B1G Championship Game vs Iowa

[thewolverines24]

Figured we should have a thread to talk about the game this week. One team will be winning their first B1G title in 17 years. Michigan and Iowa tied for the title in 2004. We beat them head to head and got the trip to the Rose Bowl.

Go Blue!

 

[Mitchrapp]

Go Blue. No prediction from me don't want to jinx it away.

 

[Michchamp]

I keep thinking of that game a couple years ago where we beat them 10-3, and even though they were never more than 1 score from tying it up, it felt like we were up 40-0.

I don't think their offense has improved much since then, and by almost any measure we're better than we were.

Maybe their defense is better too, but still... can't rely entirely on turnovers and field position against a team like ours that rarely fumbles or throws INTs.

I'd hate to play this game on a Friday the 13th in Iowa, but it's in Indianapolis, on Saturday December 4th, so...

 

[tinselwolverine]

Go Blue. No prediction from me don't want to jinx it away.

This isn?t the prediction thread.

 

[Mitchrapp]

This isn?t the prediction thread.

Regardless. Sorry sir.

 

[bphillips4gg]

I liked this match up better than a rematch with Wisconsin. Their offense is anemic at best but their defense is solid with no glaring holes. Take care of the ball and we will be in great shape. They're getting ridiculously lucky with forcing turnovers this year and although there's an element of skill involved there, it's really difficult to rely on forcing turnovers to win games. Their stats are somewhat inflated by Maryland throwing 6(!) interceptions. They've lost both games they lost the turnover margin, so it will be important to take care of the ball. Building an early lead and forcing them to throw would help as well since they're just not great at passing.

 

[thewolverines24]

I liked this match up better than a rematch with Wisconsin. Their offense is anemic at best but their defense is solid with no glaring holes. Take care of the ball and we will be in great shape. They're getting ridiculously lucky with forcing turnovers this year and although there's an element of skill involved there, it's really difficult to rely on forcing turnovers to win games. Their stats are somewhat inflated by Maryland throwing 6(!) interceptions. They've lost both games they lost the turnover margin, so it will be important to take care of the ball. Building an early lead and forcing them to throw would help as well since they're just not great at passing.

I've watched a few Iowa games this year and they have been on the receiving end of some of the worst passes I've ever seen. QBs throwing head scratching INTs into their laps. Cade just needs to be his normal self and take care of the ball and we should be fine.

Iowa's QB has not thrown a TD pass since October 9th against PSU. He's thrown 4 INTs, all against Purdue. He got benched against Northwestern and only had 4 pass attempts that game. So in his last 4 games against Purdue, Wisconsin, NW, and Nebraska, he threw for 394 yards, 98.5 YPG, 0 TDs, 4 INTs, 51 CMP%. Wow.

 

[UMRules06]

The team needs to refocus. It was an incredibly emotional win Saturday and they invested a lot of themselves in preparing for it all year long and it paid off. That is the most concerning thing for me going into the Iowa game, that with a quick turnaround they might not be able to emotionally get themselves back up for another tough opponent.

Iowa will be hearing all week how everyone's gonna be auto-picking Michigan to win. Could be a recipe for an upset in the worst case scenario where Iowa is playing inspired and Michigan comes out flat.

Sort of similar to that old knock of Bo's teams not always playing well in bowl games after beating OSU I suppose.

 

[b311j]

Vegas sees the good guys as a 10.5 point favorite.

 

[byco42]

The team needs to refocus. It was an incredibly emotional win Saturday and they invested a lot of themselves in preparing for it all year long and it paid off. That is the most concerning thing for me going into the Iowa game, that with a quick turnaround they might not be able to emotionally get themselves back up for another tough opponent.

Iowa will be hearing all week how everyone's gonna be auto-picking Michigan to win. Could be a recipe for an upset in the worst case scenario where Iowa is playing inspired and Michigan comes out flat.

Sort of similar to that old knock of Bo's teams not always playing well in bowl games after beating OSU I suppose.

I expect Michigan to play a sound game. I don?t consider the Rose Bowl six weeks after the final game of the season to compare with a game 7 days after a win over OSU.

 

[bphillips4gg]

I've watched a few Iowa games this year and they have been on the receiving end of some of the worst passes I've ever seen. QBs throwing head scratching INTs into their laps. Cade just needs to be his normal self and take care of the ball and we should be fine.

Iowa's QB has not thrown a TD pass since October 9th against PSU. He's thrown 4 INTs, all against Purdue. He got benched against Northwestern and only had 4 pass attempts that game. So in his last 4 games against Purdue, Wisconsin, NW, and Nebraska, he threw for 394 yards, 98.5 YPG, 0 TDs, 4 INTs, 51 CMP%. Wow.

Those are pretty dreadful stats. That's a Stat line I'd expect to see from a Rutgers or Illinois QB, not the opponent in the B1G championship game. And I have more confidence than ever in our corners' ability to man up their receiver's so we can stack the box after out corners kept 3 nfl receivers in check this weekend.

I honestly don't worry too much about this team's focus. I think every one of them realizes how much of a letdown it would be to finally get past OSU only to shit the bed the following week. I fully expect them to be prepared and was glad the Jim addressed it in his press conference (likening it to the 1980 hockey team that beat Russia in the semi-finals).

I don't want to get overconfident about it, but I like our chances in this game.

 

[UMRules06]

I expect Michigan to play a sound game. I don?t consider the Rose Bowl six weeks after the final game of the season to compare with a game 7 days after a win over OSU.

Oh yes don't get me wrong, I too don't think my worst case scenario will happen. I also expect us to play very well and cap off the season with a championship.

Just saying I could see it happening is all.

 

[zyxt9]

They only need to look at MSU losing to am inferior team the week after beating UM to recognize how easy those things happen.

Absolutely have to stop the Iowa run game.

The Iowa tackles are both freshmen who have struggled in pass protection. Ojabo and Hutch should feast on Iowa, but they absolutely need to prevent Iowa from running well enough to have short 3rd downs. I worry about this because they have struggled against the run up the middle, which is Iowa's strength as their center is going to be a starter in the NFL next year from what I hear. The DTs need to have a really strong showing.

Obviously Iowa can be beaten. Need it to be a blowout level win IMO. IF Bama beats Georgia things will be tight. Sure, beating O$U looked awesome, but that was last week. Gotta really destroy Iowa, and if that happens maybe UM will be no lower than the #2 seed. If it is a tight game, they could drop to 3, 4, or even 5 depending on how others do. You really are only as good as your last game in this situation. Cincy and OkSt having dominating wins while UM limps to a 'bad' win, coupled with Bama winning a close game over Georgia... UM might find themselves on the outside. Wouldn't be the first time Michigan got screwed over like that, it has happened several times. Hell, even '97 should not have been a split title but because the Rose Bowl was close down to the end while Nebraska won big caused that split to become possible.

So, IMO, UM needs to not just win like they did against Nebraska, I think they need to win more like they did vs Washington and O$U where they completely overpowered their opponent and won in convincing fashion that left no room for doubt.

And one can claim there is no way the #2 team can win and then drop out of the playoff, but I'm old enough to know it CAN happen and there are voters who love to vote against UM using the smallest of possible excuses.

 

[thewolverines24]

I had no idea their offense was this bad. From CBS: "If you saw the Hawkeyes at almost any point this season, you would have not believed Indianapolis would be the end result. Iowa has gotten there with the third-worst Power Five offense, 123rd out of 130 in FBS."

 

[bphillips4gg]

In a normal year I might agree that they could still be jumped after a close win. Not going to happen this year. Win and they're in. OSU will still be fresh off of getting dominated by Michigan and there's nobody else that's close.

 

[Gulo Blue]

Jim Harbaugh said it's hit him a lot that the 1980 USA Olympic hockey team beat USSR, but it wasn't the gold-medal game.

Reiterating to his team that "This is the championship game, against a great Iowa team in Indianapolis."

https://twitter.com/CSayf23/status/1465059815563137029

 

[bphillips4gg]

I can tell you that Iowa fans are pretty boorish in their predictions. Just scrolling through a few forums and around 4 out of every 5 posts are predicting a win and the other ones are very concerned about Hutch and Ojabo against their OTs who are apparently not good. The vast majority predicting a win are banking on a Michigan letdown/hangover whereas the ones predicting a loss seem to be a little more analytical in their approach.

Then again, the same posters predicting a win are also the ones trying to make the case that the B1G West is the superior division, soooo... Ya.

 

[thewolverines24]

I don't think any player on Michigan is going to have a letdown/hangover type game.

Cade: ?For the time now, we have to beat the Hawkeyes and take home a Big Ten Championship. There?s not one dude on this team that has a ring. That was one of the goals that we wanted to achieve this season and now we have to go on and achieve the next one.?

 

[Michchamp]

...
Then again, the same posters predicting a win are also the ones trying to make the case that the B1G West is the superior division, soooo... Ya.

You could point out to them that there is an objective measure here:

the Big Ten East went 11-10 against the West this year.

The West's winner, Iowa, went 3-0 against the East while dodging the top 3 East teams. in contrast, Michigan and OSU both beat top 3 West teams (Wisconsin and Minnesota)

Also, because I don't know where else to put this, I saw an interesting stat that Nebraska is the first team to go 1-8 (in conference) and have an equal Points Scored/Points Against measure. They won their one (1) conference win by 49 points, and that was equal to their combined margin of defeat in eight (8) losses.

You gotta hand it to Frost for keeping them together. even as the heartbreaking losses piled up, they didn't fold. They were beating Iowa last week 21-6 with their backup QB, before they collapsed in the 2nd half.

 

[bphillips4gg]

I don't expect a hangover at all. Not with this team. I just thought it was funny how that's their entire basis for expecting a win.

I'm not saying that they can't make it a game, but your Kinnick voodoo isn't going to be a factor here. And although I don't think this team is going to be as amped to play Iowa as they were to play OSU, it's a friggin championship game. I don't know if I have ever heard that logic when talking about a championship/playoff game ever.