5 runs or more

[Rebbiv]

Currently 61-52

43-10 .811 when scoring 5 runs or more

33-7 .825 when scoring 6 runs or more

46.9% of games scoring 5 runs or more


35-20 (.636) in last 55 games

27-5 .844 when scoring 5 runs or more

21-4 .840 when scoring 6 runs or more

58.2% of games scoring 5 runs or more

 

[Rebbiv]

Since 30 July of 2011 (acquiring Fister)

Scherzer 34 GS 15-9, 21-13 Team 20 G5, 58.8% (12-2-6) Record w/5 (3-7-4) wo/5
Verlander 33 GS 21-7, 23-10 Team 14 G5, 42.4% (12-0-2) Record w/5 (9-7-3) wo/5
Porcello 33 GS 12-9, 22-11 Team 20 G5, 60.6% (11-1-8) Record w/5 (1-8-4) wo/5
Fister 27 GS 13-8, 15-12 Team 10 G5, 37.0% (7-2-1) Record w/5 (6-6-5) wo/5
Smyly 15 GS 4-3, 8-7 Team 8 G5, 53.3% (3-1-4) Record w/5 (1-2-4) wo/5
Penny 10 GS 4-3, 6-4 Team 6 G5, 60.0% (3-0-3) Record w/5 (1-3-0) wo/5
Turner 5 GS 1-1, 2-3 Team 3 G5, 50.0% (1-0-2) Record w/5 (0-1-1) wo/5
Crosby 3 GS 1-1, 1-2 Team 1 G5, 33.3% (1-0-0) Record w/5 (0-1-1) wo/5
Sanchez 3 GS 1-2, 1-2 Team 2 G5, 66.7% (1-1-0) Record w/5 (0-1-0) wo/5
Wilk 3 GS 0-3, 0-3 Team 0 G5, 00.0% (0-0-0) Record w/5 (0-3-0) wo/5
Below 1 GS 0-0, 0-1 Team 1 G5, 100.0% (0-0-1) Record w/5 (0-0-0) wo/5

167 GS 72-46, 99-68 .593 85 G5, 50.9%
Team is 68-17, .800 WPCT when team scores 5 runs or more
Starters are 51-7, .879 WPCT with 27 No Decision when the team scores 5 runs or more

Current 5 Starters
140 GS 62-35, 82-48 Team 66 G5, 47.1% (43-6-17)

 

[Rebbiv]

Currently 69-58

49-11 .817 when scoring 5 runs or more

34-7 .829 when scoring 6 runs or more

47.2% of games scoring 5 runs or more


43-26 (.623) in last 69 games

33-6 .846 when scoring 5 runs or more

22-4 .846 when scoring 6 runs or more

56.5% of games scoring 5 runs or more

 

[tomdalton22]

Rebbiv....you seem to be doing a lot of work on this thread on stats that seem to be just common sense. It is kind of like tracking if a team only gives up 3 runs they win at a high percentage of the time.

 

[byco42]

Rebbiv....you seem to be doing a lot of work on this thread on stats that seem to be just common sense. It is kind of like tracking if a team only gives up 3 runs they win at a high percentage of the time.

We heard you the first time. The story here is that the Tigers have the arsenal to score 5 per game and they should be waxing clean the ALC on that basis alone.

 

[tinselwolverine]

I read a stat, I'm not sure if it's true, but it says that when a team scores 5 runs, or more, and gives up 3 runs, or less, that team wins 100% of those games.

 

[Rebbiv]

Rebbiv....you seem to be doing a lot of work on this thread on stats that seem to be just common sense. It is kind of like tracking if a team only gives up 3 runs they win at a high percentage of the time.

I have been studying and using run data for a few years now. It might be intuitive to think you would do equally well by limiting a team to 3 runs or less. Let?s look at the facts (2010 and 2010 records).

AL Teams scoring 5 runs or more

1941 games .790 WPCT 68.5% of all wins

DET = .822 WPCT 71.0% of all wins

Top 5 teams = .821 WPCT 71.1% of all wins

Bottom 5 teams = .742 WPCT 62.1 of all wins



AL Teams limiting 3 runs or less

1990 games .795 WPCT 69.4% of all wins

DET = .836 WPCT 66.5% of all wins

Top 5 teams = .829 WPCT 67.6% of all wins

Bottom 5 teams = .768 WPCT 71.8% of all wins


At first glance, the two look basically equal, except the bottom 5 teams get a higher percent of their wins when limiting their opponent to 3 runs or less. The top 5 winning teams (DET is 5th) are also the top 5 teams with number of games scoring 5 or more runs. Is this a coincidence?


So, let?s look at the games in which neither team scores 5 runs or more.

1489 games .501 WPCT 32.7% of all wins

DET = .537 WPCT 29.0% of all wins

Top 5 teams = .542 WPCT 28.9% of all wins

Bottom 5 teams = .463 WPCT 37.7% of all wins


The AL record is .501 (interleague play skews this). The top 7 teams have the top 7 WPCT in this area. The bottom 7 has the worst records. There are 3 teams with the most number of games played in this area, SEA, OAK and LAA. Arguably, the 3 teams that have the best AL pitcher friendly parks. TBR would be fourth. Again, another pitcher friendly park.


Teams win by scoring more runs than the other team. I am a proponent that scoring runs (i.e. Run Support) helps the pitcher. Certainly, good pitching is a factor.


Number of games scoring 5 runs or more and also limiting the opponents to 3 runs or less (think blowout wins)

NYY 85 (192 wins, #1)

TBR 78 (187 wins, #2)

DET 65 (176 wins, #5)



Bottom 5

SEA 37 (128 wins, #14)

BAL 41 (135 wins, #13)

KCR 41 (138 wins, #12)


The issue with DET?s offense, is that it is all or nothing from one game to the next. It isn?t consistent. Consistent offense helps in the low scoring games. Again, some of the teams that limit their opponents, do not have the offense to capitalize.

 

[tomdalton22]

I have been studying and using run data for a few years now. It might be intuitive to think you would do equally well by limiting a team to 3 runs or less. Let?s look at the facts (2010 and 2010 records).

AL Teams scoring 5 runs or more

1941 games .790 WPCT 68.5% of all wins

DET = .822 WPCT 71.0% of all wins

Top 5 teams = .821 WPCT 71.1% of all wins

Bottom 5 teams = .742 WPCT 62.1 of all wins



AL Teams limiting 3 runs or less

1990 games .795 WPCT 69.4% of all wins

DET = .836 WPCT 66.5% of all wins

Top 5 teams = .829 WPCT 67.6% of all wins

Bottom 5 teams = .768 WPCT 71.8% of all wins


At first glance, the two look basically equal, except the bottom 5 teams get a higher percent of their wins when limiting their opponent to 3 runs or less. The top 5 winning teams (DET is 5th) are also the top 5 teams with number of games scoring 5 or more runs. Is this a coincidence?


So, let?s look at the games in which neither team scores 5 runs or more.

1489 games .501 WPCT 32.7% of all wins

DET = .537 WPCT 29.0% of all wins

Top 5 teams = .542 WPCT 28.9% of all wins

Bottom 5 teams = .463 WPCT 37.7% of all wins


The AL record is .501 (interleague play skews this). The top 7 teams have the top 7 WPCT in this area. The bottom 7 has the worst records. There are 3 teams with the most number of games played in this area, SEA, OAK and LAA. Arguably, the 3 teams that have the best AL pitcher friendly parks. TBR would be fourth. Again, another pitcher friendly park.


Teams win by scoring more runs than the other team. I am a proponent that scoring runs (i.e. Run Support) helps the pitcher. Certainly, good pitching is a factor.


Number of games scoring 5 runs or more and also limiting the opponents to 3 runs or less (think blowout wins)

NYY 85 (192 wins, #1)

TBR 78 (187 wins, #2)

DET 65 (176 wins, #5)



Bottom 5

SEA 37 (128 wins, #14)

BAL 41 (135 wins, #13)

KCR 41 (138 wins, #12)


The issue with DET?s offense, is that it is all or nothing from one game to the next. It isn?t consistent. Consistent offense helps in the low scoring games. Again, some of the teams that limit their opponents, do not have the offense to capitalize.

That is a shit load of stats. I'm not sure how meaningful they are but I will agree that the Tiger's offense isn't consistent enough.

 

[Rebbiv]

Currently 80-72

58-13 .817 when scoring 5 runs or more (72.5% of wins)

40-9 .816 when scoring 6 runs or more

46.7% of games scoring 5 runs or more


54-40 (.574) in last 94 games

42-8 .840 when scoring 5 runs or more (77.8% of wins)

28-6 .824 when scoring 6 runs or more

53.2% of games scoring 5 runs or more


DET is 36-30 (.545) since the break

29-5 when scoring 5 runs or more, accounting for 80.6% of their wins

29-11 when limiting opponent to 3 runs or less, also 80.6% of their wins

DET is 7-11 when limiting opponent to 3 runs or less, but NOT scoring 5 runs or more