- Thread Author
- #1
mhughes0021
Senior Member
- Joined
- Aug 1, 2011
- Messages
- 28,746
Detroit Lions fans have to be in a bit of a quandary right now. The team has registered only two winning seasons in this century and is on its eighth head coach in that time frame, yet the Lions look to be only a building block or two away from being a bona fide playoff contender.
One of those potential building blocks is at wide receiver in Calvin Johnson, which is where Detroit's draft dilemma comes in. Since 1998, Detroit has had one major draft success at that position (Johnson in the first round of the 2007 draft) and many major disappointments in both the first round (Charles Rogers and Mike Williams) and the second round (Germane Crowell and Titus Young).
That is why there is understandable trepidation that the Lions could invest the No. 10 pick in a wide receiver (as is projected in Todd McShay's latest mock) and may drive fans to hope the team goes in a different direction with that pick (Mel Kiper's latest mock has the Lions selecting Oklahoma State cornerback Justin Gilbert).
This leads to the question: What do the metrics and game tape say the Lions should do with this first pick? Is taking a wideout the way to go or should shoring up the secondary rank higher on the list? Let's take a look at the pros and cons of each approach to find the answer.
Taking a wide receiver at No. 10
Pros
The productivity drop-off from Johnson to the rest of the Lions' pass-catchers is gargantuan.
According to my tape research, Megatron posted 10.1 yards per attempt (YPA) on 146 targets last season and posted double-digit YPA totals on vertical (10.5 YPA on throws 11 or more yards downfield) and stretch vertical targets (10.6 YPA on aerials thrown 20 or more yards downfield). He also nearly reached the double-digit YPA mark on short targets (9.4 YPA on passes thrown 10 or fewer yards downfield).
That is a stark contrast to Detroit's overall YPA on throws to pass-catchers other than Johnson (7.1) as well as its vertical YPA (9.4), stretch vertical YPA (7.9) and short YPA (6.3).
Those figures don't get any better when the comparison is limited strictly to wide receivers, as their overall YPA (7.1), vertical YPA (8.6), stretch vertical YPA (8.1) and short YPA (6.2) marks are either equal to or worse than the overall team totals.
There simply isn't anyone on the Lions' current roster capable of fully taking advantage of the favorable coverages that lining up on the opposite side of Johnson can offer, so an upgrade is a necessity in a division where Detroit has to keep up with the high-powered passing attacks of the Packers and Bears (and potentially the Vikings under new offensive coordinator Norv Turner).
Cons
There is a lot of talk that the 2014 NFL draft is one of the deepest in recent memory. This is certainly true at wide receiver, as ESPN.com Detroit Lions team reporter Michael Rothstein notes that, "Of the top 100 players in ESPN.com's draft rankings, 14 are wide receivers; eight receivers are in the top 50."
Consider that Jordan Matthews, a Vanderbilt wide receiver who produced very favorable metrics in college, is listed as the ninth-best wideout in the Scouts Inc. wide receiver draft rankings.
As tempting as it is to imagine someone like Mike Evans, who had one of the best metric lines I've seen in 11 seasons of breaking down game tapes, line up opposite Johnson, the wide receiver depth in this draft is such that investing a pick there can wait one round.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Taking a cornerback at No. 10
Pros
The closest approximation to a shutdown cornerback on Detroit's roster last year was Rashean Mathis. His 6.7 YPA was better than the 7.5 YPA bar that serves as the league-wide median for cornerback performance and was highlighted by a 4.4 short pass YPA and an 8.6 vertical YPA. The issue in relying on Mathis is he is an unrestricted free agent who will turn 34 years of age by the start of the 2014 season.
The cornerback who should take over that dominant coverage player role is Chris Houston, but he is coming off of a disastrous 2013 campaign in which he allowed double-digit YPA marks at the overall (11.2), vertical (14.0) and stretch vertical (17.5) depth levels.
Detroit could also benefit greatly from adding a ball hawk to its cornerback corps. It would go a long way toward improving Detroit's mediocre interception total, as the Lions' 2.6 percent interception per attempt rate ranked 19th in the league according to ESPN Stats & Information, and cornerbacks accounted for only two of the club's 15 picks.
Those numbers show why drafting someone of Justin Gilbert's quality could be the way to go. Gilbert was a first-team All-Big 12 player last season for Oklahoma State on the strength of his seven interceptions, but he may have had an even better season in 2011 when he showcased both elite coverage (5.2 YPA, 6.8 vertical YPA) and interception skills (five picks).
Cons
Cornerbacks can be notoriously inconsistent. Gilbert is a textbook example of this, as he sandwiched the terrific 2013 and 2011 seasons around a 2012 campaign in which he played so poorly that he didn't even earn honorable mention on that season's official All-Big 12 roster.
Gilbert isn't the only cornerback like this, as Ohio State's Bradley Roby was plagued this past season by blown coverages that ballooned his YPA marks into double-digit territory.
This year's cornerback draft class also looks to be just as deep as the wide receiver draft class. Seven of Scouts Inc.'s top 50 prospects are cornerbacks and 15 cornerbacks rate in the top 101 players, so it isn't a necessity to take someone from this position in the first round.
Bottom line
In the end it's a lot harder to create turnovers on defense than it is to create passing yards on offense. Drafting Gilbert, Darqueze Dennard (who combines insanely great coverage metrics with 10 career interceptions) or Lamarcus Joyner (seven career picks and probably the most versatile cornerback in this year's draft) would help Detroit achieve that goal while also giving the team much-needed secondary help. Once that pick is made, the Lions can then concentrate on finding a wideout to give their offense a one-two passing punch to match the rest of the NFC North.
Bottom line: This is a team that can win without a first-round talent opposite Johnson, even if an upgrade is needed at that spot. But landing a top-level corner could be a game-changer for Detroit.
One of those potential building blocks is at wide receiver in Calvin Johnson, which is where Detroit's draft dilemma comes in. Since 1998, Detroit has had one major draft success at that position (Johnson in the first round of the 2007 draft) and many major disappointments in both the first round (Charles Rogers and Mike Williams) and the second round (Germane Crowell and Titus Young).
That is why there is understandable trepidation that the Lions could invest the No. 10 pick in a wide receiver (as is projected in Todd McShay's latest mock) and may drive fans to hope the team goes in a different direction with that pick (Mel Kiper's latest mock has the Lions selecting Oklahoma State cornerback Justin Gilbert).
This leads to the question: What do the metrics and game tape say the Lions should do with this first pick? Is taking a wideout the way to go or should shoring up the secondary rank higher on the list? Let's take a look at the pros and cons of each approach to find the answer.
Taking a wide receiver at No. 10
Pros
The productivity drop-off from Johnson to the rest of the Lions' pass-catchers is gargantuan.
According to my tape research, Megatron posted 10.1 yards per attempt (YPA) on 146 targets last season and posted double-digit YPA totals on vertical (10.5 YPA on throws 11 or more yards downfield) and stretch vertical targets (10.6 YPA on aerials thrown 20 or more yards downfield). He also nearly reached the double-digit YPA mark on short targets (9.4 YPA on passes thrown 10 or fewer yards downfield).
That is a stark contrast to Detroit's overall YPA on throws to pass-catchers other than Johnson (7.1) as well as its vertical YPA (9.4), stretch vertical YPA (7.9) and short YPA (6.3).
Those figures don't get any better when the comparison is limited strictly to wide receivers, as their overall YPA (7.1), vertical YPA (8.6), stretch vertical YPA (8.1) and short YPA (6.2) marks are either equal to or worse than the overall team totals.
There simply isn't anyone on the Lions' current roster capable of fully taking advantage of the favorable coverages that lining up on the opposite side of Johnson can offer, so an upgrade is a necessity in a division where Detroit has to keep up with the high-powered passing attacks of the Packers and Bears (and potentially the Vikings under new offensive coordinator Norv Turner).
Cons
There is a lot of talk that the 2014 NFL draft is one of the deepest in recent memory. This is certainly true at wide receiver, as ESPN.com Detroit Lions team reporter Michael Rothstein notes that, "Of the top 100 players in ESPN.com's draft rankings, 14 are wide receivers; eight receivers are in the top 50."
Consider that Jordan Matthews, a Vanderbilt wide receiver who produced very favorable metrics in college, is listed as the ninth-best wideout in the Scouts Inc. wide receiver draft rankings.
As tempting as it is to imagine someone like Mike Evans, who had one of the best metric lines I've seen in 11 seasons of breaking down game tapes, line up opposite Johnson, the wide receiver depth in this draft is such that investing a pick there can wait one round.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Taking a cornerback at No. 10
Pros
The closest approximation to a shutdown cornerback on Detroit's roster last year was Rashean Mathis. His 6.7 YPA was better than the 7.5 YPA bar that serves as the league-wide median for cornerback performance and was highlighted by a 4.4 short pass YPA and an 8.6 vertical YPA. The issue in relying on Mathis is he is an unrestricted free agent who will turn 34 years of age by the start of the 2014 season.
The cornerback who should take over that dominant coverage player role is Chris Houston, but he is coming off of a disastrous 2013 campaign in which he allowed double-digit YPA marks at the overall (11.2), vertical (14.0) and stretch vertical (17.5) depth levels.
Detroit could also benefit greatly from adding a ball hawk to its cornerback corps. It would go a long way toward improving Detroit's mediocre interception total, as the Lions' 2.6 percent interception per attempt rate ranked 19th in the league according to ESPN Stats & Information, and cornerbacks accounted for only two of the club's 15 picks.
Those numbers show why drafting someone of Justin Gilbert's quality could be the way to go. Gilbert was a first-team All-Big 12 player last season for Oklahoma State on the strength of his seven interceptions, but he may have had an even better season in 2011 when he showcased both elite coverage (5.2 YPA, 6.8 vertical YPA) and interception skills (five picks).
Cons
Cornerbacks can be notoriously inconsistent. Gilbert is a textbook example of this, as he sandwiched the terrific 2013 and 2011 seasons around a 2012 campaign in which he played so poorly that he didn't even earn honorable mention on that season's official All-Big 12 roster.
Gilbert isn't the only cornerback like this, as Ohio State's Bradley Roby was plagued this past season by blown coverages that ballooned his YPA marks into double-digit territory.
This year's cornerback draft class also looks to be just as deep as the wide receiver draft class. Seven of Scouts Inc.'s top 50 prospects are cornerbacks and 15 cornerbacks rate in the top 101 players, so it isn't a necessity to take someone from this position in the first round.
Bottom line
In the end it's a lot harder to create turnovers on defense than it is to create passing yards on offense. Drafting Gilbert, Darqueze Dennard (who combines insanely great coverage metrics with 10 career interceptions) or Lamarcus Joyner (seven career picks and probably the most versatile cornerback in this year's draft) would help Detroit achieve that goal while also giving the team much-needed secondary help. Once that pick is made, the Lions can then concentrate on finding a wideout to give their offense a one-two passing punch to match the rest of the NFC North.
Bottom line: This is a team that can win without a first-round talent opposite Johnson, even if an upgrade is needed at that spot. But landing a top-level corner could be a game-changer for Detroit.
