Rangers @ Tigers 5-6-2016 Game 28

[tigermud]

Game Time: 7:10
TV: Fox Sports Detroit
Forecast: Sunny, 67

Detroit (14-13)

Ian Kinsler, 2B
Mike Aviles, RF
Miguel Cabrera, 1B
Victor Martinez, DH
Justin Upton, LF
Nick Castellanos, 3B
James McCann, C
Anthony Gose, CF
Jose Iglesias, SS

P: Zimmermann 5-0 (0.55)

Rangers (15-14)

Odor, 2B
Mazara, RF
Beltre, 3B
Fielder, DH
Desmond, LF
Moreland, 1B
Andrus, SS
Wilson, C
DeShields, CF

P: Hamels 3-0 (3.30)


Game Notes

The Tigers probably would love to just forget the last three games in Cleveland, after getting swept (again) by the Tribe, via Thursday's 9-4 result. But the brightest spot on the Tigers' roster this season takes center stage tonight, as Zimmermann, the AL pitcher of the month for April, makes his sixth start of the season. He'll be opposed by fellow undefeated starter in Hamels, the veteran lefty who joined Texas via trade last season and aided its come-from-behind run to the AL West crown. The Rangers also have lost three straight, all in Toronto. This series marks the Comerica Park return of several former Tigers: Prince Fielder and Bryan Holaday -- both regulars in the lineup -- and Bobby Wilson, whom the Tigers traded back to Texas earlier this week. ... Right-handed pitcher Angel Nesbitt continued his injury-rehab assignment with Class A Lakeland on Thursday night, starting and throwing a scoreless inning with one walk and one strikeout. In two appearances with Lakeland, Nesbitt has a 5.40 ERA. He has been sidelined since March 25 with a right ankle sprain.

http://www.freep.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2016/05/06/detroit-tigers-texas-rangers/84010970/

 

[dale675]

Aviles in for JD in the 2 hole already paying dividends. I don't care if JD is 0 for 100 vs hamels. Seriously Brad?

 

[dale675]

Aviles with a nice shoestring catch in foul territory followed up by almost colliding with Kinsler for another catch. Tigers down 0-2. Bottom of the order coming up.

 

[tigermud]

2 is probebly all they'll need we all know tigers can't hit crafty lefties so I'm outta here already enjoy the rest of the shit show

 

[biggunsbob]

11 tiger k's so far and only 1 hit..

 

[kalinecountry]

Losing 3 to 0 in the 8th and only one f'n hit. Team is dead stick a fork in them. They have as much fire as ausmus.

 

[johnny2x2x]

Losing 3 to 0 in the 8th and only one f'n hit. Team is dead stick a fork in them. They have as much fire as ausmus.

About what we expected from this team. They'll struggle to win 80 games.

 

[biggunsbob]

Frustrating as all get out how freaking flat out boring this team is..no spark no nothing . No excitement.

 

[biggunsbob]

Rangers who struggle on the road get healthy in Detroitm and Tigers will fall to 5-7 at home as management still has no clue how to build a team for Comerica park.

 

[biggunsbob]

Back to .500!!!!

 

[kalinecountry]

STREAKS AND STATS:
Ian Kinsler's stolen base in the first inning marked his third of the year, and the 200th of his major league career.

The Tigers avoided being shutout for the fourth time this year on the groundout double play RBI by Cabrera.

 

[biggunsbob]

Maybe we can start 10 game winning streak Saturday! !!!

 

[Rebbiv]

The team does not walk. They strike out way too much. They make dumb base running mistakes. They ground into too many doubleplays. After Castellanos, Victor and Miggy (yes, Miggy), the Tiger hitters have been crap the last 15 games. Where is the hitting instructor in all of this?

Justin Upton has averaged 68 walks a season the last 3 years. He is on pace to walk just 17 times this year. This is the Tiger-effect.

Our starting OFers last 15 games

162 PA 3 HR 15 RBI 7 BB 48 SO .197 BAVG .235 OBP .309 SLG .544 OPS

Our starting Cs last 15 games

57 PA 1 HR 4 RBI 4 BB 24 SO .135 BAVG .211 OBP .250 SLG .461 OPS


Add the two together (4 positions)

219 PA 4 HR 19 RBI 11 BB 72 SO .181 BAVG .228 OBP .294 SLG .522 OPS 19.9 PA/BB

Horrendous strikeout to walk ratio


Add Castellanos, Victor, Miggy and Kinsler together

239 PA 10 HR 32 RBI 15 BB 38 SO .317 BAVG .360 OBP .534 SLG .894 OPS 15.9 PA/BB

DET is 11-1 when they score 5 runs or more. They are 2-10 when they give up 5 runs or more. They are 3-4 when neither team scores 5 runs or more. Recent history shows that this team wins 70% (or more) of their games by scoring 5 runs. Either you score 5 runs yourself, or you limit your opponent from scoring 5 runs.

 

[Rebbiv]

2011-2015 DET Tigers

440 Wins
311-94 (.829 WPCT) when scoring 5 runs or more
70.7% of wins are from when they score 5 runs
46.4% of games they score 5 or more runs

2016

14 Wins
11-1 (.917 WPCT) when scoring 5 runs or more
78.6% of wins are from when they score 5 runs
42.9% of games they score 5 or more runs

 

[Mitchrapp]

2011-2015 DET Tigers

440 Wins
311-94 (.829 WPCT) when scoring 5 runs or more
70.7% of wins are from when they score 5 runs
46.4% of games they score 5 or more runs

2016

14 Wins
11-1 (.917 WPCT) when scoring 5 runs or more
78.6% of wins are from when they score 5 runs
42.9% of games they score 5 or more runs

I'm sure many teams win when they score 5 runs. If that's what you're getting at. Otherwise disregard..

:cheers:

 

[Rebbiv]

I'm sure many teams win when they score 5 runs. If that's what you're getting at. Otherwise disregard..

:cheers:

Proportionally, more of their wins come when they do. 71% of their wins from 2011-2015 came when they scored at least 5. And in those games, they won 82.9% of the time.

In games where neither team scored 5 runs (29% of their wins), DET only won 51.0% of the time.

Certainly, limiting the other team from scoring 5 runs increases your odds of winning. But so does scoring 5 runs yourself. Good teams win slightly above .500 when neither team scores 5 runs. And that only happened to DET 31% of the time.

Let's put it in context:

DET 2011-2015

311-64 .829 WPCT when scoring 5 runs

129-305 .297 WPCT when DET doesn't score 5 runs


BLUF. AL average is that a team has two-thirds of their wins from games in which they score 5 runs. Whether the team is OAK, MIN or DET, their total wins will comprise of 2/3 being from when they score 5 runs.

**Teams that play in pitcher parks (i.e. SEA) can skew this data. 4 runs in a pitcher's park can be just as valuable.