Porcello trade scenarios?

[kingofdetroit57]

That honestly doesn't make any sense unless we made a huge trade with two current starters involved. I really don't see that happening.

 

[Thumb]

The problem is this: Porcello's value is as a 3-4 starter who will make 30+ starts.

If DD is saying Smyly is part of the rotation as of right now, then we either trade Rick for some sort of return (prospects, solid middle IFer) or we relegate him to the bullpen, where he loses a great deal of value. No team will want him as a starter in July if he has not been getting innings.

So it's pretty clear, either Rick goes in some kind of a trade, or he stays and starts as the #5 man. Smyly has more options and less overall value to lose of he gets designated for bullpen duty.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Or you just keep him in case of injury. I prefer to get some value but keeping him isn't a bad idea.

 

[Thumb]

Or you just keep him in case of injury. I prefer to get some value but keeping him isn't a bad idea.

But keep him and do what?

If you take him out of the rotation, and limit his innings it's possible he goes through a period like Fister did in 2012 because of lack of innings. You basically have a guy who's rusty, not to mention history has shown the transition rotation to bullpen and vice versa is not always smooth.

I get what you guys are saying, use him as a "break glass in case of injury" type guy, but I don't see that working out well.

Either you have faith in him as a reliable starter, and give him the last rotation spot, or you don't have faith in him, and if you don't have faith in him, you trade him.

Personally I'd like to see a rotation of: Verlander, Fister, Scherzer, Sanchez, and Porcello and have Smyly and Below as your emergency guys in case someone gets hurt.

 

[Mitchrapp]

I don't think you have to trade Porcello. You could wait until some team loses a guy and maybe get a deal in April or wait until 2014. I'm still not sold that Smyly will be a better 5 than Porcello.

I guess I'm just not sure what we could realistically could get that fits a need.

 

[tomdalton22]

I think they should keep him unless they can get something of value in return....no need to trade him just to do it. Just send Smyly to AAA. If the right trade scenario comes up in the season you pull the trigger.

 

[uofmpoweri]

I would like to think that Porcello has trade value, but with his ERA over 4.5 in a pitchers park, I just don't see it. Especially since he doesn't show any signs of development. I think that the best roll for him would be as a long reliever. He pitches pretty well for a few innings then he gets bombed in the 4-7th innings. Maybe he can have success in the bullpen where fatigue isn't a concern.

I was trying to think of a deal like Porcello for Olt then Olt and Castellanos for Stanton. But why would Texas, or anyone, want Porcello for a top prospect? Every team in baseball can plug in a guy that will give you 5 innings and a 4.50 ERA.

 

[Rebbiv]

I would like to think that Porcello has trade value, but with his ERA over 4.5 in a pitchers park, I just don't see it. Especially since he doesn't show any signs of development. I think that the best roll for him would be as a long reliever. He pitches pretty well for a few innings then he gets bombed in the 4-7th innings. Maybe he can have success in the bullpen where fatigue isn't a concern.

I was trying to think of a deal like Porcello for Olt then Olt and Castellanos for Stanton. But why would Texas, or anyone, want Porcello for a top prospect? Every team in baseball can plug in a guy that will give you 5 innings and a 4.50 ERA.

First of all, Comerica IS NOT a pitcher's park. It is park neutral.

Second, ERA is a bad stat to judge a pitcher. PERIOD. There are other metrics far better than ERA. But....just for the record:

Average AL starter ERA

2012 = 4.37

2011 = 4.21

2010 = 4.26

2009 = 4.62

2008 = 4.48


Porcello has averaged 5.8 IP/GS for his career. During his career, the MLB average for a starter is 5.9 IP/GS.


At 24, he is a solid #4 starter, with a strong possibility to be a #3. By himself, you won't get you a potential All Star. But he should be able to get a solid (average) every day player.

 

[uofmpoweri]

First of all, Comerica IS NOT a pitcher's park. It is park neutral.

Second, ERA is a bad stat to judge a pitcher. PERIOD. There are other metrics far better than ERA. But....just for the record:

Average AL starter ERA

2012 = 4.37

2011 = 4.21

2010 = 4.26

2009 = 4.62

2008 = 4.48


Porcello has averaged 5.8 IP/GS for his career. During his career, the MLB average for a starter is 5.9 IP/GS.


At 24, he is a solid #4 starter, with a strong possibility to be a #3. By himself, you won't get you a potential All Star. But he should be able to get a solid (average) every day player.

Let me guess WAR is the only stat that you want to look at? Were you ready to give Trout the MVP over Cabrera too?

 

[Rebbiv]

Let me guess WAR is the only stat that you want to look at? Were you ready to give Trout the MVP over Cabrera too?

I despise WAR and prefer WPA/LI myself. But that is hardly the point. Aside from ERA and WHIP, I can cite at least 9 valid sabermetric pitching stat categories where Porcello is at least a #4 or better.

 

[tigersofjustice]

By WAR, Porcello is #42 in production from a pitcher over the last three calender years. Now some people hate WAR, and though Rebbiv is right that you could find other saber stats to show he's been about that good I'm using WAR for convenience. Fact is, he's been closer to a #2 in overall production across the league than a number #4. He looks like a number 4 when your the Tigers and you have a great staff and are competing for the playoffs against other stacked rotations, but I think people forget that there are a ton of very horrible pitchers that make up entire staffs at the bottom of the league.

By last year Porcello was #37 in the entire league, again a number 2. Maybe he doesn't have a ton of value to the Tigers because we have 4 better pitchers but he certainly should have value across the league as that of a good pitcher, which he is.

Basically if you can't get a starting position player in the top 100 position players by value, then you're getting ripped off. Porcello shouldn't be traded for anything less than that or equivalent value in prospects.

 

[Mitchrapp]

WAR is just a sucky stat. Its based on opportunities that might not be there.

 

[tigersofjustice]

WAR is just a sucky stat. Its based on opportunities that might not be there.

By FIP Porcello was #41 this past season.

 

[Mitchrapp]

By FIP Porcello was #41 this past season.

41-42 might be a number two on many teams but it doesn't mean he's a number 2. I hope so, if he stays, but he's a 4 right now. Maybe a 3 one day.

We have a 1, JV, two 2's, Fister and Max (who imo can both be 1's) and a 3, Sanchez, who can get to a 2. I love this staff.

 

[Thumb]

WAR is just a sucky stat. Its based on opportunities that might not be there.

WAR is a perfectly viable stat, given a person understands it (unlike Keith Law), and knows that it, like any stat, has limitations, and should not be used as a de facto stat to rule all other stats.

That said, I don't much care for WAR as a pitcher stat. I find it more useful in comparing position players of the same league.

 

[spockmaster]

WAR is a perfectly viable stat, given a person understands it (unlike Keith Law), and knows that it, like any stat, has limitations, and should not be used as a de facto stat to rule all other stats.

That said, I don't much care for WAR as a pitcher stat. I find it more useful in comparing position players of the same league.

baseball's opening day ceremonies this year should be firing jeff passan, keith law, and chris berman out of a cannon into the sun.

 

[Mitchrapp]

I don't value it at all when talking defense. No way AJ goes from best D-WAR in all of baseball in 2011 to where he finished in 2012. He's still one of the best CF in the game.

 

[tigersofjustice]

I don't value it at all when talking defense. No way AJ goes from best D-WAR in all of baseball in 2011 to where he finished in 2012. He's still one of the best CF in the game.

The UZR component in WAR is fine, it just really cannot be used on a one year basis. A one year sample is inadequate. It is fine over about 3 years.

 

[tigersofjustice]

41-42 might be a number two on many teams but it doesn't mean he's a number 2. I hope so, if he stays, but he's a 4 right now. Maybe a 3 one day.

We have a 1, JV, two 2's, Fister and Max (who imo can both be 1's) and a 3, Sanchez, who can get to a 2. I love this staff.

So if he's the second best pitcher on a lot of teams (best on a handful of teams) that still means he's a number 4? He can only be a number 2 in a good rotation to be a number 2? That doesn't make sense.

 

[@Stakesarehigh]

Porcello's output only matters in its construct with the tigers as they are built. he'd be a solid 2/3 on a team with 2009 Tigers type defense but with this team he cannot pitch with the kind of confidence he could with a solid D behind him...

I still say the best move is to trade him while he has the kind of upside teams will trade valuable pieces for...definitely wouldn't short sell him however because he will be succesful in the right situation but Detroit isn't it.

just takes the right trade but if Detroit can't find the right offers then I guess they keep him.