Bruce Rondon in the middle of Winter League Game bench clearing brawl

[Rebbiv]

Assumptions:

Starters = Verlander, Sanchez, Zimmermann, Pelfrey, and + 1

Relievers = Rodriguez, J. Wilson, A. Wilson, Lowe, Hardy and +2



Last 3 Years Away (including minor league numbers):

B. Hardy (29) 52.0 RC/650 .205 OPP BAVG .586 OPP OPS 1.09 WHIP 3.12 xFIP

J. Wilson (28) 52.7 RC/650 .196 OPP BAVG .588 OPP OPS 1.08 WHIP 3.30 xFIP

M. Boyd (25) 58.0 RC/650 .213 OPP BAVG .632 OPP OPS 1.11 WHIP 3.48 xFIP

B. Rondon (25) 58.0 RC/650 .216 OPP BAVG .614 OPP OPS 1.25 WHIP 2.50 xFIP

A. Nesbitt (25) 59.0 RC/650 .237 OPP BAVG .634 OPP OPS 1.16 WHIP 2.82 xFIP

F. Rodriguez (34) 59.2 RC/650 .219 OPP BAVG .653 OPP OPS .099 WHIP 2.88 xFIP

D. VerHagen (25) 59.6 RC/650 .240 OPP BAVG .644 OPP OPS 1.23 WHIP 3.78 xFIP

J. Labourt (22) 62.4 RC/650 .235 OPP BAVG .639 OPP OPS 1.31 WHIP 3.13 xFIP

D. Norris (22) 64.7 RC/650 .233 OPP BAVG .656 OPP OPS 1.26 WHIP 3.09 xFIP

J. Verlander (33) 72.0 RC/650 .256 OPP BAVG .696 OPP OPS 1.27 WHIP 3.13 xFIP



J. Zimmermann (29) 75.0 RC/650 .264 OPP BAVG .720 OPP OPS 1.18 WHIP 3.28 xFIP

K. Ryan (24) 75.4 RC/650 .276 OPP BAVG .723 OPP OPS 1.36 WHIP 3.89 xFIP

A. Sanchez (32) 75.5 RC?650 .261 OPP BAVG .706 OPP OPS 1.27 WHIP 3.30 xFIP



M. Lowe (32) 76.8 RC/650 .261 OPP BAVG .728 OPP OPS 1.48 WHIP 3.09 xFIP

K. Lobstein (26) 77.0 RC/650 .285 OPP BAVG .736 OPP OPS 1.44 WHIP 3.30 xFIP

M. Fulmer (23) 77.2 RC/650 .265 OPP BAVG .706 OPP OPS 1.38 WHIP 3.43 xFIP

A. Wilson (29) 77.2 RC/650 .260 OPP BAVG .748 OPP OPS 1.38 WHIP 3.91 xFIP

S. Greene (27) 77.9 RC/650 .269 OPP BAVG .729 OPP OPS 1.32 WHIP 3.55 xFIP


J. Valdez (26) 83.3 RC/650 .252 OPP BAVG .752 OPP OPS 1.60 WHIP 3.70 xFIP

B. Farmer (25) 84.1 RC/650 .278 OPP BAVG .770 OPS OPS 1.40 WHIP 3.74 xFIP

M. Robertson (25) 87.7 RC/650 .279 OPP BAVG .735 OPP OPS 1.60 WHIP 4.16 xFIP

J. Ferrell (25) 89.2 RC/650 .288 OPP BAVG .782 OPP OPS 1.42 WHIP 3.70 xFIP


M. Pelfrey (32) 95.7 RC/650 .313 OPP BAVG .823 OPP OPS 1.60 WHIP 4.37 xFIP


If you are 25 or older, then now is the time. M. Boyd, B. Rondon, A. Nesbitt, D. VerHagen, K. Lobstein, S. Greene, J. Valdez, B. Farmer, M. Robertson and J. Ferrell are all not going to make it. Heck, it is even questionable why someone like Ferrell or Valdez are even still on the 40-man roster.


Last 3 years MLB Inherited Runners Scored (minimum 10)

F. Rodriguez 1 of 19 = 5.3%

B. Rondon 3 of 16 = 18.8%

K. Ryan 3 of 16 = 18.8%

J. Wilson 24 of 102 = 23.5%

B. Hardy 21 of 75 = 28.0%


2014 MLB AVG = 28.4
2013 MLB AVG = 28.8
2015 MLB AVG = 29.5


D. VerHagen 4 of 12 = 33.3%

A. Nesbitt 8 of 22 = 36.4%

M. Lowe 11 of 29 = 37.9%

A. Wilson 32 of 68 = 47.1%


Alex Wilson has a career year and some how automatically gets to be in the pen. Why does Spring Training change some one's status, unless it is between two similar pitchers (i.e. Rondon vs Nesbitt)? I mean it is a very small sample of a players performance/abilities.

 

[kingofdetroit57]

Who are your rotation and BP based on the stats above?

 

[Rebbiv]

Who are your rotation and BP based on the stats above?

Starters = Boyd, Norris, Verlander, Zimmermann and Sanchez

Relievers = K-Rod, J. Wilson, Hardy, Rondon, Nesbitt, VerHagen, Lowe

Again, I am ambivalent towards Rondon, but believe if he demonstrates a change attitude he has the abilities.

Pelfrey wouldn't have been signed and would be gone. I included Lowe only due to his low xFIP. He is a borderline reliever, who had a career year. Alex Wilson wouldn't make it.

Ryan and Lobstein would be on the bubble.

 

[JackCade]

Boyd a a starter. Sorry dude, but as great as Pelfrey ain't, Boyd NOT a MLB starter. Also, going into the season with basically Two rookie starters seems like a recipe for stupidity. Finally, the next best starter is Greene. He was injured last year, but his rookie year was solid with signs of good.

Boyd... chuckle, chuckle.

As for going with A. Wilson, Hardy, Verhagen based on one year. They will have to earn it in ST, obviously, but those guys earned an early nod after they saved the Tigers' ass last year -- you think last year was bad? Imagine it without them.

Ryan is NOT an MLB starter, full stop. Maybe he can become a reliever.
Lobster is a bubble MLB starter, a 7th-5th pitcher guy.

As for Pelfrey, with the Twins' -10 d behind him he was serviceable, with the Tigers' +17 D, he will be good, especially since he induces so many up the middle grounders which are into the heart of the Detroit D.
Also take a look at his home/away splits. Some careful management (too bad it is Ausmus) could see him skipping away starts so that, say, a call up can get a shot at it. Finally, as a long reliever, should it come to that, he'll bolster the pen for a play off run.

I don't like his price tag or his two year contract, but I also have suspect that he is a trading chip for the trade deadline. We'll see. It was more or less the going rate so... it is what it is.

I'm not super sure anymore than Rondon will make it out of sprint. Maybe a little test in the minors will be in order.

 

[Rebbiv]

Boyd a a starter. Sorry dude, but as great as Pelfrey ain't, Boyd NOT a MLB starter. Also, going into the season with basically Two rookie starters seems like a recipe for stupidity. Finally, the next best starter is Greene. He was injured last year, but his rookie year was solid with signs of good.

Boyd... chuckle, chuckle.

As for going with A. Wilson, Hardy, Verhagen based on one year. They will have to earn it in ST, obviously, but giving those guys an early nod after they saved the Tigers' ass last year -- you think last year was bad? Imagine it without them.

Ryan is NOT an MLB starter, full stop. Maybe he can become a reliever.
Lobster is a bubble MLB starter, a 7th-5th pitcher guy.

As for Pelfrey, with the Twins' -10 d behind him he was serviceable, with the Tigers' +17 D, he will be good, especially since he induces so many up the middle grounders which are into the heart of the Detroit D.
Also take a look at his home/away splits. Some careful management (too bad it is Ausmus) could see him skipping away starts so that, say, a call up can get a shot at it. Finally, as a long reliever, should it come to that, he'll bolster the pen for a play off run.

I don't like his price tag or his years on contract, but I also have suspect that he is a trading chip for the trade deadline. We'll see. It was more or less the going rate so... it is what it is.

I'm not super sure anymore than Rondon will make it out off sprint. Maybe a little test in the minors will be in order.

First point, Norris and Boyd are no longer classified as rookies.

Last 3 years Away Stats before starting at MLB

M. Boyd (24) 44.0 RC/650 .181 OPP BAVG .524 OPP OPS 0.96 WHIP 2.64 xFIP

S. Greene (25) 81.9 RC/650 .272 OPP BAVG .737 OPP OPS 1.47 WHIP 3.50 xFIP


S. Greene 2014 2nd Half 82.9 RC/650 .280 BAVG .757 OPP OPS 1.49 WHIP 3.56 xFIP


Look at Shane Green's scouting report. He has problems repeating his delivery (ala Alfredo Simon). If you honestly judging Boyd on his MLB starts, but overlooking Greene's total body of work, I cannot help you.


And, to add to your confusion, MIN's infield defense was roughly the same as DET's in 2015. The difference you are citing is based on OF defense and that is influenced by having Cespedes for 2/3 a season and MIN having Torii Hunter.

xFIP and/or FIP are stats that assume Fielder Independence. Both of these Pelfrey is at the bottom of the list in MLB over the last 3 years. Changing teams won't help.

I do not expect this team to win more than 81-83 games with Pelfrey. They actually would probably win 3 more without him and save $8 Mil in the process.

 

[kingofdetroit57]

Starters = Boyd, Norris, Verlander, Zimmermann and Sanchez

Relievers = K-Rod, J. Wilson, Hardy, Rondon, Nesbitt, VerHagen, Lowe

Again, I am ambivalent towards Rondon, but believe if he demonstrates a change attitude he has the abilities.

Pelfrey wouldn't have been signed and would be gone. I included Lowe only due to his low xFIP. He is a borderline reliever, who had a career year. Alex Wilson wouldn't make it.

Ryan and Lobstein would be on the bubble.

Thanks. A little surprised to see Alex Wilson out of the BP mix and Boyd in the rotation, but I could see it playing out that way in ST. If it did, we should have some decent depth in the minors with Greene, Fulmer, A. Wilson, and others. Definitely a lot better than last year where we barely had a complete rotation or pen.

 

[JackCade]

So first, minor league stats do not always predict major league results.

Second, the inconsistency of delivery is something all young pitchers struggle with and while probably not entirely solved -- even JV will get out of synch -- would be more accurately described as a "was" problem rather than an "is" issue.

Third, sorry bro, but Boyd's MLB results are sort of ... unambiguous so far. He is alright, but either needs more work in the minors and limited MLB time or needs a new role, as in, in the pen.
(This may be true of Greene, if that issue from last year wasn't solved by surgery.)

Fourth, Greene's 23 innings of one earned run ball to open the season is a small sample size BUT it does suggest some talent. That and the 3 game collapse that followed and was followed by another good stretch together with his okay opening season suggests that he probably does have the stuff, but something was making him unable to always deliver it. This means that he has potential. The kind of potential that Boyd has yet to show. It really is that simple.

Finally, when I said "basically rookies" I was indicating that I was aware that technically they were not, but that basically they are.
Sorry, I'll try to be perfectly literal for you in the future.

 

[Rebbiv]

So first, minor league stats do not always predict major league results.

Second, the inconsistency of delivery is something all young pitchers struggle with and while probably not entirely solved -- even JV will get out of synch -- would be more accurately described as a "was" problem rather than an "is" issue.

Third, sorry bro, but Boyd's MLB results are sort of ... unambiguous so far. He is alright, but either needs more work in the minors and limited MLB time or needs a new role, as in, in the pen.
(This may be true of Greene, if that issue from last year wasn't solved by surgery.)

Fourth, Greene's 23 innings of one earned run ball to open the season is a small sample size BUT it does suggest some talent. That and the 3 game collapse that followed and was followed by another good stretch together with his okay opening season suggests that he probably does have the stuff, but something was making him unable to always deliver it. This means that he has potential. The kind of potential that Boyd has yet to show. It really is that simple.

Finally, when I said "basically rookies" I was indicating that I was aware that technically they were not, but that basically they are.
Sorry, I'll try to be perfectly literal for you in the future.

No...but they are about 75-85% reliable.

Let's look at Randy Johnson's first 12 games at the MLB level. Or maybe Greg Maddux or even Tom Glavine. Certainly the first 12 games and not their minor league numbers are important.

I am sorry but you are grasping at straws. And not all pitchers struggle with repeating their delivery. While some do, it has to do with their motion and mechanics, and usually these are your high walk pitchers.