Game 74 Tigers vs. indians June 23, 2019

[turok]

Really don?t know why anyone would think Avila and the crack analytics team wouldn?t just f up a #1 pick anyway so who cares if the tigers get the #1 pick or not

The higher that the Tigers brass picks in the first couple of rounds, the less likely that they reach and/or the pick turns out to be a bust. The problems with this ballclub are mostly attributable to their low minors coaching staffs and player development, once their picks are signed and assigned. With their questionable analytics and scouting departments, its increasingly concerning when the draft gets into the rounds below each team's second pick. But for as long as these people continue to hold jobs within the organization, the better that their pick or picks in each round is/are as high as possible.

 

[lonesometiger]

so you must think that Mize is going to be a failure

1st off he on the Il, so he hurt/damage. 2nd Tigers have trouble developing players! 3rd Tigers are rebuilding, around what? 4th just how does one player make a difference? Tigers problem right now, offence does not score runs, so how does he win games?
He's in a program right now that failure is an option. Sorry to say.

 

[tomdalton22]

1st off he on the Il, so he hurt/damage. 2nd Tigers have trouble developing players! 3rd Tigers are rebuilding, around what? 4th just how does one player make a difference? Tigers problem right now, offence does not score runs, so how does he win games?
He's in a program right now that failure is an option. Sorry to say.

The Tigers are re-building...one way you re-build is to acquire new talent through the draft. The easiest way to get the best player in the draft is to pick 1st.

 

[Mitchrapp]

The Tigers are re-building...one way you re-build is to acquire new talent through the draft. The easiest way to get the best player in the draft is to pick 1st.

Many farm systems that are better than ours that don't draft one. The NYY for one, when do they ever get the top pick? The White Sox, I can't remember when they had a top pick.

 

[dale675]

I really don't want to see this team tie or set any AL or MLB record for losses in a season, if that is what it will take for the #1 pick, then I would prefer that some other team have it.

2003 was the year I graduated. Never had less of an interest in baseball than that year. With that said, 2nd place is the first loser. I'd take setting a bad record to get the 1st pick.

 

[dale675]

Many farm systems that are better than ours that don't draft one. The NYY for one, when do they ever get the top pick? The White Sox, I can't remember when they had a top pick.

He said one way, not the only way. Those teams draft pretty well, sign impact international free agents, as well as make trades that help them in the future. Most of which Detroit kinda sucks at doing. So far, it looks like we drafted well with Mize. I don't think you can make an argument that having the #1 draft pick is a bad thing. Is it a lock that they always pan out? No. But is is more likely? Yes.

 

[Mitchrapp]

He said one way, not the only way. Those teams draft pretty well, sign impact international free agents, as well as make trades that help them in the future. Most of which Detroit kinda sucks at doing. So far, it looks like we drafted well with Mize. I don't think you can make an argument that having the #1 draft pick is a bad thing. Is it a lock that they always pan out? No. But is is more likely? Yes.

He said the easiest way which I just showed is not always the case.

 

[tomdalton22]

He said the easiest way which I just showed is not always the case.

The easiest way to get the best player in a draft is to have the first pick. If you don't have the first pick, someone else has a chance to pick the best player. Also, there are a lot of industry insiders, scouting services, writers, etc. that project who should be the #1 pick. That works well for the Tigers. It's pretty obvious that they have a hard time identifying talent...let someone else determine who is the best player in the draft and draft them #1

 

[Mitchrapp]

Like 3% over 2%. All I'm saying is some very good farm systems that pick later/much later. Easiest/best way is just to draft better. And trade better.

 

[tomdalton22]

Like 3% over 2%. All I'm saying is some very good farm systems that pick later/much later. Easiest/best way is just to draft better. And trade better.

I'm talking about the easiest way to get the best player in a single draft. Why would you talk about drafting better and trading better?

 

[Mitchrapp]

I'm talking about the easiest way to get the best player in a single draft. Why would you talk about drafting better and trading better?

Because it changes per teams and years. Sometimes the consensus best pick stinks. Maybe we are talking about different things but I don't really care about grabbing the top pick.

 

[tomdalton22]

Because it changes per teams and years. Sometimes the consensus best pick stinks. Maybe we are talking about different things but I don't really care about grabbing the top pick.

yes...we are talking about two different things

 

[dale675]

He said the easiest way which I just showed is not always the case.

He said having the 1st overall pick gives you the best shot at getting the best player in the draft. Show me how that is not always the case? Surely, the top few picks in the DRAFT are the best in the DRAFT. Do those always pan out in the majors? No. But at the time of the draft, they were the best.

Picking the best guy to pan out is a totally different story....that is where the Tiger's fall behind, and teams with later picks end up with better big leaguers.

 

[byco42]

He said having the 1st overall pick gives you the best shot at getting the best player in the draft. Show me how that is not always the case? Surely, the top few picks in the DRAFT are the best in the DRAFT. Do those always pan out in the majors? No. But at the time of the draft, they were the best.

Picking the best guy to pan out is a totally different story....that is where the Tiger's fall behind, and teams with later picks end up with better big leaguers.

Usually many other teams would have taken the same player at #1 were they drafting first, so this is accurate, IMO.

 

[Rebbiv]

The success rate falls off dramatically after the first 5 picks in a draft. As stated before, in other threads, college players tend to be a more successful pick than High Schooler and position players are over pitchers.


Just #1 picks

1992 - 4YR POS = 15.9 WAR
1993 - HS POS = 117.8 WAR
1994 - 4YR PIT = 2.0 WAR
1995 - 4YR POS = 32.4 WAR
1996 - 4YR PIT = 12.9 WAR
1997 - 4YR PIT = -0.6 WAR (Matt Anderson)
1998 - 4YR POS = 18.9 WAR
1999 - HS POS = 28.3 WAR
2000 - HS POS = 42.2 WAR
2001 - HS POS = 55.0 WAR
2002 - 4YR PIT = -0.2 WAR
2003 - HS POS = 2.4 WAR
2004 - HS POS = 2.6 WAR
2005 - HS POS = 35.3 WAR
2006 - 4YR PIT = 3.5 WAR
2007 - 4YR PIT = 39.6 WAR
2008 - HS POS = 5.4 WAR
2009 - 4YR PIT = 30.0 WAR
2010 - JC POS = 28.2 WAR
2011 - 4YR PIT = 18.6 WAR
2012 - HS POS = 19.9 WAR


2013 - 4YR PIT = BUST (out of baseball)
2014 - HS PIT = Did not sign
2015 - 4YR POS = 3.9 WAR
2016 - HS POS = Minors
2017 - HS POS = Minors
2018 - 4YR PIT = Minors


Between 1992-2012, every #1 pick made it to MLB. The question is what constitutes success. Anything over 5 WAR? Or is it 10 WAR? Super Stars are usually over 30 for their career, most over 50.

Success rates and average WAR for top 5 picks:

College POS
HS POS
College PIT
HS PIT

Tiger Top 5 Picks

1990 - #2 - 4YR POS = 12.4 WAR (Tony Clark)
1997 - #1 - 4YR PIT = -0.6 WAR (Matt Anderson)
1999 - #3 - 4YR POS = -1.4 WAR (Eric Munson)
2003 - #3 - 4YR PIT = Bust WAR (Kyle Sleeth)
2004 - #2 - 4YR PIT = 66.9 WAR (Justin Verlander)

2018 = #1 - 4YR PIT = (Casey Mize)
2019 = #5 - HS POS = (Riley Greene)


1st Round Picks since 1996 (expansion of ARZ and TBR) with at least 15 WAR (Top 5)


ARZ = 5 (2)
BAL = 5 (2)
CHC = 5 (2)
OAK = 5 (1)
PHI = 5 (2)
ATL = 4 (0)
CIN = 4 (0)
HOU = 4 (2)
KCR = 4 (3)
MIA = 4 (2)
MIL = 4 (1)
SFG = 4 (1)
STL = 4 (1)
TBR = 4 (4)
TEX = 4 (1)
WSN = 4 (3)

BOS = 3 (0)
CHW = 3 (0)
CLE = 3 (0)
DET = 3 (1)
LAA = 3 (1)
LAD = 3 (0)
MIN = 3 (1)
PIT = 3 (1)
TOR = 3 (1)
COL = 2 (0)
NYM = 2 (0)
NYY = 2 (0)
SEA = 2 (0)

SDP = 0 (0)

TOTAL = 104 (32) = 30.8% in top 5 picks

Average is about 5 picks per 1st round achieve at least 15 WAR.

While there are some HS Pitchers to get to 15.0 WAR (e.g. Mark Prior), they tend to have the lowest success rate to even get to MLB, let alone 15.0 WAR.

The average career WAR for a college position player is greater than the average career WAR of a high school position player. And that is just those that make it to MLB. College players have a greater success than high school.

Basically the same applies to pitchers.