By:
Advanced search…

Welcome to Detroit Sports Forum!

By joining our community, you'll be able to connect with fellow fans that live and breathe Detroit sports just like you!

Get Started
  • If you are no longer able to access your account since our recent switch from vBulletin to XenForo, you may need to reset your password via email. If you no longer have access to the email attached to your account, please fill out our contact form and we will assist you ASAP. Thanks for your continued support of DSF.

2012 Electoral College Thread

grandy

grandy

Senior Member
Joined
Aug 4, 2011
Messages
11,694
One place to keep track of polls and projections for the electoral vote

Feel free to add your own links and I'll toss them in here somewhere, let me know if there's any broken links

270 is the magic number

Electoral Map Projections (as of 11/4/2012)

Real Clear Politics Obama 201 - Romney 191 - Toss Up 146
Rasmussen Obama 237 - Romney 206 - Toss Up 95
NY Times Obama 243 - Romney 206 - Toss Up 89
ElectionProjection Obama 290 - Romney 248
Karl Rove Obama 221 - Romney 206 - Toss Up 111
Huffington Post Obama 277 - Romney 191 - Toss Up 70
CNN Obama 237 - Romney 206 - Toss Up 95
Wall Street Journal Obama 201 - Romney 191 - Toss Up 146
FiveThirtyEight Multiple Projections



General Consensus

Obama (201)

Safe Obama (179)
California (55)
New York (29)
Illinois (20)
New Jersey (14)
Washington (12)
Massachusetts (11)
Maryland (10)
Connecticut (7)
Hawaii (4)
Maine (4)
Rhode Island (4)
DC (3)
Delaware (3)
Vermont (3)

Leaning Obama (22)
Minnesota (10) - Obama +8 (PPP) Obama +11 (KSTP/SU) Obama +3 (MD) Romney +1 (NMB/AFF)
Oregon (7) - Obama +6 (ORE)
New Mexico (5) - Obama +9 (ABQJ)




Romney (206)

Safe Romney (180)
Texas (38)
Georgia (16)
Indiana (11)
Tennessee (11)
Missouri (10)
Alabama (9)
South Carolina (9)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (8)
Oklahoma (7)
Arkansas (6)
Kansas (6)
Mississippi (6)
Utah (6)
Nebraska (5)
West Virginia (5)
Idaho (4)
Alaska (3)
Montana (3)
North Dakota (3)
South Dakota (3)
Wyoming (3)

Leaning Romney (26)
North Carolina (15) - Romney +5 (SU) Romney +6 (R) Romney +4 (G) Tie (PPP)
Arizona (11) - Romney +7 (PPP)





Swing States/Toss Ups (131)
Florida (29) - Romney +5 (FTU/IA) Romney +6 (TBT/MH) Obama +2 (CBS/NYT/Q) Romney +1 (WAA) Tie (SU) Tie (G) Romney +2 (CNN/ORC) Romney +2 (R) Obama +1 (PPP)
Pennsylvania (20) - Obama +3 (G) Obama +3 (MC) Tie (TR/SQH) Obama +6 (PPP) Obama +4 (FM) Obama +5 (R) Obama +6 (PI)
Ohio (18) - Obama +2 (CD) Obama +6 (NBC/WSJ/MAR) Obama +4 (WAA) Obama +1 (OP/UofC) Obama +5 (CBS/NYT/Q) Obama +5 (SU) Obama +2 (G) Obama +5 (PPP) Obama +5 (TIME) Obama +2 (PS) Obama +3 (CNN/ORC) Obama +2 (ARG) Tie (R)
Michigan (16) - Obama +5 (MR) Romney +1 (F/B) Obama +6 (PPP) Obama +5 (R) Obama +6 (EPIC-MRA) Obama +3 (DN)
Virginia (13) - Obama +4 (PPP) Obama +1 (NBC/WSJ/MAR) Obama +1 (WAA) Romney +5 (RC) Obama +2 (CBS/NYT/Q) Obama +4 (WP) Romney +2 (R) Romney +2 (FOX) Tie (PS) Tie (G)
Wisconsin (10) - Obama +3 (PPP) Obama +7 (WAA) Obama +9 (WPR/StN) Obama +3 (NBC/WSJ/MAR) Obama +8 (MU) Tie (R)
Colorado (9) - Obama +2 (DP/SU) Obama +2 (CNN/ORC) Romney +3 (R) Obama +3 (WAA) Romney +1 (ARG) Obama +1 (PS) Obama +6 (PPP) Tie (NBC/WSJ/MAR)
Iowa (6) - Romney +1 (ARG) Obama +2 (PPP) Obama +5 (DMR) Obama +6 (NBC/WSJ/MAR) Romney +1 (UofI) Obama +2 (WAA) Obama +4 (G)
Nevada (6) - Obama +4 (LVRJ/SU) Obama +1 (G) Obama +4 (NBC/WSJ/MAR) Obama +2 (R) Obama +4 (PPP)
New Hampshire (4) - Tie (ARG) Obama +2 (WMUR/UNH) Obama +2 (G) Obama +2 (NBC/WSJ/MAR) Obama +2 (PPP) Obama +2 (R) Obama +4 (NEC)








Poll Key
ABQJ = Albuquerque Journal
AFF = American Future Fund
ARG = American Research Group
BRC = Behavior Research Center
CBS = CBS
CD = Columbus Dispatch
CIV = Civitas
CNN = CNN
DMR = Des Moines Register
DN = Detroit News
DP = Denver Post
EPIC-MRA = EPIC-MRA
F/B = Foster/Baydoun
FM = Franklin & Marshall
FOX = FOX News
FTU = Florida Times Union
G = Gravis
HP = High Point
IA = Insider Advantage
KSNV = Las Vegas News Channel
KSTP = Minnesota Local News
LVRJ = Las Vegas Review Journal
MAR = Marist
MC = Morning Call
MD = Mason-Dixon
MH = Miami Herald
MHU = Mercyhurst University
MR = Mitchell Research
MRG = Marketing Resource Group
MU = Marquette University
NBC = NBC
NEC = New England College
NMB = NMB Research
NYT = NY Times
OP = Ohio Poll
ORC = Opinion Research
ORE = Oregonian
PI = Philadelphia Inquirer
PPP = Public Policy Polling
POS = Public Opinion Strategies
PS = Purple Strategies
Q = Quinnipiac
R = Rasmussen
RAoN = Retail Association of Nevada
RC = Roanoke College
SI = Siena
SQH = Susquehanna
ST = Star Tribune
StN = St. Norbert
SU = SurveyUSA
SUF = Suffolk
TBT = Tampa Bay Times
TIME = Time Magazine
TIR = The Iowa Republican
TR = Tribune Review
UNF = University of North Florida
UNH = University of New Hampshire
UofC = University of Cincinnati
UofD = University of Denver
UofI = University of Iowa
WAA = WeAskAmerica
WMUR = NH Local News
WP = Washington Post
WPR = Wisconsin Public Radio
WSJ = Wall Street Journal
WWBT = Local Virginia NBC

Old = Poll is one or more weeks old
 
Last edited:
I saw a couple polls that had Michigan firmly for Obama.

Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Ohio will also move from toss-ups to leaning Obama.

the obama camp is confident they'll land North Carolina again too.
 
from Rasmussen(9/18):

In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 47% of the vote and the president is supported by 46%. Three percent (3%) are not sure, and four percent (4%) are undecided.

In 2008, Obama won these states by a combined margin of 53% to 46%, virtually identical to his national margin.

The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.
 
michchamp said:
I saw a couple polls that had Michigan firmly for Obama.

Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Ohio will also move from toss-ups to leaning Obama.

the obama camp is confident they'll land North Carolina again too.
Click to expand...





North Carolina: not a chance in Hell Obama wins this state, he is already pulling ads
 
I like this guy's projections the best: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
His statistical methods were learned in the study of baseball, so you know he's legit.
He gives Obama a 75% chance of getting reelected and he gives Romney a 73% chance of winning NC. He predicted all but one state correctly last year (I don't know how early he called it though, probably last minute.)

edit: Last election...not last year.
 
Last edited:
Thanks Red

I'll add it.

I know I've looked at that site (blog?) before, they had a lot of information out there on the Republican primaries.
 
redandguilty said:
I like this guy's projections the best: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
His statistical methods were learned in the study of baseball, so you know he's legit.
He gives Obama a 75% chance of getting reelected and he gives Romney a 73% chance of winning NC. He predicted all but one state correctly last year (I don't know how early he called it though, probably last minute.)

edit: Last election...not last year.
Click to expand...

yeah, that's what I thought; Michigan was firmly Obama; Ohio & Wisconsin already leaning blue, and the trends positive for the dems
 
Its no surprise Barack is Michigan. With Detroit, its a dem state. Always has been.
 
a few comments on the CBS poll...

in Va they polled 24% Republicans and 35% Democrats..in a state Obama won in a historic election by 6pts.

in Colorado, they show Romney gaining 2pts with the woman and 1 pt with men from their Aug poll, but Romney only picks up 1 pt??? LOL

in Wi, they polled 27% republicans, 35% democrats..
 
Last edited:
tsmith7559 said:
a few comments on the CBS poll...

in Va they polled 24% Republicans and 35% Democrats..in a state Obama won in a historic election by 6pts.

in Colorado, they show Romney gaining 2pts with the woman and 1 pt with men from their Aug poll, but Romney only picks up 1 pt??? LOL

in Wi, they polled 27% republicans, 35% democrats..
Click to expand...

Feel free to post your own, I'm only giving what's out there and current.
 
grandy said:
Feel free to post your own, I'm only giving what's out there and current.
Click to expand...


just commenting...some people dont get into the internals of polls.

just like the Penn poll(which I dont think Romney will win), why poll only 10% independents??
 
Last edited:
tsmith7559 said:
just commenting...some people dont get into the internals of polls.

just like the Penn poll(which I dont think Romney will win), why poll only 10% independents??
Click to expand...

True

Some factors aren't thrown out there when putting up the numbers, specifically

- Party identification %
- How the questions were asked/worded
- Likely or registered voters (even see some general adult/18+ polls)


Personally I only really look at likely voter polls, I don't see any point in the other types.
 
grandy said:
True

Some factors aren't thrown out there when putting up the numbers, specifically

- Party identification %
- How the questions were asked/worded
- Likely or registered voters (even see some general adult/18+ polls)


Personally I only really look at likely voter polls, I don't see any point in the other types.
Click to expand...


I agree..Not sure why Gallup is still polling registered voters at this point of the campaign. typically it would benefit Obama by 1 maybe 2%
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

About Us

Founded in 2011, Detroit Sports Forum is a community of fanatics dedicated to teams like the Lions, Tigers, Pistons, Red Wings, Wolverines, and more. We live and breathe Detroit sports!

Stay Connected

Forum statistics

Threads
34,780
Messages
1,129,163
Members
978
Latest member
Kamakzie

Affiliates

    Discussion Hub
Back
Top