2012 Electoral College Thread

[tsmith7559]

http://www.unskewedpolls.com/index.cfm

Could be nothing.

I saw that myself...However, I'm not a 100% believer, but some truth to it. The fact is too many polling companies are assuming an electorate of 2008 or better for Obama. Not a chance

 

[Thumb]

which "news" did you see this on?

abc

 

[Michchamp]

anytime you want to bet...let me know

bet what? you said there's not a chance in hell obama wins in NC.

he's already 4 pts up on Romney according to a poll conducted by a conservative NC news site, and by the current trends, that margin is increasing.

you're wrong. you lost.

 

[Michchamp]

http://www.unskewedpolls.com/index.cfm

Could be nothing.

probably is nothing. site was created in August of this year, and registered to what looks like a GOP operative based in Massachusetts... link.

"Technical Contact:
Chambers, D. M. Ross [email protected]"

but there's no reason to think a party staffer would have any reason to provide misleading polling data during election season.

i mean, he even calls it "un-skewed" making it clear there is no skew. just like Fox News' helpfully describes themselves as "Fair and Balanced" ...

 

[tsmith7559]

probably is nothing. site was created in August of this year, and registered to what looks like a GOP operative based in Massachusetts... link.

"Technical Contact:
Chambers, D. M. Ross [email protected]"

but there's no reason to think a party staffer would have any reason to provide misleading polling data during election season.

i mean, he even calls it "un-skewed" making it clear there is no skew. just like Fox News' helpfully describes themselves as "Fair and Balanced" ...

its all about the numbers, not opinions....if you want to use an unrealistic electorate you will get unrealistic results. If you poll 6% more dems in a state whos electorate isnt so...well, you get a shitty poll, dont ya?

 

[grandy]

2008 numbers vs 2012 numbers

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...12_vs_election_2008_four_years_ago_today.html

 

[byco42]

The only unskewed poll that will matter is the one that is taken on 11-7. The rest is conversation. I see that President Obama made another statesman-like impression on that most serious of news programs, The View.

http://theview.abc.go.com/video/hot-topics-president-obama-coming-view?cid=twitter_view

 

[grandy]

Some more polls out today

3 by ARG

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/NV12.html
Obama up 7 in Nevada

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/IA12.html
Obama up 7 in Iowa

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/FL12.html
Obama up 5 in Florida

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/Mercyhurst_PA_0924.pdf
Obama up 8 in Pennsylvania

 

[Michchamp]

The only unskewed poll that will matter is the one that is taken on 11-7. The rest is conversation. I see that President Obama made another statesman-like impression on that most serious of news programs, The View.

http://theview.abc.go.com/video/hot-topics-president-obama-coming-view?cid=twitter_view

well, the next time either candidate goes on a serious news program will be the first.

 

[grandy]

Updated Electoral Map from Karl Rove (released every Monday)

http://www.rove.com/maps/105

196 Obama
51 Lean Obama
100 Toss Up
32 Lean Romney
159 Romney

 

[Thumb]

The only unskewed poll that will matter is the one that is taken on 11-7. The rest is conversation. I see that President Obama made another statesman-like impression on that most serious of news programs, The View.

http://theview.abc.go.com/video/hot-topics-president-obama-coming-view?cid=twitter_view

Am I missing something? He made "another statesman-like impression" or he will?

Because it's saying it does not even happen until tomorrow.

In any case, the Secret Service better frisk Hasselbeck pretty thoroughly.

 

[byco42]

Am I missing something? He made "another statesman-like impression" or he will?

Because it's saying it does not even happen until tomorrow.

In any case, the Secret Service better frisk Hasselbeck pretty thoroughly.

What you are missing is legion. The "statesman-like impression" is the very act of matching wits with the like of that super-brain Joy Behar while the world rages, the UN is in session and he has no bi-lateral meetings. At the very least he could have gotten on the phone and smacked down that nut job from Pakistan and told him to cancel the $100,000 bounty on that moron filmmaker within 24 hours or kiss your foreign aid goodbye.

Or, hell (!) he could just threaten to just drop a drone down his chimney. It's raining drones in Pakistan anyway. One could "go off course."

 

[grandy]

3 more polls out

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postFLOHpoll_20120923.html
Washington Post has Obama up 4 in Florida and up 8 in Ohio

http://www.scribd.com/doc/106848007/Report-Ohio-Sep-21-22-2012-1
Gravis with Obama up 1 in Ohio

 

[tsmith7559]

3 more polls out

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postFLOHpoll_20120923.html
Washington Post has Obama up 4 in Florida and up 8 in Ohio

http://www.scribd.com/doc/106848007/Report-Ohio-Sep-21-22-2012-1
Gravis with Obama up 1 in Ohio

Gravis polled 10% more Dems and only up 1%..???? Polls are all over the place. WP polls "adults" & "registered voters"...idk...would be nice to get accurate electorates when polling....seems like these are propaganda polls

 

[tsmith7559]

Some more polls out today

3 by ARG

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/NV12.html
Obama up 7 in Nevada

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/IA12.html
Obama up 7 in Iowa

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/FL12.html
Obama up 5 in Florida

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/Mercyhurst_PA_0924.pdf
Obama up 8 in Pennsylvania

interesting, Romney not losing any of the independents in the ARG poll...once again over sampling Dem electorate in Nev, Ia & Fl.......10% polling of blacks in Nev, lol, they only make up 8% of population and certain much less as an electorate...oh well, just an observation

 

[Michchamp]

Gravis polled 10% more Dems and only up 1%..???? Polls are all over the place. WP polls "adults" & "registered voters"...idk...would be nice to get accurate electorates when polling....seems like these are propaganda polls

it's not that they polled more dems intentionally, it's that more of the people in this poll just happened to identify as dems.

if I poll 50% republicans and 50% dems... what's the point? you'd expect the results to be near 50/50, which has nothing to do with how the general public will vote in the election.

Is this really that complicated? Is anyone else here struggling with the basic concept of "polling?"

 

[tsmith7559]

it's not that they polled more dems intentional, it's that more people identify as dems.

if I poll 50% republicans and 50% dems... what's the point? you'd expect the results to be near 50/50, which has nothing to do with how the general public will vote in the election.

Is this really that complicated? Is anyone else here struggling with the basic concept of "polling?"

poll the electorate, why would you poll +6 Dems in Fl??

 

[Michchamp]

poll the electorate, why would you poll +6 Dems in Fl??

how do you know what "the electorate is"?

You call 1,000 people... 600 identify as Democratic, 400 as Republican... you go with the result of that.

 

[grandy]

it's not that they polled more dems intentionally, it's that more of the people in this poll just happened to identify as dems.

if I poll 50% republicans and 50% dems... what's the point? you'd expect the results to be near 50/50, which has nothing to do with how the general public will vote in the election.

Is this really that complicated? Is anyone else here struggling with the basic concept of "polling?"

They obviously hang up the phone on republicans.

 

[tsmith7559]

how do you know what "the electorate is"?

You call 1,000 people... 600 identify as Democratic, 400 as Republican... you go with the result of that.

fair enough...lets just take a minute and look at the 2008 election. Obama won Fl by 2.6%, it was an historic election for sure....young voters turned out, minority voters turned out.
2010 was an awakening, people were rejecting Obama accross the country.
Do you really believe after 4yrs and a record he has to run on he will get that support again??? Polling in the jewish communities show a slight decline for Obama. Florida has a Republican gov. and split on the senators...they have a majority of rep. congressman. Why would you poll more than 2% dems in this state??? prior to that Bush won
Fl by, what, 5%??? (2004). Dems might have an edge in registration, but they just dont get a high enough turnout. Indpendent voters being polled show Romney leading in Fl.

When I see polls with registered voters, I discard them, when I see over sampling, I discard them.

in 2011, Wisconsin electorate was +1R in the recall election...why would you poll +6 Dem now??? whats changed.