has Romney gained ground: 1.) anywhere, 2.) any of the "battleground" states, or 3.) anywhere outside of the deep red states, i.e. the South, Utah, and Wyoming?
I think he's been slipping nationwide for some time now.
OHIO – Leads Among Independents
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Ohio Newspaper Organization – Romney +28
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac – Romney +1
American Research Group – Romney +16
Fox News – Romney +4
We Ask America – Romney +3
Public Policy Polling – Romney +2
If Romney is 2% ahead with Independents it would be a swing of 10%(Obama won them by 8% in 2008)
Obama won the state by 259,000 in 2008 with +8 in Dem turnout.
Independents comprised 1,680,000 votes out of 5,600,000 cast(2008). A swing of 10% would give Romney +168,000 from the 2008 turnout.
If the state goes +5.5 Dem Obama would lose based on Independents.
More Dems voted Republican than Republicans voted Dem(2008)
FLORIDA - Leads Among Independents
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CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac – Romney +3
Gravis Marketing – Romney +4
We Ask America – Romney +2
American Research Group – Romney +1
Florida Times Union – Romney +4
If Romney is 3% ahead on IndepeNdent Voters it would be a swing of 10%(Obama won by 7% in 2008 with Independents). Independents comprised 2,400,000 votes out of 8,300,000 cast(2008). A swing of 10%(240,000) would give Romney the state if the dem/rep turnout is the same as it was in 2008.
Obama won the state in 2008 by 235,000
Republicans have a net 240,000 in new registration in the state from 2008.
Too many polls have +9 Dem advantage when it was only 3% in 2008.
just something to look at other than the poll headline
