5 runs or more

[Rebbiv]

2012 = 9-1 (.900 W%) when they score 5 runs or more. 60.0% of the wins. 34.5% of games with 5 runs or more.

2006 - 2011 = 380-95 (.800) when they score 5 runs or more. 73.2% of wins. 48.8% of games with 5 runs or more.

Last 3 years (2009-2011) = 180-42 (.811) when they score 5 runs or more. 68.7% of wins. 45.6% of games with 5 runs or more.

 

[Mitchrapp]

So there pitching has been better?

 

[Mitchrapp]

Or they're scoring more than 5 wins..

 

[Rebbiv]

Since 2006, there has only been 4 teams with less than DET's current 34.4% of scoring of 5 runs or more a game. 3 of those teams did not even win 70 games.


W% when scoring 5 or more runs (6 runs or more)

AL since 2006 = .781 (.832)

AL last 3 years = .785 (.839)

DET since 2006 = .800 (.854)

DET last 3 years = .811 (.888)

AL Playoff since 2006 = .826 (.867)

AL Playoff teams last 3 years = .819 (.864)


These means DET has a W% of .309 in games which they do not score 5 or more runs (last 3 years). The more games they score 5 or more runs, the less number of games that falls into that .309 W%.


PCT of W's that are 5 or more runs (6 runs or more)

AL since 2006 = 71.3% (57.4%)

AL last 3 years = 69.3% (55.0%)

DET since 2006 = 73.2% (59.7%)

DET last 3 years = 68.7% (54.6%)

AL Playoff teams since 2006 = 73.0% (59.4%)

AL Playoff teams last 3 years = 71.5% (57.8%)

Note that AL Playoff teams do not have significant higher percentage of wins when scoring 5 runs or more compared to the rest of the league. Yes, it is higher, but not by a lot.


Percentage of games that are 5 runs or more (6 runs or more)


AL since 2006 = 46.3% (34.9%)

AL last 3 years = 44.4% (33.0%)

DET since 2006 = 48.8% (37.3%)

DET last 3 years = 45.6% (33.1%)

AL Playoff teams since 2006 = 51.7% (40.1%)

AL Playoff teams last 3 years = 51.0% (39.1%)



Now, if you look at the 24 worst record teams since 2006:

.702 W% when scoring 5 runs or more (.772 with 6 runs or more)

70.4% of Wins come from 5 runs or more (55.8% of Wins, 6 runs or more)

41.8% of games with 5 runs or more (30.2% of games with 6 runs or more)

The percent of Wins are not too far off the AL average. So even bad teams will get at least 70% of their wins in games where they score 5 runs or more.


Certainly, everything above can be reversed for pitching. If your pitchers limit the number o f 5 runs or more games, then you are more apt to win games. However, if neither of you score 5 or more runs, then since 2006, the AL W% is just .500.

 

[biggunsbob]

Starting pitching has been fantastic... We all thought the bullpen would be ok... I think we will take off soon i hope... maybe Fister and Verlander can win back to back games..

 

[Rebbiv]

Currently 18-18

11-2 .846 when scoring 5 runs or more

8-1 .888 when scoring 6 runs or more

36.1% of games scoring 5 runs or more

If DET was scoring 5 runs or more at the league AVERAGE rate and with the assumed W%, DET would be sitting at 20-16 at least.

 

[tomdalton22]

Update

11-3 .786 scoring 5 or more
8-2 .800 scoring 6 or more
37.8 % scored 5 or more

 

[Rebbiv]

Currently 22-24

14-3 .824 when scoring 5 runs or more

11-2 .846 when scoring 6 runs or more

37.0% of games scoring 5 runs or more

 

[Rebbiv]

Currently 22-24

14-3 .824 when scoring 5 runs or more

11-2 .846 when scoring 6 runs or more

34.0% of games scoring 5 runs or more


DET is 8th is Runs Per Game.

2012 AL Records with 5 or more Runs:

NYY 23-6 (29)

TOR 19-7 (26)

BOS 22-3 (25)

TEX 20-5 (25)

BAL 19-5 (24)

CHW 20-3 (23)

LAA 17-5 (22) 13th in R/G

SEA 16-3 (19) 10th in R/G

CLE 15-4 (19) 7th in R/G

MIN 13-6 (19) 12th in R/G

TBR 16-2 (18) 9th in R/G

KCR 13-5 (18) 11th in R/G

DET 14-3 (17) 8th in R/G

OAK 13-4 (17) 14th in R/G

 

[Rebbiv]

Currently 26-31

16-4 .800 when scoring 5 runs or more

13-3 .813 when scoring 6 runs or more

35.1% of games scoring 5 runs or more

 

[Rebbiv]

Currently 28-32

17-5 .773 when scoring 5 runs or more

14-3 .824 when scoring 6 runs or more

36.7% of games scoring 5 runs or more

 

[Rebbiv]

Currently 30-33

19-5 .792 when scoring 5 runs or more

15-3 .833 when scoring 6 runs or more

38.1% of games scoring 5 runs or more


10-9 in last 19 games

7-2 when scoring 5 runs or more

6-1 when scoring 6 runs or more

47.4% of games scoring 5 runs or more


Verlander 14 GS 4 GS with 5 runs or more (28.6%)

Porcello 13 GS 6 GS with 5 runs or more (46.2%)

Scherzer 13 GS 6 GS with 5 runs or more (46.2%)

Smyly 12 GS 6 GS with 5 runs or more (50.0%)

Fister 6 GS 1 GS with 5 runs or more (16.7%)

Wilk 3 GS 0 GS with 5 runs or more (0.0%)

Crosby 2 GS 1 GS with 5 runs or more (50.0%)

 

[Rebbiv]

Currently 34-37

21-5 .808 when scoring 5 runs or more

16-3 .842 when scoring 6 runs or more

36.6% of games scoring 5 runs or more


14-13 in last 27 games

9-2 when scoring 5 runs or more

7-1 when scoring 6 runs or more

40.7% of games scoring 5 runs or more

 

[manchild98]

Tigers have scored 3 runs or less 32 times in their 71 games (10 wins 22 losses).

 

[Rebbiv]

Currently 37-39

23-7 .767 when scoring 5 runs or more

17-4 .810 when scoring 6 runs or more

39.5% of games scoring 5 runs or more


17-15 in last 32 games

11-4 when scoring 5 runs or more

8-2 when scoring 6 runs or more

46.9% of games scoring 5 runs or more

 

[Rebbiv]

Currently 44-42

29-8 .784 when scoring 5 runs or more

21-5 .808 when scoring 6 runs or more

43.0% of games scoring 5 runs or more


24-18 (.571) in last 42 games

17-5 when scoring 5 runs or more

12-3 when scoring 6 runs or more

52.4% of games scoring 5 runs or more

 

[Rebbiv]

Currently 46-43

30-9 .769 when scoring 5 runs or more

22-6 .786 when scoring 6 runs or more

43.8% of games scoring 5 runs or more


26-19 (.578) in last 42 games

18-6 when scoring 5 runs or more

13-4 when scoring 6 runs or more

53.3% of games scoring 5 runs or more

 

[Rebbiv]

20-11 (.645) since June 8.

14-4 when scoring 5 runs or more


58.1% of games scoring 5 runs or more.


Does anyone need more evidence that consistently scoring 5 runs or more is connected to how a team performs?

 

[tomdalton22]

20-11 (.645) since June 8.

14-4 when scoring 5 runs or more


58.1% of games scoring 5 runs or more.


Does anyone need more evidence that consistently scoring 5 runs or more is connected to how a team performs?

It's common sense. There are only 2 teams that give up more than 5 runs a game. If you score 5 a game you are going to be very successful.

 

[Rebbiv]

Currently 52-44

35-9 .795 when scoring 5 runs or more

26-6 .813 when scoring 6 runs or more

45.8% of games scoring 5 runs or more


32-20 (.615) in last 52 games

23-6 when scoring 5 runs or more

17-4 when scoring 6 runs or more

55.8% of games scoring 5 runs or more