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mhughes0021
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Kiper:
1Luke JoeckelKansas City Chiefs (2-14)COLLEGE: Texas A&MAGE: 21HT: 6-6WT: 310POS: OTAnalysis: At this point the Chiefs could be weighing at least a handful of players for this spot, if they stay here. As of now, at No. 1, a quarterback shouldn't be in the mix. So I think fans needs to consider that K.C. could be looking to secure the best available player here, period. From there, they either consider a QB with their first pick in Round 2, or perhaps the option of trading into the late first to mazimize value. As for Joeckel, at this time he probably represents the best guaranteed production on the pick value. A gifted technician at left tackle, he is already capable of handling good NFL pass-rushers, and could hold down the position for 10 years. Regardless, the Chiefs will be thinking about total draft value and strategy, not just a single pick here.
PLAYER CARD
2Damontre Moore *Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14)COLLEGE: Texas A&MAGE: 20HT: 6-4WT: 250POS: DE
Analysis: I'm staying with this selection. The Jaguars were again arguably among the worst pass-rushing teams in the NFL in 2012, and need a guaranteed difference-maker. Moore is that kind of player. I've had a pass-rusher as a top need for this franchise going on four years, and Moore checks that off the list. He's an exceptionally productive defensive end prospect with very good quickness, long arms and elite closing burst as a rusher. He will get to the quarterback, period. The Jags should be a better team in 2013, but it's not just based on whether they get better at quarterback.
PLAYER CARD
3Star LotuleleiOakland Raiders (4-12)COLLEGE: UtahAGE: 23HT: 6-4WT: 320POS: DT
Analysis: The Raiders are really compelled to take the best player available. They're desperate for immediate impact, and Lotulelei is one of those players that makes everybody around him better. He demands multiple blockers or he'll collapse the pocket, and his instincts, vision, bust and power effect both the pass and the run. Oakland also has needs at linebacker, wide receiver and cornerback, but outside of maybe Dee Milliner, I don't think the Raiders can match the value of this pick, much less improve on it.
PLAYER CARD
4Dee Milliner *Philadelphia Eagles (4-12)COLLEGE: AlabamaAGE: 21HT: 6-1WT: 199POS: CB
Analysis: I noted in the previous mock that on a per-play basis, rookie Brandon Boykin might have been the best player in the Eagles secondary toward the end of the season. The Eagles could see a number of personnel changes with the new regime, but they can't afford to fall off significantly in the secondary in a division with Eli Manning, Robert Griffin III and Tony Romo. You might expect Chip Kelly to score points, but he's always put a great emphasis on his defense too. Milliner has elite grades in terms of awareness and ball skills, and he's a physical corner who can push wideouts off routes. And he can flat-out tackle.
PLAYER CARD
5Jarvis Jones *Detroit Lions (4-12)COLLEGE: GeorgiaAGE: 23HT: 6-3WT: 241POS: LB
Analysis: On Tuesday, Detroit cut veteran Kyle Vanden Bosch to clear more cap space. Jones isn't the pure 4-3 defensive end to fill that void, but he'll certainly upgrade the pass rush. No, he's not a perfect fit in the current system, but Gunther Cunningham will be thrilled to scheme with Jones in mind. Roll the tape, and regardless of the how teams tried to stop Jones, you see them fail. He led the nation in sacks even though he was a blocking target, used great leverage to hold up as a run defender and in every case, was simply relentless. Sure, Detroit could also use Milliner if available, but a great pass defense starts with pressure.
PLAYER CARD
6Bjoern Werner *Cleveland Browns (5-11)COLLEGE: Florida St.AGE: 22HT: 6-4WT: 255POS: DE
Analysis: The Browns regressed on defense in 2012, and the pass rush was a culprit. This was, by every standard, a bottom-10 unit, and they simply need to add talent. If they want the best player available at this spot, and a guy who fills a void, it might be Werner by the time we get to April. In fact, by then he could be expected to go higher. A late arrival to football, he has a high ceiling, but already has a decent portfolio of pass-rush skills. What's great about Werner isn't just the explosiveness as a pass-rusher, it's also his awareness. He keeps his eyes up and disrupts passing lanes. He's a good fit for the Browns.
PLAYER CARD
7Eric FisherArizona Cardinals (5-11)COLLEGE: Central MichiganAGE: 22HT: 6-8WT: 305POS: OT
Analysis: This is one of the spots where you could see a QB come off the board, but at this stage a QB taken at No. 7 would be a significant reach. Until we see major strides by one of the QB options, Arizona is better off adding a key piece it can start right away and looking for a QB in Round 2, or trading up into the late first. And remember, the Cardinals may have moved on a QB in free agency or via a trade by April. Fisher isn't a big name, but he's as a good as any tackle in this class outside of Joeckel. Arizona was a train wreck at tackle for much of 2012, and even with some young guys on the roster, they need to consider a better option if available.
PLAYER CARD
8Alec Ogletree *Buffalo Bills (6-10)COLLEGE: GeorgiaAGE: 21HT: 6-3WT: 237POS: LB
Analysis: Sticking with a linebacker here, but going with the higher ceiling. The Bills really need help at interior linebacker, where Kelvin Sheppard is merely adequate. Ogletree was at one time a safety, and you see those kinds of instincts when he plays, because he simply flies to the ball. He's a great pursuit player and a guy who will shoot gaps and make stops in the backfield, but that's also because he has really good instincts. A big key with Ogletree is versatility. There's no reason he can't work on the edge, or inside. He has the ceiling of a player who can do it all.
PLAYER CARD
9Dion JordanNew York Jets (6-10)COLLEGE: OregonAGE: 22HT: 6-7WT: 243POS: OLB
Analysis: Yes, they really need skill position upgrades, with wide receiver, tight end and running back all areas of need. But the value is an issue, so if the Jets don't trade down, they're better served going with the best player available at another position of need. I'm a big fan of the interior, with Muhammad Wilkerson and Quinton Coples in place, but the Jets could really use an edge rusher. Jordan is light, but he has long arms, great athleticism and I think can be a guy they don't need to shuttle in and out depending on downs and matchups. He has star potential, and the pass rush gets some help.
PLAYER CARD
10Barkevious Mingo *Tennessee Titans (6-10)COLLEGE: LSUAGE: 22HT: 6-5WT: 242POS: DE
Analysis: Mingo sits on that fine line you can find in this range of the draft. He has the natural skills and athleticism of a devastating pass-rusher in the mold of an Aldon Smith -- those guys don't last into the teens. But there's a small bust potential too if his technique doesn't get better. The guy is long, fast, has a great burst and can flat-out turn the corner. But he also needs to play with better leverage, take on blockers more effectively and find ways to simply be more productive. When you watch Mingo at his best, closing on a QB, he looks too good to pass up. Tennessee needs the pass-rush help, and Mingo could develop into a star.
PLAYER CARD
11Jonathan CooperSan Diego Chargers (7-9)COLLEGE: North CarolinaAGE: 23HT: 6-3WT: 298POS: G
Analysis: I wasn't sure exactly where San Diego would go, but as I talked to people there and also went back to the tape myself, I was surprised at how urgent the interior line situation has become. The run-blocking in particular was a total mess, and it put too much pressure on the passing game. The passing game, of course, also suffered from inconsistent blocking. We'll see how free agency plays out, but I think the Chargers could be ready to focus on problems up front. Cooper fits the bill, can start immediately and should be able to upgrade this unit.
PLAYER CARD
12Cordarrelle Patterson *Miami Dolphins (7-9)COLLEGE: TennesseeAGE: 21HT: 6-3WT: 205POS: WR
Analysis: This is where I projected Patterson the first time around, and I still like it. The question is whether Patterson will still be around this far down the board. The Dolphins need pass-catching help for Ryan Tannehill, mainly of the impact variety. They need a legit matchup problem. Patterson had just one year in the SEC after spending two years at the junior-college level, but he's got the skill set you want for a pick this high. Very good hands, he can beat cornerbacks with his height and strength, and he'll beat defenders for 50-50 balls. He can hurt you after the catch, and the value makes sense.
PLAYER CARD
13Manti Te'oTampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)COLLEGE: Notre DameAGE: 22HT: 6-2WT: 255POS: LB
Analysis: For a pure interior linebacker, Te'o is still the best one on the board. I pushed Ogletree ahead of him based on versatility. I know there will still be questions on the off-the-field stuff, but for the most part Te'o is a known football commodity among NFL evaluators, and he's also considered a safe player to take for the specific goal of having him work inside or on the strongside at linebacker. Tampa Bay could take Te'o and go either way, but he'd represent an upgrade there, particularly on run defense. That said, this is also a LB who was second nationally in INTs, so he knows how to move in coverage as well.
PLAYER CARD
14Sheldon Richardson *Carolina Panthers (7-9)COLLEGE: MissouriAGE: 21HT: 6-4WT: 295POS: DT
Analysis: With Luke Kuechly in place to shore up the linebacking corps, the Panthers should be looking up front; they need a talent upgrade on the defensive line. Richardson is just incredibly active, piling up tackles at a position where that's not easy to do. He's quick off the snap, shows great strength in short-yardage situations and uses his hands to get off blocks and make plays. The guy can even drop into coverage and will destroy screens. If Patterson is here, that's an option, and this could be a reach spot for a guy like Keenan Allen, but they should be thrilled with an impact DT.
PLAYER CARD
15Sharrif Floyd *New Orleans Saints (7-9)COLLEGE: FloridaAGE: 20HT: 6-3WT: 303POS: DT
Analysis: Few players finished the season on a higher note. Floyd was a star out of high school, and has moved around a bit on the defensive line. Because he has some decent pass-rushing skills, and a lot of quickness for his frame, Florida had him over the tackle and the benefit was clear. Floyd had great lower-body strength and can drive O-lineman into the pocket, but he also has powerful hands and moves well to disengage and come free. The Saints are desparate for help on the defensive line, and Floyd can provide balance, as a big, powerful pass-rusher who knows how to identify and use leverage against the run.
PLAYER CARD
16Lane JohnsonSt. Louis Rams (7-8-1)COLLEGE: OklahomaAGE: 22HT: 6-7WT: 303POS: OT
Analysis: The Rams can afford to go a few different ways here because they have that other first-round pick. I think the offensive line has to be a priority at one of these spots. Johnson is a steady tackle who upgrades the team on the right side immediately and has the ceiling of a very good NFL left tackle. He has the long arms you look for, gets into good position immediately and slides really easily to derail speed-rushers. The Rams have skill-position questions, and those could be answered here. But they need to block better, period, or it won't matter how much skill they have.
PLAYER CARD
17Ezekiel AnsahPittsburgh Steelers (8-8)COLLEGE: BYUAGE: 23HT: 6-6WT: 272POS: LB
Analysis: Sticking with Ansah here. You hand an exceptional physical talent with a high ceiling but plenty of development required to Dick LeBeau. When that's the equation, where's the downside? What I think is particularly interesting about this situation is the idea that Ansah could ultimately work out as a 3-4 DE. Ansah might lack polish as a pass-rusher, but he has a lot of power both with raw strength and because he has such a burst, can rush with leverage and also utilize his quickness in one-on-one matchups. The Steelers must get younger on defense and, as I said before, Ansah makes sense given their track record of development.
PLAYER CARD
18Chance WarmackDallas Cowboys (8-8)COLLEGE: AlabamaAGE: 21HT: 6-3WT: 320POS: G
Analysis: Follow my Big Board week to week and you're probably surprised I could fathom a situation where Warmack is still around at No. 18. But remember, the mock also takes into account where I hear teams are valuing guys, and in the case of a player like Warmack, the positional value aspect hurts him as a guard. Make no mistake, he's a stud, a dominant guard who makes your offensive line better the second he signs his contract. But he's staying inside, period, limiting his shot at the top 10. Dallas could certainly use an upgrade at guard, and I don't think the Cowboys can pass up Warmack at this spot on the board if he's available.
PLAYER CARD
19Zach Ertz *New York Giants (9-7)COLLEGE: StanfordAGE: 21HT: 6-6WT: 252POS: TE
Analysis: The Giants got passable tight end play in 2012 from Martellus Bennett, but they could really use a more complete, dynamic player at the position. Bennett could be gone by April, for starters, and they really need to outfit Eli Manning with a difference-maker at the position. Ertz is a good one, a hands-catcher who can really move at over 250 pounds. Giants fans wondering about the ceiling on this kid should watch the Rose Bowl. He can beat teams up the seam, work the edges and use his size and strength to shield defenders and create matchup problems all over the field. He's ready to play now.
PLAYER CARD
20D.J. Fluker *Chicago Bears (10-6)COLLEGE: AlabamaAGE: 21HT: 6-6WT: 335POS: OT
Analysis: A fourth-year junior, Fluker was allowed to participate at the Senior Bowl, and he took advantage. He has great size, and has extremely long arms he can use to move and frustrate pass-rushers. It's possible he was overlooked a little during the season because the level of play along the Bama offensive line was so good. I think when Marc Trestman starts rolling the tape on the Bears, he's going to see that the offensive line simply has to see a talent infusion. Fluker could be the best one the Bears have by the end of his rookie year.
PLAYER CARD
21Kenny VaccaroCincinnati Bengals (10-6)COLLEGE: TexasAGE: 21HT: 6-1WT: 219POS: S
Analysis: This is just a big need spot for the Bengals. Reggie Nelson rated out pretty well for them, but the drop-off is significant from there. What you get in Vaccaro is a player who upgrades at either free or strong safety. Given Nelson's presence, Vaccaro should step in and be the Week 1 starter at strong safety. The Bengals need help at linebacker, and Vaccaro can actually offer that kind of presence, because he's a physical defender who can play in the box and defend the run effectively, or drop into coverage. He's a solid value here and fills a need.
PLAYER CARD
22Keenan Allen *St. Louis Rams (from WAS) (7-8-1)COLLEGE: CaliforniaAGE: 20HT: 6-3WT: 210POS: WR
Analysis: The Rams lock down some blocking help, then get a wide receiver who can help them immediately. That would be a productive first round. It's possible I've worried too much about how well Allen will run, because aside from what should just be a pedestrian 40 time, he can do everything else well. He has a prototypical build, long enough to be taller than most corners, but lean and strong enough where his burst is very good, and quickness out of breaks isn't a question. His hands are very strong, and dependable, and he works back to the ball. A one-time safety, he has game smarts and helps his QB. Sam Bradford will benefit from his presence.
PLAYER CARD
23Sylvester WilliamsMinnesota Vikings (10-6)COLLEGE: North CarolinaAGE: 24HT: 6-3WT: 315POS: DT
Analysis: Wide receiver is also a big need, but the Vikings might not be able to pass on great value if the board breaks this way. And consider what they have on the defensive line -- namely, a few age questions. By Week 1, Kevin Williams will be 33, Jared Allen 31 and Brian Robison 30. Basically, regardless of where they choose to find impact on the defensive line, it can be a useful commodity, and soon. In Williams, they get a player mature enough to contribute immediately. He gets down the line well and is solid against the run, but his burst off the snap can wreck pockets.
PLAYER CARD
24Johnthan BanksIndianapolis Colts (11-5)COLLEGE: Mississippi St.AGE: 23HT: 6-2WT: 188POS: CB
Analysis: The Colts are in a range where they might get some phone calls for potential trades. I can imagine teams drafting early in the second round moving here to get a QB in a decent value range. If Indy stays, the Colts can go a few different ways. If they really like an O-lineman here, I think that's a smart play because they simply have to do more to protect the future of the franchise. But we know the defense could use help in a few places, and the chance to take the second-best CB in the draft is something that could make sense here. Banks can start early and help this defense.
PLAYER CARD
25Johnathan Hankins *Seattle Seahawks (11-5)COLLEGE: Ohio St.AGE: 21HT: 6-3WT: 335POS: DT
Analysis: Another good spot for someone to call and trade up. As for the pick, if Seattle wants a penetrator on the interior of the D-line, Hankins really isn't that guy. He doesn't have the burst to split gaps and create havoc behind the line of scrimmage. What he can do is occupy multiple blockers, help other rushers find space and better matchups and make the Seahawks more difficult to run against as he holds up blockers intent on getting a body in front of Seattle's tandem of great LBs in K.J. Wright and Bobby Wagner. Hankins is an impact guy when his motor is running and will particularly make a run defense sturdier immediately.
PLAYER CARD
26Eddie Lacy *Green Bay Packers (11-5)COLLEGE: AlabamaAGE: 22HT: 6-0WT: 219POS: RB
Analysis: I'll go a little bit out on a limb here, but I think by the time the NFL combine is over Lacy may be at the top of a number of draft boards at running back. And for a franchise that has lacked dynamic play at the position for way too long, Lacy could fill a need, allowing them to do more than simply "show" the run, but to gain some legitimate value out of it. Lacy has really good vision, balance and more shiftiness than many saw because the Bama O-line was so good at clearing a clean path. He has power to push the pile in short-yardage situations, and people will find he's an underrated catcher of the football. He's no lock here, but I like the fit at this early stage.
PLAYER CARD
27Quinton PattonHouston Texans (12-4)COLLEGE: Louisiana TechAGE: 22HT: 6-2WT: 198POS: WR
Analysis: Houston needs to find another weapon for Matt Schaub. Andre Johnson will be 32 this summer, and if he's out of the lineup, the drop-off is significant. If you're a fan that hasn't seen anything from Patton, roll the tape from his game against Texas A&M. All he did to the Aggies was 21 catches, 233 yards and 4 TD catches. Simply put, Patton was really, really hard to cover in 2012, and when he went to the Senior Bowl against some of the top competition in the draft, he didn't get any easier to cover. Love the way he release from pressure, can set defenders up and work the sides or the middle of the field, using long arms to snatch the ball away from his body. A rising player meets a good fit.
PLAYER CARD
28Kawann ShortDenver Broncos (13-3)COLLEGE: PurdueAGE: 23HT: 6-3WT: 312POS: DT
Analysis: Right now Justin Bannan is listed atop the Denver depth chart at nose tackle, and Bannan is 33 with no guarantee of returning in 2013. Insert Short, who can use leverage and strength to eat up blockers, and also has a knack for using long arms to swat passes. The question with Short has been whether he can generate consistent impact play to play, but when he's at his best, he can really free up pass-rushers and linebackers. Denver could also give corner a look here, where a player like Xavier Rhodes could be available.
PLAYER CARD
29Matt Elam *New England Patriots (12-4)COLLEGE: FloridaAGE: 21HT: 5-11WT: 203POS: S
Analysis: What you get from Elam is versatility at safety. He's adept at sitting back and playing center field, using his speed and instincts to make plays in the passing game. But when it's called for, Elam can surface at the line of scrimmage and even attack the backfield. He's not a big safety, but gains in quickness and range what he lacks in size, and he simply isn't shy about taking on bigger ball-carriers, or lining up hits. New England might have found some solutions at corner, but the Patriots could use another safety, and Bill Belichick will find Elam's versatility useful.
PLAYER CARD
30Tyler Eifert *Atlanta Falcons (13-3)COLLEGE: Notre DameAGE: 22HT: 6-6WT: 248POS: TE
Analysis: If all the begging pays off, and Tony Gonzalez does in fact return in 2013, the presence of Eifert would still be valuable. If Gonzalez is back, you add a player that can contribute immediately, who can be moved all over the formation and along with Julio Jones and Roddy White, cause matchup problems for defenses in multiple ways. If Gonzalez does come back, Eifert gets a year to learn from the master, and contribute plenty in the mean time. The Falcons do need help with the pass rush, but it would be hard to pass on Eifert at this spot with the presumption that Gonzalez is headed for retirement.
PLAYER CARD
31John JenkinsSan Francisco 49ers (11-4-1)COLLEGE: GeorgiaAGE: 23HT: 6-2WT: 358POS: DT
Analysis: The current construct of the Niners' roster really offers them a great chance to maximize value, and getting a player like Jenkins this far down the board would represent a lot of value. I also think San Francisco should be conscious of depth and age on the defensive line. We saw how diminished the pass rush was when Justin Smith wasn't healthy, and that's because Smith simply eats up blockers. Jenkins can do the same, though he's certainly no proxy for Smith. But at 359 pounds, he can really move.
PLAYER CARD
32Kevin Minter *Baltimore Ravens (10-6)COLLEGE: LSUAGE: 22HT: 6-2WT: 244POS: LB
Analysis: Word is the Ravens will be down an interior linebacker next season, and they should be thrilled if Minter is still around at this point. In fact, I can see Minter climbing higher, and maybe occupying the spot where Te'o goes, pushing Te'o down into this range. Minter is instinctive, shoots gaps, can play sideline to sideline and is particularly hard for blockers to line up. He's a steady tackler, and a good quarterback for your defense. The Ravens need a new one, finally.
McShay:
Kansas City ChiefsRecord: 2-14
Star Lotulelei, DT, UtahThe biggest question at the top is whether the Chiefs think highly enough of any of the 2013 quarterback prospects to go in that direction with this pick. The second question is whether OT Branden Albert will return to Kansas City. Assuming the answers to those questions are no and yes, respectively, Lotulelei makes most sense. The Chiefs have a need for a 5-technique (DE) in their 3-4 scheme, and he is an ideal fit. Lotulelei has great size and natural tools, especially strength, but he is not just a space-eater. He makes plays versus the run and can help collapse the pocket as an inside power rusher.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Record: 2-14
Bjoern Werner*, DE, Florida StateThe Jaguars might also hesitate to take a quarterback this early, and they need to improve a pass rush that had a league-low 20 sacks last season. Werner is a good overall player who is also strong against the run and would fit well opposite DE Jason Babin, but is he worth this pick? Texas A&M DE Damontre Moore* is a better athlete but could slip a bit due to growing concerns about maturity.
Oakland Raiders
Record: 4-12
Dee Milliner*, CB, AlabamaNew offensive coordinator Greg Olson brings a power, man-blocking running game to Oakland, which is not a great fit for Texas A&M OT Luke Joeckel. Oakland also needs an upgrade along the defensive front, but with Lotulelei and Werner both off the board Milliner make the most sense. He is the most complete cornerback in the 2013 class and would address the team's most glaring weakness.
Philadelphia EaglesRecord: 4-12
Luke Joeckel*, OT, Texas A&MWest Virginia QB Geno Smith is a possibility here, but Joeckel is one of the top three overall prospects in this class and would be tough to pass up. New head coach Chip Kelly favors smaller, more athletic linemen like Joeckel, who would take care of a desperate need for an overall talent and depth upgrade along the offensive line. The question is whether the Eagles would feel comfortable moving Joeckel to the right side to accommodate returning LT Jason Peters.
Detroit LionsRecord: 4-12
Dion Jordan, DE, OregonCornerback is the Lions' biggest need, but with Milliner off the board the defensive line becomes the focus. With Kyle Vanden Bosch having been released and LDE Cliff Avril an unrestricted free agent, Detroit has a need at end. There is simply too much young talent at defensive tackle to let things deteriorate at end. Jordan is an underrated talent with the length and athleticism to develop into an impact starter in NFL, and he's shown the versatility to play multiple roles along the front seven.
Cleveland Browns
Record: 5-11
Barkevious Mingo*, DE, LSUNew defensive coordinator Ray Horton will run a versatile scheme that likely will employ a base 3-4 front, and while the Browns have good depth along the defensive front they need more talented edge rushers. Mingo fits the bill. He is raw, but is the fastest, most athletic edge rusher in the class and could be part as a disruptive perimeter duo with Jabaal Sheard.
Arizona CardinalsRecord: 5-11
Eric Fisher, OT, Central MichiganThe Cardinals have a glaring need at quarterback, and with new offensive coordinator Bruce Arians bringing a vertical attack to Arizona that makes NC State QB Mike Glennon the best fit there. But he might not be worth the pick. The Cards' No. 2 need is at offensive tackle, and Fisher has the feet, length and balance to move into the starting role at left tackle. That would allow aging, injury-riddled Levi Brown to move to the right side, where he is a better fit.
Buffalo BillsRecord: 6-10
Geno Smith, QB, West VirginiaSmith has had some trouble in bad weather, which is clearly a concern for Buffalo, but he is a good fit in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett's version of the West Coast offense. When he's on his game, Smith's mechanics, smarts and confidence are impressive. Where he lands is perhaps the most intriguing storyline leading up to draft day, with Kansas City, Jacksonville and Philadelphia all possibilities in the top five.
New York JetsRecord: 6-10
Jarvis Jones*, OLB, GeorgiaThe Jets have one of the most depleted rosters in the NFL right now, but they're not going to find an answer to their quarterback problem in this scenario. That means finding a competent right tackle, a young pass-rusher (Calvin Pace likely to be cut) are at the top of the priority list. Jones would fit the bill as a pass-rusher. He's versatile, closes quickly and looks to jar the ball loose when he gets to quarterbacks or ball carriers.
Tennessee TitansRecord: 6-10
Chance Warmack, G, AlabamaDefensive end is a strong possibility, especially with talented rushers like Mingo, Jordan and Moore possibly available. However, Warmack is the best guard prospect in a decade and would help solidify the offensive line in front of young QB Jake Locker. Warmack has an elite combination of strength, mobility and consistency, and he would be the perfect successor to Steve Hutchinson. The Titans are strong at OT with Michael Roos and David Stewart coming back, and Warmack would be a great fit inside.
San Diego ChargersRecord: 7-9
Lane Johnson, OT, OklahomaLeft tackle is the team's top need, and with the Chargers likely moving to a zone-blocking scheme, Johnson is a perfect fit. He could improve his overall strength and hand use, but Johnson has good mobility and can quickly develop into a solid pass protector for QB Philip Rivers, who has taken a beating in recent years. Current San Diego OT Jared Gaither lacks mental and physical toughness, and the team should strongly consider parting ways with him to make room for a player like Johnson.
Miami DolphinsRecord: 7-9
Kenny Vaccaro, S, TexasDolphins fans would likely prefer to see the team find a solution at left tackle (assuming Jake Long moves on) or a wide receiver who can threaten defenses. However, Vaccaro is one of the 10 best overall prospects in the class. He has the athleticism to hold up well against slot receivers and give Miami the kind of versatile playmaker it needs in the secondary.
Tampa Bay BuccaneersRecord: 7-9
Damontre Moore, DE, Texas A&MThe Bucs finished last in the NFC with just 27 sacks last season and have plenty of questions along the defensive line. Moore has the athleticism and competitiveness you look for in a pass-rusher, and also the frame to develop into a good every-down player. He comes with some character baggage and could slip out of the top 10, and would be a good find for Tampa Bay with this pick.
Carolina PanthersRecord: 7-9
Sharrif Floyd, DT, FloridaCarolina is much stronger versus the pass than the run, and the team hasn't used a first- or second-round pick on a defensive tackle since taking Kris Jenkins in the first round in 2001. Floyd made huge improvements in terms of hand use and strength, and he also brings versatility and playmaking ability to the table. The arrow is pointing up in a big way for Floyd, who I recently moved up to the No. 7 overall spot on my board.
New Orleans SaintsRecord: 7-9
Ezekiel Ansah, DE/OLB, BYUNew Orleans is moving to a 3-4 scheme and can live with its inside linebackers and defensive ends, but the Saints need edge rushers and a true 3-4 nose tackle. With no pick in the second round, New Orleans could be interested in the scheme versatility Ansah provides. He can play the 5-technique and rush the quarterback off the edge, and while he's not a pure speed rusher Ansah has shown the ability to use speed-to-power moves to track down the quarterback from the perimeter.
St. Louis Rams
Record: 7-8-1
Cordarrelle Patterson*, WR, TennesseeOffensive tackle is the team's top need, but with Joeckel, Fisher and Johnson off the board there is not a good fit available. This is a bit high for any receiver in this class in my opinion, but Patterson is going to rise simply because of his elite skill set. He is raw as a route-runner, but is big and physical enough to get off press coverage and his speed and elusiveness make him a huge threat after the catch. Patterson would be a great weapon for young QB Sam Bradford.
Pittsburgh SteelersRecord: 8-8
Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio StatePittsburgh needs an heir apparent for current NT Casey Hampton, who is expected to leave as a free agent. There's depth at the position with Steve McLendon and Alameda Ta'amu, but neither appears to be the long-term answer. This might be a bit early for Hankins in my opinion, but some feel he grades out perfectly in the middle of Round 1. Regardless, you can't coach his size and ability to anchor in the middle against the run.
Dallas CowboysRecord: 8-8
Sheldon Richardson, DT, MissouriRichardson fills a top need and is a perfect fit as 3-technique in the 4-3 scheme of new defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin. He lacks ideal size and strength, but Richardson has elite first-step quickness, change-of-direction skills and range to penetrate and disrupt plays.
New York GiantsRecord: 9-7
Alec Ogletree*, LB, GeorgiaThe Giants could also address needs at offensive tackle, cornerback, tight end or defensive en here, but if Ogletree's character checks out he is a steal this late in the first round. He is one if the best pound-for-pound athletes in the class and has the range to chase plays from sideline to sideline.
Chicago Bears
Record: 10-6
Manti Te'o, ILB, Notre DameLeft tackle is the Bears' biggest need, but they cannot afford to miss at that position again after whiffing on the likes of Gabe Carimi and Chris Williams. Any tackle still on the board would be a reach here, and if Chicago elects to let 35-year old MLB Brian Urlacher walk in free agency, Te'o would be an interesting replacement with his three-down ability.
Cincinnati BengalsRecord: 10-6
Eddie Lacy*, RB, AlabamaThis is too high for Lacy in my opinion, but some believe he's worth a top-20 pick and if Cincinnati has a high enough grade on him it would make sense from a needs standpoint. I would rather see the Bengals address a different position, but they've used so many early-round picks on players at key positions (QB, OL, WR, DL, CB, TE) in recent years that they might be able to afford a luxury pick like this. Defensive end could also be an option if the right player were available.
St. Louis Rams (From 10-6 WAS)Record: 7-8-1
Sylvester Williams, DT, North CarolinaWilliams lost weight, got healthy and improved his quickness as a senior. He gets off the ball well and can disrupt things along the interior, and would add valuable depth in the middle. Alabama OT D.J. Fluker would be a reach at this point, but he might be in play for the Ram's need at right tackle.
Minnesota Vikings
Record: 10-6
Blidi Wreh-Wilson, CB, ConnecticutMinnesota has options here, and a big receiver like California's Keenan Allen might make sense. However, Wreh-Wilson is a value pick at a key position and the Vikings need another talented young corner to go with Chris Cook and Josh Robinson. Wreh-Wilson is one of the most underrated prospects in the class. He plays under control, has good speed and excellent balance, and also supports the run well.
Indianapolis Colts
Record: 11-5
Johnthan Banks*, CB, Miss. St.The defensive front seven and the offensive line will certainly be in play here, but the Colts need to find some difference makers in the secondary. Banks has good size, is an instinctive cover corner, and shows toughness and outstanding ball skills. He notched 16 career picks at Mississippi State, including three he returned for scores.
Seattle SeahawksRecord: 11-5
Sam Montgomery*, DE, LSUSeattle's defense was strong overall in 2012, but DE Chris Clemons tore his ACL late in the season and Bruce Irvin is at his best as a sub-package rusher. Montgomery has the size and strength to start opposite Red Bryant and help beef up Seattle's run defense.
Green Bay PackersRecord: 11-5
Johnathan Jenkins, DT, GeorgiaThe Packers would like to find a left tackle in the first round, but there are none available worth the pick in this scenario. They can also address their need at running back in the second or third round. Nose tackle is not a pressing need, but it's tough to find massive pluggers with some mobility like Jenkins. He and B.J. Raji would give Green Bay versatility along its defensive front, and Jenkins could bolster a run defense that ranked in the bottom third of the NFL in yards per carry allowed at 4.5.
Houston TexansRecord: 12-4
Keenan Allen, WR, CaliforniaThe Texans need more legitimate pass-catching options outside of Pro Bowl WR Andre Johnson. Allen lacks elite top-end speed, but he's a great athlete with a good frame, and his ball skills are much-improved from early in his career. He would give QB Matt Schaub another quality option and help open up some room for Johnson.
Denver BroncosRecord: 13-3
Kawann Short, DT, PurdueDenver could opt for a slot receiver who could give QB Peyton Manning another weapon, but the Broncos need to beef up the interior of their defensive line. Short is a strong run defender with a quick first step and a powerful upper body. The biggest knock on him is his inconsistent motor, but you don't see many guys loafing it in Denver now that Peyton is in town.
New England PatriotsRecord: 12-4
Jonathan Cooper, G, North CarolinaThis is a pure value pick. Cooper is a stud, the most mobile offensive line prospects in the class and a player with a chance to become an elite interior linemen in the NFL. Patriots fans surely want to see a WR with this pick and Allen or Tennessee's Justin Hunter would fit the bill, or perhaps a slot weapon like West Virginia's Tavon Austin. Cooper is an absolute steal if he lasts this long, though, especially given the durability issues current G Logan Mankins has dealt with in recent seasons.
Atlanta FalconsRecord: 13-3
Zach Ertz*, TE, StanfordFuture Hall of Fame TE Tony Gonzalez has announced he will retire, and Ertz is the top-rated tight end on our board. He doesn't have elite speed, but he is a good athlete who knows how to separate from coverage, and can make tough catches over his head and in traffic.
San Francisco 49ersRecord: 11-4-1
Justin Hunter*, WR, TennesseeNose tackle is a possibility here, but wide receiver is a legitimate need for the 49ers with both Randy Moss and Ted Ginn scheduled to hit free agency. The team would like A.J. Jenkins to become a difference-maker in the slot, but San Francisco needs another outside weapon who can take advantage of QB Colin Kaepernick's strong arm. Hunter's hands are a bit inconsistent, but he is a smooth athlete who runs good routes and can make plays downfield.
Baltimore RavensRecord: 10-6
Jesse Williams, DT, AlabamaThe newly crowned Super Bowl champs would love to find a future left tackle to groom, but probably won't with the last pick in the first round. Possible replacements for MLB Ray Lewis and S Ed Reed might also be reaches at this point. General manager Ozzie Newsome is an Alabama guy and knows Williams well. He's not flashy, but Williams is the kind of big, tough, selfless defensive linemen who can occupy blockers and make average linebackers and safeties look much better as run defenders.
1Luke JoeckelKansas City Chiefs (2-14)COLLEGE: Texas A&MAGE: 21HT: 6-6WT: 310POS: OTAnalysis: At this point the Chiefs could be weighing at least a handful of players for this spot, if they stay here. As of now, at No. 1, a quarterback shouldn't be in the mix. So I think fans needs to consider that K.C. could be looking to secure the best available player here, period. From there, they either consider a QB with their first pick in Round 2, or perhaps the option of trading into the late first to mazimize value. As for Joeckel, at this time he probably represents the best guaranteed production on the pick value. A gifted technician at left tackle, he is already capable of handling good NFL pass-rushers, and could hold down the position for 10 years. Regardless, the Chiefs will be thinking about total draft value and strategy, not just a single pick here.
PLAYER CARD
2Damontre Moore *Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14)COLLEGE: Texas A&MAGE: 20HT: 6-4WT: 250POS: DE
Analysis: I'm staying with this selection. The Jaguars were again arguably among the worst pass-rushing teams in the NFL in 2012, and need a guaranteed difference-maker. Moore is that kind of player. I've had a pass-rusher as a top need for this franchise going on four years, and Moore checks that off the list. He's an exceptionally productive defensive end prospect with very good quickness, long arms and elite closing burst as a rusher. He will get to the quarterback, period. The Jags should be a better team in 2013, but it's not just based on whether they get better at quarterback.
PLAYER CARD
3Star LotuleleiOakland Raiders (4-12)COLLEGE: UtahAGE: 23HT: 6-4WT: 320POS: DT
Analysis: The Raiders are really compelled to take the best player available. They're desperate for immediate impact, and Lotulelei is one of those players that makes everybody around him better. He demands multiple blockers or he'll collapse the pocket, and his instincts, vision, bust and power effect both the pass and the run. Oakland also has needs at linebacker, wide receiver and cornerback, but outside of maybe Dee Milliner, I don't think the Raiders can match the value of this pick, much less improve on it.
PLAYER CARD
4Dee Milliner *Philadelphia Eagles (4-12)COLLEGE: AlabamaAGE: 21HT: 6-1WT: 199POS: CB
Analysis: I noted in the previous mock that on a per-play basis, rookie Brandon Boykin might have been the best player in the Eagles secondary toward the end of the season. The Eagles could see a number of personnel changes with the new regime, but they can't afford to fall off significantly in the secondary in a division with Eli Manning, Robert Griffin III and Tony Romo. You might expect Chip Kelly to score points, but he's always put a great emphasis on his defense too. Milliner has elite grades in terms of awareness and ball skills, and he's a physical corner who can push wideouts off routes. And he can flat-out tackle.
PLAYER CARD
5Jarvis Jones *Detroit Lions (4-12)COLLEGE: GeorgiaAGE: 23HT: 6-3WT: 241POS: LB
Analysis: On Tuesday, Detroit cut veteran Kyle Vanden Bosch to clear more cap space. Jones isn't the pure 4-3 defensive end to fill that void, but he'll certainly upgrade the pass rush. No, he's not a perfect fit in the current system, but Gunther Cunningham will be thrilled to scheme with Jones in mind. Roll the tape, and regardless of the how teams tried to stop Jones, you see them fail. He led the nation in sacks even though he was a blocking target, used great leverage to hold up as a run defender and in every case, was simply relentless. Sure, Detroit could also use Milliner if available, but a great pass defense starts with pressure.
PLAYER CARD
6Bjoern Werner *Cleveland Browns (5-11)COLLEGE: Florida St.AGE: 22HT: 6-4WT: 255POS: DE
Analysis: The Browns regressed on defense in 2012, and the pass rush was a culprit. This was, by every standard, a bottom-10 unit, and they simply need to add talent. If they want the best player available at this spot, and a guy who fills a void, it might be Werner by the time we get to April. In fact, by then he could be expected to go higher. A late arrival to football, he has a high ceiling, but already has a decent portfolio of pass-rush skills. What's great about Werner isn't just the explosiveness as a pass-rusher, it's also his awareness. He keeps his eyes up and disrupts passing lanes. He's a good fit for the Browns.
PLAYER CARD
7Eric FisherArizona Cardinals (5-11)COLLEGE: Central MichiganAGE: 22HT: 6-8WT: 305POS: OT
Analysis: This is one of the spots where you could see a QB come off the board, but at this stage a QB taken at No. 7 would be a significant reach. Until we see major strides by one of the QB options, Arizona is better off adding a key piece it can start right away and looking for a QB in Round 2, or trading up into the late first. And remember, the Cardinals may have moved on a QB in free agency or via a trade by April. Fisher isn't a big name, but he's as a good as any tackle in this class outside of Joeckel. Arizona was a train wreck at tackle for much of 2012, and even with some young guys on the roster, they need to consider a better option if available.
PLAYER CARD
8Alec Ogletree *Buffalo Bills (6-10)COLLEGE: GeorgiaAGE: 21HT: 6-3WT: 237POS: LB
Analysis: Sticking with a linebacker here, but going with the higher ceiling. The Bills really need help at interior linebacker, where Kelvin Sheppard is merely adequate. Ogletree was at one time a safety, and you see those kinds of instincts when he plays, because he simply flies to the ball. He's a great pursuit player and a guy who will shoot gaps and make stops in the backfield, but that's also because he has really good instincts. A big key with Ogletree is versatility. There's no reason he can't work on the edge, or inside. He has the ceiling of a player who can do it all.
PLAYER CARD
9Dion JordanNew York Jets (6-10)COLLEGE: OregonAGE: 22HT: 6-7WT: 243POS: OLB
Analysis: Yes, they really need skill position upgrades, with wide receiver, tight end and running back all areas of need. But the value is an issue, so if the Jets don't trade down, they're better served going with the best player available at another position of need. I'm a big fan of the interior, with Muhammad Wilkerson and Quinton Coples in place, but the Jets could really use an edge rusher. Jordan is light, but he has long arms, great athleticism and I think can be a guy they don't need to shuttle in and out depending on downs and matchups. He has star potential, and the pass rush gets some help.
PLAYER CARD
10Barkevious Mingo *Tennessee Titans (6-10)COLLEGE: LSUAGE: 22HT: 6-5WT: 242POS: DE
Analysis: Mingo sits on that fine line you can find in this range of the draft. He has the natural skills and athleticism of a devastating pass-rusher in the mold of an Aldon Smith -- those guys don't last into the teens. But there's a small bust potential too if his technique doesn't get better. The guy is long, fast, has a great burst and can flat-out turn the corner. But he also needs to play with better leverage, take on blockers more effectively and find ways to simply be more productive. When you watch Mingo at his best, closing on a QB, he looks too good to pass up. Tennessee needs the pass-rush help, and Mingo could develop into a star.
PLAYER CARD
11Jonathan CooperSan Diego Chargers (7-9)COLLEGE: North CarolinaAGE: 23HT: 6-3WT: 298POS: G
Analysis: I wasn't sure exactly where San Diego would go, but as I talked to people there and also went back to the tape myself, I was surprised at how urgent the interior line situation has become. The run-blocking in particular was a total mess, and it put too much pressure on the passing game. The passing game, of course, also suffered from inconsistent blocking. We'll see how free agency plays out, but I think the Chargers could be ready to focus on problems up front. Cooper fits the bill, can start immediately and should be able to upgrade this unit.
PLAYER CARD
12Cordarrelle Patterson *Miami Dolphins (7-9)COLLEGE: TennesseeAGE: 21HT: 6-3WT: 205POS: WR
Analysis: This is where I projected Patterson the first time around, and I still like it. The question is whether Patterson will still be around this far down the board. The Dolphins need pass-catching help for Ryan Tannehill, mainly of the impact variety. They need a legit matchup problem. Patterson had just one year in the SEC after spending two years at the junior-college level, but he's got the skill set you want for a pick this high. Very good hands, he can beat cornerbacks with his height and strength, and he'll beat defenders for 50-50 balls. He can hurt you after the catch, and the value makes sense.
PLAYER CARD
13Manti Te'oTampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)COLLEGE: Notre DameAGE: 22HT: 6-2WT: 255POS: LB
Analysis: For a pure interior linebacker, Te'o is still the best one on the board. I pushed Ogletree ahead of him based on versatility. I know there will still be questions on the off-the-field stuff, but for the most part Te'o is a known football commodity among NFL evaluators, and he's also considered a safe player to take for the specific goal of having him work inside or on the strongside at linebacker. Tampa Bay could take Te'o and go either way, but he'd represent an upgrade there, particularly on run defense. That said, this is also a LB who was second nationally in INTs, so he knows how to move in coverage as well.
PLAYER CARD
14Sheldon Richardson *Carolina Panthers (7-9)COLLEGE: MissouriAGE: 21HT: 6-4WT: 295POS: DT
Analysis: With Luke Kuechly in place to shore up the linebacking corps, the Panthers should be looking up front; they need a talent upgrade on the defensive line. Richardson is just incredibly active, piling up tackles at a position where that's not easy to do. He's quick off the snap, shows great strength in short-yardage situations and uses his hands to get off blocks and make plays. The guy can even drop into coverage and will destroy screens. If Patterson is here, that's an option, and this could be a reach spot for a guy like Keenan Allen, but they should be thrilled with an impact DT.
PLAYER CARD
15Sharrif Floyd *New Orleans Saints (7-9)COLLEGE: FloridaAGE: 20HT: 6-3WT: 303POS: DT
Analysis: Few players finished the season on a higher note. Floyd was a star out of high school, and has moved around a bit on the defensive line. Because he has some decent pass-rushing skills, and a lot of quickness for his frame, Florida had him over the tackle and the benefit was clear. Floyd had great lower-body strength and can drive O-lineman into the pocket, but he also has powerful hands and moves well to disengage and come free. The Saints are desparate for help on the defensive line, and Floyd can provide balance, as a big, powerful pass-rusher who knows how to identify and use leverage against the run.
PLAYER CARD
16Lane JohnsonSt. Louis Rams (7-8-1)COLLEGE: OklahomaAGE: 22HT: 6-7WT: 303POS: OT
Analysis: The Rams can afford to go a few different ways here because they have that other first-round pick. I think the offensive line has to be a priority at one of these spots. Johnson is a steady tackle who upgrades the team on the right side immediately and has the ceiling of a very good NFL left tackle. He has the long arms you look for, gets into good position immediately and slides really easily to derail speed-rushers. The Rams have skill-position questions, and those could be answered here. But they need to block better, period, or it won't matter how much skill they have.
PLAYER CARD
17Ezekiel AnsahPittsburgh Steelers (8-8)COLLEGE: BYUAGE: 23HT: 6-6WT: 272POS: LB
Analysis: Sticking with Ansah here. You hand an exceptional physical talent with a high ceiling but plenty of development required to Dick LeBeau. When that's the equation, where's the downside? What I think is particularly interesting about this situation is the idea that Ansah could ultimately work out as a 3-4 DE. Ansah might lack polish as a pass-rusher, but he has a lot of power both with raw strength and because he has such a burst, can rush with leverage and also utilize his quickness in one-on-one matchups. The Steelers must get younger on defense and, as I said before, Ansah makes sense given their track record of development.
PLAYER CARD
18Chance WarmackDallas Cowboys (8-8)COLLEGE: AlabamaAGE: 21HT: 6-3WT: 320POS: G
Analysis: Follow my Big Board week to week and you're probably surprised I could fathom a situation where Warmack is still around at No. 18. But remember, the mock also takes into account where I hear teams are valuing guys, and in the case of a player like Warmack, the positional value aspect hurts him as a guard. Make no mistake, he's a stud, a dominant guard who makes your offensive line better the second he signs his contract. But he's staying inside, period, limiting his shot at the top 10. Dallas could certainly use an upgrade at guard, and I don't think the Cowboys can pass up Warmack at this spot on the board if he's available.
PLAYER CARD
19Zach Ertz *New York Giants (9-7)COLLEGE: StanfordAGE: 21HT: 6-6WT: 252POS: TE
Analysis: The Giants got passable tight end play in 2012 from Martellus Bennett, but they could really use a more complete, dynamic player at the position. Bennett could be gone by April, for starters, and they really need to outfit Eli Manning with a difference-maker at the position. Ertz is a good one, a hands-catcher who can really move at over 250 pounds. Giants fans wondering about the ceiling on this kid should watch the Rose Bowl. He can beat teams up the seam, work the edges and use his size and strength to shield defenders and create matchup problems all over the field. He's ready to play now.
PLAYER CARD
20D.J. Fluker *Chicago Bears (10-6)COLLEGE: AlabamaAGE: 21HT: 6-6WT: 335POS: OT
Analysis: A fourth-year junior, Fluker was allowed to participate at the Senior Bowl, and he took advantage. He has great size, and has extremely long arms he can use to move and frustrate pass-rushers. It's possible he was overlooked a little during the season because the level of play along the Bama offensive line was so good. I think when Marc Trestman starts rolling the tape on the Bears, he's going to see that the offensive line simply has to see a talent infusion. Fluker could be the best one the Bears have by the end of his rookie year.
PLAYER CARD
21Kenny VaccaroCincinnati Bengals (10-6)COLLEGE: TexasAGE: 21HT: 6-1WT: 219POS: S
Analysis: This is just a big need spot for the Bengals. Reggie Nelson rated out pretty well for them, but the drop-off is significant from there. What you get in Vaccaro is a player who upgrades at either free or strong safety. Given Nelson's presence, Vaccaro should step in and be the Week 1 starter at strong safety. The Bengals need help at linebacker, and Vaccaro can actually offer that kind of presence, because he's a physical defender who can play in the box and defend the run effectively, or drop into coverage. He's a solid value here and fills a need.
PLAYER CARD
22Keenan Allen *St. Louis Rams (from WAS) (7-8-1)COLLEGE: CaliforniaAGE: 20HT: 6-3WT: 210POS: WR
Analysis: The Rams lock down some blocking help, then get a wide receiver who can help them immediately. That would be a productive first round. It's possible I've worried too much about how well Allen will run, because aside from what should just be a pedestrian 40 time, he can do everything else well. He has a prototypical build, long enough to be taller than most corners, but lean and strong enough where his burst is very good, and quickness out of breaks isn't a question. His hands are very strong, and dependable, and he works back to the ball. A one-time safety, he has game smarts and helps his QB. Sam Bradford will benefit from his presence.
PLAYER CARD
23Sylvester WilliamsMinnesota Vikings (10-6)COLLEGE: North CarolinaAGE: 24HT: 6-3WT: 315POS: DT
Analysis: Wide receiver is also a big need, but the Vikings might not be able to pass on great value if the board breaks this way. And consider what they have on the defensive line -- namely, a few age questions. By Week 1, Kevin Williams will be 33, Jared Allen 31 and Brian Robison 30. Basically, regardless of where they choose to find impact on the defensive line, it can be a useful commodity, and soon. In Williams, they get a player mature enough to contribute immediately. He gets down the line well and is solid against the run, but his burst off the snap can wreck pockets.
PLAYER CARD
24Johnthan BanksIndianapolis Colts (11-5)COLLEGE: Mississippi St.AGE: 23HT: 6-2WT: 188POS: CB
Analysis: The Colts are in a range where they might get some phone calls for potential trades. I can imagine teams drafting early in the second round moving here to get a QB in a decent value range. If Indy stays, the Colts can go a few different ways. If they really like an O-lineman here, I think that's a smart play because they simply have to do more to protect the future of the franchise. But we know the defense could use help in a few places, and the chance to take the second-best CB in the draft is something that could make sense here. Banks can start early and help this defense.
PLAYER CARD
25Johnathan Hankins *Seattle Seahawks (11-5)COLLEGE: Ohio St.AGE: 21HT: 6-3WT: 335POS: DT
Analysis: Another good spot for someone to call and trade up. As for the pick, if Seattle wants a penetrator on the interior of the D-line, Hankins really isn't that guy. He doesn't have the burst to split gaps and create havoc behind the line of scrimmage. What he can do is occupy multiple blockers, help other rushers find space and better matchups and make the Seahawks more difficult to run against as he holds up blockers intent on getting a body in front of Seattle's tandem of great LBs in K.J. Wright and Bobby Wagner. Hankins is an impact guy when his motor is running and will particularly make a run defense sturdier immediately.
PLAYER CARD
26Eddie Lacy *Green Bay Packers (11-5)COLLEGE: AlabamaAGE: 22HT: 6-0WT: 219POS: RB
Analysis: I'll go a little bit out on a limb here, but I think by the time the NFL combine is over Lacy may be at the top of a number of draft boards at running back. And for a franchise that has lacked dynamic play at the position for way too long, Lacy could fill a need, allowing them to do more than simply "show" the run, but to gain some legitimate value out of it. Lacy has really good vision, balance and more shiftiness than many saw because the Bama O-line was so good at clearing a clean path. He has power to push the pile in short-yardage situations, and people will find he's an underrated catcher of the football. He's no lock here, but I like the fit at this early stage.
PLAYER CARD
27Quinton PattonHouston Texans (12-4)COLLEGE: Louisiana TechAGE: 22HT: 6-2WT: 198POS: WR
Analysis: Houston needs to find another weapon for Matt Schaub. Andre Johnson will be 32 this summer, and if he's out of the lineup, the drop-off is significant. If you're a fan that hasn't seen anything from Patton, roll the tape from his game against Texas A&M. All he did to the Aggies was 21 catches, 233 yards and 4 TD catches. Simply put, Patton was really, really hard to cover in 2012, and when he went to the Senior Bowl against some of the top competition in the draft, he didn't get any easier to cover. Love the way he release from pressure, can set defenders up and work the sides or the middle of the field, using long arms to snatch the ball away from his body. A rising player meets a good fit.
PLAYER CARD
28Kawann ShortDenver Broncos (13-3)COLLEGE: PurdueAGE: 23HT: 6-3WT: 312POS: DT
Analysis: Right now Justin Bannan is listed atop the Denver depth chart at nose tackle, and Bannan is 33 with no guarantee of returning in 2013. Insert Short, who can use leverage and strength to eat up blockers, and also has a knack for using long arms to swat passes. The question with Short has been whether he can generate consistent impact play to play, but when he's at his best, he can really free up pass-rushers and linebackers. Denver could also give corner a look here, where a player like Xavier Rhodes could be available.
PLAYER CARD
29Matt Elam *New England Patriots (12-4)COLLEGE: FloridaAGE: 21HT: 5-11WT: 203POS: S
Analysis: What you get from Elam is versatility at safety. He's adept at sitting back and playing center field, using his speed and instincts to make plays in the passing game. But when it's called for, Elam can surface at the line of scrimmage and even attack the backfield. He's not a big safety, but gains in quickness and range what he lacks in size, and he simply isn't shy about taking on bigger ball-carriers, or lining up hits. New England might have found some solutions at corner, but the Patriots could use another safety, and Bill Belichick will find Elam's versatility useful.
PLAYER CARD
30Tyler Eifert *Atlanta Falcons (13-3)COLLEGE: Notre DameAGE: 22HT: 6-6WT: 248POS: TE
Analysis: If all the begging pays off, and Tony Gonzalez does in fact return in 2013, the presence of Eifert would still be valuable. If Gonzalez is back, you add a player that can contribute immediately, who can be moved all over the formation and along with Julio Jones and Roddy White, cause matchup problems for defenses in multiple ways. If Gonzalez does come back, Eifert gets a year to learn from the master, and contribute plenty in the mean time. The Falcons do need help with the pass rush, but it would be hard to pass on Eifert at this spot with the presumption that Gonzalez is headed for retirement.
PLAYER CARD
31John JenkinsSan Francisco 49ers (11-4-1)COLLEGE: GeorgiaAGE: 23HT: 6-2WT: 358POS: DT
Analysis: The current construct of the Niners' roster really offers them a great chance to maximize value, and getting a player like Jenkins this far down the board would represent a lot of value. I also think San Francisco should be conscious of depth and age on the defensive line. We saw how diminished the pass rush was when Justin Smith wasn't healthy, and that's because Smith simply eats up blockers. Jenkins can do the same, though he's certainly no proxy for Smith. But at 359 pounds, he can really move.
PLAYER CARD
32Kevin Minter *Baltimore Ravens (10-6)COLLEGE: LSUAGE: 22HT: 6-2WT: 244POS: LB
Analysis: Word is the Ravens will be down an interior linebacker next season, and they should be thrilled if Minter is still around at this point. In fact, I can see Minter climbing higher, and maybe occupying the spot where Te'o goes, pushing Te'o down into this range. Minter is instinctive, shoots gaps, can play sideline to sideline and is particularly hard for blockers to line up. He's a steady tackler, and a good quarterback for your defense. The Ravens need a new one, finally.
McShay:
Kansas City ChiefsRecord: 2-14
Star Lotulelei, DT, UtahThe biggest question at the top is whether the Chiefs think highly enough of any of the 2013 quarterback prospects to go in that direction with this pick. The second question is whether OT Branden Albert will return to Kansas City. Assuming the answers to those questions are no and yes, respectively, Lotulelei makes most sense. The Chiefs have a need for a 5-technique (DE) in their 3-4 scheme, and he is an ideal fit. Lotulelei has great size and natural tools, especially strength, but he is not just a space-eater. He makes plays versus the run and can help collapse the pocket as an inside power rusher.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Record: 2-14
Bjoern Werner*, DE, Florida StateThe Jaguars might also hesitate to take a quarterback this early, and they need to improve a pass rush that had a league-low 20 sacks last season. Werner is a good overall player who is also strong against the run and would fit well opposite DE Jason Babin, but is he worth this pick? Texas A&M DE Damontre Moore* is a better athlete but could slip a bit due to growing concerns about maturity.
Oakland Raiders
Record: 4-12
Dee Milliner*, CB, AlabamaNew offensive coordinator Greg Olson brings a power, man-blocking running game to Oakland, which is not a great fit for Texas A&M OT Luke Joeckel. Oakland also needs an upgrade along the defensive front, but with Lotulelei and Werner both off the board Milliner make the most sense. He is the most complete cornerback in the 2013 class and would address the team's most glaring weakness.
Philadelphia EaglesRecord: 4-12
Luke Joeckel*, OT, Texas A&MWest Virginia QB Geno Smith is a possibility here, but Joeckel is one of the top three overall prospects in this class and would be tough to pass up. New head coach Chip Kelly favors smaller, more athletic linemen like Joeckel, who would take care of a desperate need for an overall talent and depth upgrade along the offensive line. The question is whether the Eagles would feel comfortable moving Joeckel to the right side to accommodate returning LT Jason Peters.
Detroit LionsRecord: 4-12
Dion Jordan, DE, OregonCornerback is the Lions' biggest need, but with Milliner off the board the defensive line becomes the focus. With Kyle Vanden Bosch having been released and LDE Cliff Avril an unrestricted free agent, Detroit has a need at end. There is simply too much young talent at defensive tackle to let things deteriorate at end. Jordan is an underrated talent with the length and athleticism to develop into an impact starter in NFL, and he's shown the versatility to play multiple roles along the front seven.
Cleveland Browns
Record: 5-11
Barkevious Mingo*, DE, LSUNew defensive coordinator Ray Horton will run a versatile scheme that likely will employ a base 3-4 front, and while the Browns have good depth along the defensive front they need more talented edge rushers. Mingo fits the bill. He is raw, but is the fastest, most athletic edge rusher in the class and could be part as a disruptive perimeter duo with Jabaal Sheard.
Arizona CardinalsRecord: 5-11
Eric Fisher, OT, Central MichiganThe Cardinals have a glaring need at quarterback, and with new offensive coordinator Bruce Arians bringing a vertical attack to Arizona that makes NC State QB Mike Glennon the best fit there. But he might not be worth the pick. The Cards' No. 2 need is at offensive tackle, and Fisher has the feet, length and balance to move into the starting role at left tackle. That would allow aging, injury-riddled Levi Brown to move to the right side, where he is a better fit.
Buffalo BillsRecord: 6-10
Geno Smith, QB, West VirginiaSmith has had some trouble in bad weather, which is clearly a concern for Buffalo, but he is a good fit in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett's version of the West Coast offense. When he's on his game, Smith's mechanics, smarts and confidence are impressive. Where he lands is perhaps the most intriguing storyline leading up to draft day, with Kansas City, Jacksonville and Philadelphia all possibilities in the top five.
New York JetsRecord: 6-10
Jarvis Jones*, OLB, GeorgiaThe Jets have one of the most depleted rosters in the NFL right now, but they're not going to find an answer to their quarterback problem in this scenario. That means finding a competent right tackle, a young pass-rusher (Calvin Pace likely to be cut) are at the top of the priority list. Jones would fit the bill as a pass-rusher. He's versatile, closes quickly and looks to jar the ball loose when he gets to quarterbacks or ball carriers.
Tennessee TitansRecord: 6-10
Chance Warmack, G, AlabamaDefensive end is a strong possibility, especially with talented rushers like Mingo, Jordan and Moore possibly available. However, Warmack is the best guard prospect in a decade and would help solidify the offensive line in front of young QB Jake Locker. Warmack has an elite combination of strength, mobility and consistency, and he would be the perfect successor to Steve Hutchinson. The Titans are strong at OT with Michael Roos and David Stewart coming back, and Warmack would be a great fit inside.
San Diego ChargersRecord: 7-9
Lane Johnson, OT, OklahomaLeft tackle is the team's top need, and with the Chargers likely moving to a zone-blocking scheme, Johnson is a perfect fit. He could improve his overall strength and hand use, but Johnson has good mobility and can quickly develop into a solid pass protector for QB Philip Rivers, who has taken a beating in recent years. Current San Diego OT Jared Gaither lacks mental and physical toughness, and the team should strongly consider parting ways with him to make room for a player like Johnson.
Miami DolphinsRecord: 7-9
Kenny Vaccaro, S, TexasDolphins fans would likely prefer to see the team find a solution at left tackle (assuming Jake Long moves on) or a wide receiver who can threaten defenses. However, Vaccaro is one of the 10 best overall prospects in the class. He has the athleticism to hold up well against slot receivers and give Miami the kind of versatile playmaker it needs in the secondary.
Tampa Bay BuccaneersRecord: 7-9
Damontre Moore, DE, Texas A&MThe Bucs finished last in the NFC with just 27 sacks last season and have plenty of questions along the defensive line. Moore has the athleticism and competitiveness you look for in a pass-rusher, and also the frame to develop into a good every-down player. He comes with some character baggage and could slip out of the top 10, and would be a good find for Tampa Bay with this pick.
Carolina PanthersRecord: 7-9
Sharrif Floyd, DT, FloridaCarolina is much stronger versus the pass than the run, and the team hasn't used a first- or second-round pick on a defensive tackle since taking Kris Jenkins in the first round in 2001. Floyd made huge improvements in terms of hand use and strength, and he also brings versatility and playmaking ability to the table. The arrow is pointing up in a big way for Floyd, who I recently moved up to the No. 7 overall spot on my board.
New Orleans SaintsRecord: 7-9
Ezekiel Ansah, DE/OLB, BYUNew Orleans is moving to a 3-4 scheme and can live with its inside linebackers and defensive ends, but the Saints need edge rushers and a true 3-4 nose tackle. With no pick in the second round, New Orleans could be interested in the scheme versatility Ansah provides. He can play the 5-technique and rush the quarterback off the edge, and while he's not a pure speed rusher Ansah has shown the ability to use speed-to-power moves to track down the quarterback from the perimeter.
St. Louis Rams
Record: 7-8-1
Cordarrelle Patterson*, WR, TennesseeOffensive tackle is the team's top need, but with Joeckel, Fisher and Johnson off the board there is not a good fit available. This is a bit high for any receiver in this class in my opinion, but Patterson is going to rise simply because of his elite skill set. He is raw as a route-runner, but is big and physical enough to get off press coverage and his speed and elusiveness make him a huge threat after the catch. Patterson would be a great weapon for young QB Sam Bradford.
Pittsburgh SteelersRecord: 8-8
Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio StatePittsburgh needs an heir apparent for current NT Casey Hampton, who is expected to leave as a free agent. There's depth at the position with Steve McLendon and Alameda Ta'amu, but neither appears to be the long-term answer. This might be a bit early for Hankins in my opinion, but some feel he grades out perfectly in the middle of Round 1. Regardless, you can't coach his size and ability to anchor in the middle against the run.
Dallas CowboysRecord: 8-8
Sheldon Richardson, DT, MissouriRichardson fills a top need and is a perfect fit as 3-technique in the 4-3 scheme of new defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin. He lacks ideal size and strength, but Richardson has elite first-step quickness, change-of-direction skills and range to penetrate and disrupt plays.
New York GiantsRecord: 9-7
Alec Ogletree*, LB, GeorgiaThe Giants could also address needs at offensive tackle, cornerback, tight end or defensive en here, but if Ogletree's character checks out he is a steal this late in the first round. He is one if the best pound-for-pound athletes in the class and has the range to chase plays from sideline to sideline.
Chicago Bears
Record: 10-6
Manti Te'o, ILB, Notre DameLeft tackle is the Bears' biggest need, but they cannot afford to miss at that position again after whiffing on the likes of Gabe Carimi and Chris Williams. Any tackle still on the board would be a reach here, and if Chicago elects to let 35-year old MLB Brian Urlacher walk in free agency, Te'o would be an interesting replacement with his three-down ability.
Cincinnati BengalsRecord: 10-6
Eddie Lacy*, RB, AlabamaThis is too high for Lacy in my opinion, but some believe he's worth a top-20 pick and if Cincinnati has a high enough grade on him it would make sense from a needs standpoint. I would rather see the Bengals address a different position, but they've used so many early-round picks on players at key positions (QB, OL, WR, DL, CB, TE) in recent years that they might be able to afford a luxury pick like this. Defensive end could also be an option if the right player were available.
St. Louis Rams (From 10-6 WAS)Record: 7-8-1
Sylvester Williams, DT, North CarolinaWilliams lost weight, got healthy and improved his quickness as a senior. He gets off the ball well and can disrupt things along the interior, and would add valuable depth in the middle. Alabama OT D.J. Fluker would be a reach at this point, but he might be in play for the Ram's need at right tackle.
Minnesota Vikings
Record: 10-6
Blidi Wreh-Wilson, CB, ConnecticutMinnesota has options here, and a big receiver like California's Keenan Allen might make sense. However, Wreh-Wilson is a value pick at a key position and the Vikings need another talented young corner to go with Chris Cook and Josh Robinson. Wreh-Wilson is one of the most underrated prospects in the class. He plays under control, has good speed and excellent balance, and also supports the run well.
Indianapolis Colts
Record: 11-5
Johnthan Banks*, CB, Miss. St.The defensive front seven and the offensive line will certainly be in play here, but the Colts need to find some difference makers in the secondary. Banks has good size, is an instinctive cover corner, and shows toughness and outstanding ball skills. He notched 16 career picks at Mississippi State, including three he returned for scores.
Seattle SeahawksRecord: 11-5
Sam Montgomery*, DE, LSUSeattle's defense was strong overall in 2012, but DE Chris Clemons tore his ACL late in the season and Bruce Irvin is at his best as a sub-package rusher. Montgomery has the size and strength to start opposite Red Bryant and help beef up Seattle's run defense.
Green Bay PackersRecord: 11-5
Johnathan Jenkins, DT, GeorgiaThe Packers would like to find a left tackle in the first round, but there are none available worth the pick in this scenario. They can also address their need at running back in the second or third round. Nose tackle is not a pressing need, but it's tough to find massive pluggers with some mobility like Jenkins. He and B.J. Raji would give Green Bay versatility along its defensive front, and Jenkins could bolster a run defense that ranked in the bottom third of the NFL in yards per carry allowed at 4.5.
Houston TexansRecord: 12-4
Keenan Allen, WR, CaliforniaThe Texans need more legitimate pass-catching options outside of Pro Bowl WR Andre Johnson. Allen lacks elite top-end speed, but he's a great athlete with a good frame, and his ball skills are much-improved from early in his career. He would give QB Matt Schaub another quality option and help open up some room for Johnson.
Denver BroncosRecord: 13-3
Kawann Short, DT, PurdueDenver could opt for a slot receiver who could give QB Peyton Manning another weapon, but the Broncos need to beef up the interior of their defensive line. Short is a strong run defender with a quick first step and a powerful upper body. The biggest knock on him is his inconsistent motor, but you don't see many guys loafing it in Denver now that Peyton is in town.
New England PatriotsRecord: 12-4
Jonathan Cooper, G, North CarolinaThis is a pure value pick. Cooper is a stud, the most mobile offensive line prospects in the class and a player with a chance to become an elite interior linemen in the NFL. Patriots fans surely want to see a WR with this pick and Allen or Tennessee's Justin Hunter would fit the bill, or perhaps a slot weapon like West Virginia's Tavon Austin. Cooper is an absolute steal if he lasts this long, though, especially given the durability issues current G Logan Mankins has dealt with in recent seasons.
Atlanta FalconsRecord: 13-3
Zach Ertz*, TE, StanfordFuture Hall of Fame TE Tony Gonzalez has announced he will retire, and Ertz is the top-rated tight end on our board. He doesn't have elite speed, but he is a good athlete who knows how to separate from coverage, and can make tough catches over his head and in traffic.
San Francisco 49ersRecord: 11-4-1
Justin Hunter*, WR, TennesseeNose tackle is a possibility here, but wide receiver is a legitimate need for the 49ers with both Randy Moss and Ted Ginn scheduled to hit free agency. The team would like A.J. Jenkins to become a difference-maker in the slot, but San Francisco needs another outside weapon who can take advantage of QB Colin Kaepernick's strong arm. Hunter's hands are a bit inconsistent, but he is a smooth athlete who runs good routes and can make plays downfield.
Baltimore RavensRecord: 10-6
Jesse Williams, DT, AlabamaThe newly crowned Super Bowl champs would love to find a future left tackle to groom, but probably won't with the last pick in the first round. Possible replacements for MLB Ray Lewis and S Ed Reed might also be reaches at this point. General manager Ozzie Newsome is an Alabama guy and knows Williams well. He's not flashy, but Williams is the kind of big, tough, selfless defensive linemen who can occupy blockers and make average linebackers and safeties look much better as run defenders.
