Official CFP Playoff Semifinal Score Prediction Thread

[Michchamp]

When: December 31, 2021 at 5:30 PM Eastern/6:30 PM Central
TV: ESPN
Where: Miami Gardens, FL

#2 MICHIGAN (12-1) plays #3 GEORGIA (12-1) in the CFP Playoff Semifinal. The Alabama-Cincinnati game is earlier in the day.

History: This is only the third (3rd) all-time meeting between Michigan and Georgia, with the series tied 1-1. The prior two games might as well have been ancient history. Both were played in Ann Arbor; We won in 1957, 26-0, and lost in 1965, 15-7.

If you're curious, you can read the full game notes here on MGoBlue.com. I scanned through them. Of note, this Michigan team is the 6th Highest scoring Michigan team in history. Teams 1-5 were all Fielding Yost teams from 1901-1905. We need 6 pts to move into #5. 60 pts to move into #4. Also, Michigan safety Brad Hawkins is #1 in the all-time spot for games played at Michigan, with 55. His first game was vs. Cincinnati in 2017, and if we beat Georgia and Cincinnati beats Alabama, that could also be his last.

This Season: Both teams are similar on paper... solid defenses, and efficient offenses operating behind big OLs.

Sagarin's rankings give an edge to UGA overall. Much of that overall edge was built on UGA blowing out opponents that were ranked highly at the time, but finished with 3 or more losses (e.g. Arkansas, Auburn, or Kentucky). Looking back over their schedule, UGA really didn't play any tough road games, or really play anyone who could beat them until they played Alabama in the SEC Championship, and Alabama cruised to an easy win, despite an early 10 pt deficit, holding a 21 point lead with 12:00 left in the game.

As far as personnel issues, Michigan safety Dax Hill apparently hasn't traveled to Miami with the team; no one will say why. Georgia expects to be near 100% for the game.

UGA does have a bit of a QB controversy, with former starter & USC transfer JT Daniels sitting on the sidelines since week 2, and former walk-on Stetson Bennett leading their offense. Bennett has the track record of success, and the steady hand here, so I don't expect any controversy to affect the results, unless Bennett makes a lot of unforced errors.

Line: It seems most people expect a Georgia win here; the Line opened at UGA -7 1/2; I saw it move a whole pt in their favor to -8 1/2 last week, but it looks to be back to -7 1/2 now, with a 45 1/2 pt o/u.

So go ahead and post your picks, with some analysis if you wish, but as always... leave the woofing and the barking for other threads!

 

[Gulo Blue]

Of note, this Michigan team is the 6th Highest scoring Michigan team in history. Teams 1-5 were all Fielding Yost teams from 1901-1905.

This writeup is awesome, but I've got one edit: 2016, 524 points

https://mgoblue.com/news/2009/4/21/University_of_Michigan_Football_Annual_Team_Records.aspx

 

[bphillips4gg]

I'll kick this off.

Michigan - 31
UGA - 24

 

[rumseyhouse77]

I've been going back and forth on my prediction for this game. Low scoring game vs high scoring. I think Hasan is the real deal and will get his yards. Combine that with a health Corum, and Edwards coming into his own, I don't think Georgia is going to stop the running game. This will open up the passing game. Assuming Dax Hill is not going to be available the defense is going to have to pressure Bennett. I think they will be able to do that. Still, the Bulldogs will get theirs. My predictions: Michigan 38, Georgia 21. GO BLUE!

 

[Monster]

35-19 Michigan

 

[UMRules06]

The teams are similar it seems, and Georgia has been hearing for a long time that they're "mentally fragile" after being taken to task vs Bama in their last game. Michigan is going in as the consensus underdog despite appearing on paper to have played the tougher schedule and been more impressive down the stretch of the season. Both teams have reasons to play with chips on their shoulders. Feels like a total toss up to me.

It comes down to a late turnover as our defense seals the win late.

Michigan 24
Georgia 21

 

[thewolverines24]

I know the offense has greatly improved since the Wisconsin game, but that was the best run defense, and best in the country overall, we faced all year coming into the game against Georgia. Wisconsin held Haskins to 2.5 YPC and Corum to 3.1 YPC. Overall, we had 44 rushes, 112 yards, 2.5 YPC. Georgia isn't far behind Wisconsin as the #3 rush defense in the country. Wisconsin gives up 2.14 YPC, Georgia 2.6 YPC. Wisconsin gave up 9 rushing TDs this season, Georgia gave up 3. Wisconsin 65.2 YPG, Georgia 81.7 YPG.

While I want us to be able to run the ball, I believe the passing game is going to have to loosen up the defense for the run game. That's how Alabama had success against their D. We don't have their level of passing game, so I'm expecting this to be a low scoring, tight game. Our D just has to hold up their end of the bargain. Hopefully Dax will be flying down to help out with that.

Michigan - 20
Georgia - 17

 

[bphillips4gg]

I know the offense has greatly improved since the Wisconsin game, but that was the best run defense, and best in the country overall, we faced all year coming into the game against Georgia. Wisconsin held Haskins to 2.5 YPC and Corum to 3.1 YPC. Overall, we had 44 rushes, 112 yards, 2.5 YPC. Georgia isn't far behind Wisconsin as the #3 rush defense in the country. Wisconsin gives up 2.14 YPC, Georgia 2.6 YPC. Wisconsin gave up 9 rushing TDs this season, Georgia gave up 3. Wisconsin 65.2 YPG, Georgia 81.7 YPG.

While I want us to be able to run the ball, I believe the passing game is going to have to loosen up the defense for the run game. That's how Alabama had success against their D. We don't have their level of passing game, so I'm expecting this to be a low scoring, tight game. Our D just has to hold up their end of the bargain. Hopefully Dax will be flying down to help out with that.

Michigan - 20
Georgia - 17

The runs in the Wisconsin game and Michigan's commitment to continuing to run are why they were able to burn Wisconsin in the passing game. I agree that's the most comparable defense, but I don't think it is entirely indicative of what the offense is now. 3 more months of play book have been added plus almost a month to prepare vs. a week. Not to mention the development you've seen from individual players like Anthony, Edwards and even the tight ends. I don't expect to see them run over Georgia like they did Ohio State, but I expect better efficiency than what they had against Wisconsin.

 

[Michchamp]

The runs in the Wisconsin game and Michigan's commitment to continuing to run are why they were able to burn Wisconsin in the passing game. I agree that's the most comparable defense, but I don't think it is entirely indicative of what the offense is now. 3 more months of play book have been added plus almost a month to prepare vs. a week. Not to mention the development you've seen from individual players like Anthony, Edwards and even the tight ends. I don't expect to see them run over Georgia like they did Ohio State, but I expect better efficiency than what they had against Wisconsin.

gotta hand it to Harbaugh and his staff for quietly doing whatever needs to be done to beat opponents, and without any fanfare. McNamara hasn't put up huge numbers, but he's made throws when needed, and a lot of our short TD runs were set up by throws that got us within the 5 yard line.

what I like best about that, is our opponents keep preparing mainly to stop the run.

I think this game stays close for 3 quarters, then we break them with a couple 4th Q TDs.

UM....31
UGA..13

 

[tomdalton22]

I took the under and UM to cover.

UGA 21
UM 17

 

[mhughes0021]

I don't think we're going to be able run the ball consistently. All depends on giving cade time for wrs to get open. We need a big game from a wr....andrel?

 

[rumseyhouse77]

If Michigan can score on their first couple of possessions and hold Georgia to a field goal, I think Georgia will panic and crumble. Grab the momentum early and hold on to it!

 

[tomdalton22]

I took the under and UM to cover.

UGA 21
UM 17

winner?

 

[Michchamp]

winner?