http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/buster-olney/post/_/id/9204
Winners and losers of the Scherzer deal.
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When a big deal goes down the ripples always roll out in many directions, as seen in the Nationals' signing of Max Scherzer -- a deal with a multitude of winners and losers.
Let's take a look at both sides.
Winner: Scherzer, who gets tens of millions of dollars more after his bet on himself
When he turned down $144 million from the Detroit Tigers last spring, the decision was second-guessed not only by a lot of columnists, but also by a lot of other players.
That news broke right in the midst of a rash of Tommy John injuries, and privately, a lot of other players wondered how Scherzer could walk away from so much guaranteed money. One day in the middle of the summer, a longtime player called me over during batting practice and asked if it was true that Scherzer had turned down the big offer.
I answered in the affirmative. ?He?s crazy,? the player said, shaking his head as he walked away. ?Crazy.?
Actually, he?s not. Scherzer is really smart and thoughtful, and competitive, and while he has not yet addressed the reasons for that decision, I suspect he viewed it the way he would a strong hand in the midst of a poker game. He had just seen Clayton Kershaw get a $216 million deal from the Los Angeles Dodgers, in the year after Justin Verlander received a five-year, $140 million extension from the Tigers. Scherzer and his agent, Scott Boras, thought he could do better if he waited, while understanding the inherent risk. If he suffered a significant injury in 2014, or if he regressed markedly, he would cost himself millions -- tens of millions, really.
But Scherzer went to back to work after rejecting the Detroit proposal and had another strong season, making all of his starts, and no matter how you choose to evaluate the value of his deal with Washington -- and in Dave Cameron?s excellent piece about the Scherzer dollars, he explains why the present-day value of the deal might be something in the $170 million range -- it?s clear that Scherzer will get a lot more money because of the choice he made.
Winner: Scott Boras
The agent for Scherzer has fostered his relationship with Nationals billionaire owner Ted Lerner to the degree that about a third of the players on the team are Boras' clients -- Scherzer being the latest to join. Lerner is generally regarded by other owners as a relatively conservative spender, but Boras negotiated an imaginative contract structure that satisfied Lerner and, at the same time, netted the highest payout for any free-agent pitcher in baseball history.
A Formidable Five For Nationals
The Nationals' potential 2015 rotation is impressive, with all five having posted an ERA of 3.57 or lower and with four in the top 20 in all of baseball in strikeout-to-walk ratio.
2014 Statistics
ERA K-BB
Max Scherzer 3.15 252-63
Jordan Zimmermann 2.66 182-29
Stephen Strasburg 3.14 242-43
Doug Fister 2.41 98-24
Gio Gonzalez 3.57 162-56
Winners: The Nationals' executives, who have properly groomed their trade leverage in the first 48 hours after the deal
The on-background message being dispensed through reporters is that Washington intends to keep all of its starting pitching, including Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister, who are eligible for free agency after the 2015 season.
Which is exactly what you should say in this situation, rival executives maintain privately. When the Phillies traded for Roy Halladay in December 2009, they immediately rushed into a swap of Cliff Lee to the Seattle Mariners before even informing some other key teams -- the Red Sox and Yankees among them -- that Lee was available. The Nationals don?t have to address their surplus now; they have time to slow-play this, to go through the process of talking with all teams again, of even going into spring training and seeing if some injury in another camp makes another club desperate -- as the Braves were last spring, after Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy got hurt.
After letting the trade market develop, some executives with other teams fully expect the Nationals to move either Zimmermann or Fister. ?Because they don?t need all six guys,? one official said.
The signing of Scherzer could seal the departure of Zimmermann.
Loser: The Phillies, who just saw the trade leverage in their Cole Hamels discussions undercut by the likelihood that Washington deals one of its starting pitchers
If a team interested in Hamels doesn?t like the asking price for the left-hander -- and to date, rival officials say the Phillies are asking for a boatload of prospects, while insisting that somebody else will pay Hamels' salary -- they can turn to the Nationals for a less expensive pitcher.
? Pat Gillick won?t predict whether Hamels will be with the Phillies in spring training.
Loser: The general manager(s) of the 2019-2028 Nationals
Within five years, Scherzer?s performance will likely be in decline, and the Nationals? general manager -- Rizzo, or his successor(s) -- will be left to steer around the dollars deferred in Scherzer?s contract. In other words, the credit card bill will come due at some point.
Winners: David Price, Johnny Cueto and Jordan Zimmermann
Those pitchers will likely be the elite pitchers in the free-agent market next fall. They will do very well, in light of the dollars that Scherzer got. The bar was raised, again.
? Shudders over the Scherzer deal reached Cincinnati, as Hal McCoy writes.
Winners: Baseball players, again
LeBron James is arguably the world's best-known sports star, and John Fisher of ESPN Stats & Information finds there are 26 MLB players making higher average annual salaries than LeBron.
Think about that.
Losers: The Mets and Marlins
The Marlins have loaded up during the offseason, investing big dollars in Giancarlo Stanton and trading for Martin Prado and Dee Gordon, but now have to overcome what appears to be a superteam to win the NL East. But the Marlins are in a better position than the Mets, because not only do the Mets have to try to find a way to beat the Nationals, but they may also suffer from the wrath of a fan base increasingly angry at the team?s unwillingness to have much more than a small-market payroll. The Mets are inhabitants of the best media market in the free world, with a loyal fan base built over more than a half-century -- and yet they have a payroll that will be about two-thirds the size of that of the Nationals.
In the eyes of a lot of Mets fans, that makes no sense. And they are right.
Winners: The Braves
Their decision to swap assets with short-term value -- Jason Heyward, Justin Upton and Evan Gattis -- in order to load up for 2017 looks better today, in light of how strong the Nationals appear to be. Over the next two years, Zimmermann, Fister and Stephen Strasburg are all headed for free agency, and by the start of the 2017 season, when the Braves are scheduled to open their new park, Atlanta should be positioned for a counterpunch.
? The Braves' list of prospects has been shuffled by trades, writes David O?Brien.
Loser: Any Major League Baseball official who tries to explain to Orioles owner Peter Angelos why the Nationals need more money from the MASN Network
Angelos is currently waged in a pitched legal battle with MLB over the issue, believing that he agreed to share the greater Baltimore-Washington area with the incoming Expos franchise only with the promise of a sweetheart TV contract.
Loser: The Tigers of 2015
They made a strong bid to retain Scherzer last spring, but in the end, one of the best pitchers in baseball walks away from Detroit, a team that has been in win-now mode. Dave Dombrowski told Anthony Fenech that he feels like the Tigers made a good effort.
Winners: The Tigers of 2018 and beyond
Detroit already has taken on major obligations for Miguel Cabrera and Verlander well into the future, and another whopper contract would have made the organization even more top heavy. It?s possible that the Tigers will look back on the Scherzer situation with a measure of relief.
