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Week 2 Score Prediction Thread - vs. Texas

Michchamp

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 4, 2011
Messages
34,010
Saturday, September 7, 2024 @ NOON ET ON FOX, MICHIGAN HOSTS TEXAS.

Line: Texas -7.5 (opened -6.5); o/u 49.5 (current)
Sagarin: Texas by 6.3 pts.

Feels like it's been a long time since we were dogs this bad... indeed, NCAAF Football odds says this is the first time we're an underdog since November 2021.

Game: Second all-time meeting between these schools. Texas won the 1st, the 2004 Rose Bowl, 38-37, with Vince Young leading a 47 yard drive to get the Longhorns in field position for the game-winning kick. Seems like a lifetime ago now... Vince Young ran for 4 TDs and threw for another. Anyone complaining about Michigan's defense that day should've admitted "I don't know ball" and shut up for good the next year, when Vince Young did the same thing to USC's defense to clinch the '05 National Championship. Vince Young was essentially unstoppable in college.

Scheduling? Also, anyone complaining about Michigan's strength of schedule last year, should come out and punch themselves in the eye really hard, especially if their own team plays a complete joke of a schedule this year (OSU fans, looking at you here).

About our Opponent
Both programs have undergone major changes since that fateful day, January 1, 2005. Texas managed to hold themselves together a little better in the intervening 20 years, although there are some surprising similarities there. Mack Brown lasted longer than Lloyd Carr (he's 6 years younger), and made another run in the late 00's with Colt McCoy as his QB. Following several lousy, but not that bad years (last 3 records were 8-5, 9-4, and 8-5) Brown resigned from Texas.

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(cursed image)
The Longhorns turned to a hot coaching commodity from the Big East (sound familiar?) hiring Charlie Strong from Louisville. he had three straight losing seasons at UT before being fired.

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The Longhorns then turned to their own "Brady Hoke" at this time, former OSU OC and then-current HC at Mid-Major UH, Tom Herman, who would kiss all his players before each game, and tell them he loved them and would never leave them, before immediately dumping them before their bowl game to coach Texas.

To be fair to Brady, he was not as much of a D-BAG as Tom Herman, in that regard...

Herman did a little better on the actual football field there than Hoke did at Michigan, but still not good enough for the big money guys writing checks for the program, so the Longhorns fired him and hired newly sober Steve Sarkisian.

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Sark, a Californian, played football for BYU despite not being Mormon (he's an Armenian & Irish Catholic), and his coaching career has had a lot of ups and downs (fired from USC for drunkeness, given a second chance at Bama, fired by the Atlanta Falcons for lousy performance, and a second stint at Bama that redeemed him). The Longhorns have improved every year with Sark on the sideline, but its only been three (3) years.

Along with the history of alcoholism, Sark seems to have a tenuous grip on self control... he was on camera going bonkers at a lowly event staffer prior to an Alamo Bowl "GET YOUR FUCKING HAND OFF ME"


Hopefully we get more of that next Saturday, and less "happy Sark".

UT History
Founded 1883 - Flagship of the "UT System". True to form, despite being an independent country from 1836 to 1845, and a US state from 1845, Texas didn't really prioritize things like "education" ... Things like... "preserving slavery" were higher on their list, so their flagship state university didn't come along until much later than Michigan's. compare and contrast that with UM being founded in 1817, twenty years before Michigan became a state.

Speaking of slavery, funny how despite it officially ending in 1865, UT didn't admit an African American student until 1956, and the school facilities were segregated for another 9 years until 1965. yikes. But that didn't mean anything and wasn't "racist," or something!

Other UT history:
- in 1966, a student & former marine barricaded himself in their clock tower and murdered 17 people, wounding 31 more. One of the first truly horrific mass shootings that sadly have become all too common here. At the time, they probably weren't sure whether to give him a medal or kick him out of school for that (APD had already shot him dead though)

- In 1999, they put a statue of Martin Luther King Jr. on campus, but it was vandalized repeatedly by Texans

Despite all that... it's still the best university in Texas, and probably the least racist one, among the major state and private schools there. Which tells you most of what you need to know about the place.

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Their mascot is Bevo the Longhorn, and they also have a replica Civil War cannon they like to shoot at home games, to celebrate their racist history of committing armed treason against the United States to preserve the practice of slavery, and getting absolutley CURB STOMPED in that war.

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Famous Alumni
unlike crappy Fresno State, unsurprisingly UT has some pretty famous alums. UT's alumni list was fun to read.


Sen. Lloyd Bentsen (Senator, you are NO Jack Kennedy)

Economist James K. Galbraith (son of famous economist John Kenneth Galbraith)!!!

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Former Exxon Mobil CEO and Trump's 1st Sec. of State Rex Tillerson! Seems like ages ago he was in that role.

Dell Computer founder Michael Dell

Sports
Tom Landry
Roger Clemens

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Kevin Durant

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Mary Lou Retten

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Neil deGrasse Tyson

Actors and Actresses
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Actress, Former Playboy Playmate (and reason the safety bar on the back of semi trailers is called a "Mansfield Bar") - Jayne Mansfield!!

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Janis Joplin (briefly attended)

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Superfan Matthew McConaughey (all right... all right... all right...)

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Owen Wilson and writer/director Wes Anderson

Okay, now about their football team...
Their offense is fairly veteran. Lead by 3rd year QB (and OSU transfer) Quinn Ewers, they returned almost their entire offensive line, all Texas boys, and all with multiple starts over the years, except their RT, who only has one career start there. Ewers has been good, but he DID throw a drive killing pick against CSU last week.

Backing up Ewers is... a Manning. Arch Manning is Peyton's and Eli's nephew. His father, Cooper, is Archie Manning's oldest son, who, despite being a decent football player himself, had his career cut prematurely before ever seeing the field for Ole' Miss because of a spinal/nerve condition. He got some decent PT in their blowout of CSU, throwing for a TD and diving for another.

The only place they lost notable production on offense from last year is at WR, and they brought in a bunch of big $$$ transfers there, including one kid from Bama (Isaiah Bond)

Their defense is a little less veteran, with four transfers among their starters, and three sophomores.

ON PAPER, and mostly on the field, Texas is a really really good team, loaded with talent, and seemingly experienced enough to beat anyone in the country.

do we have a chance?

[musical interlude]


Their strength (offense) is matched against our strength (defense), and assuming we can keep them in check and make Ewers make mistakes, the only question is whether our offense can make them pay & score points. I don't know.

I'm still not sold on Texas being as good as advertised. Having lived among these people for a few years now, I can say the only thing a Texas likes better than easy money is bragging about himself. And he doesn't hate anything more than hard work, and a lack of publicity. If we can keep them in a low scoring grind of a football game, it might get ugly for them.

They were pretty lucky last year; yeah they beat Bama in Tuscaloosa, but that game could've gone the other way with a bad bounce or two. They struggled to beat some mediocre teams (TCU, UH), KState took them to OT, and of course lost to a not-that-great Oklahoma team, and lost a dogfight with UW in the Sugar Bowl. I don't know why, but I'm cautiously optimistic. I don't think their coaching staff is that great. Not sold on Sarkisian.

SO go ahead and make your picks, and post some analysis if you so choose, but as always, leave the woofing and barking for other threads!
 
I'll take Texas to win and Michigan to cover the spread. Final score 34-28.
 
Great summary Champ! Man, I don't know on this one. Texas didn't look that great vs Colorado State, CS was able to move the ball on the ground against the UT defense, but not well enough to score any points. The CS defense was terrible, got no pressure on the UT QB on passes. FS is a better team that CS, so Michigan had a better test in their first game than UT did. Hopefully, UT is overconfident and buying into their hype. Michigan D has got to keep the pressure on the UT QB, Ewers, and stay on the receivers. Praying that the Michigan Oline has improved over the FS game. The team is going to need some help from the crowd in the Big House, too.

Michigan 33, UT 27.
 
Michigan 26 Texas 25.

I'll never pick against Michigan, and I'll always pick these odd scores that involve Canadian football rules to attain.

Michigan wins when a last second field goal attempt goes through the end zone.

I actually think it would be pretty cool for college football to embrace some Canadian football rules.
 
My gut is telling me this game could be similar to 2019 ND or 2021 OSU... a highly ranked team comes in and gets hammered into submission by a Michigan team everyone had written off.

My only hangup on that is whether we have an offense that can make them pay. I didn't get to see as much of the 2nd half of our game as I wanted to, but all the recaps I've read said that after Crippen came in at C, the OL played much better. And our WRs needed a wake up call. They can't give up on deep routes like that. If we can pound the ball on the ground and move the chains, I think we win this running away.

Fresno St. was a better test for us than CSU was for Texas.

UM... 34
UT..... 20
 
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Last week sucked. We all know it. I watched the game 3 times this week and i keep seeing things that make me wonder if last week was a preseason game. The substitutions and usage of players was crazy. Will johnson didn't play for 2 or 3 series and coach said it's their rotation. Bullshit. They used the game as a warmup and get different players experience in different positions.

They did it on both lines and at LB too. I think they were thinking they're good enough to coast by Fresno state and they were.

The effort last week was a C. It makes me think they spent most of last week preparing for texas and hoped their talent was enough for a lesser effort. Not even mentioning how conservative the play calling was.

I think we come out charged up and get an early lead and hold texas under 20.


34 - 18 Michigan. Texas gets a late TD and 2 pt conversion to get it within a 2 score game.

Bonus points prediction: after the game, we get no credit for the win. The media and fans will say texas lost too much to the nfl and we beat a mid SEC team. And, of course, we'll start hearing how USC will come in and beat the hell out of us
 
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