Soo, who's the closer?

[turok]

This "C by C" scheme will likely very soon fail miserably, IMO. Not that it isn't a good idea, but b/c the Tigers currently lack enough halfway-decent RPs to make it work. How many RPs are needed to "qualify" as being a "committee"...3? 4? more? Their set up guy in Benoit doesn't want to close, Albuquerque is up & down, and runs hot & cold, Coke as has been aptly described, sucks vs RH batters, Dotel is old but could close occasionally, Rondon is unavailable for an undetermined amount of time, no matter what the Tigers brass claims are that he could return. Smyly is long relief, which leaves Downs and Villarreal as the most likely candidates. 2 doesn't qualify as a committee, unless Coke+Albuquerque+Dotel combined equal one committee closer, which gives them a total of only 3.

I will guess that if any of the Tigers' rivals in the ALCD get hot to start the season, and the Tigers' C by C blows some saves during April, the fanbase will begin to panic, the local sports MSM will begin to question Leyland's closer of choice after losses due to BlSv(s), then the Tigers brass will likely redouble their efforts to acquire a closer, through a trade or through FA by early May, especially if Rondon demonstrates in Toledo, that he is not ready to be be called up.

 

[Mitchrapp]

This "C by C" scheme will likely very soon fail miserably, IMO. Not that it isn't a good idea, but b/c the Tigers currently lack enough halfway-decent RPs to make it work. How many RPs are needed to "qualify" as being a "committee"...3? 4? more? Their set up guy in Benoit doesn't want to close, Albuquerque is up & down, and runs hot & cold, Coke as has been aptly described, sucks vs RH batters, Dotel is old but could close occasionally, Rondon is unavailable for an undetermined amount of time, no matter what the Tigers brass claims are that he could return. Smyly is long relief, which leaves Downs and Villarreal as the most likely candidates. 2 doesn't qualify as a committee, unless Coke+Albuquerque+Dotel combined equal one committee closer, which gives them a total of only 3.

I will guess that if any of the Tigers' rivals in the ALCD get hot to start the season, and the Tigers' C by C blows some saves during April, the fanbase will begin to panic, the local sports MSM will begin to question Leyland's closer of choice after losses due to BlSv(s), then the Tigers brass will likely redouble their efforts to acquire a closer, through a trade or through FA by early May, especially if Rondon demonstrates in Toledo, that he is not ready to be be called up.

C by C doesn't mean they need 5 RP's to make it work. Hell, two will do. Or someone like Coke who gets a LHB out and then using someone else. Just as long as JL doesn't have the need to keep a guy in there after 40 pitches, a run in and bases loaded.

 

[turok]

C by C doesn't mean they need 5 RP's to make it work. Hell, two will do. Or someone like Coke who gets a LHB out and then using someone else. Just as long as JL doesn't have the need to keep a guy in there after 40 pitches, a run in and bases loaded.

Okay, so if the Tigers initially have a closer committee that totals only two, and one proves to be noticeably more effective than the other, how will Tigers fans feel when/if Leyland continues to trot out the less effective committee closer in "actual" save situations, and the more effective committee closer in "non-save" situations, just b/c of sticking to a plan of using one or the other when it is their "turn"? Even IF Leyland is quick to use the hook, especially in games that the Tigers are clinging to a one-run lead, there will obviously be very little margin for error by the time "another" RP comes into the game.

 

[lonesometiger]

This could be the mother of all backfire failures!

Really this could be blown save after blown save. Starters could pitch a great game only to see the BP lose it!

 

[Mitchrapp]

Okay, so if the Tigers initially have a closer committee that totals only two, and one proves to be noticeably more effective than the other, how will Tigers fans feel when/if Leyland continues to trot out the less effective committee closer in "actual" save situations, and the more effective committee closer in "non-save" situations, just b/c of sticking to a plan of using one or the other when it is their "turn"? Even IF Leyland is quick to use the hook, especially in games that the Tigers are clinging to a one-run lead, there will obviously be very little margin for error by the time "another" RP comes into the game.

But we don't at this time. If, after 40-50 games, a guys getting it done than go with him. I never said C-C for the whole season. But at the moment it does no good forcing a guy to close "just because" you're suppose to have a closer..

 

[Mitchrapp]

This could be the mother of all backfire failures!

Really this could be blown save after blown save. Starters could pitch a great game only to see the BP lose it!

So pick a guy to close then, eh?

 

[Rebbiv]

I will state this one more time.

The difference between an elite closer and an average closer is only 1-2 saves (wins) per year. That is it.

Having a closer by committee does not decrease these odds.

Most blown saves come with only 1-run leads and quite a few of them come after there is men on base and/or scoring position. The amount of blown saves with 2+ runs or more are rare.

 

[Thumb]

Were we really any more comfortable in the days of Valverde, Rodney, or Jones in the 9th just because we knew who it was going to be? We all know the answer to that, dig through old game threads if you need confirmation.

Needing a man named as a designated closer is a crutch, we have the talent in the back end of the bullpen to finish any game against any hitter, and now that we can mix and match R/L or turn a switch hitter around to his weak side....that's a plus for this team, not a minus.

 

[Rebbiv]

Phil Coke

 

[Mitchrapp]

For a day. He only faced 2 batters with one being a lefty. Otherwise it would probably be someone else.

 

[turok]

Still don't like C by C but I am too used to a set closer, ever since the bygone days of one of my all-time favorite Tigers, John Hiller. He had an IRL heart attack almost midway through his career, but he never gave me one when he took the mound. Wish that we had his equivalent in the pen now.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Not sure Hiller was really consider a closer outside that one year (at least in the typical sense). Most season's he would finish 35-45-50 games and only get about 10-15 saves. He just pitched in the 8th and 9th whether we were winning by 5, tie game or losing. Those were just his innings.

 

[Slick]

i said 3 months ago Phil Coke would be closing games.....Smokes knew it to.

 

[Mitchrapp]

i said 3 months ago Phil Coke would be closing games.....Smokes knew it to.

He got two outs, lada da. One game. We'll see next week. I expect him to use several or at least 3, Coke, Benoit and possibly AA.

For the fact Coke sucks balls at getting RH out.

 

[Thumb]

i said 3 months ago Phil Coke would be closing games.....Smokes knew it to.

Benoit started the inning, Coke came on to get Morneau, and Smokes left him in so Doumit would hit from his weaker side. As many of us said all along, use the best options, and in this case, Benoit then Coke was it.

Phil coke will get some saves, but he won't be the closer. I'll be pretty happy if we finish more games with more than 1 guy pitching the 9th.

 

[Rebbiv]

AL Averages per team

2012 = 42.1 Saves 16.2 Blown Saves 72.2% (DET 40 Saves 16 BLSV 71.4%)

2011 = 38.3 Saves 18.2 Blown Saves 67.8% (DET 50 Saves 10 BLSV 83.3%)

2010 = 40.6 Saves 17.9 Blown Saves 69.4% (DET 32 Saves 13 BLSV 71.1%)

2009 = 39.8 Saves 18.9 Blown Saves 67.8% (DET 42 Saves 24 BLSV 57.1%)

2008 = 41.1 Saves 20.9 Blown Saves 66.3% (DET 34 Saves 28 BLSV 54.8%)

2007 = 39.6 Saves 18.9 Blown Saves 67.7% (DET 44 Saves 21 BLSV 67.7%)

2006 = 41.6 Saves 19.6 Blown Saves 68.0% (DET 46 Saves 16 BLSV 74.2%)

AVG = 40.4 Saves 18.7 Blown Saves 68.4% (DET 41.1 Saves 18.3 BLSV 69.2%)


Best Save Percentages

2012 = TBR 86.2%

2011 = DET 83.9%

2010 = TBR 76.1%

2009 = TEX 77.6%

2008 = NYY 80.8%

2007 = BOS 78.9%

2006 = MIN 80.0%


On average, a team has 59 save opportunities per year, with 40 saves. The best team in save percentages average between 45-50 saves. This is at the team level and not necessarily at the closer level.

A lot of these blown saves are for the relievers that enter in the 6th, 7th and or 8th innings and not necessarily the closers themselves. Saves can come from 4+-run leads (depending on who is on and out) or with 1-run leads.

The difference between an average closer and an elite closer is really only 1-2 saves (wins) a year. That is it. It would be the difference between Todd Jones and Marino Rivera, except Mo would not cause as many heart attacks. That's all.

 

[lonesometiger]

I will state this one more time.

The difference between an elite closer and an average closer is only 1-2 saves (wins) per year. That is it.

Having a closer by committee does not decrease these odds.

Most blown saves come with only 1-run leads and quite a few of them come after there is men on base and/or scoring position. The amount of blown saves with 2+ runs or more are rare.

4-3-13 1-run blown save bingo!

 

[Rebbiv]

4-3-13 1-run blown save bingo!

1-run, with 1 runner on base and no outs. Again, these are the blown saves that are the norm. 3-run lead with no one on are rare.