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Michchamp
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When: Saturday, November 2, 2024 @ 3:30 PM ET
Where: Ann Arbor, Michigan ON on CBS
What: Unranked Michigan hosts the #1 team in the nation, Oregon.
Line: currently Oregon -14.5 o/u: 45
Sagarin: ~10 pt. Oregon win
We're 3-2 all-time against Oregon, but they've won the last two.
They had that upset win in Oregon in 2003, 31-27; we were #3 in the country at the time and (from what I remember) really blew a winnable game; I seem to recall some special teams gaffes, and Navarre throwing a pick or two. Then in 2007, faced a talented Oregon team while we were in disarray following the loss to Appalachian State, and got clobbered 39-7 at home. Henne got hurt early, they scored quickly, our drives stalled, and before we knew it, we were down 32-7 at the half. It was ugly and I remember it well. That Oregon team looked unbeatable, but stumbled at home against Cal after starting 4-0 with 4 blowout wins, and then finished 9-4 after Dennis Dixon got hurt halfway thru the season. They were beatable and not as good as they seemed against us.
#1 Games
We have a not-great history against #1s... we're 3-16-1 all-time. but most teams don't have a great record against "the best team in the country at the moment" for obvious reasons. None of our #1 wins were on the road (0-9). We're 3-7-1 at home.
I can't find the winning % vs. #1 teams, but 3 wins vs. #1's puts us at 11th in the country (this list of Top 10s starts with teams tied for 10th, with 4 wins vs. #1s). The best? Alabama has 11 wins vs. #1's. Purdue, interestling enough is tied with USC for 3rd with 7.
our last win against a #1 was all the way back in September 1984, when we beat #1 Miami 22-14. Last year, we were #1 going into the playoffs; OSU was #2 when we played them. #1 Georgia dropped below us after losing to Alabama in the SEC championship. I thought the last time we played a #1 was 2019 OSU, but MGOBlue has it as 2006 OSU. 2013 Alabama was #2 when we played.
About Our Opponent
The University of Oregon, or more accurately, "Nike University"... from their own wikipedia page:
Prior to becoming Nike U? Confusingly, the Oregon State Legislature established the university in 1872 and named it Oregon State University. Later on there were proposals to merge that Oregon State University, with Oregon State College, which eventually became Oregon State University, and they renamed the first one "University of Oregon."
You might think of Oregon as a more progressive place, full of coffee shops, progressive kids, etc., but the state, and the University really was - and still largely is - a backwoods state full of garbage people. Oregon was never a very populous state; even today it only ranks 27th among states, and outside of Portland, there's not much there, except white supremacist nutjobs. Indeed, their classics department was named for the guy who once ran it in the 1930s. He was #3 in the Eugene KKK, and successfully kept even Catholic faculty out of the university during his tenure there... they didn't remove his name until 2016!
The University was also plagued throughout its history by budget issues. I suppose it made it that much more susceptible to being taken over by a wealthy alum like Phil Knight. UO athletics was largely terrible, except for its track and field program under legendary coach Bill Bowerman, who coached his squads to 4 NCAA titles there. Phil Knight was a miler on the team, and ran for Bowerman.
Really, other than track and field, the only good & notable thing that happened at Oregon was that...
Famous Alumni
Lee Bollinger! UM president 1996-2002!
Writers Chuck Palahniuk (Fight Club)
and Ken Kesey (One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest, among others)
Illinois Senator Paul Simon!
Oregon Senator Ron Wyden!
Heisman Trophy Winner Marcus Mariota
What about Oregon Football?
The lack of money and people showed when it came to football success... prior to 2000, Oregon had only won six (6) conference championships going back to the 1890's! They really only took off as a program after Phil Knight started DUMPING money on them.
In a country that decides who lives and dies by the amount of dollars they have, and judges their worth as a person by the size of their bank account, dumping money turns out to be a winning strategy! It gets you wins: Since 2000, Oregon has won eight (8) Pac 10/12 championships...
It also gets you the best looking cheerleaders in college football easily...
despite the money, they still have not won a national championship. They've only qualified for the playoffs once (1): in 2014, beating FSU in a semifinal, and losing to OSU in the final. Though they made the CFB final in the 2010 season, under Chip Kelly, losing to Auburn, a game both teams had to vacate because of recruiting violations, LOL.
This year, they have the inside track, with the current #1 rank and favorable schedule remaining, they're in the driver's seat, at least until they get into the playoffs. After us, they have a road game in mid November in Madison, Wisconsin. other than that, looks like two easy wins at home (Washington and Maryland).
Stats Watch!
..........................................................UM................ UO
Total Defense:.......38th (329.5ypg) 12th(297ypg)
Rush D:........................... 15th(101ypg) ...41st (123.5ypg)
Team PED:............................ 61st................... 9th
Total Offense:.......... 124th (303ypg).. 11th(467ypg)
Rush Off:....................... 52nd (172.6ypg) 61st (167ypg)
Team PEO:............................. 121st................. 8th
Penalties/Game:........ 8th(4.38/g).... 28th(5.12/g)
Turnover Margin: ..........110th (-.75).... 40th (+.38)
I dug deeper into other stats, but even where we're ahead, they're not far behind. They don't seem to have any weaknesses... don't allow a lot of sacks, or have negative plays. We however, have a lousy offense, and a pass defense that struggles to cover just about everybody.
Their only question mark maybe came against Boise St. But Boise is 6-1, and decent-ish. Oregon has pretty much blown everyone else out, and most of their games aren't close when it counts. They lead MSU 31-0 before State scored a couple times late in the 4th. Against Illinois, it was 35-3 at the half. When they played, I feel like OSU really blew that game... they had 2 turnovers to OU's 0, and 8 penalties against 3. and that was all prior to their idiotic clock management late.
But again, is Oregon good enough to win on the road like that?
I just don't think our offense can sustain drives like we need to keep their offense off the field, and win a game like this. But I'm hoping for a miracle. Maybe we can harass Gabriel into mistakes and score on short fields. Gotta keep them from scoring quickly.
They have to cover three time zones... although maybe a 3:30 Kick is not too bad for a West Coast team. Weather at kick is currently predicted to be cool, but not too cold. Partly cloudy and in the low 50's at kickoff.
Injuries?
I'll update later... we really need Will Johnson back.
So go ahead and make your picks and post some analysis if you choose, but as always leave the woofing and barking for other threads!
Where: Ann Arbor, Michigan ON on CBS
What: Unranked Michigan hosts the #1 team in the nation, Oregon.
Line: currently Oregon -14.5 o/u: 45
Sagarin: ~10 pt. Oregon win
We're 3-2 all-time against Oregon, but they've won the last two.
They had that upset win in Oregon in 2003, 31-27; we were #3 in the country at the time and (from what I remember) really blew a winnable game; I seem to recall some special teams gaffes, and Navarre throwing a pick or two. Then in 2007, faced a talented Oregon team while we were in disarray following the loss to Appalachian State, and got clobbered 39-7 at home. Henne got hurt early, they scored quickly, our drives stalled, and before we knew it, we were down 32-7 at the half. It was ugly and I remember it well. That Oregon team looked unbeatable, but stumbled at home against Cal after starting 4-0 with 4 blowout wins, and then finished 9-4 after Dennis Dixon got hurt halfway thru the season. They were beatable and not as good as they seemed against us.
#1 Games
We have a not-great history against #1s... we're 3-16-1 all-time. but most teams don't have a great record against "the best team in the country at the moment" for obvious reasons. None of our #1 wins were on the road (0-9). We're 3-7-1 at home.
I can't find the winning % vs. #1 teams, but 3 wins vs. #1's puts us at 11th in the country (this list of Top 10s starts with teams tied for 10th, with 4 wins vs. #1s). The best? Alabama has 11 wins vs. #1's. Purdue, interestling enough is tied with USC for 3rd with 7.
our last win against a #1 was all the way back in September 1984, when we beat #1 Miami 22-14. Last year, we were #1 going into the playoffs; OSU was #2 when we played them. #1 Georgia dropped below us after losing to Alabama in the SEC championship. I thought the last time we played a #1 was 2019 OSU, but MGOBlue has it as 2006 OSU. 2013 Alabama was #2 when we played.
About Our Opponent
The University of Oregon, or more accurately, "Nike University"... from their own wikipedia page:
The university has a long and complex relationship with Nike, Inc., and the firm's co-founder Phil Knight. As a consequence of state higher-education disinvestment starting in the 1990s, UO has embraced a "University of Nike" image. Fueled by large investments in athletic infrastructure, this trend has accelerated in recent years. Knight, an alumnus, has advocated for both athletic prominence and increased privatisation of the university, and has donated over $1 billion to UO since the late-1980s, much of it going towards athletics. The school's "O" logo was designed by Nike in 1998 and sports facility projects on campus typically involve both Knight and Nike.
Prior to becoming Nike U? Confusingly, the Oregon State Legislature established the university in 1872 and named it Oregon State University. Later on there were proposals to merge that Oregon State University, with Oregon State College, which eventually became Oregon State University, and they renamed the first one "University of Oregon."
You might think of Oregon as a more progressive place, full of coffee shops, progressive kids, etc., but the state, and the University really was - and still largely is - a backwoods state full of garbage people. Oregon was never a very populous state; even today it only ranks 27th among states, and outside of Portland, there's not much there, except white supremacist nutjobs. Indeed, their classics department was named for the guy who once ran it in the 1930s. He was #3 in the Eugene KKK, and successfully kept even Catholic faculty out of the university during his tenure there... they didn't remove his name until 2016!
The University was also plagued throughout its history by budget issues. I suppose it made it that much more susceptible to being taken over by a wealthy alum like Phil Knight. UO athletics was largely terrible, except for its track and field program under legendary coach Bill Bowerman, who coached his squads to 4 NCAA titles there. Phil Knight was a miler on the team, and ran for Bowerman.
Really, other than track and field, the only good & notable thing that happened at Oregon was that...
... Animal House was filmed there in 1978!
Famous Alumni
Lee Bollinger! UM president 1996-2002!
Writers Chuck Palahniuk (Fight Club)
and Ken Kesey (One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest, among others)
Illinois Senator Paul Simon!
Oregon Senator Ron Wyden!
Heisman Trophy Winner Marcus Mariota
What about Oregon Football?
The lack of money and people showed when it came to football success... prior to 2000, Oregon had only won six (6) conference championships going back to the 1890's! They really only took off as a program after Phil Knight started DUMPING money on them.
In a country that decides who lives and dies by the amount of dollars they have, and judges their worth as a person by the size of their bank account, dumping money turns out to be a winning strategy! It gets you wins: Since 2000, Oregon has won eight (8) Pac 10/12 championships...
It also gets you the best looking cheerleaders in college football easily...
despite the money, they still have not won a national championship. They've only qualified for the playoffs once (1): in 2014, beating FSU in a semifinal, and losing to OSU in the final. Though they made the CFB final in the 2010 season, under Chip Kelly, losing to Auburn, a game both teams had to vacate because of recruiting violations, LOL.
This year, they have the inside track, with the current #1 rank and favorable schedule remaining, they're in the driver's seat, at least until they get into the playoffs. After us, they have a road game in mid November in Madison, Wisconsin. other than that, looks like two easy wins at home (Washington and Maryland).
Stats Watch!
..........................................................UM................ UO
Total Defense:.......38th (329.5ypg) 12th(297ypg)
Rush D:........................... 15th(101ypg) ...41st (123.5ypg)
Team PED:............................ 61st................... 9th
Total Offense:.......... 124th (303ypg).. 11th(467ypg)
Rush Off:....................... 52nd (172.6ypg) 61st (167ypg)
Team PEO:............................. 121st................. 8th
Penalties/Game:........ 8th(4.38/g).... 28th(5.12/g)
Turnover Margin: ..........110th (-.75).... 40th (+.38)
I dug deeper into other stats, but even where we're ahead, they're not far behind. They don't seem to have any weaknesses... don't allow a lot of sacks, or have negative plays. We however, have a lousy offense, and a pass defense that struggles to cover just about everybody.
Their only question mark maybe came against Boise St. But Boise is 6-1, and decent-ish. Oregon has pretty much blown everyone else out, and most of their games aren't close when it counts. They lead MSU 31-0 before State scored a couple times late in the 4th. Against Illinois, it was 35-3 at the half. When they played, I feel like OSU really blew that game... they had 2 turnovers to OU's 0, and 8 penalties against 3. and that was all prior to their idiotic clock management late.
But again, is Oregon good enough to win on the road like that?
I just don't think our offense can sustain drives like we need to keep their offense off the field, and win a game like this. But I'm hoping for a miracle. Maybe we can harass Gabriel into mistakes and score on short fields. Gotta keep them from scoring quickly.
They have to cover three time zones... although maybe a 3:30 Kick is not too bad for a West Coast team. Weather at kick is currently predicted to be cool, but not too cold. Partly cloudy and in the low 50's at kickoff.
Injuries?
I'll update later... we really need Will Johnson back.
So go ahead and make your picks and post some analysis if you choose, but as always leave the woofing and barking for other threads!
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