Game 35 - Tigers vs. Orioles - May 13, 7:05 PM, Camden Yards

[Rebbiv]

Lots of numbers are really neat. I don't consider myself "old school" because I love stats, but you can NEVER replace the most important stat for me - the FINAL score.

There is no disputing that last year's Tiger team left the park without scoring runs more often than this season's team. The number of wins they had last season that were "pile on" wins was amazing.

To summarize the important statistic.

May 13th, 2013 21-15
May 13th, 2014 23-12

Games take different turns depending on the score. Situations arise in a 3-2 game that don't in a 10-3. That's the problem with numbers. You need human appraisal as they are being generated to make them relevant for a given situation. I would contend that last year's team hit so well late in games because they were often up by large leads and facing the other team's mop-up guy or the manager left a guy to finish off the mess in those situations. It still doesn't answer for the number of days their offense was anemic or worse.

I also think pitchers hit their spots more often against the Tigers. They prepare for this team so they don't get mauled. We've seen some guys have days against the Tigers (Keuchel and Hughes come to mind) where they looked like pitchers they aren't. Do we say it is the fault of the Tigers or do we credit a pitcher now and again?

K's are up all over baseball and the patience we grew up with is a thing of the past. Remember when a guy had little chance of making the majors until his K:BB ratio was at least 1:1?

This only means something if we played the exact same teams.

2013
9-9 Away
12-6 Home
5-6 vs AL Central
4-5 @ West Coast teams (all AL)

2014
10-4 Away
13-8 Home
12-6 vs AL Central
2-3 @ West Coast teams (all NL)

7 more games this year against weaker AL Central teams and 4 less games at West coast teams make it really hard to draw conclusions.

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

This only means something if we played the exact same teams.

2013
9-9 Away
12-6 Home
5-6 vs AL Central
4-5 @ West Coast teams (all AL)

2014
10-4 Away
13-8 Home
12-6 vs AL Central
2-3 @ West Coast teams (all NL)

7 more games this year against weaker AL Central teams and 4 less games at West coast teams make it really hard to draw conclusions.

But yet your comment means something?

It would only mean something if we played the exact teams with the exact same players with the same exact amount of rest, ambient air temperature and relative humidity.

The makeup of teams from season to season and conditions will always vary, by your logic statistics are meaningless because of the innate variability. What a guy eats for breakfast may ultimately affect how he hits that night. We have to replicate those conditions before we can draw correlations.

Fact is: Tigers have been shutout fewer times this season. They have scored 1 run fewer times this season also. Like the college bowl argument: We can only play the teams on our schedule.

This season's offense can generate a run when it needs it (as your numbers showed). I contend we've seen some starters bring a level of focus that is atypical given their career numbers and success. Tipping your hat to the other team for good play is part of competition.

In 2013 the Tigers scored 43 runs in games where the margin of victory was already +4 (i.e., a 10-3 win would be +3). 17-2 against Houston on May 4th makes the runs scored number skewed.

In 2014 that number is 12. A crude number but somewhat remarkable to me given their record and poor bullpen play early in the season.

So 196 runs in 2013 would adjust to 153 and 2014 would be 157 in non-blowout games. I do contend this proves a level of consistency that is at least on par with last season if not better given the excellent late-hitting ability this team has shown above last year.

 

[Thumb]

Also, it's a message board, I'll address whoever the fuck I want.

You are the biggest Hypocrite on these boards.

You whined yesterday when I replied to you and complained I should stay out of it.

The other day you complained about the 4-month long argument about the Fister trade them in the game thread that same day, you made a comment about it.

You add almost nothing to any discussion anymore, unlike others who disagree with Rebbiv like Macinack, Tomdalton, Xero, mhughes. At least those guys try to make a case, and don't let it get personal. You just wait for a post then jump in with some lame comment, usually without ever trying to counter whatever point he was making.

I'm beginning to wonder if he ran over your dog or something.

 

[Rebbiv]

But yet your comment means something?

It would only mean something if we played the exact teams with the exact same players with the same exact amount of rest, ambient air temperature and relative humidity.

The makeup of teams from season to season and conditions will always vary, by your logic statistics are meaningless because of the innate variability. What a guy eats for breakfast may ultimately affect how he hits that night. We have to replicate those conditions before we can draw correlations.

Fact is: Tigers have been shutout fewer times this season. They have scored 1 run fewer times this season also. Like the college bowl argument: We can only play the teams on our schedule.

This season's offense can generate a run when it needs it (as your numbers showed). I contend we've seen some starters bring a level of focus that is atypical given their career numbers and success. Tipping your hat to the other team for good play is part of competition.

In 2013 the Tigers scored 43 runs in games where the margin of victory was already +4 (i.e., a 10-3 win would be +3). 17-2 against Houston on May 4th makes the runs scored number skewed.

In 2014 that number is 12. A crude number but somewhat remarkable to me given their record and poor bullpen play early in the season.

So 196 runs in 2013 would adjust to 153 and 2014 would be 157 in non-blowout games. I do contend this proves a level of consistency that is at least on par with last season if not better given the excellent late-hitting ability this team has shown above last year.

Now you're just being obtuse.

It makes a difference as to how many home and how many away games. Teams generally win more at home. It also matters to the quality of the competition. AL Central is the weaker division in the AL. It has been and still is. And those runs/shutouts can be explained by that level.

At least wait until the break to draw any conclusions.

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

Now you're just being obtuse.

It makes a difference as to how many home and how many away games. Teams generally win more at home. It also matters to the quality of the competition. AL Central is the weaker division in the AL. It has been and still is. And those runs/shutouts can be explained by that level.

At least wait until the break to draw any conclusions.

Pedantic not obtuse.

I disagree with your assertion that AL Central is weaker. Some of its teams started out hot against the rest of the league. Part of the reason for their sub-standard records is the Tigers beating them.

So shut the message board down until the break except for game threads and complaining about the Fister trade?

You analyze the information you have. They are almost to the magical 40 game mark.

 

[gotime909]

You are the biggest Hypocrite on these boards.

You whined yesterday when I replied to you and complained I should stay out of it.

The other day you complained about the 4-month long argument about the Fister trade them in the game thread that same day, you made a comment about it.

You add almost nothing to any discussion anymore, unlike others who disagree with Rebbiv like Macinack, Tomdalton, Xero, mhughes. At least those guys try to make a case, and don't let it get personal. You just wait for a post then jump in with some lame comment, usually without ever trying to counter whatever point he was making.

I'm beginning to wonder if he ran over your dog or something.

That was a shot at you for always coming to your boy's defense(which, shockingly, you did again). Hardly whining

It's his right to repeat the same shit every day, but it's also my right to call him on it. Right?

Making a comment about the fister trade is one thing. Making 500 posts about it is a whole different deal.

I've been involved in the "stat battles" in the past with you two and see how they go. Back and forth with the same fucking stats over and over and over and over and over and over and over.... Now a days you can win any battle with the amount of stats out today. It's really just a way to fucking argue for the sake of arguing. I'm sure my reputation with the rest of the posters here is pretty legit. Just because I don't agree with you two idiots doesn't mean I offer "almost nothing" to discussion.

:cheers:

 

[Rebbiv]

Pedantic not obtuse.

I disagree with your assertion that AL Central is weaker. Some of its teams started out hot against the rest of the league. Part of the reason for their sub-standard records is the Tigers beating them.

So shut the message board down until the break except for game threads and complaining about the Fister trade?

You analyze the information you have. They are almost to the magical 40 game mark.

2011-2013

vs AL East + AL West
DET 106-104 .505
CHW 104-106 .495
CLE 99-111 .471
KCR 97-113 .462
MIN 76-134 .370

vs AL Central Teams
DET 140-80 .636
CLE 111-109 .505
KCR 110-110 .500
CHW 95-125 .432
MIN 94-126 .427

vs AL Teams that aren't DET
CLE 190-185 .507
KCR 185-190 .493
CHW 181-194 .483
MIN 150-225 .400


Aside from MIN, it doesn't look like the other 3 teams are flexing their muscles against the rest of the AL when they aren't playing the Tigers.

And back to part of my point. DET has been getting a significant amount of wins from playing AL Central teams. 7 more games this year than last year. That has to mean something.

 

[gotime909]

I'm betting that Kansas City is wishing they weren't in the central this year. 5-13 vs Central 15-6 vs everyone else

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

2011-2013 Stats

And back to part of my point. DET has been getting a significant amount of wins from playing AL Central teams. 7 more games this year than last year. That has to mean something.

I was talking about the 2014 incarnation of the MLB season

The AL Central (not counting Detroit) is currently 20-13 against the East, this flies in the face of your assertion that it is the weakest division.

The AL Central (again not counting Detroit) is 9-13 against the West (the division I think is strongest in the AL if not baseball).

 

[Rebbiv]

Just to add a few tidbits.

In 2007, Johan Santana was still pitching for MIN. He faced both DET and CLE 6 times, CHW 4 times and KCR just once.

Also in 2007, Justin Verlander faced CLE and KCR 5 times, CHW 3 times and MIN two times.

Times facing Santana and Verlander, both, in 2007

CLE 11 times
CHW 7 times
KCR 6 times

Now I realize that CLE took the Central that year. But this illustrates a certain point. What do you think KCR's record would be had they faced Verlander and Santana 5 more times rather than Bonderman and Boof Bonser?