil, yet alone $300mil, but that just goes to show how outrageous baseball contracts have become...

 

[Mitchrapp]

Well the Yankees gave Tanaka a 7 year $155mil contract when they signed him three years ago. This guy is younger, and by all accounts a more talented pitcher. Plus he can seemingly hit the ball as well.

Im not saying he deserves anywhere near $200 mil, yet alone $300mil, but that just goes to show how outrageous baseball contracts have become...

Then I'll have a good laugh. Tanaka was over paid. Way overpaid. 3 years, 1 AS - 5th in ROY and still hasn't pitched 200 innings in a year. For that money he better be a inning eater and Cy Young candidate.

 

[Rebbiv]

Tanaka is a top 15 starter and has a bargain for a contract. Otani does compare favorably to him. Tanaka just turned 28. If he was a FA and a team could get him for 4 years/$89 Mil (what is remaining on his contract), most teams would job at the chance.

There are many examples of pitchers who could also hit. A few off the top of my head would be Fernando Valenzuela, Mike Hampton or Rick Ankiel. Many don't know, but Stan Musial started out in the minors his first 3 years as a pitcher. Smokey Joe Wood was the Rick Ankiel of his day. He started as a pitcher and when his arm went dead (25), he played RF until age 32. There is virtually no way a team would use a starter as a hitter in his "off" days. They might have him pinch hit or even pinch run, and maybe as a late game replacement when all the players have been used. But certainly not out of design.

Bottom like. Otani has no consistent offensive output to draw any conclusions on his hitting. 2016 could have been a fluke/career year and be his outlier. Otani might be a tad better than Tanaka was at that age as a starter. Some team will pay the equivalent (7 yr/$155 Mil) if not more. But it will be as a pitcher.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Tanaka is a top 15 starter and has a bargain for a contract. Otani does compare favorably to him. Tanaka just turned 28. If he was a FA and a team could get him for 4 years/$89 Mil (what is remaining on his contract), most teams would job at the chance.

There are many examples of pitchers who could also hit. A few off the top of my head would be Fernando Valenzuela, Mike Hampton or Rick Ankiel. Many don't know, but Stan Musial started out in the minors his first 3 years as a pitcher. Smokey Joe Wood was the Rick Ankiel of his day. He started as a pitcher and when his arm went dead (25), he played RF until age 32. There is virtually no way a team would use a starter as a hitter in his "off" days. They might have him pinch hit or even pinch run, and maybe as a late game replacement when all the players have been used. But certainly not out of design.

Bottom like. Otani has no consistent offensive output to draw any conclusions on his hitting. 2016 could have been a fluke/career year and be his outlier. Otani might be a tad better than Tanaka was at that age as a starter. Some team will pay the equivalent (7 yr/$155 Mil) if not more. But it will be as a pitcher.

The point is he got a huge contract as a 25 year old rookie. In the amount of games/IP he pitched those first 2 seasons was being overpaid. Regardless where he is now and what he gets as a FA, he was over paid.

 

[Rebbiv]

The point is he got a huge contract as a 25 year old rookie. In the amount of games/IP he pitched those first 2 seasons was being overpaid. Regardless where he is now and what he gets as a FA, he was over paid.

I will respectfully disagree. I would gladly pay Tanaka $22 Mil to only pitch 22 Games a season than pay Pelfrey to pitch at all. That is overpaying. You cannot predict injuries. When healthy, Tanaka since the beginning has been a top 15 starter. Look at what top 15 starters make, and you will see he is relatively a bargain.

Now, ask me my feelings on long term contracts, and we open up an entirely different conversation. Would I have given Tanaka a 7-year contract from the get go, definitely not. Would I give Otani a long term contract? Not in a million years. We have yet to see a player return value over the length of the contract. I cannot think of too many players who got contracts of 5 years or more and returned value in each of those years. That said, Magglio Ordonez was "overpaid" in 4 of his 7 years with DET.

 

[Mitchrapp]

I will respectfully disagree. I would gladly pay Tanaka $22 Mil to only pitch 22 Games a season than pay Pelfrey to pitch at all. That is overpaying. You cannot predict injuries. When healthy, Tanaka since the beginning has been a top 15 starter. Look at what top 15 starters make, and you will see he is relatively a bargain.

Now, ask me my feelings on long term contracts, and we open up an entirely different conversation. Would I have given Tanaka a 7-year contract from the get go, definitely not. Would I give Otani a long term contract? Not in a million years. We have yet to see a player return value over the length of the contract. I cannot think of too many players who got contracts of 5 years or more and returned value in each of those years. That said, Magglio Ordonez was "overpaid" in 4 of his 7 years with DET.

You mention Pelfrey but how about Fullmer ..a rookie just like Tanaka was doing great and being cheap. That's what rookies are suppose to make. Tanaka year 1 was not worth over 20m. Year 2 was not worth over 20m.

And who cares if Magglio was overpaid, many players are. But this was about Tanaka and he was overpaid..

 

[Rebbiv]

You mention Pelfrey but how about Fullmer ..a rookie just like Tanaka was doing great and being cheap. That's what rookies are suppose to make. Tanaka year 1 was not worth over 20m. Year 2 was not worth over 20m.

And who cares if Magglio was overpaid, many players are. But this was about Tanaka and he was overpaid..

Foreign players have no correlation to drafted players when it comes to salary. That is why they want them to be drafted in the next CBA. Which makes this discussion mute. The CBA expires soon and could mean Otani is just put into the draft pool like all the other players.

 

[kalinecountry]

Found this story on this Japanese Pitcher/Hitter.
http://www.baseballessential.com/news/2016/11/14/shohei-otani-intrigue-two-way-player/
Shohei Otani: The Intrigue of a Two-Way Player.
BaseballEssential