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How many 22 year olds consistently put together solid 6 inning starts? Labeling a guy a bullpen arm that young in their career is pretty foolish in my opinion



First off that was in response to someone saying he was going to be a solid 3/4 SP for us next year. If you want to call me foolish for labeling him a bullpen arm, how foolish are the people who cant see he's not ready to really be in the rotation?

I used 6 innings because you need starters that wont kill your bullpen. I'm also not saying one has to go 6.0+ every time either, but you gotta at least be over 50/50. Someone else named him a 3/4 starter, know a single 3/4 starter in all of MLB that routinely gets yanked as early as him?

Daniel Norris game logs for 2012:

(TOR)
Apr 9, 5.2 IP
Apr 14, 5.0 IP
Apr 19, 2.2 IP
Apr 25, 7.0 IP
Apr 30, 3.0 IP

(Det)
Aug 2, 7.1 IP
Aug 7, 3.1 IP
Aug 12, 6.1 IP
Aug 19, 4.1 IP

Sept 16, 3.2 IP
Sept 22, 5.0 IP
Sept 29, 1.2 IP

Oct 4, 5.0 IP

He's throwing too many pitches to record outs, and that's why he's not going deep into games. Two options for 2016, either he makes the Tigers or he doesn't. If he doesn't hopefully he can learn to be more efficient at AAA, or he can work on it while part of the bullpen. Because if we're counting on him as a major part of our rotation next year, we're in for a long, long season.

As for the 22 year old part: Porcello, Kershaw, A. Sanchez to name just a few. And Chris Sale went to the bullpen when he was 22, became a starter at 23, that has worked out pretty well.
 
I long ago accepted the reality that this team will not be competitive in 2-3 years regardless of the path they take.

I know. I meant thought, you get rid of Miggy, JV, JD etc it might take 7-8 years.
 
How many 22 year olds consistently put together solid 6 inning starts? Labeling a guy a bullpen arm that young in their career is pretty foolish in my opinion


Through age 23, Verlander had 21 of his first 32 MLB starts (65.6%) where he went at least 6 innings.

Through age 22, Norris has 3 of his first 14 MLB starts (21.4%) where he went at least 6 innings.

Average / #3 starters generally average more than 50%.

Norris is looking more like Wil Ledezma or Oliver Perez, than David Price. It wasn't until age 30 that someone figured out Oliver Perez couldn't start and that he could be an effective reliever.

Time will tell with Norris. But even at 22, he isn't starting out very well and his minor league numbers aren't painting that much of a different story.

And I agree with Thumb, it is absurd to call him a solid 3/4.
 
It might and if it does it will take 10-12 if you get rid of them. Always going to take longer if you get rid of Miggy. Dumbest thing they can do..

theoretically (with good management) it should not take any longer than the contracts of JV and Miggy since once their contracts are gone they will be able to use that $56-$60M per year to get new players. That is in theory...if management knows what they are doing. My guess it won't be Avila.

As far as the dumbest thing they can do...the dumbest thing they can do is NOT listen to offers. I would NOT be in favor of trading Miggy for minor league players...it would have to be for at least 2 every day players plus a few prospects.
 
Through age 23, Verlander had 21 of his first 32 MLB starts (65.6%) where he went at least 6 innings.

Through age 22, Norris has 3 of his first 14 MLB starts (21.4%) where he went at least 6 innings.

Average / #3 starters generally average more than 50%.

Norris is looking more like Wil Ledezma or Oliver Perez, than David Price. It wasn't until age 30 that someone figured out Oliver Perez couldn't start and that he could be an effective reliever.

Time will tell with Norris. But even at 22, he isn't starting out very well and his minor league numbers aren't painting that much of a different story.

And I agree with Thumb, it is absurd to call him a solid 3/4.

Maybe the Tigers have another Andrew Miller and they don't even know it!
 
With the right moves (i.e. pitching staff), they can contend next year. However, I am not sure they will be able to do it.
 
I think we have a good core to contend providing we address the pitching staff exclusively. We have to get a couple quality starting pitchers. JV and Sanchez should be better next year. If we got only one good quality starter, then make Wilson a starter. Bullpen is going to be tough to address. Getting a closer is worthless if we can not establish solid 7th & 8th inning guys.

Positionally, I can not stand Casty at the hot corner but we are stuck with him I fear. Looking forward to seeing Collins run out there in LF every day. Love to get Cespedes back and move him to CF, keep Gose as 4th guy. I think Vmart will rebound.

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk
 
Reload, OBVIOUSLY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

McCann, very good rookie campaign (26 next year).
V-Mar, more like last half than first (the only actual OLD player on the team at 37 next year).
Miggy, first fully healthy off season in 3 years! (Will be 33 next year not 40.)
Kinsler, cheaper next season but coming of one of, if not, his best seasons (34 next year not 44).
Iggy, head trouble and maturity issues, sure, but batting .300 with great fielding (26 next year).
Castellanos, better at the end of the season than he was at the start and better at the start of the season than he was at the end of last season and better at the end of last season than he was at the start of that season. The kid keeps improving, that is as good sign. (24 next year).
JD, another guy who keeps getting better (28 next season, Aug).
Gose, he showed signs of improvement (26 next season, Aug).
Collins, a serviceable fielder who needs to keep hitting and have a good defensive back up (26 next year).

JV, back up to 99mph on the gun, will break 100mph next year, and be back to 100% JV -- great pitchers often have better 30s than 20s, I look for him to win a Cy next year, he has been one of the best pitchers at the end of this season, still not with all his tools fully back online, 33 next year not 43, rumors of his power-outage were greatly exaggerated).

Sanchez has a shoulder issue, he needs to be handled with care, but he is still a heck of a pitcher when healthy (32 next year, not 42).

Norris, lots of promise in this lefty, (23 next year, yeah, 23).

BTW, the tigers are one of the younger team sin the league, ESPN pretendes like they are old as dirt, but they are NOT.

Other reliable folks, Romine and Machado as a backups (they could be used to replace Iglesias if he were traded for a starter). Marte and Moya left something to be desired to me.

Verhagen, Wilson, Hardy are promising pitchers for next year, BBQ should be gone, Rondon should become someone else's headache, maybe Farmer and Ryan can be bullpen arms.

Maybe Boyd/Lobstien/Greene can hold down a spot in the rotation.


Tigers need to start the season with at least one more starter of near ace caliber (aka David Price or like him), a closer, probably 1-3 more bull pen arms, and maybe another starter.

Pitching is
ROTATION
JV
Fill-in-the-blank (FA)
Sanchez
Fill-in-the-blank (maybe Byod/Lobstien/Greene
Norris
Fill-in-the-blank (probably Byod/Lobstien/Greene)
PEN
Wilson
Hardy
Verhangen
Fill-in-the-blank (probably Ryan/Farmer)
Fill-in-the-blank
Fill-in-the-blank
Fill-in-the-blank (FA closer)

They do not need a second starter FA nor do they need a Left Fielder on opening day, they must pick this up by the deadline next year if they want to go deep into the playoffs.
But, a better pen (including a closer) and a second top tier starter are NOT optional by the start of the 2016 season.
At least one MUST be a big name to inspire confidence, Al Avila needs to make a splash.

The danger is if he gets too cute trying to impress. Retaining Ausmus feels a bit like doing the opposite of what everyone thinks that he should do rather than actually doing what he things is best (his press conference was a bit defensive).

Cespadas would be a great pick up, but a top tier pitcher would be better.
The Tigers problem is not lack of offense or even its defense, which admittedly has under-performed.
No, right now it is pitching, pitching, pitching, from the starting rotation to the non-existent closer.
 
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Detroit scored the fewest runs in the AL after the All Star break. While pitching is a bigger concern, to blatantly overlook this anemic offense is naive.

Offensive Rank

C = 20th

1B = 12th

2B = 2nd

SS = 5th

3B = 23rd

LF = 1st (primarily from Cespedes)

CF = 21st

RF = 3rd

DH = 14th


McCann is being over hyped by the media.

2015 Away
.247 BAVG .277 OBP .332 SLG .609 OPS

2015 2nd Half
.250 BAVG .274 OBP .346 SLG .620 OPS

His Away and 2nd half split are more inline with his minor league numbers. Where his offense got a boost in 2015, was the unsustainable (.386 BABIP) against LHP. He cannot frame a pitch, call a good game or has issues with setting up too early. So what if he didn't commit an error, neither did Avila or Holaday. How does a catcher get an error? Well, generally, chances are for the third strike in a strikeout and when throwing out baseball stealers. There were 128 errors by AL Catchers in 2015, 90 (70.3%) while making a throw. DET catchers only had 77 assist in 2015. 77 chances as a team to commit a throwing error. And finally is the caught stealing...after starting the season with 52.0 CS% (June 28th), McCann was 34.1% after that, barely above league average. What statistic or peripheral suggests McCann got better as the season went on or that he will be better in 2016? There is none.

Castellanos did not improve and Gose is a joke. If we are counting on them just because of their age, god help us.

After Cabrera and Avila, not a single Tiger had a walk rate better than league average. At some point, this trend has to be addressed. Some of us know the importance of making the opposing starter to rack up pitch counts. It helps to get to the bull pen over a course of a series.
 
Detroit scored the fewest runs in the AL after the All Star break. While pitching is a bigger concern, to blatantly overlook this anemic offense is naive.

Offensive Rank

C = 20th

1B = 12th

2B = 2nd

SS = 5th

3B = 23rd

LF = 1st (primarily from Cespedes)

CF = 21st

RF = 3rd

DH = 14th


McCann is being over hyped by the media.

2015 Away
.247 BAVG .277 OBP .332 SLG .609 OPS

2015 2nd Half
.250 BAVG .274 OBP .346 SLG .620 OPS

His Away and 2nd half split are more inline with his minor league numbers. Where his offense got a boost in 2015, was the unsustainable (.386 BABIP) against LHP. He cannot frame a pitch, call a good game or has issues with setting up too early. So what if he didn't commit an error, neither did Avila or Holaday. How does a catcher get an error? Well, generally, chances are for the third strike in a strikeout and when throwing out baseball stealers. There were 128 errors by AL Catchers in 2015, 90 (70.3%) while making a throw. DET catchers only had 77 assist in 2015. 77 chances as a team to commit a throwing error. And finally is the caught stealing...after starting the season with 52.0 CS% (June 28th), McCann was 34.1% after that, barely above league average. What statistic or peripheral suggests McCann got better as the season went on or that he will be better in 2016? There is none.

Castellanos did not improve and Gose is a joke. If we are counting on them just because of their age, god help us.

After Cabrera and Avila, not a single Tiger had a walk rate better than league average. At some point, this trend has to be addressed. Some of us know the importance of making the opposing starter to rack up pitch counts. It helps to get to the bull pen over a course of a series.

I was curious so I looked up leaders for pitches per plate appearance

Avila 4.47
Gose 3.97
JD 3.95
Victor 3.94
Nick 3.89
Miggy 3.88
Ian 3.74
Rajai 3.74
Iggy 3.73
 
McCann, very good rookie campaign (26 next year). He was not good.
V-Mar, more like last half than first (the only actual OLD player on the team at 37 next year). No where to go.
Miggy, first fully healthy off season in 3 years! (Will be 33 next year not 40.) Keeper.
Kinsler, cheaper next season but coming of one of, if not, his best seasons (34 next year not 44). Can't trade might as well keep.
Iggy, head trouble and maturity issues, sure, but batting .300 with great fielding (26 next year). Yep.
Castellanos, better at the end of the season than he was at the start and better at the start of the season than he was at the end of last season and better at the end of last season than he was at the start of that season. The kid keeps improving, that is as good sign. (24 next year). Sucks bad.
JD, another guy who keeps getting better (28 next season, Aug). Agree.
Gose, he showed signs of improvement (26 next season, Aug). Sucks bad.
Collins, a serviceable fielder who needs to keep hitting and have a good defensive back up (26 next year). Backup.

JV, back up to 99mph on the gun, will break 100mph next year, and be back to 100% JV -- great pitchers often have better 30s than 20s, I look for him to win a Cy next year, he has been one of the best pitchers at the end of this season, still not with all his tools fully back online, 33 next year not 43, rumors of his power-outage were greatly exaggerated).

Sanchez has a shoulder issue, he needs to be handled with care, but he is still a heck of a pitcher when healthy (32 next year, not 42).

Norris, lots of promise in this lefty, (23 next year, yeah, 23).

BTW, the tigers are one of the younger team sin the league, ESPN pretendes like they are old as dirt, but they are NOT.

Other reliable folks, Romine and Machado as a backups (they could be used to replace Iglesias if he were traded for a starter). Marte and Moya left something to be desired to me.

Verhagen, Wilson, Hardy are promising pitchers for next year, BBQ should be gone, Rondon should become someone else's headache, maybe Farmer and Ryan can be bullpen arms.

Maybe Boyd/Lobstien/Greene can hold down a spot in the rotation.


Tigers need to start the season with at least one more starter of near ace caliber (aka David Price or like him), a closer, probably 1-3 more bull pen arms, and maybe another starter.

Pitching is
ROTATION
JV
Fill-in-the-blank (FA)
Sanchez
Fill-in-the-blank (maybe Byod/Lobstien/Greene
Norris
Fill-in-the-blank (probably Byod/Lobstien/Greene)
PEN
Wilson
Hardy
Verhangen
Fill-in-the-blank (probably Ryan/Farmer)
Fill-in-the-blank
Fill-in-the-blank
Fill-in-the-blank (FA closer)

They do not need a second starter FA nor do they need a Left Fielder on opening day, they must pick this up by the deadline next year if they want to go deep into the playoffs.
But, a better pen (including a closer) and a second top tier starter are NOT optional by the start of the 2016 season.
At least one MUST be a big name to inspire confidence, Al Avila needs to make a splash.

The danger is if he gets too cute trying to impress. Retaining Ausmus feels a bit like doing the opposite of what everyone thinks that he should do rather than actually doing what he things is best (his press conference was a bit defensive).

Cespadas would be a great pick up, but a top tier pitcher would be better.
The Tigers problem is not lack of offense or even its defense, which admittedly has under-performed.
No, right now it is pitching, pitching, pitching, from the starting rotation to the non-existent closer.

I answered some of those.
 
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It might and if it does it will take 10-12 if you get rid of them. Always going to take longer if you get rid of Miggy. Dumbest thing they can do..

If you get rid of miggy, there will be picketers outside of comerica, beside, mr I Wouldn't allow that to happen.
 
I think we have a good core to contend providing we address the pitching staff exclusively. We have to get a couple quality starting pitchers. JV and Sanchez should be better next year. If we got only one good quality starter, then make Wilson a starter. Bullpen is going to be tough to address. Getting a closer is worthless if we can not establish solid 7th & 8th inning guys.

Positionally, I can not stand Casty at the hot corner but we are stuck with him I fear. Looking forward to seeing Collins run out there in LF every day. Love to get Cespedes back and move him to CF, keep Gose as 4th guy. I think Vmart will rebound.

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

I agree with you about Castellanos, but I don't know if they would resign Cespedes. Gordon Would be a good sign. It appears that KC will decline his option making him a free agent.
 
These are my guesses as to what they will do this off season.

Sign a starting pitcher from outside the org. My guess is they will sign a stop gap type pitcher that will end up being a non factor. Probably an older player to a one year deal.

3-4 BP arms.

With a miracle maybe somebody steps up within the org...but probably going to have to sign at least 3 from outside the org. Hopefully they don't break the bank and waste a bunch of money on a closer like they have in the past. Just sign some quality arms.

they need 1 corner OF, Probably going to be Tyler Collins.

Catcher

My guess they will go with McCann and Avila again....just a guess. If they do, hopefully it is a true lefty / righty platoon.

3B....they will stand pat with Nick.

CF...they will likely sign a platoon partner for Gose.

These are my guesses. I also predict another sub .500 year.
 
Lots of interesting responses, and as I expected we are split as a fanbase over which direction to go.

My thoughts for the offseason are that we should trade Kinsler and JD for players that have already proved themselves, or at least shown good promise, in the majors. Preferably get a solid starter (2-3), RF, and BP arms in the deals along with some lottery tickets in the minors. Illitch can afford to eat some of Kinsler's contract if he has to.

Miggy (injuries/contract), JV (injuries/contract), VMart (Injuries, age, contract), and Sanchez (injuries, contract) are not going to return peak value until they play injury free for some time and produce commensurate w/ their contracts.

Sign one starter for the 3 or 4 spot in the rotation this offseason, preferably on deal shorter than 4 years (no big name ace, but show everyone we are heading into the season with a major league rotation, not depending on young guys too much). Take a 2 year flyer on high quality starter coming off major injury (you never know). Resign Davis for LF/CF platoon with Gose. JD replaced (lesser player, sure) through earlier trade, Machado plays 2nd (he can handle the defense, but will probably be bad offensively).

Opening day roster:

CF Gose/Davis
LF Davis/Collins
RF Trade/FA
1B Miggy/VMart
2B Machado/?
SS Iggy/Romine/Machado
3B Castellanos/Romine
DH VMart/Miggy
C McCann/?

Rotation
JV
Sanchez
trade or FA
trade or FA
In house pitcher

BP:
Closer: Trade or FA
8th: Wilson
7th: trade or FA
trade/FA/in house
trade/FA/in house
Verhaggen
Hardy
Kroll


My guess is that this team will be out of the race by the trade deadline, but I hope that Miggy, VMart, Sanchez, and JV (all or just a few of them) will increase their trade value and the selloff will continue at the trade deadline and next winter. Enter full rebuild.
 
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