Predictions 2012

[tycobb420]

US House: GOP loses 10-12 seats, but maintains control.

Reason: In 7 of the last 10 elections in which a prez runs for re-election, the party in control of the White House has gained House seats.

US Senate: GOP gains 5 and wins control.

Reason: Dems have to defend 23 seats, of which 12-13 are winnable for the GOP. Reps have to defend 10 (1 or 2 might be vulnerable).

President: Obama loses.

Reason: No president has ever won re-election with an approval rating so low. Add to this the economy and it seems highly unlikely people will re-elect him. The only question is whether his campaign decides to go scorched Earth.

 

[johnny2x2x]

Dems win 35 seats and control of House. 50% chance

GOP probably wins Senate now with all the retirements. %50 chance

Obama wins reelection. He's trading high right now and is the favorite on non partisan odds maker sites and his approval ratings are climbing towards 50%. 80% chance

 

[lions2011]

Obama wins easily....this Republican field is downright pathetic.

 

[tycobb420]

Dems win 35 seats and control of House. 50% chance

GOP probably wins Senate now with all the retirements. %50 chance

Obama wins reelection. He's trading high right now and is the favorite on non partisan odds maker sites and his approval ratings are climbing towards 50%. 80% chance

Using historical data, the Dems chance of getting the house is more like 35%.

Chances the GOP gains the Senate based on the above data...70%

Obama's re-elect odds are more like 44% based on history. The trading sites are worthless for this.

 

[tycobb420]

Obama wins easily....this Republican field is downright pathetic.

Brilliant analysis as always. (Sarcasm)

 

[lions2011]

Obama got a 6 point bump last month for basically doing nothing...he sat back and watched the 1st year Tea Party members of congress play Boehner like a cheap fiddle....coming back in 2012 , they're expected to again not cave on the payroll tax bill that only received a 2 month extension...

Republicans are polling at about 10 % in Congress with a very likeable POTUS gaining traction...Voter frustration will be taken out on Congress , Obama will carry Ohio and Pennsylvania again and most likely Florida...Repubs cant win with him carrying those 3 again.

 

[lions2011]

Obama wins easily....this Republican field is downright pathetic.

Brilliant analysis as always. (Sarcasm)

it's actually spot on....it's almost January and you have a guy who will probably get the nomination by default who has been campaigning since 2008 and cant get above 35% from his own party.....lol

and thats if Palin doesn't decide to broker the convention..which that crazy bitch could do,.

 

[tycobb420]

Obama got a 6 point bump last month for basically doing nothing...he sat back and watched the 1st year Tea Party members of congress play Boehner like a cheap fiddle....coming back in 2012 , they're expected to again not cave on the payroll tax bill that only received a 2 month extension...

Republicans are polling at about 10 % in Congress with a very likeable POTUS gaining traction...Voter frustration will be taken out on Congress , Obama will carry Ohio and Pennsylvania again and most likely Florida...Repubs cant win with him carrying those 3 again.

Irrelevant. The bump will subside. In the last polls i saw, Obama is in deep trouble in those states. I do this type of analysis in my job. Obama's chances (at present) are extremely long. Things can change, but it is highly unlikely. A half way decent campaign by Romney will result in Obama's defeat...and with some of the things recently in the NY Times and other outlets, I am not sure the Dems in Congress care if Obama loses.

 

[tycobb420]

Brilliant analysis as always. (Sarcasm)

it's actually spot on....it's almost January and you have a guy who will probably get the nomination by default who has been campaigning since 2008 and cant get above 35% from his own party.....lol

and thats if Palin doesn't decide to broker the convention..which that crazy bitch could do,.

Doesn't matter. The inside numbers show Romney is actually stronger than those numbers show.

 

[lions2011]

Obama got a 6 point bump last month for basically doing nothing...he sat back and watched the 1st year Tea Party members of congress play Boehner like a cheap fiddle....coming back in 2012 , they're expected to again not cave on the payroll tax bill that only received a 2 month extension...

Republicans are polling at about 10 % in Congress with a very likeable POTUS gaining traction...Voter frustration will be taken out on Congress , Obama will carry Ohio and Pennsylvania again and most likely Florida...Repubs cant win with him carrying those 3 again.

Irrelevant. The bump will subside. In the last polls i saw, Obama is in deep trouble in those states. I do this type of analysis in my job. Obama's chances (at present) are extremely long. Things can change, but it is highly unlikely. A half way decent campaign by Romney will result in Obama's defeat...and with some of the things recently in the NY Times and other outlets, I am not sure the Dems in Congress care if Obama loses.

whatever you say...the guy ( Romney ) has been campaigning for 4 years and cant get any higher then 35% from his fucking base...lol

cya in November.

 

[tycobb420]

Irrelevant. The bump will subside. In the last polls i saw, Obama is in deep trouble in those states. I do this type of analysis in my job. Obama's chances (at present) are extremely long. Things can change, but it is highly unlikely. A half way decent campaign by Romney will result in Obama's defeat...and with some of the things recently in the NY Times and other outlets, I am not sure the Dems in Congress care if Obama loses.

whatever you say...the guy ( Romney ) has been campaigning for 4 years and cant get any higher then 35% from his fucking base...lol

cya in November.

See my previous post. Leave this to the professionals so you don't get hurt.

 

[tycobb420]

Obama has 5 major obstacles to overcome to win re-election.

1. His record. Most Americans believe he's failed (See his poll #s on economy, right/wrong track, etc.) Last week, over 50% believed he did not deserve re-election. As a result, he has changed his campaign strategy. Before, he was trying to say he saved the country from a Great Depression. Now, he's attacking Congress and Washington. Despite his recent declaration, the most recent study I have seen on presidential rankings placed Obama 37th all time as opposed to 4th.

2. The economy. Even if it is turning around, it might be too late for him. Also, if people start returning to the labor force, the unemployment rate will probably increase. He probably can't win reelection with unemployment over 8%.

3. Foreign affairs could play a role for or against him. Pakistan, Iran, Iraq, and North Korea are all wild cards. Iran's current intransigence has already bumped up oil prices. Gas has jumped 10 cents in a week here. $5 gas would be bad for his re-elect.

4. The Supreme Court's decision on health care is another wild card. If it is struck down, his signature accomplishment will be eliminated and it will appear he wasted the first two years of his presidency.

5. History itself. No one has ever been re-elected with #s this low this late. The country has not re-elected 3 straight 2-term presidents since 1800-1820. No one has been re-elected (in modern times) with unemployment so high.

 

[tycobb420]

Irrelevant. The bump will subside. In the last polls i saw, Obama is in deep trouble in those states. I do this type of analysis in my job. Obama's chances (at present) are extremely long. Things can change, but it is highly unlikely. A half way decent campaign by Romney will result in Obama's defeat...and with some of the things recently in the NY Times and other outlets, I am not sure the Dems in Congress care if Obama loses.

whatever you say...the guy ( Romney ) has been campaigning for 4 years and cant get any higher then 35% from his fucking base...lol

cya in November.

Gallup just released their latest poll...Obama is now at 41%...as I said the bump will slide.

 

[lions2011]

5. History itself. No one has ever been re-elected with #s this low this late. The country has not re-elected 3 straight 2-term presidents since 1800-1820. No one has been re-elected (in modern times) with unemployment so high.

Kennedy doesn't get his head blown off.....it happens.

 

[jimrice]

US House: GOP loses 10-12 seats, but maintains control.

Reason: In 7 of the last 10 elections in which a prez runs for re-election, the party in control of the White House has gained House seats.

US Senate: GOP gains 5 and wins control.

Reason: Dems have to defend 23 seats, of which 12-13 are winnable for the GOP. Reps have to defend 10 (1 or 2 might be vulnerable).

President: Obama loses.

Reason: No president has ever won re-election with an approval rating so low. Add to this the economy and it seems highly unlikely people will re-elect him. The only question is whether his campaign decides to go scorched Earth.

Pretty much agree, up to Obama prediction.

It looks like Mitt will win the primary, and he does have a chance. However, the limitations in his character and his religion will prompt a significant 3rd party bid, in my opinion.

Once Mitt seals the primary, I expect he will run fast to the center, thus alienating his recently won-over conservatives. Romney will soften on social issues and the Republican base (aka TeaPArty) will have a problem with that.

I think someone will run from the right in the general and help Obama win.

 

[tycobb420]

5. History itself. No one has ever been re-elected with #s this low this late. The country has not re-elected 3 straight 2-term presidents since 1800-1820. No one has been re-elected (in modern times) with unemployment so high.

Kennedy doesn't get his head blown off.....it happens.

Ike won 2 terms, if JFK wins, then he wins two terms. Truman won once. FDR won in 1944. Thanks for playing.

 

[lions2011]

US House: GOP loses 10-12 seats, but maintains control.

Reason: In 7 of the last 10 elections in which a prez runs for re-election, the party in control of the White House has gained House seats.

US Senate: GOP gains 5 and wins control.

Reason: Dems have to defend 23 seats, of which 12-13 are winnable for the GOP. Reps have to defend 10 (1 or 2 might be vulnerable).

President: Obama loses.

Reason: No president has ever won re-election with an approval rating so low. Add to this the economy and it seems highly unlikely people will re-elect him. The only question is whether his campaign decides to go scorched Earth.

Pretty much agree, up to Obama prediction.

It looks like Mitt will win the primary, and he does have a chance. However, the limitations in his character and his religion will prompt a significant 3rd party bid, in my opinion.

Once Mitt seals the primary, I expect he will run fast to the center, thus alienating his recently won-over conservatives. Romney will soften on social issues and the Republican base (aka TeaPArty) will have a problem with that.

I think someone will run from the right in the general and help Obama win.

Mitt will shift right after Iowa....NH is all his , Florida and SC should play to Gingrich.....

if Romney ends up heading to the convention as the frontrunner , rumors are Palin could step in and force a brokered convention...which would be a beautiful thing.

Obama will get a 2nd term....christ a moron like Bush got 2 terms.

Republicans will rally around Chris Christie or Jeb for 2016.

 

[mhughes0021]

President: Obama loses.

Reason: No president has ever won re-election with an approval rating so low. Add to this the economy and it seems highly unlikely people will re-elect him. The only question is whether his campaign decides to go scorched Earth.

Has a president ever had to go up against such a bunch of fucking morons before? This is unprecedented....the fact one group of "leaders" can put forth one douchebag candidate after another will pave way for a president to be reelected for the first time with such a low approval rating.

 

[mhughes0021]

Obama got a 6 point bump last month for basically doing nothing...he sat back and watched the 1st year Tea Party members of congress play Boehner like a cheap fiddle....coming back in 2012 , they're expected to again not cave on the payroll tax bill that only received a 2 month extension...

Republicans are polling at about 10 % in Congress with a very likeable POTUS gaining traction...Voter frustration will be taken out on Congress , Obama will carry Ohio and Pennsylvania again and most likely Florida...Repubs cant win with him carrying those 3 again.

Irrelevant. The bump will subside. In the last polls i saw, Obama is in deep trouble in those states. I do this type of analysis in my job.

Deep trouble how? lol you have no idea who hes even going against?! You have the best the republicans can offer on TV almost every single week all bashing the president because for some reason they need like 69 debates to decide who the bigger moron is and they STILL cant poll well lol. Just wait until the finally decide on the least biggest moron and Obama gets to debate him. It wont matter who hes going up against...theyve provided enough ammo over the past year that Suddam Husseins dead body would win in an election against whoever they decide on.

 

[johnny2x2x]

Intrade who have no politics in mind has Obama at 52% to win right now and rising. Yeah, being the odds on favorite before you've even begun to campaign while your opponents are doing nothing but is deep trouble. Kind of like the Green Bay Packers are in deep trouble right now.

Love him or hate him, he's very well liked and respected personally and an incumbent at a time when the Republican Party polls worse than any party in American history as a whole. I know it doesn't fit the RW FOX theme, but Obama polling below 50% has more to do with his being too Conservative for Democrats than too Liberal for the middle. The guys been a lot like Bush on most major issues. Those people will hold their nose and vote for him because the Mitt is not even a serious option for them. Obama will likely be running against a Mormon from a party of Evangelicals. Don't kid yourself, it's an uphill battle for any Republican.