Yeah, I don't think you could say that the Braves, if all goes to plan, are a top 5 team or the Twins or even the Tribe or (if you ask me) Boston etc, etc, etc.
I think for like the Twins to be a top 5 team, they'd have to get lucky, have like career years, lucky breaks, etc.
Miggy is Miggy and there is every reason to believe that finally healthy he'll break out of his "slump"
JV was for years the best pitcher in baseball, I think that doubting that he will be again is just illogical. Lots of folks talk about the age projection bullshit don't understand it. It doesn't mean that a player suddenly becomes garbage at 31, but that the normal player declines, and all players to some degree do. BUT, great talents overcome the obstacle of age (as V-Mart did at 35 for the best year of his career, as other great baseball talents, like Miggy JV are, have done in the past); in fact, I would expect to see two trends emerge in the next few years on aging in baseball: (1) we're going to see younger players explode more, there will still be the majority that follow the usual development, but there will be more Trout-types, but those players will tapper off early. (B) the ability of older players to continue to be effective thanks to advances in training, etc.; some of the players that explode by 23, plateau at 28-32, will have resurgence 33-38.
Now again, there will always be the normal route that will remain the same, and the freaks that are just great year in year out.
So, Miggy being Miggy seems pretty likely, he seems due for an injury light or free year.
JV has always been durable, and is healthy and back, he's a competitive dude and will be out to prove something like he has never been out to prove his ability before. His top velocity that so many said was gone forever returned (as was the only logical expectation), but he's learned to pitch effectively as hell without it. How can he not be even better than before with both wily veteran skills and precision along with the ability to rear back and throw 100mph on the 117th pitch? (Something he seems able to do again.)
Sanchez's collapse was too abrupt to be real and permanent, his shoulder issues suggest he had a nagging injury that impacted last season. He'\ has tweaked his off season work out to help with durability down the stretch. Big bounce back year seems fairly likely, statistically he should tend back towards the mean, projections calling it the other way are simply illogically and misunderstand aging.
Zimmermann's arm is worrying, but medical cleared him and there is no indication of problems, the Nats were an unmitigated disaster and Max (I know folks like him) is a freaking cancer or at least a bit of a jerk. The culture of that team was bad, lots of guys underperformed, Zimm might have been dragged down by a bad club house and bad treatment by the team and bad play by his players. What I saw of them and him last year suggests this. Could be wrong, but logically it seems more likely than TJ2. Logically, a bounce back or at least return to the norm seems likely.
Pelfrey, really there is at best the hope that he is better than Simon (the Tigers steady starter all season! How can people not think this team is going to be MUCH better?).
Norris has the stuff and attitude, he had a 3.66 era in his rookie campaign while battling multiple injuries. Durability is a factor, but rookies often take a few years to build up the MLB workload. There is every reason to believe that he will at least hold that ERA and probably push it lower. He has the talent, the athleticism, and most of all he has the right makeup.
Greene (the #6 starter at this point) was good in his rookie campaign, brilliant to start year two then struggled, logically it seems likely that the injury was a significant cause of that. He was a high 3s ERA, no reason to think he can't be that good or better when he gets his chances.
The pen:
K-Rod has been effective with his altered approach I wouldn't bet against the 34 year old keep that train rolling for at least another year probably 4 more. There seems little reason to doubt that.
Lowe had some down the stretch issues after his new off season workout change. This season he'll either solidify that work and improve somewhat or be replaced by J. Wilson and A. Wilson both of whom are young, but with enough innings to begin to be relievers that you can rely on, their best years are ahead of them.
Hardy looks pretty darn for real as well. But it is a bit early to lock that down.
Verhagen, like Hardy, has to build on what he did, but he is probably as good or better than anyone but Soria in the Tigers pen to start last year.
Rondon tons of talent might listen to his countryman K-Rod, who might help him get it together.
Back up pitchers this year are better than last year. Greene, obviously (he was a starter), Boyd is better than Lober, Fulmer maybe not yet, but perhaps half-way through the season, and Ryan and Farmer are still around.
The pen backups only Nesbit and Rondon are holdovers, Farmer is slated for the pen, Fulmer might get a crack at it, and there are other options, most as good or better than last year.
Depth, depth, depth
The starting CFer for most of last year is the 4th OFer this year.
Upton is better than Cespedes (2 monster years, 1 mediocre year, and 1 good year have been over hyped, and f his gold glove). Hitting in front of Miggy should give Upton a hell of a year. He had a rough year last year, seems likely to be finally in a good situation, logically, upper projections make more sense.
V-Mart is healthy, will he struggle? maybe, but probably not, plenty of aging hitters have continued to have success at his age. But that success is also injury riddled. Logically, a man one year removed form a career year should be expected to have a significant bounce back after a mess like last year. Victor has a lot of pride, he'll want to make up for last year. That is why Ilitch paid him so well. He knew his character. (Not saying that it was a good contract only that I understood it.)
JD, I would not bet against him being even better yet. Logically he seems likely to stand pat, folks calling for regression just love stats too much and don't understand or pay enough attention to actual baseball.
Gose will be chasing Maybin and Maybin was on track for a pretty good year last year, he should do that again, his change to his swing was paying dividends and should continue to. They are both motivated and will drive each other. Good for the Tigers.
Kinsler is going to keep being Kinsler for several years, he is due for an injury though... But logically, barring that, he is going to hit .280+, with a .350OBP, knock in 10-15 HRs, 70ish RBIs, play at Gold Glove (true Gold Glove) caliber. Logically there is no reason to doubt that.
Miggy is an underrated defender, lots of people will realize that his year.
Iglesias tired down the stretch, but is likely to be looking to prove somethings to folks, lots of slights have come his way, he can't love that. Logically he is a light hitting, high average, high OBP hitter with Gold Glove caliber ability. This year that is what he will be.
Castellanos' offense was actually underrated last year. Most are predicting some kind of uptick, logically he finished 2015 on a good note and it seems like that he will continue to improve in 2016. Dig into his numbers and reasons for lots of optimism emerge.
McCann isn't the greatest hitter, but he is a great fielding catcher who has something to learn about game calling and some of the finer points of MLB catching, but he is smart, has a skipper who was a good MLB catcher, and seems very likely to build on last year. Hopefully Salty will provide a little heat to motivate.
Salty might stink, but he should compliment McCann and he has some motivation to step up.
Romine is in a contract year and is an underrated talent, look into his numbers watch him play, he is good. He might have a heck of a year from the bench.
Mike Aviles as Anthony Fenech has noted is a glue guy. But he also just might surprise some folks.
Tigers have a more seasoned Machado to call on if they need him, ditto Collins. Lot more depth to this team this year than last. Injuries shouldn't destroy them like they did last year; although last year was ridiculous: Lost V-Mart for awhile, lost their closer on day one, lost Greene early, Alex Avila for a while, JV for half of the year, Miggy for a while, Norris for a while, Alex Wilson had to be shut down for a little bit, lost Rondon for a while, Sanchez for a while, Iggy for a while, #6 starter for a while. Their playing wounded were Miggy all season, Sanchez until he got shut down, Simon for most of the season (supposedly), V-Mart all season, Rajai Davis, Iggy (I doubt he was 100% after the first couple of months his first step was weak and he was slower, sitting on a couch for a year robbed him of his speed and endurance down the stretch). Then of course the fire sale.
Maybe I'm wrong but these injuries seem a bit much. Multiple top players were out for extended periods of time. Then their back ups got exposed.
Logically, the Tigers seem likely to bounce back rather than regress.
They've had some bad luck with injuries the past few seasons, they are now first built to better absorb them and second due for a year of less of them.
I think for like the Twins to be a top 5 team, they'd have to get lucky, have like career years, lucky breaks, etc.
Miggy is Miggy and there is every reason to believe that finally healthy he'll break out of his "slump"
JV was for years the best pitcher in baseball, I think that doubting that he will be again is just illogical. Lots of folks talk about the age projection bullshit don't understand it. It doesn't mean that a player suddenly becomes garbage at 31, but that the normal player declines, and all players to some degree do. BUT, great talents overcome the obstacle of age (as V-Mart did at 35 for the best year of his career, as other great baseball talents, like Miggy JV are, have done in the past); in fact, I would expect to see two trends emerge in the next few years on aging in baseball: (1) we're going to see younger players explode more, there will still be the majority that follow the usual development, but there will be more Trout-types, but those players will tapper off early. (B) the ability of older players to continue to be effective thanks to advances in training, etc.; some of the players that explode by 23, plateau at 28-32, will have resurgence 33-38.
Now again, there will always be the normal route that will remain the same, and the freaks that are just great year in year out.
So, Miggy being Miggy seems pretty likely, he seems due for an injury light or free year.
JV has always been durable, and is healthy and back, he's a competitive dude and will be out to prove something like he has never been out to prove his ability before. His top velocity that so many said was gone forever returned (as was the only logical expectation), but he's learned to pitch effectively as hell without it. How can he not be even better than before with both wily veteran skills and precision along with the ability to rear back and throw 100mph on the 117th pitch? (Something he seems able to do again.)
Sanchez's collapse was too abrupt to be real and permanent, his shoulder issues suggest he had a nagging injury that impacted last season. He'\ has tweaked his off season work out to help with durability down the stretch. Big bounce back year seems fairly likely, statistically he should tend back towards the mean, projections calling it the other way are simply illogically and misunderstand aging.
Zimmermann's arm is worrying, but medical cleared him and there is no indication of problems, the Nats were an unmitigated disaster and Max (I know folks like him) is a freaking cancer or at least a bit of a jerk. The culture of that team was bad, lots of guys underperformed, Zimm might have been dragged down by a bad club house and bad treatment by the team and bad play by his players. What I saw of them and him last year suggests this. Could be wrong, but logically it seems more likely than TJ2. Logically, a bounce back or at least return to the norm seems likely.
Pelfrey, really there is at best the hope that he is better than Simon (the Tigers steady starter all season! How can people not think this team is going to be MUCH better?).
Norris has the stuff and attitude, he had a 3.66 era in his rookie campaign while battling multiple injuries. Durability is a factor, but rookies often take a few years to build up the MLB workload. There is every reason to believe that he will at least hold that ERA and probably push it lower. He has the talent, the athleticism, and most of all he has the right makeup.
Greene (the #6 starter at this point) was good in his rookie campaign, brilliant to start year two then struggled, logically it seems likely that the injury was a significant cause of that. He was a high 3s ERA, no reason to think he can't be that good or better when he gets his chances.
The pen:
K-Rod has been effective with his altered approach I wouldn't bet against the 34 year old keep that train rolling for at least another year probably 4 more. There seems little reason to doubt that.
Lowe had some down the stretch issues after his new off season workout change. This season he'll either solidify that work and improve somewhat or be replaced by J. Wilson and A. Wilson both of whom are young, but with enough innings to begin to be relievers that you can rely on, their best years are ahead of them.
Hardy looks pretty darn for real as well. But it is a bit early to lock that down.
Verhagen, like Hardy, has to build on what he did, but he is probably as good or better than anyone but Soria in the Tigers pen to start last year.
Rondon tons of talent might listen to his countryman K-Rod, who might help him get it together.
Back up pitchers this year are better than last year. Greene, obviously (he was a starter), Boyd is better than Lober, Fulmer maybe not yet, but perhaps half-way through the season, and Ryan and Farmer are still around.
The pen backups only Nesbit and Rondon are holdovers, Farmer is slated for the pen, Fulmer might get a crack at it, and there are other options, most as good or better than last year.
Depth, depth, depth
The starting CFer for most of last year is the 4th OFer this year.
Upton is better than Cespedes (2 monster years, 1 mediocre year, and 1 good year have been over hyped, and f his gold glove). Hitting in front of Miggy should give Upton a hell of a year. He had a rough year last year, seems likely to be finally in a good situation, logically, upper projections make more sense.
V-Mart is healthy, will he struggle? maybe, but probably not, plenty of aging hitters have continued to have success at his age. But that success is also injury riddled. Logically, a man one year removed form a career year should be expected to have a significant bounce back after a mess like last year. Victor has a lot of pride, he'll want to make up for last year. That is why Ilitch paid him so well. He knew his character. (Not saying that it was a good contract only that I understood it.)
JD, I would not bet against him being even better yet. Logically he seems likely to stand pat, folks calling for regression just love stats too much and don't understand or pay enough attention to actual baseball.
Gose will be chasing Maybin and Maybin was on track for a pretty good year last year, he should do that again, his change to his swing was paying dividends and should continue to. They are both motivated and will drive each other. Good for the Tigers.
Kinsler is going to keep being Kinsler for several years, he is due for an injury though... But logically, barring that, he is going to hit .280+, with a .350OBP, knock in 10-15 HRs, 70ish RBIs, play at Gold Glove (true Gold Glove) caliber. Logically there is no reason to doubt that.
Miggy is an underrated defender, lots of people will realize that his year.
Iglesias tired down the stretch, but is likely to be looking to prove somethings to folks, lots of slights have come his way, he can't love that. Logically he is a light hitting, high average, high OBP hitter with Gold Glove caliber ability. This year that is what he will be.
Castellanos' offense was actually underrated last year. Most are predicting some kind of uptick, logically he finished 2015 on a good note and it seems like that he will continue to improve in 2016. Dig into his numbers and reasons for lots of optimism emerge.
McCann isn't the greatest hitter, but he is a great fielding catcher who has something to learn about game calling and some of the finer points of MLB catching, but he is smart, has a skipper who was a good MLB catcher, and seems very likely to build on last year. Hopefully Salty will provide a little heat to motivate.
Salty might stink, but he should compliment McCann and he has some motivation to step up.
Romine is in a contract year and is an underrated talent, look into his numbers watch him play, he is good. He might have a heck of a year from the bench.
Mike Aviles as Anthony Fenech has noted is a glue guy. But he also just might surprise some folks.
Tigers have a more seasoned Machado to call on if they need him, ditto Collins. Lot more depth to this team this year than last. Injuries shouldn't destroy them like they did last year; although last year was ridiculous: Lost V-Mart for awhile, lost their closer on day one, lost Greene early, Alex Avila for a while, JV for half of the year, Miggy for a while, Norris for a while, Alex Wilson had to be shut down for a little bit, lost Rondon for a while, Sanchez for a while, Iggy for a while, #6 starter for a while. Their playing wounded were Miggy all season, Sanchez until he got shut down, Simon for most of the season (supposedly), V-Mart all season, Rajai Davis, Iggy (I doubt he was 100% after the first couple of months his first step was weak and he was slower, sitting on a couch for a year robbed him of his speed and endurance down the stretch). Then of course the fire sale.
Maybe I'm wrong but these injuries seem a bit much. Multiple top players were out for extended periods of time. Then their back ups got exposed.
Logically, the Tigers seem likely to bounce back rather than regress.
They've had some bad luck with injuries the past few seasons, they are now first built to better absorb them and second due for a year of less of them.
