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Titus Young released

taking a poke is all fine n dandy. he cheap shotted delmas from behind in the back of the head.....dude is fucking loony toones. Theres absolutely no way to defend mayhew in this situation....he picked a fucking retard in round 2 and within 2 years hes off our team. When "bad luck" is an excuse WAY too often just maybe its the guy causing all the bad luck? Picking a guy with a mush brain then having him mush his brain even more a couple years later isn't bad luck. Picking a retard and then watching him go full retard 2 years later isn't bad luck. Is picking a smaller slot WR with previous knee injuries and then he injures his other knee really bad luck? Is picking a 3rd rd cb and moving him to safety considered bad luck when he doesn't pan out? How about picking a a DT that was a top 3 lock all year but then he dropped on most everyones board due to injury concerns...then hes injured the first 2 years of his career....is that bad luck?

ps I played sports all thru college....none of my teammates ever punched each other.

You played sports? Good for you. So did i and i have seen guys go at each other. It happens. It's not the end of the world...hormones kick in and sometimes shit gets said and someone gets punched in the mouth. After that, you're buddies again having a beer and laughing it off.
 
Schwartz wanted Spievey....he was a CB drafted with full intent to be moved to Safety.
 
You played sports? Good for you. So did i and i have seen guys go at each other. It happens. It's not the end of the world...hormones kick in and sometimes shit gets said and someone gets punched in the mouth. After that, you're buddies again having a beer and laughing it off.

I agree for the most part, Tony. The only time I'd say there's really an exception is when the locker room is a mess and your team stinks... like it is with the Lions. Winning seems to cure most issues, and losing tends to divide a team even more. I played on some terrible teams and there were guys who legitimately hated each others guts and it just got worse and worse along with the record. I don't doubt for a second that a guy like Young was contributing to the slide of the Lions and creating issues based solely on his attitude and approach towards teammates.
 
I hate Seifert but he wrote a good article this week that paints how Mayhews 4 drafts havent led to much:

8 starters
20 still on roster but 6 are FAs
13' defensive overhaul
13' oline overhaul

A closer look at Martin Mayhew's drafts
February, 5, 2013 Feb 512:15PM ETBy Kevin Seifert | ESPN.com Recommend2 Tweet12 Comments301Email Print As many of you have pointed out, the release of Detroit Lions receiver Titus Young pretty much wrapped up the "Have at It" debates we generated a few years ago about the best young receiver in the NFC North. (Hint: It wasn't Young.) It also opens the door for an inspection of the Lions' drafts under general manager Martin Mayhew, who took over the NFL's most barren roster when promoted to his current role after the 2008 season.

Detroit Lions Drafts: 2009-12
The 20 players remaining on the Lions' roster from Martin Mayhew's four drafts. Eight were 2012 starters.

Rd. Year Player Pos.
1a 2009 Matthew Stafford QB
1b 2009 Brandon Pettigrew TE
1a 2010 Ndamukong Suh DT
1b 2010 Jahvid Best+ RB
1 2011 Nick Fairley DE
1 2012 Riley Reiff OL
2 2009 Louis Delmas* S
2b 2011 Mikel Leshoure RB
2 2012 Ryan Broyles WR
3 2009 DeAndre Levy* LB
3 2010 Amari Spievey# S
3 2012 Bill Bentley CB
4 2009 Sammie Hill* DT
4 2010 Jason Fox# OL
4 2012 Ronnell Lewis DE
5 2012 Tahir Whitehead LB
5 2012 Chris Greenwood CB
6 2012 Jonte Green CB
7 2010 Willie Young# DE
7 2012 Travis Lewis LB
*Pending Unrestricted FA
#Pending Restricted FA
+Not cleared to play
The chart shows the 20 Mayhew draft picks who remain on the roster. Eight were 2012 starters, and of the larger group, six are pending free agents whose return is at least uncertain.

On the whole, we can see that many of the Lions' best players are Mayhew draft picks, be it quarterback Matthew Stafford or defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh or even defensive tackle Nick Fairley. (Receiver Calvin Johnson was selected in 2007, the penultimate year of Matt Millen's tenure.) There have been some low-round hits, most notably 2010 seventh-rounder Willie Young, and two high-profile failures.

Young, of course, is one. The other is tailback Jahvid Best, whose complicated situation we discussed in depth last fall. Things have changed a lot since 2010, and given Best's history of concussions, it is highly unlikely he would be a first-round draft pick in 2013. The Lions gambled that Best's prior concussions wouldn't make him more susceptible to future ones, a passable projection three years ago that has since proved folly.

More than anything, Mayhew's drafts lack the kind of volume that would have been necessary to fully restock the Lions' roster over a four-year period. Compare their raw numbers to the recent drafts of the Green Bay Packers, who are the NFL's gold standard draft-and-develop program.

The Packers have 26 players on their roster from their past four drafts, including 14 who spent time as 2012 starters. In fact, the Packers had a former draft pick or undrafted free agent start at every position last season, including place-kicker and punter.

I won't suggest that the Lions have to match the Packers' draft practices to be successful. Good teams can be built in different ways. But as Mayhew approaches his fifth draft, we've already discussed the possibility of a defensive overhaul and noted that the team needs to beef up its depth at receiver, running back and offensive line as well. That's a long list of needs for a group that has been at this four years already.
 
Mayhew has 8 starters in 4 years worth of drafts (~3 years worth of actual picks). NFL franchises average 1.8 starters per draft in the long run. on average that would be 7.2 starters over 4 years worth of drafting. therefore Mayhew has, by definition, been average at drafting in time and above average in actual average starter per pick. this is all without counting the 5-6 starters he has acquired by trading late round draft picks. sorry fans and sports reporters have unreal expectations of how shit actually works, but...

edit: its all fun and what not to cherry pick teams to compare and contrast our draft record with like Seifort does with the Packers but they are not the norm in the NFL. 14 starters in 4 years is wayyyy on the high side of the bell curve.
 
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Mayhew has 8 starters in 4 years worth of drafts (~3 years worth of actual picks). NFL franchises average 1.8 starters per draft in the long run. on average that would be 7.2 starters over 4 years worth of drafting. therefore Mayhew has, by definition, been average at drafting in time and above average in actual average starter per pick. this is all without counting the 5-6 starters he has acquired by trading late round draft picks. sorry fans and sports reporters have unreal expectations of how shit actually works, but...

edit: its all fun and what not to cherry pick teams to compare and contrast our draft record with like Seifort does with the Packers but they are not the norm in the NFL. 14 starters in 4 years is wayyyy on the high side of the bell curve.

Correct, we are a anomally cause he was taking over an 0-16 team. You would think that with that being the case his number should be WAY above average since he was in charge of turning over a winless roster. Drafting 2 starters a year and not being active in FA isnt really getting the job done when you had crap to start with. As evidenced by the 8 starters we still need on defense and the 4-5 we need on offense.
 
hughes, add the 6 starters he's acquired via trade with draft picks to the 8 starters he's drafted and he's way above average and right on par with ted thompson, inarguably one of the best GM's in the league.

now lets look at the actual talent

* - a 25 year old franchise QB. one of 3 guys in NFL history to throw for 5k yards. has a 40 TD season to his name. oh, and did I mention he just turned fucking 25 years old today!!!

* - two young stud defensive tackles! say what you want about them but one almost has no peers throughout the entire league and the other is a top 10-15 talent in all of football. arguably the most talented duo of starters in the league.

* - a super solid TE. I know you hate on em but ask anybody who knows anything, Grew is solid

* - a safety who, injuries aside, is fucking good! sucks about his knees but when healthy Delmas is def in the top 25% of all starting safetys in the NFL and is a game changer for us when healthy.

* - Reiff is still to young to pigeon hole as LT for the next decade or just a good RT but his ceiling/floor is undeniable. he's worst case scenario a Bulaga clone.

* - Leshoure, Broyles, Levy, SLH, Will Young have all proven to be solid football players. Every single one of them aside from maybe Levy still has upside. Leshore is coming off an injury that even 10 years ago was a career ender and he still had a relatively decent year. in terms of his situation, I think it was pretty damn good one. the dude couldn't even practice most weeks after game days because his achilles was so sore. never once complained. dude was a warrior this year and should be much closer to 100% next. if his numbers are similar then, then you have all the right in the world to bitch.

* - Bentley and Green showed there's some good talent there. Maybe or maybe not #1 or #2 CB talent but these guys absolutely deserve spaces on this roster and can contribute right now to a 4 man rotation.

* - Ronnell and Travis Lewis, Greenwood, Whitehead, Fox the jury is still out on. May end up sticking, may not.

All the rest is either depth or gone. This is the return of our last four drafts as of today. Now lets look at the packers biggest impact players the last four drafts.

Hawyard, Cobb, Bulaga, Raji and Matthews. These are their studs. Sure Perry has a ton of upside, Burnett has been an average safety for them and they have some other guys like Sherrod, TJ Lang and Newhouse who have played but these guys aren't world beaters. Compare the list of their impact players with ours and we stack up just fine against them.

We still have guys with lots of upside just like they do. We still get some depth out of picks just like they do. And all this is without factoring in the starters we've traded for which Thompson hasn't done so he's had a lot more darts to throw and has, imo, had less to show for with those picks than what Mayhew has for the trades he's made.

Why is any of this so hard for you to understand? As much as you want Mayhew to have been a failure he hasn't. His numbers have been at least average in pretty much any area you want to measure him vs an average NFL GM's and above average in most categories over the small sample size of only 4 seasons and 20 draft picks. It's just a shame that owners, pundits, and most fans don't realize how small of a sample 4 years and/or 20 picks is and that expecting this size of a sample to be even an semi good indicator of a NFL GM's true acumen at drafting is fucking retarded. The standard deviation alone means you could literally lay out 7 hats and put the names of all of Mel Kipers rankings per round in each hat, pull randomly and have better success than any GM in the entire fucking league if you were on the high side of variance over the span of a 20 pick sample size.
 
hughes, add the 6 starters he's acquired via trade with draft picks to the 8 starters he's drafted and he's way above average and right on par with ted thompson, inarguably one of the best GM's in the league.

now lets look at the actual talent

* - a 25 year old franchise QB. one of 3 guys in NFL history to throw for 5k yards. has a 40 TD season to his name. oh, and did I mention he just turned fucking 25 years old today!!!

* - two young stud defensive tackles! say what you want about them but one almost has no peers throughout the entire league and the other is a top 10-15 talent in all of football. arguably the most talented duo of starters in the league.

* - a super solid TE. I know you hate on em but ask anybody who knows anything, Grew is solid

* - a safety who, injuries aside, is fucking good! sucks about his knees but when healthy Delmas is def in the top 25% of all starting safetys in the NFL and is a game changer for us when healthy.

* - Reiff is still to young to pigeon hole as LT for the next decade or just a good RT but his ceiling/floor is undeniable. he's worst case scenario a Bulaga clone.

* - Leshoure, Broyles, Levy, SLH, Will Young have all proven to be solid football players. Every single one of them aside from maybe Levy still has upside. Leshore is coming off an injury that even 10 years ago was a career ender and he still had a relatively decent year. in terms of his situation, I think it was pretty damn good one. the dude couldn't even practice most weeks after game days because his achilles was so sore. never once complained. dude was a warrior this year and should be much closer to 100% next. if his numbers are similar then, then you have all the right in the world to bitch.

* - Bentley and Green showed there's some good talent there. Maybe or maybe not #1 or #2 CB talent but these guys absolutely deserve spaces on this roster and can contribute right now to a 4 man rotation.

* - Ronnell and Travis Lewis, Greenwood, Whitehead, Fox the jury is still out on. May end up sticking, may not.

All the rest is either depth or gone. This is the return of our last four drafts as of today. Now lets look at the packers biggest impact players the last four drafts.

Hawyard, Cobb, Bulaga, Raji and Matthews. These are their studs. Sure Perry has a ton of upside, Burnett has been an average safety for them and they have some other guys like Sherrod, TJ Lang and Newhouse who have played but these guys aren't world beaters. Compare the list of their impact players with ours and we stack up just fine against them.

We still have guys with lots of upside just like they do. We still get some depth out of picks just like they do. And all this is without factoring in the starters we've traded for which Thompson hasn't done so he's had a lot more darts to throw and has, imo, had less to show for with those picks than what Mayhew has for the trades he's made.

Why is any of this so hard for you to understand? As much as you want Mayhew to have been a failure he hasn't. His numbers have been at least average in pretty much any area you want to measure him vs an average NFL GM's and above average in most categories over the small sample size of only 4 seasons and 20 draft picks. It's just a shame that owners, pundits, and most fans don't realize how small of a sample 4 years and/or 20 picks is and that expecting this size of a sample to be even an semi good indicator of a NFL GM's true acumen at drafting is fucking retarded. The standard deviation alone means you could literally lay out 7 hats and put the names of all of Mel Kipers rankings per round in each hat, pull randomly and have better success than any GM in the entire fucking league if you were on the high side of variance over the span of a 20 pick sample size.

I actually do think i could pull names out of a hat and get more production from the picks that mayhew drafted lol.

I dont really understand how you can argue all these points for him and not see the big picture. Nothing hes done has actually worked. Were 4-12. We have no defense. We still have a long ways to go on offense. We have 0 special teams. The worst punter in the league. We had guys the likes of Wendling and Durham starting for us this year. We keep trading our future away for crap like Thomas and Whitehead. If it looked like we were turning the corner from all these moves you listed than id be singing a different tune.....but with the way it looks now.....were asking a guy that in 4 years hasnt been able to fill many holes to fill 8 holes on defense and 4 more on offense in 1 off season LMAO! It looks bleak to say the least.

Admitingly, i tend to paint a picture of despair when talking about the lions....but for me its for good reason. Pointing out we have a young QB doesnt mean much to me when hes fading off his back foot and winging it to no one cause we cant protect him and no one other than calvin johnson can get open. Or saying "leshoure is a solid player" when he averages 3.6 ypc. Or saying Broyles will be good someday. In contrast to your belief i think 4 years is ages in the NFL. teams have turned it around in 1.....it happens every year. The way i see it is the same way i view taking my taxes to H&R Block.....i always expect the worst....then BAM!....obama gives me 3k and im happy :D When and if the lions ever win.....ill be very very happy.
 
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I actually do think i could pull names out of a hat and get more production from the picks that mayhew drafted lol.

Of course you do and you should because its an absolute reality.

The fact that Millen's draft record was as bad as it was is a true testimate at how far off his value rankings were and the he was constantly drafting guys two rounds ahead of their value. A GM could literally dividing the prospects up from best to worst in 7 groups of 32 and pull one at random from each group and assuming his initial value breakdowns were solid, you wouldn't be able to realize he was doing anything differently from any other GM for like 10 years. It's just the nature of the beast when overall success is ~25%.

I dont really understand how you can argue all these points for him and not see the big picture.

Funny, I think its you who doesn't see the big picture and just focuses on the results of now.

Nothing hes done has actually worked. Were 4-12.

Disagree and you're being results oriented in a situation where there's soo much variance.

We have no defense. We still have a long ways to go on offense.

Disagree.

We have 0 special teams. The worst punter in the league.

Kinda got me here but that's, imo, just form the lack of depth we have because it was a rebuild from scratch. Have to patch up the gaping wounds and acquire starters before you can worry about the scratches and scrapes that are depth.

We had guys the likes of Wendling and Durham starting for us this year.

Shit happens! The link you provided above says the packers have had an undrafted players start for them at virtually every position.

We keep trading our future away for crap like Thomas and Whitehead.

Thomas will be just fine and you have no clue what Whitehead will become, nobody does.

If it looked like we were turning the corner from all these moves you listed than id be singing a different tune.....but with the way it looks now.....were asking a guy that in 4 years hasnt been able to fill many holes to fill 8 holes on defense and 4 more on offense in 1 off season LMAO! It looks bleak to say the least.

I also disagree with the 8 holes on defense and 4 on offense. We will resign some of our FA's and promote a couple people. There will be like a total of 6 or 7 new starters on the entire roster next year that weren't here this past season, imo.

I gotta do some running around but good chatting with you. Try to pick it up later if necessary :cheers:
 
Disagree and you are being results oriented.

I guess this where you and I differ from the rest Hughes. We actually want our team to produce rather than have the ability to produce if x amount of things fall in our favour.
 
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it has nothing to do with having x amount of things happen, cheeno. its merely evaluating the situation you put yourself in, not the result. the result means virtually nothing when actually grading success. there are simply too many uncontrollable variables involved for the results to matter.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variance

I don't know why I bother trying to explain how modern age front offices evaluate success. if you guys want to continue on with that back in the day gut analysis and "feel" for how things actually work and put blinders on to the science and game theory of operating in the NFL all you're doing is opening yourself up to bias, revisionist history, and no real actual understanding of why things go wrong other than years and years of trial and error.
 
I will try to put the above in a simple to understand way.

if I take a standard package of playing cards, put up my $50 against your $50 (i.e. 1 to 1 odds) that you can shuffle the cards all you want and that I have to pull the 6 of diamonds out of the deck at random, face down. the odds of me actually doing this is ~2%. so 98% of the time you will win my $50 and 2% you will lose your $50. if we did this a million times your expected value for every attempt we do this is around $48 dollars! great spot for you to take this bet right?

fast forward. . . we make the bet, I pull the 6 of diamonds and you lose $50.

well the way you and hughes are looking at this is basically like saying cheeno made a bad bet. the result is you lost $50 and I'm up $50, it had to be a bad decision because the result is negative for you. in actuality the result is irrelevant in the grand scheme. you put yourself in a situation where you should make $48 dollars on average but random variance was simply not on your side this time. this happens! suck it up, accept there are things in life outside of your control and remember it was a good decision to pull the trigger on the bet.

this same decision applies to virtually all games that are non zero sum. you can't be focused on the result, just how well you set yourself up to succeed.
 
Let me put this in a simple to understand way. Mayhew is the guy betting on the 6 of diamonds.
 
hahaha, that's actually really good. nice one!

in reality, though, all forms of measurement and statistical models show him to be either average or above average in terms of bench marks for success. this is provable in not only his success rate on starters per draft pick (slightly above average) but in terms of starters acquired in terms of investment (well above average).

now tbh with you I'm not even saying the guy is great at what he does. imo the jury is still out on that and the truth is he could be a total fucktard for all I know because I've never met the guy. I'm just saying based on the body of work and the sample sizes we have in front of us today, based on all things we can actually quantify he's been fine and the criticism is unjustified/uninformed.
 
hahaha, that's actually really good. nice one!

in reality, though, all forms of measurement and statistical models show him to be either average or above average in terms of bench marks for success. this is provable in not only his success rate on starters per draft pick (slightly above average) but in terms of starters acquired in terms of investment (well above average).

now tbh with you I'm not even saying the guy is great at what he does. imo the jury is still out on that and the truth is he could be a total fucktard for all I know because I've never met the guy. I'm just saying based on the body of work and the sample sizes we have in front of us today, based on all things we can actually quantify he's been fine and the criticism is unjustified/uninformed.

Sometimes you cant quantify everything....sometimes you just need to pick a good football player....we don't have many of those guys. BUT I can quantify a lot of Mayhews picks, READY!?:

3 concussions in 2 years
2 knee injuries in 1 year
3.6 ypc
3 WRs drafted in top 3 rounds AFTER Calvin was on the team. 2 are already off the team. 1 has no knees.
0 CBs drafted in the first 2 rounds since hes been here...weird its still a need
1 John Wendling started multiple games for us this year...w...t....f
 
Sometimes you cant quantify everything....sometimes you just need to pick a good football player....we don't have many of those guys. BUT I can quantify a lot of Mayhews picks, READY!?:

3 concussions in 2 years
2 knee injuries in 1 year
3.6 ypc
3 WRs drafted in top 3 rounds AFTER Calvin was on the team. 2 are already off the team. 1 has no knees.
0 CBs drafted in the first 2 rounds since hes been here...weird its still a need
1 John Wendling started multiple games for us this year...w...t....f

Modern day front offices don't measure success based on results. That's why all the Wallstreet execs got their bonuses Hughes. Those guys had the statistical potential to be good. Forget the fact that that statistic was 1 in a million, but there still was a chance!
 
Modern day front offices don't measure success based on results. That's why all the Wallstreet execs got their bonuses Hughes. Those guys had the statistical potential to be good. Forget the fact that that statistic was 1 in a million, but there still was a chance!

I didn't think youtube gave statistics...I thought that's where Schwartz did his recruiting.
 
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