Predictions 2012

[tycobb420]

Irrelevant. The bump will subside. In the last polls i saw, Obama is in deep trouble in those states. I do this type of analysis in my job.

Deep trouble how? lol you have no idea who hes even going against?! You have the best the republicans can offer on TV almost every single week all bashing the president because for some reason they need like 69 debates to decide who the bigger moron is and they STILL cant poll well lol. Just wait until the finally decide on the least biggest moron and Obama gets to debate him. It wont matter who hes going up against...theyve provided enough ammo over the past year that Suddam Husseins dead body would win in an election against whoever they decide on.

He's going against history. As of now, his re-elect chances are not good for an incumbent.

 

[tycobb420]

Intrade who have no politics in mind has Obama at 52% to win right now and rising. Yeah, being the odds on favorite before you've even begun to campaign while your opponents are doing nothing but is deep trouble. Kind of like the Green Bay Packers are in deep trouble right now.

Love him or hate him, he's very well liked and respected personally and an incumbent at a time when the Republican Party polls worse than any party in American history as a whole. I know it doesn't fit the RW FOX theme, but Obama polling below 50% has more to do with his being too Conservative for Democrats than too Liberal for the middle. The guys been a lot like Bush on most major issues. Those people will hold their nose and vote for him because the Mitt is not even a serious option for them. Obama will likely be running against a Mormon from a party of Evangelicals. Don't kid yourself, it's an uphill battle for any Republican.

Intrade is irrelevant. It's not scientific. He's at 41% in the polls. 50% disapprove. When you hit 50%, you're doomed.

 

[johnny2x2x]

Gallup is an outlier right now, poll of polls he's above 46%, much more reliable.

Intrade is absolutely relevant in that they've been right every election. They analyze every election since the 1800s. They have no political axe to grind. It's the most accurate measure there is and Obama is trending up at 52.1% today. They are so accurate that by 2004 their model not only predicted the outcome of a narrow Bush win, they got every single State right, so they got the electoral vote count exactly right. Impressive. In 2008 I think they got 1 State wrong.

 

[Thumb]

Intrade who have no politics in mind has Obama at 52% to win right now and rising. Yeah, being the odds on favorite before you've even begun to campaign while your opponents are doing nothing but is deep trouble. Kind of like the Green Bay Packers are in deep trouble right now.

Love him or hate him, he's very well liked and respected personally and an incumbent at a time when the Republican Party polls worse than any party in American history as a whole. I know it doesn't fit the RW FOX theme, but Obama polling below 50% has more to do with his being too Conservative for Democrats than too Liberal for the middle. The guys been a lot like Bush on most major issues. Those people will hold their nose and vote for him because the Mitt is not even a serious option for them. Obama will likely be running against a Mormon from a party of Evangelicals. Don't kid yourself, it's an uphill battle for any Republican.

Intrade is irrelevant. It's not scientific. He's at 41% in the polls. 50% disapprove. When you hit 50%, you're doomed.

How does his approval rating mean shit right now?

What matters is how well he polls against his opponents, and I think the only GOP guys the entire Republican party would get behind is Noot, but he's screwing himself everytime he opens his mouth. So you guys will end up with Romney as the nominee, and in the end your ultra-religious-protestant majority will fail to support him.

Obama wins in '12.

 

[mhughes0021]

Intrade who have no politics in mind has Obama at 52% to win right now and rising. Yeah, being the odds on favorite before you've even begun to campaign while your opponents are doing nothing but is deep trouble. Kind of like the Green Bay Packers are in deep trouble right now.

Love him or hate him, he's very well liked and respected personally and an incumbent at a time when the Republican Party polls worse than any party in American history as a whole. I know it doesn't fit the RW FOX theme, but Obama polling below 50% has more to do with his being too Conservative for Democrats than too Liberal for the middle. The guys been a lot like Bush on most major issues. Those people will hold their nose and vote for him because the Mitt is not even a serious option for them. Obama will likely be running against a Mormon from a party of Evangelicals. Don't kid yourself, it's an uphill battle for any Republican.

Intrade is irrelevant. It's not scientific. He's at 41% in the polls. 50% disapprove. When you hit 50%, you're doomed.

up to 46% in less than 2 weeks and the guys not even campaigning. Latest Odds for him to win reelection are 55%. Pretty good considering they havent even put a body next to him and he hasnt started his campagin against an opponent. Its very easy to simply say "ya i dont like obama" when there is no other option at the moment lol. Wait until they have a choice between obama or a douchebag and all of those numbers in regards to % to win and gallup polls will rise.

 

[tsmith7559]

Intrade is irrelevant. It's not scientific. He's at 41% in the polls. 50% disapprove. When you hit 50%, you're doomed.

up to 46% in less than 2 weeks and the guys not even campaigning. Latest Odds for him to win reelection are 55%. Pretty good considering they havent even put a body next to him and he hasnt started his campagin against an opponent. Its very easy to simply say "ya i dont like obama" when there is no other option at the moment lol. Wait until they have a choice between obama or a douchebag and all of those numbers in regards to % to win and gallup polls will rise.

take out the biased NBC/ABC/CNN and he is still around 44.5%.....

 

[tycobb420]

up to 46% in less than 2 weeks and the guys not even campaigning. Latest Odds for him to win reelection are 55%. Pretty good considering they havent even put a body next to him and he hasnt started his campagin against an opponent. Its very easy to simply say "ya i dont like obama" when there is no other option at the moment lol. Wait until they have a choice between obama or a douchebag and all of those numbers in regards to % to win and gallup polls will rise.

take out the biased NBC/ABC/CNN and he is still around 44.5%.....

42% in Gallup today.

 

[tycobb420]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/gloomy-numbers-for-obama/2012/01/02/gIQAuGI3WP_story.html

 

[tycobb420]

Gallup is an outlier right now, poll of polls he's above 46%, much more reliable.

Intrade is absolutely relevant in that they've been right every election. They analyze every election since the 1800s. They have no political axe to grind. It's the most accurate measure there is and Obama is trending up at 52.1% today. They are so accurate that by 2004 their model not only predicted the outcome of a narrow Bush win, they got every single State right, so they got the electoral vote count exactly right. Impressive. In 2008 I think they got 1 State wrong.

He had a small bump at the end of last year. His averages went up, but he's back down again as predicted.

Intrade is absolutely irrelevant. It means absolutely nothing in January. All the historical models show an Obama loss as of today.

 

[tycobb420]

http://www.examiner.com/american-history-in-national/history-against-obama-s-re-election

 

[mhughes0021]

What did the winning iowa guy get? Like 25%?! 42% is like a dream for the goof troop.

 

[tycobb420]

What did the winning iowa guy get? Like 25%?! 42% is like a dream for the goof troop.

Since 1980, 25% has been the avg for Iowa caucus winners.

 

[tycobb420]

Intrade is irrelevant. It's not scientific. He's at 41% in the polls. 50% disapprove. When you hit 50%, you're doomed.

How does his approval rating mean shit right now?

What matters is how well he polls against his opponents, and I think the only GOP guys the entire Republican party would get behind is Noot, but he's screwing himself everytime he opens his mouth. So you guys will end up with Romney as the nominee, and in the end your ultra-religious-protestant majority will fail to support him.

Obama wins in '12.

Head-to-head matchups (i.e. Romney v Obama, Paul v. Obama, etc) are meaningless at the moment. Approval rating is a great historical indicator of electoral chances. Naturally things can change and things are fluid. But, based on history, Obama's low approval rating bodes ill for re-elect.

 

[lions2011]

What did the winning iowa guy get? Like 25%?! 42% is like a dream for the goof troop.

Since 1980, 25% has been the avg for Iowa caucus winners.

Huckabee 2008 - 34%

Bush 2000 - 41 %

Dole 96 - 26% - funny like Romney the party wouldnt get behind him because he was running for the 2nd time like Mittens.

Dole 88 - 37 %

H.W. Bush 80 - 32 % Reagan 30 %

seems Old Mittens is in the Bob Dole '96 boat.

 

[tycobb420]

Since 1980, 25% has been the avg for Iowa caucus winners.

Huckabee 2008 - 34%

Bush 2000 - 41 %

Dole 96 - 26% - funny like Romney the party wouldnt get behind him because he was running for the 2nd time like Mittens.

Dole 88 - 37 %

H.W. Bush 80 - 32 % Reagan 30 %

seems Old Mittens is in the Bob Dole '96 boat.

My bad. It's what I get for listening to a columnists on MSNBC and CNN as opposed to looking at the Des Moines Register.

1996 and 2012 are two entirely different situations. You could compare 1996 to 1984, but not 2012.

 

[lions2011]

Huckabee 2008 - 34%

Bush 2000 - 41 %

Dole 96 - 26% - funny like Romney the party wouldnt get behind him because he was running for the 2nd time like Mittens.

Dole 88 - 37 %

H.W. Bush 80 - 32 % Reagan 30 %

seems Old Mittens is in the Bob Dole '96 boat.

My bad. It's what I get for listening to a columnists on MSNBC and CNN as opposed to looking at the Des Moines Register.

1996 and 2012 are two entirely different situations. You could compare 1996 to 1984, but not 2012.

nah....Mitt is Dole , he's the repub who is gonna get offered up for slaughter.

 

[tycobb420]

My bad. It's what I get for listening to a columnists on MSNBC and CNN as opposed to looking at the Des Moines Register.

1996 and 2012 are two entirely different situations. You could compare 1996 to 1984, but not 2012.

nah....Mitt is Dole , he's the repub who is gonna get offered up for slaughter.

We'll see...once Labor Day hits, we will have a clearer view of events. However, once again, using history as the guide, Obama loses. If the economy improves, and (most importantly) if people believe it is improving, than Obama's chances increase dramatically.

 

[lions2011]

especially now Mittens crowing in NH he helped create 100,000 jobs when he was with Baines....lol

got busted on it today...he was gone from Baines 12 years ago and most of the job creation their has taken place in the last 5 or 6 years with Staples , Sports Authiorty and Dominos...Baines subsidiaries.

KEEP IT HONEST MITT.....the other tards in the class are starting to bust on you.

 

[tycobb420]

especially now Mittens crowing in NH he helped create 100,000 jobs when he was with Baines....lol

got busted on it today...he was gone from Baines 12 years ago and most of the job creation their has taken place in the last 5 or 6 years with Staples , Sports Authiorty and Dominos...Baines subsidiaries.

KEEP IT HONEST MITT.....the other tards in the class are starting to bust on you.

Rhetoric is rhetoric. Whatever.

 

[lions2011]

especially now Mittens crowing in NH he helped create 100,000 jobs when he was with Baines....lol

got busted on it today...he was gone from Baines 12 years ago and most of the job creation their has taken place in the last 5 or 6 years with Staples , Sports Authiorty and Dominos...Baines subsidiaries.

KEEP IT HONEST MITT.....the other tards in the class are starting to bust on you.

Rhetoric is rhetoric. Whatever.

bold faced lies get exposed in campaigns....Mitts about to get hammered on tomorrow night.