Lions Fantasy Preview
Thursday, June 23, 2016
Lions Year in Review
2015 Pass Attempts Rank: 4th (632)
2015 Rush Attempts Rank: 30th (354)
2015 Total Offensive Plays Rank: 17th (1,030)
2015 Yards Per Play Rank: 20th (5.4)
Projected Starting Lineup
QB: Matthew Stafford
RB: Ameer Abdullah
WR: Golden Tate
WR: Marvin Jones
TE: Eric Ebron
TE: Brandon Pettigrew
LT: Taylor Decker
LG: Laken Tomlinson
C: Travis Swanson
RG: Larry Warford
RT: Riley Reiff
Passing Game Outlook
Matthew Stafford's 2015 fantasy season was a tale of two halves. The fantasy QB15 in Weeks 1-8, Stafford went HAM after the Lions' Week 9 bye, compiling a 19:2 TD-to-INT ratio and 70% completion rate in the final eight games en route to overall QB6 stats in Weeks 10-17. Although adjustments made by interim OC Jim Bob Cooter did mask some of Detroit's pass protection woes, Stafford's leap was mainly attributable to a softer schedule and, as noted by Rotoworld's Rich Hribar, a prolific red-zone TD rate that looks primed for regression, particularly following Calvin Johnson's retirement. Entering his eighth NFL season, Stafford has thrown 30-plus TD passes just twice in his career and is losing a future Hall of Fame weapon. He's been a fringe fantasy starter in each of the last four years. Stafford does benefit from playing indoors in a pass-centric offense and still has an average to above-average supporting cast, even with the concerning downgrade from Megatron to Marvin Jones. While I am selling the narrative that Cooter magically saved the offense, I am willing to buy Stafford at his 12th-round ADP.
The Lions' receptions leader in back-to-back years (99, 90) with Calvin Johnson on the roster, Golden Tate is an obvious candidate for 100-plus catches in the post-Megatron era. Over the past two seasons, Johnson either didn't play, was used as a decoy, and/or was held to one catch or fewer in seven games. Tate's stat lines in those weeks were 9-60-2, 6-45-2, 8-116-0, 7-134-1, 7-44-0, 10-154-1, and 7-151-1. Although the addition of Jones will occupy some of the opportunity Johnson leaves behind, I expect Tate to become the centerpiece of Detroit's passing offense and believe he can compete for the NFC lead in receptions. Not yet 28 years old, Tate remains squarely in his prime despite last year's career-worst 9.0 yards-per-catch average, which was a byproduct of Cooter making Detroit's offense quicker hitting to cover up protection leaks. After drafting LT Taylor Decker in the first round, the Lions should be better at protecting Stafford this season, allowing Tate's Average Depth of Target to rise. Tate is worth a middle to late third-round PPR pick. Even in non-PPR, I'd begin considering him as early as round four.
Marvin Jones became the highest paid wideout in the 2016 free agent class when he inked a five-year, $40 million deal to help replace Megatron in Detroit. A longtime complementary receiver, Jones played second fiddle to Keenan Allen at Cal and A.J. Green in Cincinnati. Not imposing from a size (6'2/199) or deep-game standpoint, Jones has established himself as a solid role player by blending savvy routes with above-average run-after-catch skills and an underrated contested-catch game. He does his best work in the intermediate sections of the field as a sort of Donald Driver lite. Still only 26, Jones is joining a Lions team that has 232 unaccounted-for targets from last season. That overwhelming amount of opportunity makes Jones an intriguing middle-round fantasy bet with most of the community currently focused on Tate. Perhaps this is a non-predictive narrative, but based on my game watching of Stafford, I believe the Lions' quarterback has a tendency to decide who he will target coming out of the huddle rather than by dissecting defenses based on his progression reads. And I think Stafford's familiarity with Tate may lead to an extreme-volume season. In MFL10 best-ball drafts, I'm still pulling the trigger on Jones when he lasts into the late-seventh and early-eighth rounds. Tate has never been much of a TD scorer, and Eric Ebron is a still-developing, if ascending player.
Although his hands remained inconsistent and his blocking poor, Eric Ebron took a step forward as an NFL sophomore, ranking second on the Lions in yards per target (7.67) behind Megatron and efficiently converting 5-of-8 red-zone targets into touchdowns. He was especially useful when injury-plagued Brandon Pettigrew missed time. Whereas Ebron's 16-game receiving pace was 66-841-7 with Pettigrew out of the lineup, it dipped to 41-386-5 when Pettigrew played. Pettigrew is a candidate for the reserve/PUP list to begin 2016, which would cost him the first six games. Although more early-career impact was expected from Ebron after the Lions made him the tenth overall pick in the 2014 draft, it's worth remembering that he was exceptionally young for a rookie and is still only 23. (He is three months younger than incoming Rams rookie TE Tyler Higbee.) With Megatron out of the picture, Ebron is slated for a potentially significant target increase and offers breakout potential on a pass-centric team. While I probably wouldn't feel comfortable drafting Ebron as a surefire fantasy starter, he certainly has the god-given talent and situation to become one. He has value-pick upside at his double-digit-round ADP.
Running Game Outlook
A sixth- to seventh-round re-draft pick before last year's preseason, Ameer Abdullah's ADP soared into the fourth when he ripped off an electrifying 45-yard run in Detroit's exhibition opener. He fell well short of returning value, averaging just 10.5 touches per game in a pathetic Lions rushing offense that finished 25th in yards per carry (3.77 YPC), dead last in yards (1,335), and 27th in Football Outsiders' rushing DVOA. A 97th-percentile SPARQ athlete with a dominant college resume, Abdullah remains a better prospect than his rookie-year production showed. Abdullah did finish strong, averaging 5.32 yards per carry over his final five games. Theo Riddick's voluminous passing-game role severely curbs his PPR appeal, however, while 5-foot-9, 205-pound Abdullah may always have to be paired with a bigger back for short-yardage situations. Abdullah touched the ball just four times inside the opposing ten-yard line as a rookie. This year, Abdullah's Average Draft Position has fallen into the sixth through eighth rounds. While that is a more reasonable draft slot, Abdullah seems likely to continue to struggle to amass touchdowns and catches, which are the indispensable lifeblood of fantasy scoring.
A 5-foot-10, 201-pound scatback with 4.68 speed, Theo Riddick lacks the typical profile of an NFL player, let alone a fantasy football asset. Nevertheless, Riddick earned a critical role on a 2015 Lions team that couldn't pass protect or run the ball between the tackles, and resorted to short, quick passes to move the chains. Riddick out-snapped Joique Bell and "starter" Abdullah, leading all NFL backs in catches (80) and ranking second behind Danny Woodhead in receiving yards (697). This offseason, the Lions worked to improve their pass protection by using first- and third-round picks on offensive linemen, and anticipate internal improvement from their young, highly-drafted guards. While OC Jim Bob Cooter has promised more rushing attempts for Riddick, a legitimate on-the-ground impact from a small, slow runner with a three-year YPC average of 2.90 seems pretty unlikely. Riddick should be a useful flex option in bye-week crunches this year. Even in PPR leagues, I don't want to rely on him as a fantasy starter.
The Lions' "big back" role involves a competition between 2015 preseason star Zach Zenner, dead-legged journeyman Stevan Ridley, and seventh-round pick Dwayne Washington, a stellar athlete with minimal college production. The best prospect of the group, Zenner managed 60 yards on 17 carries as an undrafted rookie last year before suffering multiple rib fractures and a partially collapsed lung in Week 6. The winner of this job will be a candidate to lead Detroit in 2016 rushing touchdowns, but will most likely be a lightly used role player between the 20s.
2016 Vegas Win Total
A quick glance at Detroit's 2015 schedule explains precisely why Jim Caldwell's club started so slow. I can't imagine any team faced a tougher initial eight-game slate. The Lions began 1-7, but finished 6-2 and will look to carry that "momentum" into this season. Their 2016 Win Total is seven games, which is where I might slot them at first glance. Detroit's strength of schedule is middle of the pack based on opponents' Vegas Win Totals. I'm skeptical of the "momentum" and Jim Bob Cooter-driven narratives, however, and have to acknowledge the possibility of a Stafford collapse playing his first ever season without one of the best wide receivers in NFL history. On defense, the Lions have gaping holes at strong safety and the cornerback position opposite Darius Slay. Their defensive line has quantity, but lacks quality beyond RE Ziggy Ansah. There are even management concerns with rookie GM Bob Quinn yet to hire his own coaching staff. The rest of the NFC North is primed for improvement. I'm taking the under on seven wins.
http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/63401/59/lions-fantasy-preview
