Predictions 2012

[tycobb420]

Rhetoric is rhetoric. Whatever.

bold faced lies get exposed in campaigns....Mitts about to get hammered on tomorrow night.

All candidates fudge the facts. Folks don't care. They expect it.

 

[tycobb420]

One thing looking up for O is the fact incumbents win over 60% of the time. Since 1900, the four men who lost re-election all had something working against them that doomed their efforts.

1900: McKinley-won
1904: TR-won
1908: Open seat
1912: Taft: Lost (TR's third party candidacy split the GOP vote)
1916: Wilson: Won
1920: Open seat
1924: Coolidge: Won
1928: Open Seat
1932: Hoover: Lost (Great Depression and Bonus March)
1936, 40, 44: FDR: Won
1948: Truman: won
1952: Open seat
1956: Ike: Won
1960: Open seat
1964: LBJ: Won
1968: Open seat
1972: Nixon: won
1976: Ford: Lost (Watergate pardon)
1980: Carter: Lost (Misery index, economy, Iran Hostage crisis)
1984: Reagan: won
1988: Open seat
1992: Bush: Lost (Perot candidacy split vote)
1996: Clinton: Won
2000: Open Seat
2004: Bush: Won
2008: Open seat

 

[Thumb]

1992 I don't think was really because of Perot, Clinton would have won anyways.

He was young, energetic, and charismatic, and we had just been through 12 years of old men, and of course in '96 the GOP ran out another ancient guy, Dole.

Plus you failed to mention we were in a recession that GHWB kept denying was a recession, right up until it was too late.

 

[tycobb420]

1992 I don't think was really because of Perot, Clinton would have won anyways.

He was young, energetic, and charismatic, and we had just been through 12 years of old men, and of course in '96 the GOP ran out another ancient guy, Dole.

Plus you failed to mention we were in a recession that GHWB kept denying was a recession, right up until it was too late.

The recession was actually over in 1992, but no one knew it. It ran from 1990-1991. Clinton was young and energetic, but he failed to get 50% of the vote and his constituency was different than Bush and Perot. Bush and Perot shared the same constituency.

In the end, Bill got 43%, Bush got 38%, and Perot 19%.

What's really fascinating is Clinton could not break 50% in 1996 when he should have been around 55%. Dole was not a great candidate and had no money. Dole got 41% Perot got 8%. Other candidates soaked up the rest of the vote. Without Perot in 1996, Clinton gets over 50%, but probably wins 52-48 or 53-47. Dole did amazingly well considering he had little cash.

PS: When referring to Dole's cash, he did not have money to spend between the end of the primaries and the end of conventions. Meanwhile, Clinton had a ton of cash that he used to great effect.

 

[masterscorpio77]

I am thinking that it is highly possible for the Republicans to hold on to the House, but they may take the Senate as well. As for the Presidency, I think Obama will win. I just don't believe the Candidates that are out there for the Republicans are gonna do it.