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NCAA tournament bracket chat

Michchamp

Michchamp

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 4, 2011
Messages
34,212
I don't have a very good feeling... for Michigan or the Big Ten. But that's just my gut. I hope I'm wrong.

I'm thinking it was a weird year for a lot of the big schools in the major conferences, and they're exhausted, beat up. Small scrappy teams that are just happy to be here are going to score some big upsets.

I don't know which ones, and I also don't know if anyone else agrees with me.
 
We got a pretty good draw in our bracket. Everyone is hyped up about LSU right now, but I believe they are the lowest ranked defensive team in the entire tourney. I think they come back to earth a bit and may not even get past the Bonnies. Even if they do, they have absolutely no one who can guard Dickinson. They'll have to double him every time he touches the ball or just allow him to destroy Watford or Days on the block. I'm not buying anyone from the SEC. Their top dog, Bama, is 1-3 vs the top 25 this year.

FSU is the 2nd lowest ranked 4 seed in the NET, somehow above Ok State. Ok State is better than them, so I see them as the weakest 4 seed. Good for us.

I see Texas as the biggest obstacle to the Final Four. No one else in our bracket is as good as Ohio State and we just took them to the wire while having an atrocious shooting day. It is not going to be anything remotely close to easy, but I think our D can carry us to a deep run. Anything can happen from there.
 
I agree I think lol. Gonzaga just may get it done this year. 26-0 a chance at immortality. Could be the the zags year. . Seems like Michigan is in trouble sadly losing Livers. But really it’s not like they were playing that good. 3-3 last six games. Hopefully these days off can get John’s Jr and Brown more reps as starters. I think Johns Jr. is the big key. He has to play well for use to keep advancing in my opinion.
 
thewolverines24 said:
We got a pretty good draw in our bracket. Everyone is hyped up about LSU right now, but I believe they are the lowest ranked defensive team in the entire tourney. I think they come back to earth a bit and may not even get past the Bonnies. Even if they do, they have absolutely no one who can guard Dickinson. They'll have to double him every time he touches the ball or just allow him to destroy Watford or Days on the block. I'm not buying anyone from the SEC. Their top dog, Bama, is 1-3 vs the top 25 this year.

FSU is the 2nd lowest ranked 4 seed in the NET, somehow above Ok State. Ok State is better than them, so I see them as the weakest 4 seed. Good for us.

I see Texas as the biggest obstacle to the Final Four. No one else in our bracket is as good as Ohio State and we just took them to the wire while having an atrocious shooting day. It is not going to be anything remotely close to easy, but I think our D can carry us to a deep run. Anything can happen from there.
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I think I'm still just bummed after how the season ended and losing Livers. I hope you're more right about this than I am.


FWIW, according to Vegas, we're the biggest liability for the bookies. money is still pouring in on us winning it all.
 
No Livers. LSU-St. Bonaventure winner. Two good teams. Alabama looms if M gets past R2. 2-2 in last four.

I don’t have the same optimism of three weeks ago.
 
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biggunsbob said:
I agree I think lol. Gonzaga just may get it done this year. 26-0 a chance at immortality. Could be the the zags year. . Seems like Michigan is in trouble sadly losing Livers. But really it?s not like they were playing that good. 3-3 last six games. Hopefully these days off can get John?s Jr and Brown more reps as starters. I think Johns Jr. is the big key. He has to play well for use to keep advancing in my opinion.
Click to expand...

His injury started in the Illinois game, so Livers was playing hurt in 5 of those last 6 games. UMHoops has been pointing that out, but it's been in the subscriber section only. Probably was doing us more harm than good at that point, but can't blame a Senior for trying to gut it out.

At least Juwan has time this week to get the new rotation run together. We had no time to do that before the OSU game and still about pulled it out.
 
biggunsbob said:
I agree I think lol. Gonzaga just may get it done this year. 26-0 a chance at immortality. Could be the the zags year. . Seems like Michigan is in trouble sadly losing Livers. But really it?s not like they were playing that good. 3-3 last six games. Hopefully these days off can get John?s Jr and Brown more reps as starters. I think Johns Jr. is the big key. He has to play well for use to keep advancing in my opinion.
Click to expand...


I guess that's what worries me... we lost to OSU (and that MSU loss) in close games where we faced adversity, but kinda played like shit still.

We didn't look scrappy though... And Howard flipping out and getting ejected vs. MD didn't help me feel confident either...

I hope he can work some magic getting these guys prepared.
 
The key for me is letting Brown play the 4 more than Johns. I don't care if Johns starts, but Brown needs to get 30 mins, not 23 like he did against OSU. Johns isn't as much of a threat to shoot from 3 simply because he refuses to shoot a lot of open looks. Screws up spacing for everyone else. I have no idea why he hesitates so often because he's a pretty good 3-point shooter (43% this year), but he does.
 
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Wagner, Brown, Dickinson, Brooks, Michigan has the weapons to get it done. Have to play smart and get tough. OSU collapsed on anyone coming inside, including Dickinson. So much so that Michigan players couldn't get the ball up. That together with the terrible shooting and the final play with Smith shooting a desperation three and they couldn't finish the comeback. I hope to see them play Brown more.
 
michchamp said:
Have 538's predictions on the tournament been any better than their normally lousy predictions on things?
Click to expand...

You're buying into talking heads blather. 538 is good stats.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-work/

March Madness past prediction forecast performance is here:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-work/march-madness-men/

They've made 1,726 predictions where they said something had a 4% chance of happening. 4% of those things happened.
They've made 416 predictions near 25% and 20% of those things happened.
 
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michchamp said:
Can you find a non-fivethirtyeight source?
Click to expand...

No, but that last metric is straightforward enough. Unless you think they are lying about how many predictions they made and how many turned out right or wrong. I think that's far more accurate than the impressions which are driven by everybody that's butthurt because they acted like Trump's 30% chance of winning meant zero.

There's a 'download this data' link too. Plenty of opportunity for someone to catch them if they were lying.
 
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My bracket has the following going to F4:
West: UCSB
South: Colgate
Midwest: Liberty
East: Abilene Christian

Why? Because it has been THAT kind of year.
 
biggunsbob said:
I agree I think lol. Gonzaga just may get it done this year. 26-0 a chance at immortality. Could be the the zags year. . Seems like Michigan is in trouble sadly losing Livers. But really it?s not like they were playing that good. 3-3 last six games. Hopefully these days off can get John?s Jr and Brown more reps as starters. I think Johns Jr. is the big key. He has to play well for use to keep advancing in my opinion.
Click to expand...

I think only the MSU loss is concerning. I'm not saying Michigan will win the national title, but losing to a 2 seed (OSU) and a 1 seed (Illinoi) is not really anything concerning. Michigan can still make a run and anything can happen.
 
michchamp said:
I guess that's what worries me... we lost to OSU (and that MSU loss) in close games where we faced adversity, but kinda played like shit still.

We didn't look scrappy though... And Howard flipping out and getting ejected vs. MD didn't help me feel confident either...

I hope he can work some magic getting these guys prepared.
Click to expand...

I don't see how Howard and Turdgeon flipping out on each other has any effect whatsoever on this issue...
 
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