Week 5 Score Prediction Thread - Brown Jug Game - vs. Minnesota

[Michchamp]

This Saturday, September 28, 2024 @ Noon ET ON Fox, #12 MICHIGAN hosts MINNESOTA in ANN ARBOR.

Line: UM -9; o/u: 36.5
Sagarin Predictor: 13 point Michigan win

About Our Opponent and the Brown Jug:
Refer to last year's write-up if you're curious. The series record is now 77-25-3 in favor of Michigan.

For fun, watch this short video of John Navarre scoring a TD in the 2003 game, the 100th Anniversary of the original Brown Jug Game


This year's Minnesota team.

The Golden Gophers are currently 2-2 (0-1), having played all four games at home, i.e. this Saturday is their first road game.

They started the season with a pathetic loss to North Carolina, which just gave up 70 pts to a Sun Belt team. The Big Ten WOULD HAVE been undefeated in Week 1, but for Minnesota. After that they blew out Rhode Island and Nevada, before getting beaten pretty soundly by Iowa, 31-14. They gave up 272 rushing yards to Iowa!!! Cade only threw 19 times for 11 completions and 62 yards.

Minnesota might be the worst team in the conference, but we'll need to see NW and UCLA play a couple more to be sure. Sagarin ranks them 58th, with a pathetic 100th ranked SOS. What's our SOS you may ask? He has ours ranked as the 6th toughest in the country so far.

Stats Watch!
As noted above, we've played a pretty tough SOS so far, albeit early in the season. But with most teams having played 3 games and at least one conference game, there's some substance to the Sagarin rankings; we'd be favored in them against every current remaining opponent, except Oregon and OSU, which is good.

There's not too much to get excited about... yet. You could say that's because we're still finding our identity as a team.

• We're only 31st in team rushing yards/game (although Mullings is now 12th in the nation in rushing yards).
• We're tied for a pathetic 107th in turnover margin
• Fewest penalties per game isn't too bad (t-23rd), but a far cry from last season when we were 1st;
• We're 54th in penalty yards/game
• We're a PUTRID 121st in Team Passing Efficiency, and I don't even want to look up passing yards/game or any other passing stats...
• Considering our new look offense, probably the most important statistic for this week is Minnesota's Rushing Defense: which isn't too bad, although consider their schedule strength (56th; allowing 123 ypg); our rush defense is: 11th (76.5 ypg)
• Our Team PED is lousy (57th), but theirs is actually really good (currently ranked 2nd!) but it doesn't matter because we're not going to pass the ball Saturday...

The Texas offense really did a number on our stats.

Roster/injury updates:
Moore has said Orji will start again vs. Minnesota. Can't really argue with that.
Will Johnson should be good to go, based on what I'm reading; Colston Loveland may still be out, but is "trending in the right direction"

So go ahead and make your picks, and post some analysis if you so choose, but as always leave the woofing and barking for other threads!!!

 

[Michchamp]

UMich...42
Minn......13

 

[Mitchrapp]

27-9 Michigan

 

[b311j]

][V][ 27
Minny 13

 

[rumseyhouse77]

Minny seems to be a mostly pass oriented team. They give up a lot of yards on the ground. This will fit Michigan's rush oriented offense. Michigan runs over the Mighty Golden Gophers.

Michigan 33
Minny 14

 

[bphillips4gg]

28-10 Michigan.

 

[Michigandad1]

Mich - 37

Minn - 6