What is your best guess regarding Covid 19 deaths?

[Gulo Blue]

With all the discussion about over- and underestimates, I'm curious as to what people think the real number is. I think it adds good context to other comments regarding opening up.



As of yesterday, 5/20/20, the CDC is reporting 91,664 deaths. (As I understand it, that's the 'quick' number which includes deaths that will be revised over time. And that time might be as much as 2 years.)


My instinct regarding excess deaths is that we probably had a significant percents of deaths mischaracterized in Feb/March when the over all numbers were low and now that the numbers are higher, we're doing a better job with attributing causes - I'm going to stick pretty close to the estimate.



I'll say 95 k as of 5/20/20.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Does it really matter? The best answer is it's too high.

 

[Spartanmack]

You think deaths are slightly underreported at this time? It's impossible to say by how much but I think they're likely overreported. If we're ever able to get a reliable number, 91k as of 5/20/20 being overstated by somewhere between 10-50% wouldn't shock me.

 

[tomdalton22]

I think we (the USA) are over reporting...not by too much but probably about 5-10%. I think China and other countries have GREATLY under reported. It wouldn't surprise me if there were 10-20x more deaths in China than reported.

 

[tinselwolverine]

Why isn’t this a poll?

 

[Gulo Blue]

Why isn?t this a poll?

There are a lot of numbers people might pick.

 

[tinselwolverine]

There are a lot of numbers people might pick.

That?s why there a lot of potential poll options.

 

[Spartanmack]

you could use ranges and ask people which fit their 95% confidence interval like Ferguson's estimate of between 50 and 50k deaths from foot and mouth...

or you could reduce possible responses by asking for percentage estimates, or even more with ranges of percentages

 

[Gulo Blue]

We got like 6 responses to the last poll. Plus, people can add howevermuch context they want this way.

 

[mhughes0021]

New models suggest number of Americans dead by the end of the year will be 1 million. Couple months in and at nearly 100k already and every state looking to open back up while cases continue to increase. Ya, i see the 1 million happening. Nice job Trump!...good plan. Kick start the economy by killing off millions of people...makes sense. How can anyone possibly listen to a fool that predicted in Feb our total infections would be 0....a mere 3 months go by and youre over 1 million cases and nearly 90k deaths. Fucker should be impeached just for being a completely ignorant bonehead.

 

[Gulo Blue]

New models suggest number of Americans dead by the end of the year will be 1 million. Couple months in and at nearly 100k already and every state looking to open back up while cases continue to increase. Ya, i see the 1 million happening. Nice job Trump!...good plan. Kick start the economy by killing off millions of people...makes sense. How can anyone possibly listen to a fool that predicted in Feb our total infections would be 0....a mere 3 months go by and youre over 1 million cases and nearly 90k deaths. Fucker should be impeached just for being a completely ignorant bonehead.

What models are those? I'm hearing what sounds like reasonable talk of a possible 2nd wave, but I haven't heard any projections. And certainly none that high. IHME is around 145k with no 2nd wave. A couple stories starting to appear saying Sweden has a difficult-to-believe 7.3% anti-body rate. I'm still not sure what to make of this virus.

 

[sggatecl]

A couple stories starting to appear saying Sweden has a difficult-to-believe 7.3% anti-body rate. I'm still not sure what to make of this virus.

That would be a depressingly low number. Considering their deaths far exceed neighboring Scandinavian countries, I imagine they'd hoped for far better results when it comes to antibodies among the general population.

 

[tomdalton22]

New models suggest number of Americans dead by the end of the year will be 1 million. Couple months in and at nearly 100k already and every state looking to open back up while cases continue to increase. Ya, i see the 1 million happening. Nice job Trump!...good plan. Kick start the economy by killing off millions of people...makes sense. How can anyone possibly listen to a fool that predicted in Feb our total infections would be 0....a mere 3 months go by and youre over 1 million cases and nearly 90k deaths. Fucker should be impeached just for being a completely ignorant bonehead.

it won't hit 1 million, but people are going to die. It is a disease with no cure. I agree with opening up the economy but with caution. I went to a bar last night after golf. It was the first day it was open and surprisingly enough it wasn't busy at all. About 60% of the tables had been removed.

People just need to be careful.

 

[Gulo Blue]

it won't hit 1 million, but people are going to die. It is a disease with no cure. I agree with opening up the economy but with caution. I went to a bar last night after golf. It was the first day it was open and surprisingly enough it wasn't busy at all. About 60% of the tables had been removed.

People just need to be careful.

I think, if this wasn't political and people could be trusted to follow instructions, we could even have haircuts in a lot of places. On a county-by-county basis, if numbers are low enough - but there would have to be regular testing and maybe twice a day temperature reads of the barbers and a recording of contact info for customers (which could be destroyed later if that's an issue.)


Unless a barber is willing and able to wear scuba gear. If they can add scuba gear with their own supply of air, then let them have at it.


The problem is that the most cautious can't be expected to be the first to try reopening. I'd expect the most reckless to try first, or to say they meet the guidelines first.

 

[tinselwolverine]

I think, if this wasn't political and people could be trusted to follow instructions, we could even have haircuts in a lot of places.

Well, you still need to have hair in the places where you want it cut from.

Nothing?s gonna change about that.

 

[turok]

Over 70% of those admitted to hospitals and tested positive for CV19 did not have high temps. So using that alone as a litmus test for passing people as being clean of infection is a BAD idea.

Regardless of lockdown or not, there are going to be 10s of millions who will not resume their pre-contagion activities until an effective vaccine is developed. So the unemployment rate and business recovery will be very slow to improve, if at all in the latter case. The national supply of needles and syringes was low even before the outbreak, and it will take at least two years to restock.

Wearing a mask does not prevent becoming infected, unless it is an N95, which are still extremely scarce. That means that 10s of millions who are sociopaths won't wear a mask in public, unless obligated to by entering most private businesses. Some might practice social distancing, but they likely will only b/c they know people who were sickened and/or especially died from it.

~30% of those affected are minorities, most others who die from being infected are senior citizens, and the health challenged. So even more impetus for younger and healthy white sociopaths to oppose losing their "freedumbs".

Until (and if) all states end their lockdowns, there still will be an extra layer or CV19 spread prevention. But b/c the extra funding for unemployed will soon be ending, due to Sen Maj leader McConnell and his cohorts refusal to extend it, then highly likely that Dem governors will lift lockdowns completely by the end of next month.

If business is successful in lobbying to eliminate any liability involving CV19, then the protection burden falls on employees, clients, contractors, and customers. If so even more reason for consumers to shop exclusively online.

Civil court cases must be backlogged to the gills!! Refundable bottle returns are backed up bigtime as well, and are not predicted to ease when allowed to resume for at least 6 months. This pandemic has only been of benefit to non-violent jail and prison inmates, who are being released to serve out the rest of their sentences in house arrest.

An entirely volunteer group who are monitoring the spread of CV19 is linked below:

https://covidtracking.com/about-project

 

[tinselwolverine]

Over 70% of those admitted to hospitals and tested positive for CV19 did not have high temps. So using that alone as a litmus test for passing people as being clean of infection is a BAD idea.

Regardless of lockdown or not, there are going to be 10s of millions who will not resume their pre-contagion activities until an effective vaccine is developed. So the unemployment rate and business recovery will be very slow to improve, if at all in the latter case.

Wearing a mask does not prevent becoming infected, unless it is an N95, which are still extremely scarce. That means that 10s of millions who are sociopaths won't wear a mask in public, unless obligated to by entering most private businesses. Some might practice social distancing, but they likely will only b/c they know people who were sickened and/or especially died from it.

~30% of those affected are minorities, most others who die from being infected are senior citizens, and the health challenged. So even more impetus for younger and healthy white sociopaths to oppose losing their "freedumbs".

Until (and if) all states end their lockdowns, there still will be an extra layer or CV19 spread prevention. But b/c the extra funding for unemployed will soon be ending, due to Sen Maj leader McConnell and his cohorts refusal to extend it, then highly likely that Dem governors will lift lockdowns completely by the end of next month.

If business is successful in lobbying to eliminate any liability involving CV19, then the protection burden falls on employees, clients, contractors, and customers. If so even more reason for consumers to shop exclusively online.

Civil court cases must be backlogged to the gills!! Refundable bottle returns are backed up bigtime as well, and are not predicted to ease when allowed to resume for at least 6 months. This pandemic has only been of benefit to non-violent jail and prison inmates, who are being released to serve out the rest of their sentences in house arrest.

An entirely volunteer group who are monitoring the spread of CV19 is linked below:

https://covidtracking.com/about-project

If wearing a mask is ineffective anyway, how does that make people who don’t see the point in wearing one sociopaths?

Not really behavior fitting the definition of a sociopath; more like people who are logical, reasonable and rational.

Young healthy white people can be so precocious and entitled - how dare they be so concerned about anything as garish as freedumb? Just wait for them to get old and sick, or black - then they’ll learn.

You forgot to refer to McConnell and his cohorts as sociopaths.

 

[turok]

If wearing a mask is ineffective anyway, how does that make people who don’t see the point in wearing one sociopaths?


b/c they are worn to prevent the wearer from spreading his or her potentially coviral germs to others via coughing, sneezing, singing, or shouting.

Not really behavior fitting the definition of a sociopath; more like people who are logical, reasonable and rational.

Wrong, wearing a mask demontrates the wearer's concern for the health of others, since COVID 19 is a stealth contagion that is very often asymptomatic, and for longer than the typical flu virus that people get inoculations for each year.

Young healthy white people can be so precocious and entitled - how dare they be so concerned about anything as garish as freedumb? Just wait for them to get old and sick, or black - then they’ll learn.

I posted "younger" than seniors, not young.

Are 55 year olds still "precocious"?


You forgot to refer to McConnell and his cohorts as sociopaths.

They are the equivalent of domestic terrorists in my book.

 

[tinselwolverine]

If wearing a mask is ineffective anyway, how does that make people who don?t see the point in wearing one sociopaths?


b/c they are worn to prevent the wearer from spreading his or her potentially coviral germs to others via coughing, sneezing, singing, or shouting.

Not really behavior fitting the definition of a sociopath; more like people who are logical, reasonable and rational.

Wrong, wearing a mask demontrates the wearer's concern for the health of others, since COVID 19 is a stealth contagion that is very often asymptomatic, and for longer than the typical flu virus that people get inoculations for each year.

Young healthy white people can be so precocious and entitled - how dare they be so concerned about anything as garish as freedumb? Just wait for them to get old and sick, or black - then they?ll learn.

I posted "younger" than seniors, not young.

Are 55 year olds still "precocious"?


You forgot to refer to McConnell and his cohorts as sociopaths.


They are the equivalent of domestic terrorists in my book.

Scientists aren?t 100% in agreement on the efficacy of the masks.

538

?Demonstrating concern? is actually a form of virtue signaling - I wouldn?t say not virtue signaling makes one a sociopath.

I once heard Rachel Maddow jokingly refer to Obama as ?precocious? during his presidency- he probably wasn?t quite 55 but fairly close.

I do my mask New York protocol style - I hang it from one ear when I?m outside not near anyone and I hook it up when I go inside or get near someone.

 

[tinselwolverine]

Dr. Kelly Victory on the John Phillips Show, KABC Radio